http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-cycle/52277536#52277536
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http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-cycle/52277536#52277536
iNTERESTING .....?
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Percy, I find that unless you have conviction in your selection, it is easy to sell when the going gets tough. Why are you holding if you don't know why?
Also, you seem well diversified. So much so, i wonder how your returns compare to the nzx 50? May as well buy the index?
Good luck
I lost my convictions and my shirt in GFC,by holding large positions in EBO[did well], while SCY halved,and PGC and NPX had to recap.
What I did learn was not to hold too few stocks. Stocks held should have strong balance sheets,and be in a position to incease dividends.
Well last year I certainly out performed the NZX 50,and I think all funds.You may have noted I came second in Aussie competition last year with 140% or more with companies I held.
My hobby is the sharemarket,so index would be no fun at all.Don't knows, may be changed to I am almost certain? SKT a week ago was a strong hold.Today SP under pressure,yet yield is over 10% and SKY will lose few subscribers,yet business model is weakened.Now a strong watch!
I also hold a wide portfolio of small cap Aussie companies.Not a lot of money in any one company, although the way some have performed they are getting sizable.
Arr, it appears you definitely a buy and holder. Well done on your achievements so far. I note you still have SKL. I would have sold that after the first profit warning. But i think this stock should now benefit from the drop in currency.
I think HNZ Is now the cheapest stock on the exchange. All others seem expensive (or at least not cheap) and prone to drop if there are further market corrections.
SKL.Brought at a lot lower SP than today.The reasons I am holding are:
1/ strong board with skin in the game.
2/David Mair appears to be a fantastic CEO.
3/Paying a good dividend.
4/Very little debt.
5/Slow down with pumps and liners will recover.
6/Building a new factory.[Old one is as old as the hills].
7/New factory will have all new machinery.So I expect staff and general cost savings.
If I sold I may get my timing wrong buying back in.
HNZ.We agree.Next year's fully imputed 6cents divie is going to drive the SP.Would any funds manager hold HNZ,or would it be in any index?Not a bad hobby to have?
It is great having a hobby that makes you money. Hnz will be on fund managers radars soon.
... correct me if I'm wrong, this is more of a contemplation than a reality but it would be good to get an idea of whether this is likely from someone with experience.
Are we likely to see (or are already seeing) an exodus of international investment in equities now that our dollar is falling (cash out of high NZ dollar while it's still strong), and a buy-back when it looks to have rested at its low - using the stronger relative position of the fallen NZ dollar to reinvest in the markets??
I guess there's no real questions in here, more - is this a factor with the falling markets, and an equities revival point when the dollar stabilises at its low?
Terry Hall's article
Currency speculators pull claws out of kiwi
Remember this thought though... the TA dollar watchers began seeing this drop at the beginning of May... 8 weeks ago!!! The media is late in picking this up......cashing up Equities (property??), switching currencies so not to be exposed to the possible invisible double whammy seemed a good idea last month and makes perfect investment sense for everyone ..huh ..but the downunder currencies drop broke TA support so now the smart stay away and away we go in a currency downtrend
But hey what you don't see doesn't hurt you...right?
An interesting day for NZX, DJI fell last night, China down 5.3% due to tighten policy.
NZX seems to have less implications by those overseas market and walking alone.
Yes The two indexes are back in Sync (sort of) since the reversal point and as you say Bull NZX50 falls aren't as great as the AORDs..
The gap between the two indexes are narrowing towards parity :)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...5025062013.gif
Not extreme at all Moosie
This present scenario is the ideal time for a drop in the PE Ratio.... a PE under 10 (remember we are speaking CAPE) is more likely with economic growth than with stagnant growth.. P is forward looking and E is at last reporting.
P is in a downtrend as investors fret over Global events and lose focus on local events.
E is going up due to favourable NZ business/economy cycle.
Sellers outnumber Bargain Hunters
Available money diminishing....Money exiting NZ (NZ is not considered a safe Haven)
Smart money sidelined awaiting recovery
Yep, there might be a bull trap coming........or not. I guess they have a 50% chance of being right.
EW theory is something I can't grasp...I can see the waves in hindsight ..sometimes ...:)...it just gets too complicated.....sub waves and sub sub waves...meh!!.. ..all you need is sub wave to be misinterpreted and the thing is wrong ..Pure EW like most other predictions into the future fails to produce significant < 85% results...so I leave this discipline to the EW followers. The guru in this area is Robert Prechter and if you followed his advice via his newsletters over the years you wouldn't have much money left to invest. Phaedrus did an analysis of Prechters results ..its somewhere on ST.
EW is an discipline involving investor social behaviour ...Analysing Investor behaviour is my discipline area also, but the closest to EW I get is the boundary touching points within a pattern and also if I need extra confirmation on Support and resistance lines I may use the Fibonacci Retacement...I unlike the EW purists don't rely on one single discipline I use a few disciplines and use them to confirm each other...the same idea as using more than TA indicator to confirm a result...the lining up of the ducks effect:)
Moosie if you really want to go down the EW track and learn and discuss about it... PM Dumbass he is the expert in this field on ST.
My thoughts on the Market.......Most Market Indexes are broken (TA-wise) at the moment so common sense says keep out... Phaedrus MSI indicator is the best tool to indicate that broken concept.. I'm guessing the MSI is red for most global indexes...see Trackers he has Phaedrus's MSI formulae you will need Metastock software and history data to run it.
Where to from here?............for the NZX50 watch that 4335 support line.... This line orginates from the overheated 2007 market double (5) tops so it has secular meaning and could be of major importance..if the 4335 breaks the bull get sick but its not the end of the bull... The bull often dances with the MA200 line and rallys off it.. Atm the MA200 is at 4200 and rising....However dropping down below MA200 with a bit distance south of the MA200 is showing a bear trait and perhaps a dead bull.
Sub waves (not the EW kind) are corrections within a correction ....lower highs and lower lows
You always get at least correction (rally) within a correction...these rallies top out around an old support now resistance point
It usually caused by bargain hunters out numbering the sellers.
If the bargain hunters are of "the top up of my investments" type then this type of rally becomes unsustainable when the hunters are satisfied and become 100% "in"
China down 3.8% so far, another country crash after Japan.