Originally Posted by
Ogg
lol. I literally can't at the moment. I'm in a new house with no desktop. Some of my longer posts can take a few hours and doing this on a tablet is hard enough.
We can rule out a takeover by Infrtail tomorrow as they haven't created a takeover entity on the NZ Companies website. It's possible Discovery could put in an offer but it does seem weird that they buy Mediaworks on Monday then wait until Thursday to buy Sky. But then again maybe that does make sense, ie do it all in the same week and then submit the same application to the ComCom the following week. If Discovery does make a move and Infratil doesn't make a competing bid then I'll be pissed as I know Brooksfield would have done an inside deal with Discovery (as Brooksfield are the owners of mediaworks, not Oaktree as falsely reported everywhere).
Over the coming days I've kinda shifted my thought that maybe a takeover now isn't the best outcome for shareholders. The stock has only just started to turn the corner and now is in the spotlight again with investors. A takeover here, even at 35c could be seriously undervaluing Sky over the medium term. Sky's streaming business does seem to be gaining traction and satellite churn has stabilized. The kicker really is the clean balance sheet, thus allowing for the resumption of dividends. It seems like nothing but blue sky from here on in.
Having siad all that. I do have a large position and at times have questions my own investment philosophy. The temptation to sell and lock in profits is high. If the stock does jump to 30c it's gonna put me in a difficult situation. I have a tendency to sell too early. Mostly because I usually hold specy stocks. But Sky is different, it's a value stock that has proven itself over time to delivery on dividends, obliviously, not over the last 5 years tho, but that is what the turn around story is all about.
I won't be selling tomorrow. Unless I see an obvious Sharesies pump above 40c - which just won't happen. I'm thinking that the stock will probably only hit 20c before we start to see heavy selling from legacy investors trying to get out. What this stock really needs is more broker recommendation and more institutional buying from overseas. This will take time.
Best of luck to everyone tomorrow. Remember it's only money. Win or lose life goes on.