There’s a Uncle Bills next door to a Red Shed in Lyall Bay
Got pack of 40 bags Twining Tea for $3.98 the other day
Countdown price 20 bags for $6.70
So rawz your model works ……without the cost of having everything
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Love these government ‘inspired’ enquiries
Like we are not being fleeced at the petrol pumps by the likes of Z any more
Interesting thought I came across today - Competitive forces are also absent in our democracy. Effectively because of the 5% threshold for MMP we have little more than a monopoly.
Better have an enquiry I reckon
Hmm - not sure - I do see at least a duopoly. I think the problem with politics here is not lack of competition, but lack of relevant abilities, a lack of delivery of whatever was promised :): combined with a lack of transparency and a strong ineptitude to select decent candidates.
However - I must admit - I can think about many other countries where the lack of these attributes is ways worse than here in NZ :):
Only a Comcom ‘expert’ could suggest direct government sponsorship of entry into the market
What a weird world it is these days
That’s just one option. The more obvious immediate moves are things such as implementing a code of conduct (like they have in Australia and UK). At present the duopoly threatens suppliers with banishment from their shelves, or harsh cutbacks, if they dare to contemplate a serious effort to supply a new entrant. That is out an out abuse of market power and definitely warrants government action. The duopoly players did this to themselves, even while KNOWING that the com com was investigating the market they were stupid enough to continue doing it.
The exact same thing is happening in the building supplies industry - but from the opposite end. Building supplies are also a duopoly, but this time from suppliers, and hardware retailers & house builders are threatened with negative consequences if they seek a new third supplier either locally or internationally.
It’s a bugger WHS share price hasn’t really moved for a few weeks
The so called ‘overhang’ from Foodstuffs sell down must be gone by now?
Hope market not believing the story this year is a one off and things will revert to more normal levels of profit next year and beyond.
Just expanding on this a bit and you already know my view about the demand push being a multi year thing but the key point to me is that if this one off tailwind was indeed just a one -off then you could make the same argument for almost all the retailers so Briscoes on a PE of 17 and WHS on a PE of 6.6 becomes a bit of a no brainer decision especially given Rod Duke already has his business running like a well oiled Swiss watch and there's plenty of efficiencies to come from WHS's enhancement program.
Disc: Bought even more yesterday.
I trust you are like me and to coin one of Percy's favorite sayings, are "well positioned" :)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/pro...r-xero-reports
June strongest month for small business since level four.
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Major hint for our friend - 'James' in the 2 postings above :)
Special Note to James: these are not advice or opinion, but fact ;)
On the other side of this, products are still difficult to source, with long shipping delays and much higher costs. General business costs overheads are continuing to rise as well. Will we see another min wage rise in April? What about the implications of the fair pay act? What will the effect of a more open border, or higher interest rates on already maxed out mortgages be?
Rising interest rates will primarily impact the small minority of home owners for are first home owners who purchased in the last few years. The rest of the country’s homeowners (the vast majority) are sitting on huge gains creating a massive “wealth effect” that a small rise in interest rates (which are still well below long term average) will have little impact on. And of course the half of the country who rent also won’t be impacted.
I really think the massive impact of the paper wealth created over the last few years has yet to be appreciated by hardly anyone. And for those that have identified it, it’s probably judged to be a topic not for public discussion given the flip side of the situation (housing crisis). The number of millionaires created is absolutely unprecedented though.
On line shopping is here to stay and that means the browser is not really the device that lets you shop in VR.
These on line platforms will be lucky to last the decade. They will need a whole new technology platform to deliver the experience desired. Luckily the money is with the generation who grew up with the browser and companies can use there on line platforms for a while yet.
IT investments by these retailers will push them use global platforms that deliver the technologies they need to compete with each other.
It will be a case of sprinting just to stay still in the next decade to come.
Are you going to even want to go to crowd places such as sports events or concerts if you know your going to get a dose of the virus.
The whole game has changed and VR shopping could be the next big thing and who want to type on a keyboard to do it...
Want to walk down around crowed places?
Back to WHS and does it have a cost efficient delivery system with robot EV's? The next 20 years will bring huge change and the companies that start to embrace that change are the ones you can invest in for a decade.
MR B moves quickly and it may be a lesson that buy and hold is now a very difficult thing to do for many sectors. Defensives must surely start to make up a good portion of balanced portfolio's.
WHS does it have the track record? Yes it does but will it be able to compete with the competition that will come to NZ.
Buy and hold still works for MFT and FPH kind of stocks not for cyclicals like WHS and HLG ...unless they get the advantage over others by much advanced in technology and delivery systems . I will not bet on WHS to adapt so quickly with their ancient thinking and ways of doing things ...Briscoes maybe better bet but only time will tell .
next 5 years WHS is looking very stable and a BUY... MR B knows how to pick them.
With Labour under the pump and the lipstick smeared there is real pressure to keep the economy on its feet..
MIQ lacking to meet demand to put the economy back into action the economy could be running hot but it not at full revs.
Capital markets in NZ need attention with teeth to the FMA , tech R&D required. If the film industry treatment had been handed to manufacturing and tech we might have seen a bigger NZX.
Nobody is disputing Rod Duke's retail expertise however on a trailing PE of 17 and with the same procurement and logistical challenges as other retailers I feel Briscoes is fully priced in the circumstances.
WHS is a classic turnaround story. They've stripped a lot of cost out of the business (700 staff last year) and talk of a flatter management structure. Overhaling their inventory management systems, store within a store with Warehouse Stationary, possible retail footprint rationalization, (WALT of stores is just 4 years) and a range of other initiatives some of which will hopefully be eps accretive.
I would rather invest in a turnaround story on a current year PE of around 6.5 than pay up handsomely for perfection. Benefits have increased and many other Kiwi's will be doing it tougher in the years ahead with rising interest rates and that will drive them to make value buying decisions.
I think international travel is unlikely to revert to 2019 levels for many many years and people will spend that money here instead.
Fully agree with your logic that its much lesser risk to invest in retail with WHS then other mature companies in the sector ...It can go to $ 5 much quicker then anything else . Bought some more today as anticipating breakout over $ 3.50 soon ...will add more after breakout too .
Added more this morning to hit my maximum portfolio allocation.
Technical analysis update to come this evening.
I suggest you go and read the last investor day presentation. WHS group have already started a vast head to toe transition of their entire stack and are successfully integrating all 5 current brands (redsheds, WS, NL, T7, The market) into unified logistics, fulfilment, customer management platforms that will have significant operational efficiencies on top of those already achieved recently. It also means any new brands started or acquired will be significantly more profitable to run with the advantages of the large scale integrated WHS infrastructure supporting it.
Attachment 12801
Recent investor day presentation:- http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...579/345273.pdf
WHS moved up about the time of MR B's last post.....
I'm sure it was just a coincidence. Today's close is however a nice break up through the 100 day moving average so that gives technical analysis encouragement to those of us that have been buying on such compelling fundamental's.
Let's see how the technicals are developing after my previous post...
I'll let my charts do most of the talking this time. We have had one major development of a weekly higher low being set since we last checked in, and we are on the verge of the combination of confirming a weekly uptrend and confirming a monthly higher low. If this confirms ($3.50 break), this will be a very bullish scenario and provide very favourable odds that a monthly bull flag is playing out. About 1/3rd of the placement has been traded in the last few months so it's possible we may see some further churn before breaking out if there's still overhang, however it does look like the balance between buyers and sellers has changed. Institutional buying can now be seen at higher and higher prices.
Attachment 12802
Attachment 12803
Hmm - interesting.
12 month analyst consensus according to (https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...364/consensus/) is at $3.83 and Share clarities 10yr - DCF value is $3.22 - i.e. according to the collective wisdom of our best analysts this would be at best a "Hold" ...
On the other hand - official analyst recommendation is 8.33/10 - which would be between "Outperform" and "Buy". Just wondering whether these are the same analysts?
Good thing is - as we know, analysts are as often wrong as they are right - i.e. it doesn't matter anyway.
Discl: Hold a medium sized parcel.
Yes daily and intraday charts have been a choppy mess and haven't provided any clarity. Always like to keep increasing timeframes until I get a really clear picture of what's playing out.
Weekly uptrend and monthly higher low has now been confirmed. Want to see a close above $3.50.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...364/consensus/
I for one ignore share clarity as they provide none. The 3 professional analysts covering WHS have an average price target of $3.83, two BUY's and one hold and as noted before their future profit expectations look extremely conservative to me.
Disc: Bought more this morning and WHS is my #1 High conviction position.
"Disc: Bought more this morning and WHS is my #1 High conviction position."
That is why the SP jumped.....
"full marks for being a beagle follower"
our portfolio's were HLG investors and traders decades ago....
Stock often outperform and then slow there growth. KPG may perform again in 3 to 5 years or when a new CEO is appointed.
We are numbers followers and MR B goes by the numbers...
Later this year the historical database will come on line and then we will be swapped by numbers..
Will need to get multiple wide screen game monitors but you cant pack them up and travel..
If its any good will have to let MR B go on line from his super suite overlooking the Gulf...
With the RBNZ likely to raise rates this month it may be time to do some re balancing.
WHS could be a likely recipient.
From the HLG thread - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rice-increases thoughts on shipping costs impacting WHS margins?
a UK game importer from china basically said shipping costs had gone sky high.
now exactly what impact it has on NPAT who knows as they were small time.
but it should abate later next year? China is a mess. Jack Ma sent back to the paddy field and his empire being disassembled. They are making it up on the fly as a new man takes them fast forward to the past.
Company bond defaults on the rise they arnt going to care how much they charge the world for freighting and shipping.
We will just have to wait for the numbers to see how bad it gets.
Mean while with OCR heading up rebalancing is now the time.
Yeah we need more institutional buy in to this one. I am certainly doing my bit and well and truly putting my money where my mouth is. According to the 2020 annual report only 90 holders, (many will be institutions but sadly not enough of them), own more than 100,000 shares. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...579/345273.pdf
Believe the story, its happening.
definitely a stock to whatch and accumulate.
"only 90 holders"
if the numbers come in, the orders to sell at this price will dry up fast....
360 coming up ...train starting to leave the station... quick quick
re: shipping costs
just listened to the NCK.asx conference call. they import and retail furniture mostly from SE Asia (ie, bulky goods) and shipping costs has crimped their gross margins esp. in 2H vs 1H (but still grew NPAT 100% YoY). NCK CEO&MD said he felt shipping costs couldn't really go higher, and they would need to move prices if they did (they hadn't moved prices to date for higher shipping). based on those comments, I'm not too worried about shipping costs for WHS ... it can't be a positive, but I don't think higher shipping costs can do much harm to the otherwise very favourable tailwinds the retail sector is enjoying (and the specific improvements WHS is making to its business)
"370 coming up"
gosh who would have thought.
"Was in 380s not long ago"
april ... delta turned up since then, a life time ago...
4.0! well what would drive that one wonders...surely MR B cant be right again!
Not sure how much longer the share price will start with a "3". Once the cat is out of the bag with how well they're trading, good luck finding any decent number for sale under $4.
Well if investors havnt got their portfolios rebalanced with some WHS then with the DOS attacks starting again good luck find some if MR B is on the money yet again...
The Warehouses's DINERS CLUB (NZ) now officially stuffed
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...arehouse-group
Quote:
The once-proud Diners Club (NZ) has been put into liquidation.
Its ultimate owner was The Warehouse, which bought it for $3 million in 2014 in a bid to launch a financial services operation.
But in 2018, the NZX-listed retailer pulled the plug, sending letters to cardholders explaining that Diners Club (NZ) would stop issuing cards and membership would be discontinued from the end of December that year.
The letters asked cardholders to pay off any debts they owned on their cards, or contact the company to arrange repayment plans.
Spose it had it's uses & own niche in it's better days, but maybe as hinted at - at the prescribed cost of an arm & three legs for the privilege .. ;)
God only knows how WHS thought DINERS would fit into any part of their works & brandings when acquired .. ;)
more at link..
"The Beagle Effect!!"
well hes starting to look like that young NZ paddler ... always on the money... anyone bet on that NZ paddler!
NZTX, did you really have to post that or did you want the share price to back up to 3.45 again... dont think it will work although ...correction on the DOW predicted.. as always..
Concidering they have the market power to do it I'm surprised they havent
On another note I wish they would drop flybuys and bring in airpoints. Espe ially since Harvey Norman dropped air points
On another another note.
Will we see a trading update within the next week just to keep bumping the share price along
Hopefully WHS will start from where NZX failure stopped it abruptly . Today 3.75 !!! :t_up:
The irony. Diners was a good business decision executed poorly (and at too much expense). The ability to leverage the acquisition and build a financing capability to support retail (eg an AfterPay function, data mining of customer spend and behavior, finance deals, a reward program etc) was lost when the CFO at the time (Stephen Small) died suddenly. Without his vision it was left to the the current CEO and his carefully selected mgmt to support the changes needed. From what I heard, this never happened and became the elephant in the portfolio.
Ok, a bit lazy on my part, The Warehouse already offers a buy now pay later service using Zip.
also, there is a warehouse money visa credit card (looks like it’s an SBS product), which offers 5% off when using st the warehouse (might have to get me one of those, but I’m not sure they are still offered?)
Also they seem to use Finance Now financial services (which is also a SBS product) across the group as well for financing deals.
this follows after Warehouse sold its financial arm to SBS in 2017.
Briscoes sales update today gives further encouragement to shareholders in the retail space. Clear breakout up through the 100 day moving average so technically this provides considerable encouragement to those who have been buying on the compelling fundamentals'. This is already my #1 investment position but its really tempting to load up even more.
Jeez Briscoes make 46m on 358m ….profit margin an obscene 13% ….no wonder they trade at relatively high PEs
If TWG did that they’d be making 450m profit ….but different mix of business (esp with Noel Teeming) so their 5% profit margin respectable enough ……especially seeing it’s improving these days
Got to think Briscoes would be hitting at least $100 million NPAT full year based on that half year figure. In that light they are sitting at only 13x PE.
From Briscoes' announcement -A more relevant period to compare against would be the first half of 2 years ago. Under this more normalised comparison, the Group’s half year sales increased by 18.30%, with the first quarter increasing by 14.94% and then strengthening to an increase of 21.61% for the second quarter.
TWG did this comparison on their last sales update .... sales only up about 10% on F19
Briscoes doing better than TWG .... can't be true
Good sign though is for Briscoes the last quarter growth was better than the previous one. Hope that's the case with TWG as well.
It is worth noting too that when BGP released its Q1 sales, it said Q2 wouldn't see as large an increase as Q1 did, and it had a big warning about how the boon times couldn't continue. TO quote Q1 release:
"Despite the Group's strong start to the year we are acutely aware of the
possible pressure on consumer spending with the gradual reopening of the
country's borders. It's widely recognised that some of the increased retail
spend experienced during the last twelve months has been a reallocation of
spend which would otherwise have been used for international travel. Whilst
we do not expect to deliver the same significant increase in sales for the
second quarter as achieved in this first quarter, we are confident that sales
for the half-year will be comfortably ahead of the $292.4 million reported
for the first half of last year."
That conservative line wasn't repeated as strongly in the Q2 release - but BGP didn't release a forecast (yet).
Good retailers going very very very well for a bit yet it seems!
And WHS said As a result of the strength of trading through to the end of Q3, and the expectation that Q4 FY21 Group sales will be similar to Q3 FY21,
If that eventuates Q4 growth would only be about 9% v F19 (v's Briscoes 21% for the same quarter)
Hope not the case
it’s not a like for like business comparison though. For instance a significant fraction of WHS sales are from WS, and though those sales are relatively flat on 2019 (dragging down group wide growth comparison), they are much more profitable due to the SWAS consolidation program (pulling up group wide profit comparison).
Attachment 12809
Attachment 12810
Boom - $3.70!!
Id say it will hover now around 3.60 to 3.70-80 till the trading update. Its had a great climb on no news just estimated
3.70 close. Nice:)
Hope our mate in another thread is watching the facts opinions & past etc .. ;)
Today must have brought out some further good clues .. :)
Hope he's still about & awake .. ;)
Confirmed TA breakout and fundamentally still a VERY cheap stock. Trading update from Briscoes was very promising and showed accelerating growth in Q2 V Q1 on a like for like basis compared with 2019 sales which provides real encouragement that the retail sector has and is very strong. I see this as enduring for many years and if pressure is felt on consumers with rising interest rates the WHS will be the beneficiary as people shift to value purchases.
Very good chance of NZX50 inclusion in due course. Really looking forward to the trading update due out in the next week or two.
390 - 420 channel.
The MR B channel below ... right up there ...
Sensible target in the very short term but I see this as probably a multi year rerate as:-
1. International travel stays well below 2019 level's for many years and most of that $10 Billion a year that would otherwise be spent overseas is spent here
2. WHS overhaul their procurement, logistics, distribution and stock policies
3. Store within a store efficiencies with integration of Warehouse Stationary stores within WHS stores
4. Rationalization of their store network with a weighted average lease term across N.Z. of only 4 years
5. Ongoing growth and critical mass efficiencies from Torpedo 7
6. Ongoing strong growth of Noel Leeming.
7. Attaining critical mass with the Online market
8 Growth of online shopping for WHS
9. Possible significant enhancement of their food and grocery lines
Plenty of room for improving their business model with super cheap metrics and an exceptional fully imputed dividend yield make this an exciting high yield opportunity with very strong capital gain prospects.
Holding heaps but the greedy Beagle wants even more :blush:
This time it will surely break above $ 4 after the trading update expected next week ....Briscoes beating them to it should irk them a bit !!
But after Briscoes update market has already got a whiff of whats coming from WHS ...update or not WHS should end next week around $ 3.85
The Warehouse in Lower Hutt mall has cleared a big chunk of floor space. Gearing up for a proper grocery section maybe?
Attachment 12813
Maybe a combined warehouse stationary more likely
I hope so.
There is a warehouse stationary located just across the road from the mall where this Warehouse store is located (also a large Noel leeming which shares a car park with Warehouse stationary). If they combined the warehouse stationary into this warehouse, it would leave a good location available to open a torpedo7 store in the current stationary site, which is a brand that needs to grow in Wellington region (there is just one T7 store in Porirua City, with no presence at all in the wealthy area that is Wellington city and the Hutt)
Attachment 12814
compare that to Rebel sport & Kathmandu:
Attachment 12815
Attachment 12816
If TWG sales momentum is maintained in Q3 (even at a much lower growth rate than Briscoes) and if they maintain profit margin around 6% full year 'adjusted earnings' will be about $200m
Anything less means sales growth is slowing and/or margins have not been maintained
I'll settle for $190m adjsuted earnings
$200m earnings on 346.8m shares = 57.7 cps !!! PE of only 6.4, that's nuts.
Payout 75% of that, (new minimum is 70%) = 43.3 cps in annual dividends. Oh my goodness :blush:
43.3 cps fully imputed = 60 cps gross = 16.2% gross yield at $3.70.
These metrics are truly mind boggling and we have a clear TA breakout to provide additional encouragement...not that we need it with the fundamentals being so truly compelling.
NZX inclusion in the not too distant future too. Hmmm.
Risks are shipping costs, stock procurement challenges and Covid. Super good looking risk reward ratio in my opinion.
Normally market has never awarded very high P/E to WHS as its quality of earning is poor and consistency is low confidence
Still its going thru a purple patch due to dream scenario for retail .
I think if it can give visibility of next 2-3 years of $ 200 mil earnings and 40 cents divvy that should help it reach $ 5.50 in 6 months time !!!
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...ly-disruptions
This is only anecdotal, but while shopping on Sunday I did notice that Briscoes had significantly more stock on hand than the warehouse (this was comparing the two stores in the Lyall Bay retailer complex), in regards to comparing the homeware sections. in other areas I looked at (footwear, clothing, food) warehouse had well stocked shelves.
"16.2% gross yield at $3.70."
and the crowd goes wild....
What's a 5% drop all about?
Bounce down more please...
Lol - some idiot made a large “market” order I’m guessing. Congrats to anyone who picked up the temporary bargain price.
Yeah good work allright 3.58. I was to slow:(
Pitty did not last and that could be it im afraid unless someone else has a large stack of shares they arnt putting through an off market sale.
However anything under 3.80 might turn out to be a bargin if MR B is right ... yet again.
Nice price range at 3.67...and perhaps some below ..can you have enough of these?