As much as I like heartland, this price is starting to seem a little crazy. I am still holding, but am no longer sure I should be. Hard stock to sell though, anybody else sharing this feeling?
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As much as I like heartland, this price is starting to seem a little crazy. I am still holding, but am no longer sure I should be. Hard stock to sell though, anybody else sharing this feeling?
A while back I posted a comparative analysis of HBL v the 6 Aussie banks. I arrived at a fair price of $1.83. I won't sell anything that's tracking and growing well unless its at least 10% above my assessment of fair value. I think the tax change against the Aussie banks gives HBL more of a competitive advantage in N.Z. and in Australia with their reverse equity mortgages. That extra competitive advantage has to be worth something on the SP. The market says the net present value of all this future competitive advantage its 10 cents, (as that's what's been added to the SP since this occurred). I won't argue with the market so my preliminary revised assessment of fair value is now $1.93, call it $2.00 shall we Percy :D
Wow, winner69, Heartland has been winning so much these past few days... ?
Been a fantastic few days for Heartland, today even had good volumes, despite another 5 cent rise.
Surely tomorrow is the day Jeff comes out with his 60 - 65m profit forecast (ie an upgrade), and we all know if this is the case it will be 64.8m ;)
And once Jeff has said these magic words, he will become the man running a billion dollar company (market cap at $934 million right now)
Congratulations to all the holders, and may the odds be ever in your favor.
Disclosure: Not holding
I think people are looking for their next best opportunity and have finally cottoned on to HBL having a lot more potential... Especially if NZ becomes the Switzerland of the South Pacific (probably won't happen/hopefully won't happen). I am loving it (Not an add. No I don't like McDonalds, ever)
Interesting to note,and probably nothing in it but...
WBC and ANZ shareprices have corrected by quite a bit,whilst HBL and TNR have increased on good volume over the last few days.
Coincidence...
HBL is too expensive right now,although it has hit my targeted price of 180 on technicals,it's getting a bit frothy for a bank unless there is something out of the ordinary to report,but don't hold your breath there...
Innovative approach. Very clever thinking in my opinion... at a time when interest rates are very low elderly folks may need a regular top up in their monthly income.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11853559
Well it was a hard call this morning but I've sold out of HBL at $1.79. time will tell whether that was the right decision but at the current price it seems a little overvalued. I'll look at buying in again around $1.65 (if it ever gets that low). It's been a great ride :)
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11853339
In a single word this is "draconian" ! HBL have been handed a significant and probably permanent competitive advantage against the Australian banks and the market has decided that's worth something in terms of the net present value of all that future competitive advantage as reflected in the SP rise. In post #9411 I included an article that referenced strong growth in their high margin lucrative reverse equity business and a new approach to this form of lending...join the dots... its not about FY17 profit, its about profit growth further out...happy holder.
Not sure if old news or new news:
http://meatexportnz.co.nz/2017/05/11...eartland-bank/
Won't be 64.8 this year
Column V will ensure something just over 60
This gives them scope for F18 guidance of 65 to 70
Wonder what 'real' profit actually is? And what might happen if Column V doesn't have enough in it to help out if the **** hits the fan in the next recession.
But only worry about the short term - no worries
Surprised so many faithful selling though