CDY... ( Cellmid ).... any thoughts ? .... Do they hold PEB shares, whats the connection ? Will there S/P rise with PEB. ?
Need to do some research, but if any one has facts, or a opinion they would share.... Thanks in advance
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CDY... ( Cellmid ).... any thoughts ? .... Do they hold PEB shares, whats the connection ? Will there S/P rise with PEB. ?
Need to do some research, but if any one has facts, or a opinion they would share.... Thanks in advance
I'm also a shareholder in Cdy but a very poor performing stock at this stage, they got issued milestone shares in PEB at approx .63c but my understanding is they have sold those. They get paid 2 percent royalty on what PEB sells.
Wonder how genuine the wall at 1.75 is? Big players usually don't show their hands like that unless they're trying to accumulate below that price.
I always hope that a bigger player snaps them all up in one swoop to p!ss them off.
Having missed the boat 3 or 4 times with Wynyard Group (completely annoying), an announcement around now for PEB would be nice. Let's call it "The Wynyard Effect" for arguments sake.
PEB to $3 on next announcement.
TA/Charting:
This time last year its sp dipped to 2c, then it spiked and last July dipped to 2.5c, and after spiking to 5c last November has dropped away to trade today at another dip at around 3c.
RSI is rising, and not a bad idea to get in while the price is low. If PEB has an upside, so will CDY.
Fundamentals:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2013112...qbb8b041qf.pdf
FY12/13 : $1m in PEB-related revenue alone (could this be a sale of shares?), royalties expected from 2Q14.
Also develops and markets many other cancer detection products (see page 15), hair loss prevention (p 19) and cancer therapeutics (e.g. Midkine antibody to slow tumour growth - see p 9-12).
Any idea of upcoming announcements? Can't wait for the NZX50 inclusion but anything before then would be a bonus.
Normally I'm quite patient but the constant stream of news from WYN just makes me slightly more anxious than normal. I'll continue holding both and get back to work.
If you are looking for something to ease your mind and reduce your anxiety try reading this entire thread , if you haven't already.
Probable announcements
March : inclusion in nzx50 - highly likely
May : FY13 update on sales - some decent numbers at last - maybe
Aug: medicare medicade - perhaps earlier
Hangin there buddy
Cheers
Minerbarejet
There’s been lots of interesting speculation lately in regard to likely announcement dates, personally I don’t think the timing really matters, it makes no specific difference if you are a long term follower and investor in PEB.
We should anticipate a healthy but random distribution of good news throughout the entire five year plan, but some seem to think something is imminent, maybe it is, maybe not.
HMO advice from the 2013 capital raising presentation:
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/183827.pdf
“Pacific Edge is targeting large, integrated healthcare providers (such as Kaiser Permanente and Intermountain) ….. These integrated healthcare providers are targeted to be strategic partners for Pacific Edge – discussions have commenced between Pacific Edge and various integrated healthcare providers, however it is anticipated that these negotiations could take 12 months”
Medicare advice from Chis Swann ODT 28th December 2013: http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...-edge-business
“Mr Swann welcomed Obamacare as ‘an opportunity’, but the legislative changes meant Pacific Edge had to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, but he hopes it will be through early in 2014”
I suspect as with all government bureaucracy that Medicare accreditation may drag out until all those civil servants decide they feel they have been adequately wined and dined enough so as to find their rubber stamps.
Really need an announcement ....even a no news one .just a rave with a millions and zillions mentioned
At this rate the NZX might change their mind who to put in the 50 .....at the rate they are going SLI and WYN could be contenders ......they are winning the good news race
B_E, you asked re technicals a few days ago.
looks like a bullish pennant forming once again on the daily, which should lead to topside breakout
not much to go on really, but most standard indicators remain positive
discl: holding, and do not provide money back guarantees
Yes, you are right.
'To rank securities for consideration for the index it is necessary to consider the NZ
Free Float Market Capitalisation of each security, which is calculated from the “NZ Free
Float Shares”.'
There are also liquidity considerations as well which are calculated with median and mean values over the past 6 months. So some of us might be treating this a bit too simplistically.
So how will this NZX50 listing affect the stock? You'd think with the likelihood of it happening people would hold and wait right?
But the depth looks like a lot of people unloading from 1.70 to 1.80... Or maybe they are expecting it to rise up in anticipation and then drop off after the hype dies down?
Stocks do not go up in a straight line - especially stocks not researched by the conventional analysts.
If you notice, PEB has tended to gap - ie. move up or down in sizeable moves.
All those looking to unload at $1.70 to $1.80 are looking to play the big price movements, rather than the cent by cent.
I remember wall to wall selling at 55c to 60c when PEB was trending down towards 50c. Those who got taken out probably were happy (they made nice profits) but those who bought off them are ecstatic!
Strong buying today....picked up more earlier in the week.
Amazingly resilient stock.
The depth has balanced. Nice statement of intent slapped down at 1.70.
240,262 wanted between 3 buyers.
C'mon PEB, make an announcement
Even if it is that the kits are now available on Amazon ......that'll add a buck to the shareprice
No news ......ignominy on the horizon .....and your status as a growth stock and market darling will die
Winner69 can you give up your relentless daily requests for empty news. Go for a long walk around the block.
Interesting that even at a near record share price, we have only seen two shareholder disclosure notices. David Darling selling 80,000 shares and Harbour selling around 500,000 shares. With reasonably high turnover and a well supported shareprice, it seems most of the larger sharholders and people associated with the company are holding on.
It all seems to be in the future Barney doesn’t it, well managed, leading science in a growing sector, further products in the pipeline awaiting cashflow, not overvalued, potentially exceptional margin's, profitability on the horizon, seems the market agree's that it would be hard to find a reason to sell.
Slow day today - only 2k in the 1st half hour
Am I alone or does it always just seem peculiar to others also when some choose to correlate a company like PEB with some of the volatile tech stocks on the NZX.
Robust forward business strategy and announced financial goals, versus, volatile speculative growth and little guidance.
Ahh, but then see, the fact that you have just chosen PS as a metric for PEB in itself highlights an opportunity for you Moosie to apply some improved differentiation.
One can apply much better analysis for PEB as more forward information and financial goals are available, a lesser metric like PS is not required.
Although I do agree that PS, albeit as a coarse and often inaccurate metric, is often all that is available for companies which are less financially forecast, like many early phase tech stocks.
From an FA standing at least the difference between PEB and your tech stocks is bold and clear.
Yes agree biotechs have been volatile but when you have a premium product and more to come plus the unfortunate situation of cancer not going away any time soon PEB may have a solid future.
It's a 'market of stocks' as much as it's a 'stock market' and each company is different.
Valuing biotech companies seems to require a lot of research, most of us are not doctors or technicians and the potential of the technology can take some time to assess. Once comfortable with that, the fundamental valuation methods commonly applied are really not too much different from other types of companies.
Below are some links which I’ve found useful for biotechnology analysis and valuation over the last 18 months, happy to share with others.
http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_CA/c...42f00aRCRD.htm
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...hvaluation.asp
Let's get some sales then we can sort out what we have with PEB.
The MC at the moment has Millions of revenue built into the SP.
Peb held up well today finishing at $1.68 compared to most of the market
When can we expect the next announcement from PEB?
When you least expect it. Holding
The only one we can expect with any certainty will be Full Year at the end of May and the Half Year in November, the rest could be anywhere, anytime, suddenly when you least expect it and out of the blue. Great! Signs of a company playing its cards very close to its chest. No cats out of the bag here.
Companies need to take care that they release appropriate news to the market. This allows Moosie's trading strategies to run their course without any undue interference.
The FY report came out in June last year with a preamble out in late May. Expect the same this year. Anything else will be for milestones acheived, significant contracts won, profit warnings, or anything else which may distort the market in favour of those that hold priveledged information.
I was just reading this:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11178639
And quote:
"Swann welcomed Obama-care, but the legislative changes mean Pacific Edge has to wait longer and make changes to gain CMS accreditation, though he is hopeful it will be through early next year."
Hey klid remember that article was at the end last year so he refers it early this year the changes to meet the requirement.
The longer the price sits at these levels the more I'm buying
Fundamental preoccupation will prevent you chaps seeing the technical signals to buy or sell. I sold out 10 days ago when the RSI broke 90% (which is very high). It's now just under 70%, with support confirmed at 160c but with a head and shoulder pattern producing resistance just south of 170c.
DJIA and S&P500 charting also of course come into play.
One sound strategy is to buy in at 160/161c but with a stop loss at 157/158c (putting very little capital at risk for the potential benefit of already being on the wave to ride when there's an announcement).
An alternative strategy is to wait until after an Equity market sell off (and mild panic) takes PEB's sp under 160c, through its stop losses, and down to test a psychological support level around 150c.
A third strategy is to continue to hold (if in fact you are) watching a bit nervously any slide, hoping that it's not long before it (eventually) turns upward again.
Anyone care to propose another strategy?
BC
Sorry yes should have mentioned, so it's early this year, which could be any day I guess, but I don't recall this event being mentioned when people were speculating about what the next announcement might be.
I tried trading this, bought about 1.42 and then sold and re-bought in 1.sixties but will just hold it instead of playing around now.. don't want to miss any boats!
Here's a much better strategy;
Don’t sell at all, the DOW is already 4.2% into probably what’s a routine 5-10% correction and with that sort of advice some would probably just end up putting their non tax paying status at risk through attempting to be a little too cute following short term squiggly lines on a chart, …., it’s just not worth it.
The risks are higher not holding than holding a well managed company on the cusp of progressively delivering ten years of research and development by some very smart people.
If your intent was a long term hold at time of purchase and you sell then buy back more shares at a cheaper price putting all the money back in I don't see any tax issue in the remote chance you were checked otherwise you would in effect paying double tax when you sell them again at any price higher in the future, if you sell and buy back cheaper but buy the same number of shares back banking the increase gained then you have realized the profit and that would have a tax status once again depends on your intent at time of purchase but I think you can see the difference in the above scenarios,agree with your general sentiment regarding this particular stock though,risky to play around with expect news at any time.
If you intent was to hold long term then that is what you should do. Hold long term, no ifs ands buts maybes or any other shenanigans. If you sell, then buy back, you are trading and liable for tax. If you want to stuff about with this share perhaps you should get a large holding and put it in a separate account, designate it as a long term hold and buy a few others to muck about with in a trading account. You might be surprised how quickly the trading account members find their way into the long term account.:)
Cheers
I'm just wondering about people looking at Technical analysis of a stock like PEB. It seems to me that technical analysis is only derived from activity surrounding the fundamentals of a stock anyway. At the moment the perceived strength of the support of this stock is driven by its potential for sales/new agreements (which is a fundamental characteristic) . The most volatile movements in share price increases and decreases are those driven primarily by announcements concerning the fundamentals regarding the business in question. In other words there seems to me to be a certain relationship between fundamental investors looking to time the market using technical analysis but very little relationship between technical analysis using fundamentals to drive their bids because of the reactionary position technicals have in the market. ? While this may seem long-winded it seems a valid point in my humble opinion.
Agree with a lot of what you are saying here but recapitilsation of profit by buying back more PEB or any other share for that matter would not have a tax liability for the reason of eventually paying tax twice or more times on the same money if you get my drift
Couta - IF you are a trader EACH trade incurs a tax liability.
So a 1000 PEB bought at 100 and sold at 200 is a profit of 1000 (taxable income IF a trader - TRADE #1
Using the 2000 proceeds to buy say another 2000 at 100 and then sell at 200 is a profit of 2000 and IF trader taxable income - TRADE #2
2trades - profit and taxable income 3000
No double taxation here if you get my drift
But if not a trader all this doesn't matter .... Just 'recapitalize' to your hearts content
I am not so sure about this "recapitalising"
If you sell on dips and buy on peaks (incrementally increasing your holding because you reinvesting the full $amount), you are, each time you sell, making a gain over your purchase price.
If done well, you could double your holding and yet the sp is the same has the original smaller purchase.
Surely after you have done it a couple of times, you then have to be able to justify each time why you have sold so quickly, considering the preceding purchase had been for the purpose of a long term hold.
It's ok to sell because you need the money, or because you changed your opinion on the company, or you sell some because you are overweight, but those arguments demonstrate themselves to be wrong if you subsequently buy again, don't they?
I can see that you can sell because you need the money, then decide not to buy that car after all, and reinvest, but how often can you do that?
I think were probably getting into this unanswerable murky Grey area again,the main test applied by IRD is Are you in the BUSINESS of share trading or not so making lots of transactions for various reasons is not being in the business of share trading so Winner is correct in what he says above re recapitalization, each must make their own mind up,of course if labour get in and bring in a capital gains tax then then the game will change in that everyone will pay tax on any profit obtained upon sale the only difference being then that those in the BUSINESS of share trading will be able to claim expenses and the rest wont,in some ways I favor a CGT as long as its set at a lower rate than the top tax rate as it would clarify most of the Grey areas,in some countries with CGT there is even a different tax rate for shares sold when held for less than a year(Higher) than those sold after holding for longer than a year(lower) Time to get back to PEB but of course these things affect all shares so still very relevant
And then, with the re-rating continuing and the positive outlook for the year ahead, PEB may just continue onward and upward over the next few days anyway.
It’s hard to catch a ship sailing away when you’re a rat in the water.
If some one buys 120000 we will be right back where we were.
I think you are on to something. Teh discussion has been focusing on Trading, taht being the intention at the time of purchase. It sounds like people have a profit making scheme to buyin the troughs and sell in the peaks - a profit making scheme is also taxable, as is being in the business of dealing in shares.
Back to PEB. NO need to panic people, were in it for the long term and in the long term, it will be selling $100m within 5 years ;)
Hi Whip, I remember your above quote on the XRO thread ... and I made a similar quote on the same thread. We were both proved to be "cringing" at the time ... but I note XRO has continued onto such lofty heights and my view has still not changed. They seemed to have burst through the bubble somewhat.Quote:
I'm cringing at the small retail investors who have bids in for blocks of 220, 780 and 80 at $11.80 + ...... lambs to the slaughter :(
For that reason, I don't see PEB anywhere near bubble status. I'll be happy for them to get to $5 a share!!
Couldn't find Darlings presentation on the Life Sciences Report, re: Biotech Showcase
at San Francisco but you can bet he talked up Peb a storm.
Last time I looked sp down 12c a golden opportunity to top up.
Last year at the AGM David darling mentioned, if I recall correctly, that the independent user programme outcomes for cxbladder would be published in the Journal of Urology in early 2014.
This IMHO will represent significant exposure and validation for pacific edge diagnostics, the journal of urology has a subscription base of 20,000 professionals, many of whom will be directly involved with test prescription and insurance assessments.
Does anyone recall if it was the January or the February edition we should look out for ?
Down 6% today.
Keep talking it up, boyz. The only problem is that the US Equities market has only just started its correction and will not begin trending up again for some time...taking biotechs down with it (especially those yet to turn a profit, let alone yet to register any signficant sales!).
Buy time is next month IMO (announcements notwithstanding). Now that it's been tested so soon, I'm expecting a break through the psychological support level of 150c later this week. I could be wrong of course, but I'm trading to it.
BC
Bobcat, you may believe it or not, but most PEB holders probably don’t give a rats about short term moves in share price, some probably rarely even look.
If you wish to read or actively engage and contribute in more insightful analysis and discussion on this forum you are most welcome.
The fundamentals of a company don’t change just because your digger can’t decide which direction it should go, and the fundamentals for PEB appear to be most certainly onward and upward.
Well to be perfectly honest I still view Xero as a bubble, and given the similar characteristics it has to the 2000's tech bubble, time may in fact prove me right. What it does have in its favour however is a relatively tightly held stock base with some heavy backers (thiel etc) staying in for the long haul. It also could emerge as the absolute winner in its field in which case the price could hold.
Back to PEB, the suggested buyout price of $6 is an absolute joke. That would put the market cap above that of the likes of GHDX who currently have US$250m+ in sales, multiple products, and demonstrated profitability even after ~$40m in R&D expenditure, which means it is spending more in R&D than PEB is currently pulling in in sales. From my understanding it also has a larger addressable market than the 1.895m annual bladder cancer diagnostics tests presently required in the US market..
So yeah comments like these suggest a few people are blindly jumping on the gravy train which is one of the early signs that a stock could *potentially* be overvalued.
Tell that to PRAN.NASDAQ/PBT.ASX. (though what happens tomorrow remains to be seen!)
Attachment 5399
Perhaps Hancock’s or Barney can help me out,
Aside from the AGM, the only more recent reference I have is to the user programme study results being due to be published by way of a presentation at the Urological Society of Australia and New Zealand (USANZ) Annual Scientific Meeting in March 2014.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/240937
Traders of this stock will be having a hard time trying to make sense of the share price fluctuations at the moment. Investors in this stock will appreciate the share price fluctuations are due to the presence of traders who are having a hard time recognising the share price fluctuations!
I just had a quick check..Dow johns is green.. nasdaq is nearly flat... ftse 100 is only 1.7% down mate ...I understsnd you have sold but don't say something untrue