See my latest HLG post.
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tantrum ... buying dip possible but NZ probably wont respond much and price is right, right now......
Bah humbug!
According to Warehouse Money I'm going to benefit from a Purple Visa card instead of my current Warehouse Money visa card. What this really means is they will be taking my 5% discount away and charging me $55 a year for the pleasure. And this is to "benefit" me.
I can't say I'm that surprised and it's been good while it lasted (especially in those days when there was shareholder discount and you could get a discount on a discount). But as I use the card only when at The Warehouse I won't have it much longer.
So bad for WM visa card holders but potentially good for WHS holders.
I think they're headed down the everyday value path anyway so you'll get more value. Honestly I am really surprised how cheap stuff is in the Warehouse. The cheapest thing of all is the shares though :)
"tantrum "
referring to up and coming QE slow down which could hit the market here if the DOW throws one.
WHS could be cheap for a while yet.
Its fairly valued at this time.
"Dont worry NZ market"
dont expecet the NZ market to react for more than a morning or 2 ..last chance buying for WHS although if WHS hit it out of the park these could be the last so called cheap buys..
hoping the selling continues..would like to see 3.50 and below..
Maybe WHS with its target demographic, warehousing, distribution and retail network is the ideal J.V. partner for the Government with a possible new Kiwishop ?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/1260...rocery-duopoly
Looking forward to a trading update soon.
Apparently all 12,000 WHS employees are getting a $1,000 one off bonus this year.
They about to announce a HUGE profit I reckon.
With all those 1/4 properties in NZ towns and solar storage batteries coming WHS could start selling portable roof solar units and small portable racks.
A bit far fetched perhaps but there is scope for expanding business models in the future
I think MR B could be right if WHS already has warehousing technology an platforms.
They already have the experience.
The veritable vege garden making a come back?
Is that a rumor? or actually reported/announced?
That’s an extra $12 million payout, which equates to almost 0.50c per hour worked in a year for a full time employee.
Would be a reduction of around 9 million NPAT for WHS.
I don’t mind WHS paying bonuses, especially in the current tight employment market, but I hope they announce better than market expectations with results, as this bonus combined with the paying back of the wage subsidy are two awfully big “gestures” to have happen in one financial year.
one of the most anticipated earnings seasons ever. Interest website today predicts its the high point of this cycle which is a very short one, only 1 1/2 year long.
Agree with your sentiment. I didn't agree with the repayment of the wage subsidy and they are already incredibly generous with other donations, e.g. $250,000 donated to Women's Refuge last month
https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/...-womens-refuge
From last years report
CEO fixed remuneration is 33.22 times median Team Members rem
Median hourly rate of all Team Members is $21.15 per hour.
They deserve the bonus
I agree W69.
Plus everyone goes to work to earn money at the end of the day. For WHS employees it's probably the main reason by some margin. There is nothing worse than seeing your company report huge profits and not get a slice of it, after all your hard work.
If you get a slice you are more engaged and maintain high productivity levels. It's very important to get staff motivated and cold hard cash is the best- always. No matter how many 'pizza shouts' a company does it wont match cash in the bank.
If this bonus happens it'll be worthy of further debate as they've already paid a ~ $60m social dividend this year.
It's two different things, Beagle. Can't lump them together.
Beagle, you are going to ignite another ST wage subsidy debate lol
Disagree with you peat
One of a persons biggest asset is their ability to earn an income - their intellectual capital
One can measure that capital - its the capitalised value of ones future income stream - you could this their equity (at risk)
WHS payroll about $550m at the moment - the employees return on the capitalised value of their IP which we could say is valued at $4,000m/$5,000m
WHS shareholders have put in $429m into the company and that's worth about $1,300m now
Therefore I contend employees have heaps more invested in WHS than shareholders do (Depending how you want to measure it 4 to 10 times as much)
And both are at 'risk'
I have no problem with people being paid a bonus for service over and above what is expected of them. Whether the WHS staff who are not on any form of incentive program deserve a bonus will no doubt be the subject of hot debate (if it happens), but I for one will not waste any more of my time debating something on the basis of just a rumor.
I don't wish to start yet another round of the already vigorously debated wage subsidy argument other than to note that WHS have already done the right thing (as many described it. kowtowed to Cindy's bully boy behavior is how I would describe it), this financial year at substantial cost.
As an investor I look forward to hearing what other programs WHS have for streamlining their business model and taking cost out of it.
With all the streamlining and roles being disestablished wage bill probably still well below last years anyway, bonus included
3.55 didnt last long ....
what a range!
its being chased now.
who would have anticipated the quick extremes.
Hard to get these at 3.50.
My take : happy staff = happy business. I work with a business where every employee (including the yard sweeper) gets a $250 bonus EVERY month we make budget. I set the budgets. We make budget regularly, so the owners are happy and the workers are happy. It's a (relatively) small price to pay to those who have your business in their hands on a daily basis. This sort of thing absolutely motivates staff to do the right thing for the business. Have you ever seen factory staff lean into a sales graph presentation? I do, every month. I don't have an issue with WHS doing this because I have seen it action, and it works.
Agree, my company has not behaved well in regards to Covid, the wage subsidy and reducing salaries during this time And a wage freeze. They now make millions in profit and no bonus in sight or wage increase. The big cheese probably dont see it but it upsets people down the the chain and they dont go the extra mile. You can probably guess what company I mean. Earning coming up....expect good result.
from H1 earnings:
So not a big reduction, but should be kept in context of a large increase in minimum wage and overall economy wide escalation in labour costs, and also the comparable sales for the periods are considerably larger in current year. So labour costs as a proportion of revenue have dropped considerably despite upwards pressure on wages economy wide. That’s a big win in my book.Quote:
“Approximately 67% of employee expenses are related to stores, fulfilment centres and distribution centres which has all been managed well throughout a period of elevated sales.
In particular store labour has declined 1.5% compared to the prior half year period, driven by the efficiency gains from the labour operating model update in The Warehouse stores ensuring our stores are most staffed when our customer want to shop.”
With all due respect mate you came up with the same spurious argument with AIR employees and said their human capital invested was far greater than shareholders. All these staff are now arguably on the most generous state sponsored welfare system we've ever witnessed and probably very few of whom, if any, (despite many receiving lavish 6 figure salaries and in some cases seven figures) will dig into their own pockets to rescue that basket case of a company.
Front line retail workers can get a job in any other front line retail position, ostensibly they risk nothing, whereas I risk my capital.
Well said LaserEyeKiwi.
Hope we go back to $3.55, greedy Beagle is ready to deploy even more risk capital.
Did anyone hear further if the bonus was confirmed or still just a rumour? WHS Staff would be pretty happy with a $1k bonus and then a couple paid weeks off for another lockdown.
"3.55"
Mr B's lock down may soon appear and this price might just be the start if its level 4.
can risk any spread..Zero spread.
Likely to be a re run of wellington.
Time for the Warehouse to tell us they are staying open during lockdown :-)
Oh that's just being mean. You think they might have learned from last year ?
Frankly I am surprised we've got through 6 months without community transmission in N.Z. Many shares are already priced like it was only a matter of when, not if, there was another breakout and WHS has clearly been one of them.
I expect they'll go straight to level 4 at midnight tonight in Auckland, could be a national lockdown, and that's the correct response. Go hard and go early has worked before and might work again if we go hard enough and early enough. In the meantime there will be a lot more people keen to get vaccinated.
wellington was only level 2, and that was because the chain of transmission was known (happened in Sydney) whereas if this has no clear chain of transmission from a known case then a level 3 or 4 lockdown is far more likely to be required for Auckland.
" level 2,"
forgot what level it was, actually hoping for level 4 although it will impact a lot of activities in auckland this weekend for us all..
hamilton might get a level 2 side swipe.
Mr B's 3.55 was touched not long ago.
not long now , clocks ticking, tempus fugit (time flies).
MR B might like to figure out the new opportunities in the market tomorrow.
So does WHS apply for wage subsidy at all? I am guessing no. Everyone else who is forced to close will of course.
All CFO's will want to apply. Auckland might well be out of action for weeks..and weeks.
And who's to say this is the last instance of this and the last level 4 nation wide.
Many on this forum have warned of the likely hood of this and look how quickly it transpired.
Will let MR B and other's go over the theory of the balanced sector portfolio and cash reserves.
Adding to MR B's comment it may well be that an accounting standard for public companies should have been established by the Society and the IRD to administer the credit on the balance at the next balance date.
It may well be that it was deemed to difficult to do with the current rollout of the new IRD platform.
They should apply and keep it this time. They pay their taxes and are entitled to support. Hope Cindy is kind to WHS this time and not a bully again. She shouldn't lower herself to being critical of any company that chooses to accept and keep the support her own Govt offered.
Is that our next Divie impacted again ? ;)
"Is that our next Divie impacted again"
... more buying opportunities.
Look on the bright side.
Hahaha .. think they're still busy fixing older bugs & glitches with the new (old new) flash billion $ system
that was supposed to slice & dice bread without supervision .. ;)
the exceptions & glitches list is probably longer than the extended arms of everyone collectively who have posted in this thread already .. ;)
Yes the move off Cobol can be ambitious.....
Reminds me of green screens and DG pascal days..
"The Hawk in the Bay" will be busy for the next week gliding over the terrain looking for some game.
Good hunting conditions for Hawk's...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...ork-at-level-4
Warehouse getting bad press re level 4 again
For every article like this, there is another article saying how hard it gets for retail workers stuck with no work during a lock down. What do they want exactly? Their situation is no different to any other essential business that continues on with life.
Bet there are loads of other retail workers made to stay at home who would be happy to go pick and pack in a room of 4-5 people and continue getting a wage.
Edit to add: Being notified after 9pm is a direct result of this governments obsession with announcements after 5pm. Our essential business had staff waiting until 6:30pm in order to know what was happening so we could plan accordingly. Time to start doing lockdown announcements at 4pm.
Well there wasn't the bargain at the WHS I was looking for today. 😂
isnt sub 3.60 a good price to buy at?
So just to clarify the bonus was for all permanent staff. If you usually work 20 hours or more they received $1000 and everyone else got $500. I cant see any media article's reporting on it though only lockdown controversy...
With Z getting a formal takeover offer today - WHS must be in the mix to replace it as a NZX50 constituent?
any arguments for/against inclusion now that foodstuffs has sold down it’s stake?
"Swedish owners of MET to try and takeover OCA"
is there enough in it for them... raiders of opportunity by past history... farmers and sailors.
They going raiding for gold within easy reach.. OCA doesnt look like it got much loot sitting on the alter within easy reach yet. Net assets ratio's of the NZ population and percentage increase in retirement contracts would be where they are looking for gold. If they have already raided the easy gold, it's a big world.
Huge synergies by combining two companies of OCA and MET's size.
Anyway back to WHS. Maybe a takeover prospect itself ?
Retail doesnt seem to be in favour today..lockdowns having an effect? a Buy day then for those feeling bullish on retail.. MFT and EBO having a good day.
Retail the place to be invested. WHS shareholders will be rewarded soon.
I'm not sure any company would want to give a trading update at present unless there is a statutory obligation to do so. Scheduled report day for the full year is 29 September. Hope we're out of lockdown by then.
Hope they take the Govt's Covid support and keep it this time.
Let's take a second and examine the conditions that made this such a compelling company this year.
1. People aren't traveling and are therefore spending their money on the Homefront.
2. The evidence from the last year suggests this means staggering numbers for local retailers.
Now ask yourself, have recent developments made it more likely or less likely that these conditions will continue?
I think we know the answer to that. Travel is off for a while. Maybe even a long while. Money will continue to flow aggressively inwards. Is this really in dispute?
Therefore, all recent drops in the shareprice are temporary. There WILL be a hit resulting from the recent lockdowns, no getting around that. But I would argue it's actually a positive thing for the stock. Perhaps one bad month followed by 11 exceptional months.
Screaming buy to me right now. Maybe not RIGHT this second, but who can actually time this stuff perfectly?
I'll look back with pleasure reading this in a year. I posted during the last lockdown about the incredible amounts of wealth that are built in these situations. This is one of those situations. Get in or get left behind.
While I agree with the overall sentiment of your post, I think travel will come on a lot sooner than some anticipate as the world vaccinates.
For example, at the end of July Air Canada were flying to Auckland/Australia 4 days per week as cargo only aircraft. At the start of August this service was reduced to two days per week as a result of the Canadian government opening up their borders to vaccinated passengers. The aircraft were economically better put to use flying USA to Canada and selling bums on seats rather than cargo in the boot, so NZ lost out. The pressure from NZ exporters/importers and tourists will start to pile on soon as we get left behind in a world trying to open for business.
well there will be a mental difference between New Zealanders traveling overseas, and overseas travelers coming here. Once we open up (some point in early 2022 after close to full vaccination is done) plenty of people will be more than willing to come to NZ, but kiwis will be much more hesitant about traveling overseas (and travel insurance that includes emergency covid health care will likely be very expensive).
WHS bound to be on the receiving end of a darn good spending spree again at some stage
Covid Pt I probably encouraged a fair bit on inhouse tidying up ;)
Covid II they probably have the game plan for the duration all worked out & inplace
to execute all on one Control console .. ;)
going above 3.60 are we breaking back to an upward trend.. second last chance salon.
3.65 by day end? or above..
NZ retail sales data yesterday was very strong
Actual Forecast Previous
3.3% 2.4% 2.8%
WELLINGTON, Aug. 24 (Xinhua) -- New Zealand's total retail sales volume rose 3.3 percent in the June 2021 quarter, following a 2.8-percent rise in the March 2021 quarter, the country's statistics department Stats NZ said on Tuesday.
"Most retail industries saw increases in spending, with rises across all regions," Stats NZ said.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/asi...1310144998.htm
SP a long way from the bargain days of 3.50. Lockdown bets are clear skies ahead for retail NZ...
Its not far away in reality and it was only a few days it hit that mark. There's a wall at 3.75 so see how long it takes to break down.
Interesting times ahead with WHS and covid. They are performing very well and all the changes are bringing a huge changing point in there fortunes. Waiting for their trading update. Also there could be the possibility of them paying out a divi but not paying out the full amount as a covid buffer. Just have to wait and see I guess. I still think we won't be seeing this in the 3s for much longer. Onwards and upwards. Will get back to where it was years ago
just some more of the same data
A new Xero Business Insights Report, about the performance of small businesses in July, shows good growth in sales and jobs but not as strong as in June.
Xero’s small business index fell to 122 points from a record high of 127 in June 2021, but still well above the average, 100 points.
Usually the index compares data from one month with the same month the year before, but because July 2020 was impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic Xero is using annualised two-year growth to account for base effects.
Small business sales rose 6.6 per cent in July after a strong 11.9 per cent rise in June.
Retail was the strongest performing sector in July, the third month in a row, with sales growth of 11.5 per cent. Hospitality sales in July were 9.5 per cent higher, the fifth consecutive month of growth, the report said.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/pro...-from-lockdown
I know there is a discussion re WHS entering index. According to data from For batt not yet.
S&P/NZX Index Insights
Nothing Changes When in Lockdown
We pick that there will be no changes for the upcoming S&P/NZX September 2021 quarterly index review (headline
indices). Official outcomes of the review will be announced close of market Friday, 3 September 2021, with an effective
date, close of market Friday, 17 September 2021.
Figure 1. September 2021 Review: The Forsyth Barr Pick
Index Enter Exit Expected Weight (rank)
S&P/NZX 10 no changes expected n/a
S&P/NZX 20 no changes expected n/a
S&P/NZX 50 no changes expected n/a
S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio no changes expected n/a
Source: Forsyth Barr analysis
The current status
Figure 2 outlines the current rankings for inclusion/exclusion for the benchmark S&P/NZX 50 indices. At this stage we see no obvious
near term changes ahead.
The six-month average market cap automatic entry level to the benchmark index is currently above $455m with the exit level below
$265m. Currently, the lowest ranked index member is Sky Network TV (SKT) whilst the highest ranked non-member is The
Warehouse (WHS).
Figure 2. . Current Rankings for S&P/NZX 50 Index Inclusion/Exclusion
Ranking Code Current status 6-mth average price 6-mth average market cap
42 NZX S&P/NZX 50 Member $2.00
43 VGL S&P/NZX 50 Member $2.20 $502.73m
44 (entry level) FSF S&P/NZX 50 Member $4.24 $455.06m
45 RBD S&P/NZX 50 Member $13.92 $434.14m
46 SAN S&P/NZX 50 Member $4.78 $392.94m
47 WHS $3.48 $386.16m
48 ERD $5.46 $375.34m
49 HLG $7.32 $349.37m
50 SML S&P/NZX 50 Member $3.57 $320.31m
51 THL S&P/NZX 50 Member $2.48
52 NPH S&P/NZX 50 Member $3.39
53 SKT S&P/NZX 50 Member $0.17
54 BGP $5.74 $293.90m
55 MFB $1.46 $265.58m
56 (exit level) TRA $3.88 $252.52m
57 CVT $3.30 $177.95m
Many thanks for sharing. Well worth noting that these companies that are both current constituents of the NZX 50 are in play. ZEL is highly likely to be subject to a takeover early in 2022 and SKT is "in play"
Apart from that WHS is currently 47th based on a share price of $3.48 but at $3.70 it would be $410.6m making it 46th and getting a lot closer to the $455m.
Further, I think WHS has tremendous capital gain potential and will likely make it into the NZX50 under its own steam in 2022 even in the very unlikely event that neither ZEL or SKT are taken over in 2022.
In summary I think there is a very strong probability WHS will get included in the NZX50 sometime before the end of 2022.
yes the elimination of ZEL (if the takeover is successful) was the impetus for raising the prospect of inclusion. That commentary below just confirms the most likely candidate is WHS. Also with SKY TV having absolutely consistently horrid share price performance being the lowest candidate for expulsion from the index, I think WHS has a pretty good shot. Sky has also signaled is is going to do a capital return to shareholders once it finalizes the sale of its Auckland studio campus, which will further impact its market cap to the lower side.
Share consolidations like SKT are undertaking are usually unhelpful to market cap too.
All that said, I'm not investing for NZX50 inclusion, that would simply be a nice decorative item on top of a very fruity and well iced cake, so too speak. WHS shares are on compelling metrics and I think they have excellent capital gain potential.
Can someone remind me again what the $386m next to WHS in that list represents?
in the real world WHS is worth $1.28 Billion market cap, which is exactly $1 Billion higher than SKT $280 million market cap.
Its what I believe they call the free market float. Takes out huge longstanding large shareholding positions like the Tindall foundation stake. Sorry mate I don't know the fine nuances of exactly how they determine what shares are free market and what aren't but I am sure someone else on here will be happy to provide further clarity.
delted deleted
only matter of time for nzx inclusion , then all those institutions ( here and oversea's ) will have to pay up to get there shares. i can wait , in the mean time the 14% odd gross div yield i be receiving based on my analysis will keep me happy
For Bars last WHS update was 17/05 so before Foodies sell down. Nothing since.
Thanks guys for clarifying that, much appreciated.
Good point there Balance. If that's the case results will just have to speak. 😊
Cornerstone Shareholder in Zoom Health: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/378025