Thanks for an interesting and informative post Brfc
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Thanks for an interesting and informative post Brfc
This forum may be small but it is perfectly formed and so much better than Hotcopper.
Bought heavily earlier on in the week, glad I got in at that price. Still looking to add more onto this, based on what's happening. It's going to be long and drawn out but the demand side will always be there in the long term.
Interesting times in the investing side, alot of people selling out quickly. Peoples time horizons must be incredibly short, I'm in for the long term but even if you're in for 10 years, you should be okay with what's happening.
Everyone getting the virus quickly is not a good thing for the markets, economy or humanity. No matter how you frame it we cannot let that happen. We don't know how long our immune antibodies will last against this particular virus, it could be forever or just months. Imagine if 50% of the population gets it with millions of deaths and we don't even develop long lasting immunity. Going for a rapid burn out or herd immunity solution will be devastating, millions of people will die and health systems would be completely overrun, imagine the chaos in poorer less developed nations.
A full scale lock-down is the only way to beat this, fortunately for NZ and OCA we appear to be flattening the curve with 3 consecutive days of slowing growth and that's not even allowing enough time to take into account the impact of the L4 lockdown. If tomorrows numbers are down again on today's I suspect OCA SP will close higher. OCA at $0.40 was pricing in a US equivalent disaster and fortunately we've had strong leadership who've been able to make the pragmatic scientific based decision to lock-down quickly. I suspect as long as we can maintain low local spread and return to BAU slowly maintaining strict boarder measures OCA will be just fine and the SP will soon return to $1+.