Dear baa...do you mean depression
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Dear baa...do you mean depression
I totally concur with you Pete, you are sadly correct.
Watching for any sign of the SP finding a new bottom is then disappointed with another deluge of predictable heavy selling driving the SP to a new low. Even the reluctant Beagle has a claw dipped back in because the value is so undeniable... I am jealous to watch this as my cupboard is now bare.
There is just nobody left with enough dry powder to offset the untempered hands holding the latest spread of approx 300 million recently unloaded MAQ shares.
I am hoping that the NZ govt will put on a total NZSX freeze as it suitable in this very real crisis, (bring back Rob Mouldoon)
It also seems a total no brainer for Earle to announce an immediate buy back program, that at least should halt the SP bleeding.....after all, why bother building a new complex when you can buy one back off yourself for half price.(complete with plenty of embedded value washing through and truckloads of govt funded customers).
I'm not sure if I've fully got my head around retirement stock acocnting but the fair value movement of investment property is often close to the net surplus. If the market is now guessing these FV movements are neutral or negative then Mr Market could be pricing OCA as a loss-making stock that will struggle to make a profit until property prices are going up. How many months or years away is this?
If you take this view, its pretty easy to justify a big discount to NTA. The gold standard on this reverse metric is your friend MET. Back in 2010 they had NTA of $4.13 with a share price of $2.00 so the market has previously gone below 50% of NTA for a retirement stock.
If you go have a walk around your local supermarket and see the madness, that same energy is what's going on with some solid stocks on the NZX. Sure you could wait for your precious TA to trigger or you could get it well the going good and not miss the snap 20% bounce.
Tough times for large holders like yourself Mav, I'm guessing your red arrow is somewhere around the size of my HLG one(Huge) yet like myself you are a long term holder with a long term view and outlook and a couple of years from now this current situation will just be another zigzag on the wall of worry chart.
Bought more yesterday so my holding is back to the size it was 2 months ago.
I simply do not believe one can pick the high and lows but try and estimate the risk.
With such good dividends the risk of being in a worse position in 12 months time is no greater than the chance of a better position.
In my estimation a worse position is 10 cents less( accounting for 2 dividends ) but a better position is more likely to be 20 to 50 cents better.