Thanks everyone!
I'm still quite amazed that they grew total sales yoy, with 5 weeks of in NZ in level 4 when they weren't even allowed to ship non essential goods.
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Thanks everyone!
I'm still quite amazed that they grew total sales yoy, with 5 weeks of in NZ in level 4 when they weren't even allowed to ship non essential goods.
yes its to late to increase the holdings - to slow again yesterday morning. The forum has ramped the price already!!! Mr B, MR C are market movers!!!!
Everyone must have decided to spend there time in lock down who do not ride bikes , ON LINE SHOPPING!!!
You have a consumer lead economy in the cities.
We increased early yesterday before MR B made his announcement to 8% of the NZX trading portfolio and about 2.75% over the combined portfolios.
Now you may wonder how we track all this stuff and yes ....!
On the 6th of July I postulated that if HLG were doiong as well as KMD then a 40 cents dividend for the year was on the cards which would surge the share price. Seems that they may indeed do 40 cents with two back-to-back dividends. Glad I held on to my holdings of just over 50,000 shares bought at $2.71 to $2.93 back in Feb to June 2017.
Yeah it really makes you think about how good this company really is.
I think I've probably been excessively conservative with my 16.5 cps final divvy assumption. If I rework my dividend valuation model on sustainable annual dividends of 35 cps going forward (which still seems fairly conservative given the company has grown a lot in recent years so one could argue the 16 year average of 31.5 cps is excessively conservative as it picks up too much really old data) then that gives 35 / 0.72 = 48.61 cps per annum gross and on a 9% expected gross yield that suggests the value is $5.40.
On an earnings basis a modest no growth PE of 11.5 on this years earnings gives 11.5 x 46.3 = $5.32.
I think I have to therefore upgrade my valuation to the mid point of those two figures = $5.36 which must be a record quick upgrade for me and of course completely unaffected by me now having a stake in these shares :D
Jeepers, moving like a bullet train...may be $6 is the realistic target as per Snow Leopard's view :eek2:
Low volume though so far..
I sold as a capital preservation measure pre Covid earlier this year at an average of $6.00. Without the risk of Covid, I agree that it is worth at least $6 as I was a very happy holder until Covid came along. Now we're living with it for a while I don't anticipate raising my $5.36 valuation for quite some time.
No question HLG's result has stunned the market and shown incredible resilience in the face of adversity.
Make you mind up Beagle, using a shotgun approach to valuation is cheating. Pick a number and stick to it.
Definitely worth $6 unless it isn't and that is my final definitive word.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/78637a4e7...8cad114b03.png
Happy with $5.36...you can add in the 15 cents we get back in a couple of weeks if you like and we'll call it $5.51 :) Definitely worth at the very least $6 if the world can get on top of Covid with an effective vaccine. No question it was an eye popping forecast :) https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...RST&ajaxhist=0