Please no. Stick to their knitting in a market they know well.
Sure, would worry me too, but worry is the spice of life. Its a global economy, if you don't start thinking globally what's the point of getting out of bed in the morning? Prove your model here then start the exponential global expansion. Look at MFT, and they are just a trucking company, any penniless cowboy can do it, but a well thought out, determined, strategy of a well-run kiwi company could take on international competition in overseas markets. What makes you think TRA are not as good as MFT?
Obviously have no intention of having a higher payout ratio - Chart in ASM presentation has Underlying NPBT growing 9.5% pa over the next three years ...but divie only increasing 7.7% pa
But that 9.5% is a bit misleading - Reported NPBT only growing at 6.4% pa if $45m is the target
Not that aspirational is it but suppose 6.4% is better than nothing - no wonder they don't appear to need any more capital
They mentioned they were growing at 15% before the lockdown. Q1 lending up 87%. Plenty of growth in N.Z. Retail will explode in Auckland when we're allowed out of Covid prison. It was clear in the presentation they are on track to exceed $45m in FY24. $37.4m FY21 with 10% compound annual earnings growth gives ~ $50m in FY24...that looks like a good motivational target that they will probably beat.
Notice how they're not talking roadmap to $5 anymore ? Next year they'll be talking roadmap to $7 ;)
Good company that has spent a lot of time getting its systems right which are now easily scalable. Probably deserves a higher PE than the market is according it.
But when tell a great story but when they show on slide headed ‘ Line of sight on where we’re going’ that NPBT is only going to grow at 6.5% pa for the next three years no wonder the market is pricing TRA as it is
Not a growth company now ..only good for a yield …not exciting
They tell a great story story ……but dont demonstrate much in the way earnings growth.
Ever heard of under-promise and over deliver ? l know its a rare thing on the NZX these days.
Maybe that slide is more about telling a very simple story to the market:
‘hey market, we are operating in very uncertain times but still have the confidence to forecast continued earnings growth for the next 3 years. Even though we have in the past had lumpy, hit and miss earnings. we now have full confidence in our business model and can guarantee consistent growth.’
How many other companies on the NZX are throwing out numbers to FY24?
A bit of sandbagging going on in that slide.. always better to exceed expectations. I think TRA will comfortably beat those numbers and true growth will be double digit p.a.
Winner - I'm new here - and I've always enjoyed your posts. But I think you are totally harsh on TRA. NPBT has grown at a 9.4% CAGR from FY18 to FY21, and from FY18 to projected FY24 thats 9.6%. A near 10% growth in profit is a growth company in my books. You are getting a sensational dividend yield and sensational capital growth. business is rarely linear and this has been a well executed turnaround for sure. But a boring old company delivers what about 6-7% per annum - total shareholder returns? You get your FAT dividends and growth on top of that.
Maybe you are just a hard cat to please???
https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-e...-as-we-know-it
Helpful hint. For american press - Washpost, NYT, WSJ - look at the site - if you find an article of interest select the headline and search for it. Scroll down and you'll find dozens of websites that have rights to reproduce it for free.
For the AFR - click on the article and the very second you see anything load hit ESC multiple times on your keyboard to stop the script from running. Or if on iphone or mobile, hit the x in the top right corner. You'll get good at it, and read for free. The AFR pretty easy to bypass, actually.
The old under promise over deliver trick eh. One of those sayings that give believers a degree of comfort but doesn't really drive market action.
If anything its a case of relief that results were close to guidance rather than actually over delivering
A few under promise over deliver stocks on the nzx at the moment - share prices going nowhere - STU a good example
Clear breakdown through 100 day MA on the STU chart but on the other hand the TRA chart is a thing of real beauty with a lovely strong ongoing uptrend remaining intact from July 2020.
FA and TA look very good to me. Happy holder.
Hey beagle - you are like that Gladys lady in NSW - her press conferences are really fascinating. Can't watch them now as she has packed a sad and not going to do as many now.
She answers questions for more than half an hour but never really answers the question - just goes back to her narrative etc etc ....but the narrative changes every now and again as things change
Sorry mate