If you joined together you would make a Team Pergle or Beaper, a Perbea or a Gleper:D
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If you joined together you would make a Team Pergle or Beaper, a Perbea or a Gleper:D
Percy - I thought I was pretty brave topping-up yesterday at $1.82...had to take a deep breath and think long term, five years down the track to pay that but when you start thinking long term the current price is still a compelling opportunity on a sensible PE compared to the vast majority of other stocks on the NZX. Steady growth is the key here. Yes agreed, I don't often post what I am doing in real time for exactly the reason you pointed out.
All time high ........awesome
Even more awesome when it hits 2 bucks ....before the end of the month ......before the announcement? Or after?
Yes thinking five to ten years out,makes you see things a bit differently.
Over the past 10 years we have seen outstanding performances of companies "doing what they say they will do."
OK the likes of AIA and POT have huge moats around them,but others such as,,EBO FPH,FRE, MFT,and RYM have succeeded by having outstanding leadership,and directors with a lot of "skin in the game.".When MFT listed it was just another trucking firm.EBO was just a very small medical supply firm.Yet we now see them trading on PEs of between 21[EBO] and 24 {MFT].RYM were bringing a new approach to a very poorly rated sector?!!!
So although today we may think HBL is fully priced,the market appears to be looking further ahead than us.
ps.In real time I am neither a buyer or seller,just a happy dividend collector.
This is a dangerous mind-state to fall into.
Those that do valuations properly have looked in the future, determined likely growth, made allowance for different possible scenarios and come up with a value which is less than the current market price.
Buying at a price now because you hope that value will catch up in a few years is not an astute purchase.
It is nearly as bad as coming up with 'novel' valuation techniques to try and justify over paying for a stock.
Meanwhile the share price continues the relentless climb and long may it continue, except for a sudden dramatic, but temporary, drop during DRiP price calculation time.
:)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Yes mate you pay BIG BIG money for moat's on the NZX with the likes of AIA and POT trading well over a PE of 30 last time I looked....too rich for my liking as is FPH.
Better off combing through the quality well managed companies trading on a sensible PE with their own niche, lots more upside potential over the years ahead.
Last time I crunched the numbers HBL trading on a FY18 prospective PE in the late 13's seems very reasonably priced by comparison to the market overall and to its peer group by virtue of its superior growth rate and of course we know the Australian Govt in its "infinite wisdom" has just handed the Australian banks a special tax.
Just looking at an add for a Holden Colorado with finance at 1% from HBL.
Establishment fees of $656.That fee appears to be the highest that i have seen from various financing options.
Some ones making money somewhere.
anyone have any thoughts on what is likely to happen re the share price around the election?
HBL makes up 80% of my portfolio and I will need to cash it in soon to help fund something else, although realistically I probably dont need it until early next year. If I could hang on to all my shares I'd be quite happy to be honest as the divvies are good (no DRP for me, I like cold hard cash :) )
Not sure I'd expect the election (no matter which way it goes) to make a big dent into HBL's share price - unless we draw the alleged link to the dairy market (not sure I am convinced, but some are) and assume that an all out victory for Green would crash our dairy industry.
Obviously - if the election outcome is leading into long negotiations and an unstable minority government (which is a distinct possibility), than all NZX shares (including HBL) are likely to suffer.
Independent from elections and HBL's specific expected performance - if you know that you need the money at a specified point in time (and that's months, not years), than I know what I would do: sell out soon and put the money you need early next year into a bank account. Sure - you might miss out on a 10% appreciation, but you might as well miss out on a 20% drop. Could you live with the latter?
I am an ex retailer.Both toys and books.Retail was usually better under Labour governments.So HBL will continue to prosper under which ever party wins the election.
NZ has had very stable governments under Helen Clark,John Key/Bill English,so I don't see either party would change things a great deal.
Now 80% of your portfolio in HBL is too greater risk in my opinion, espicially when you will be requiring that money shortly.
If it were me I would sell half now.
Yes I have to admit to leaning towards dropping down on half of my HBL l and just putting in my Heartland bank account. When I first got my share account I was 99% in Heartland Percy. I've since diversified a little bit! :)
I will wait to see what next monday brings probably. I have a good tolerance for risk and while I'd hate to see the share price shaved by 20% it wouldnt stress me majorly... (it would make me kick myself though) Yes, I am rather foolhardy.
VIX in the U.S. is at an all time low or very close too that. U.S. markets seem to be in a sweet spot with the recent round of profit reporting on an average basis being comfortably ahead of analyst expectations and economy growing at a nice steady pace of 2-2.5% which is good for the economy and doesn't put any untoward inflation risks or pressure into the system, (similar conditions here). Interest rates both long and short term remain at or very close to generational lows in the U.S., N.Z. and in many other parts of the world.
HBL on a FY18 forward PE of approx. 14 against a market average of circa 20. It would take a really major exogenous shock to wipe 20% of HBL's SP in my opinion and while you can never say never and there is no such thing as risk free I think the risk of that happening is VERY VERY low. The path of least resistance appears to be a slow and steady melt upwards and I expect that to continue for the foreseeable future. HBL now about fair value in my opinion but compared to many parts of the rest of the market much of which is VERY fully priced it remains a compelling long term hold. It wouldn't surprise me if it did get to $2 a lot sooner than I had anticipated a little earlier in this thread.
Now that's an interesting post Roger and a bit 'out there' for you. It says you look at the macro global situation and extrapolate that to local circumstances. Nice, as they unfortunately are inextricably interlinked. I reckon the whole house of cards is more vulnerable than at any time in history, and with our house on the vulnerable end of the whipping hose it's likely that the macro effect will be excentuated here more than most elsewhere. I wouldn't go anywhere near a bank in a topping market, let alone a second tier bank or a finance company in this environment (being nice). 20% downside is a heartbeat away when it turns to custard, you and we already know that, like many of our over priced companies, this is as vulnerable as it had ever been to a reversal in sentiment - and as you say connected to international sentiment, not just local. Well positioned, yeah right, positioned for what outcome?
I was topping up as recently as last Thursday at $1.82 so I am sure it won't come as a surprise to you Baa Baa that I completely disagree with you and am more than happy to back my own judgement of the risks and rewards.
Interesting Beagle. So is this from Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/95808118-...6-93fb352ba1fe
Sorry this has little to do with HBL but thought I'd post it anyway.
HBL dropped 20% 2 years ago without a major shock. Sure, dairy prices were low but the bank consistently reported increasing profits throughout. I wouldn't consider it particularly unlikely for there to be another 20% drawback in the next few months personally and certainly wouldn't stick 80% of a portfolio I expected to need to take money from shortly in a single stock.
disc: I sold out at 1.78 back in May and the rest of my portfolio has performed better than HBL in the meantime.
You seem to be a bit of a sour sheep these days BB.
I thought you were one of the trendy sheeps who would be happy as what with the SP going up and up and up.
Surely all we all have to do is sell on the break without shedding wool over the when, why & how?
Easy peasy and the only way to do it.
The DRiP looks less enticing by the day.
BW
PT (hyt)
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I sat out the dairy crisis as my perception was that those two years or so were a period of time when the systemic risks from that sector to the HBL balance sheet were too high. I don't see anything like the risk that existed at that time.