New guy turning bullish?:D
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Mac how do you put a de-risked price for fy 16 when we have no sales at present.....I understand if only one provider goes with cx bladder they wont just buy a couple of kits, probably more like a couple of thousand kits so i can see sales climbing quickly but until such time it is only guesswork...or am i missing something....besides a brain i mean
All questions are fair Ziggy, DCF analysis based on market research and company advised goals and other pertinent information is the answer, my last valuation basis was here;
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...894#post499894
Valuing biotech companies seems to require a lot of research, most of us are not doctors or technicians and the potential of the technology can take some time to assess. Once comfortable with that, the fundamental valuation methods commonly applied are really not too much different from other types of companies.
I’ve posted these links on the thread before, worth a read if you have the time and some inclination.
https://www.deloitte.com/view/en_us/...42f00aRCRD.htm
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...hvaluation.asp
One step at a time. I see 110 as the first major resistance level.
When (if) the price gets to 110 time to reassess. If the price breaks through 110 yes the next target is about 125. But lets get to 110 before worrying about that
Nothing certain in life. Could turn to custard again next week and go below 70 again.
thanks mac...have read 100% of articles... understood 50%.....still seems bit hit and miss to me....one question...if i am suspected of bladder cancer ,how many kits would i use till im cured or put away my knife and fork.....ie..$20,000 worth of drug a year for 5 years is a lot more than say half dozen test kits
Well, it would depend if you are even diagnosed and on how you responded to treatment, after just a couple of Cxbladder tests you may have been triaged and sent home to have a happy life, if your cancer is progressive there could be very many more.
Here’s a quick calculation based on US market figures;
Number of potential tests per annum (Pacific Edge): 2,000,000
Number of new cancer patients per annum (Cancer Society): 74,690
Number of people presenting with haematuria each year (Pacific Edge): 1,000,000
If the 1,000,000 haematuria patients are screened with a single test each and 74,690 of them are found to have bladder cancer, than the average cancer patient will receive
(2,000,000 – 1,000,000) / 74,690 = 13.3 tests each
That may sound like a lot of tests but one must consider there are at least seven value propositions, and as bladder cancer has a very high recurrence rate, this figure will include ongoing monitoring tests potentially for a duration of several years in some cases.
Attachment 6246
What do you PEB bulls make of Darling and co getting a sweetheart deal for millions of in the money options free of charge ?
Move out of the way I want to get my snout further in the trough first or a good example of incentivising key management ?
What would the SP have to get to for their options to be viable?
Its obniusly a very different game than an outright raise
Seems in line with David Darling having been successfully elected as a director a few weeks ago at the AGM. Well deserved after many years of service already, options at 80c shows confidence also.
Directors need a bit of both skin and incentive, all good.
I am not against it personally as the current SP has baked in a certain level of success with this business and at 80c they should be rewarded for making that happen.
It is a reasonably chunky amount, but I would have preferred options based on sales $ in the first instance so they are rewarded on achieving what they state ($100m), instead of what the market implies they will do. My view anyway. Compensation initiatives are always tricky and there is never a solution that explicitly aligns interests correctly, unfortunately.
From a regular Cx bladder user.
My latest (1st Sept) CxBladder result is back: and lower than last time - 0.04, down from 0.05. Alas, due to my urine having a high level of leukocytes (white blood cells), due to my laser prostatectomy on 12th August, I cannot do an NMP-22. The CxBladder test is indifferent to this contamination.
http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.com.au/
The latest "Listener" magazine has a full page ad. for Cxbladder.
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The 2014 annual report for the Australian diagnostics company Cellmid (CDY.AX) with which PEB has an important licensing agreement for CxBladder was released yesterday at
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2014091...pbs2pfzr1s.pdf
There are several references to PEB's success in developing CxBladder, particularly around pages 6-7.
Im a bit confused what your saying here Hancocks--Your saying these tests will save lives ,reduce costs etc etc-but your saying they have dropped cervical cancer from their pipeline-- Ive either misunderstood or dont see what your point is with the doctor stuff up example--(for cervical?)
Fair enough
Hi Hancocks,
Easy read and I nice reminder of the need out there.
Thanks for posting.