Originally Posted by
Raz
Investors looking forward know AIR has had a golden period of limited competition on some sectors which is now changing. Share price is just as much about future fundamentals vs current, in addition to market sentiment. It is already partly priced into the share price with uncertainty showing.
Current Fundamentals - sure historical trading has been extraordinary as they have benefit from lack of competition on some key sectors, as an example - AUC to LAX, sector prices rose on average $300-400 across that period after the loss of competition, a licence to print money. They have gained from monopolistic pricing however it can created whiplash when that time comes to an end, as many business case studies show. AIR naturally has diversified from the opportunity into new sectors yet the results are too early. More uncertainty. They may come through it well yet uncertainty on that plays out for now.
A higher than expected dividend is already the expectation..we wait to see on that one.
I was in Wellington last week where all the talk was about the overall multiplier effect of the loss of export income on the wider economy..more uncertainty yet the media is just talking about Dairy in isolation for now, so more to play out yet on that. That is before you take a world view...
To me there is no surprise with the current fundamentals disconnect with share price as it all in transition = uncertainty.