Now that post is a bit of a conversation stopper.!!!..
I guess your next post will start;"But wait there's more."
I don't look forward to it.!!...lol.
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Lets see what PE these private equity guys really get.
The other thing about forecasts, companies build credibility over time as you know, over many years in fact. Just because the promotors issue a forecast, (huge vested interest anyone ?), doesn't mean its credible.
I for one treat private equity vendor issued forecasts with extreme caution.
I'm interested in Tegal at the right price in due course...but I am cautious and would prefer to see if they can lay a golden egg or two and actually meet next year's forecast first.
One question,from ASB security site NTA is -25cents,i think the private equity firm in order to push down IPO price to $1.55 they have to increase debt leve,seems quite tricky.
Still stalking, still interested.
Attachment 8351
"Inghams Group's initial public offering price range has been set at 13.5-times to 15.5-times forecast profit, sources told Street Talk"
"The company is preparing to come to market with $98.8 million in proforma net profit after tax in the 2017 financial year, up 18.9 per cent on last year. That IPO price range values Inghams' equity at up to $1.53 billion."
Read more: http://www.afr.com/street-talk/ingha...#ixzz4MkwW2ubT
I think Tegel was listed at 15.0? (rock bottom of their range)
If Ingham was listed, like Tegel, at rock bottom of the indicative range, would a ratio of 13.5 implying Tegel to be priced at just under $1.40?
If I have done my math/thinking right (may not have!) Tegel could be still trading at a "reasonable" premium, despite falling under listing price.
Disclosure: Getting more attractive now that we're under $1.50, but still not sure so am not holding.
Interesting article on NBR behind the paywall about the chicken glut in N.Z. at present. Makes me wonder if its really any different to any other form of commodity / agri stock. I use a standard PE ratio of 10 for agri stocks and that's held me in good stead over time. I suppose one could attribute a slightly higher PE because of population growth and maybe a continued shift toward more white meat over more expensive red meat.
Maybe a PE of 12 - 13 is reasonable...but who can say reliably what the E will be !
Why chicken is about to get pricey
Chicken prices are expected to rise.By Christopher Adams
Enjoy cheap chicken prices while they last.
That's the message consumers can take from a sharebroker's report that says a glut in New Zealand's favourite meat will shortly come to an end.
Average prices for fresh chicken pieces were 9 per cent lower in August than in March, according to the First NZ Capital research.
And whole frozen chickens were.........read on....
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/new...ectid=11727574
Lot of words before you get to the important part -
The shares recently traded at $1.47.
"In our view this represents a buying opportunity," said First NZ, which has a target price of $2.10 on the stock.
Jeez - potential 40% gain with hardly any risk
They will make sure its over $2.00 by the New Year