It certainly is a possibility.
Trying to pick a low is guessing of course.
What I am more interested about is whether this is a safe investment-ie in the long-term is there any significant risk of losing on investing now?
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be only if they cant service there debt ( no re sales , or development margins from sales builds) . the fact they do property development means rthey need credit also. an outbreak in a centre would affecrt all these factors. better to wait till virus risk gone in my opinion. same risks for all these type of stocks
thanks for your opinion-i will stop watching the price and instead enjoy the day
You know me too well. Happy to bark about almost anything.
Yes 80 cents is my target price BUT as noted in the other stock shopping thread the caveat with any shopping list of stocks must include some reasonable TA indicator that its found a bottom.
Regardless of how sexy this looks at the original IPO price or quite possibly significantly less I am going to make any future investment decisions "out of an abundance of caution" so will wait for a clear sign the bottom is in. Half sized position when it breaks back up through the 30 day moving average and full sized position when the new uptrend is confirmed by a break up through the 100 day MA. This sort of cautious strategy will protect me from the prospect of a severe recession morphing into a great depression. Anyone who thinks we're not in for "at best" a severe recession is in denial, in my opinion.
I think this will test 75 cents in the short term. Where it goes from there...your guess is as good as mine.
Do you think the current price is just full market panic or are there genuine concerns about the long term value of NZ real-estate that might affect these players?
VERY tempting to just jump all-in here. Not a bad company, dividend paying, not directly tied to tourism or anything getting hit ultra hard by the current situation, and price shot to hell...
Both. In my view real estate comes under serious pressure in a protracted deep recession. People may find it very difficult to get bank finance and from a transactional point of view, people may find it harder to sell their home to move into a retirement facility so there could be a fall off in demand from that aspect.
Secondly, if the virus manifests itself in one or more retirement villages, (while I concede objectively people are probably just as safe or potentially even safer in retirement villages) its all about how the public perceive their safety and perception is everything. If people think they are safer in their own home they'll stay there so sales could dry up significantly.
Didn't RYM continue to increase underlying profit throughout the GFC?
Alot of revenue for OCA comes from government providing some level of security (vs say SUM which is very reliant on their property side of things)
This as $1.23 1 month ago... now looks to be going sub 70 cents (and I didn't really think $1.23 was 'excessive' or 'wildly overvalued')... it would seem almost too good to be true (even at sub 80 cents)... OCA never rose as high as ARV, SUM, or RYM... and now it has crashed even harder... what am I missing?