Never mind if a bunch of thieves, child killers and rapists getting their way, if its only good for your investments :t_up:
What kind of person are you :scared:?
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". . . deliberately target civilian buildings, and civilian infrastructure. . . "
But that's not what TASS was saying earlier in the year (28th February)
https://tass.com/defense/1412703
"28 Feb, 09:51
Kiev regime’s leaders to be inevitably punished - Russian Defense Ministry
The civilian population is not at risk, the Defense Ministry said
MOSCOW, February 27. /TASS/.
The Kiev regime’s ringleaders and their minions will be tracked down and inevitably and properly punished, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told a news briefing on Sunday.
"All faces, voices, telephones, whereabouts, IP-addresses and messages among all Ukrainian Nazis, who are responsible for humiliation and torture of our comrades are being identified and put on record. The same concerns the ringleaders of the Kiev regime and their minions, who call for torture of Russian soldiers in violation of the prisoners-of-war treatment convention. All of you will be tracked down and inevitably and properly punished," he said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24 said in an early morning televised address he had launched a special military operation in Ukraine in response to a request for help from the leaders of the Donbass republics. He stressed that Moscow had no plans for an occupation of Ukrainian territories. The sole purpose is the country’s demilitarization and denazification. The Russian Defense Ministry has said that its forces are not attacking cities, key military infrastructures being its main targets. The civilian population is not at risk, the Defense Ministry said."
More German style appeasement or potentially stopping WW-III ?
Olaf Scholz’s peace mission to China
German leader went to Beijing more to prevent war than to promote trade and investment
"He added, “Germany is willing to continue to deepen economic and trade cooperation with China, and supports enterprises of the two countries to conduct investment cooperation in each other. … The world needs a multipolar pattern, and the role and influence of emerging countries deserve attention. … Germany will play its due role in promoting the development of EU-China relations.”
The key words in the chancellor’s public statements were, of course, opposition to “decoupling” and the need for a “multipolar pattern.”"
Hint: Americans don't like to hear that word "Multipolar" !
https://asiatimes.com/2022/11/olaf-s...sion-to-china/
Why Putin can’t negotiate his way out of Ukraine
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe...out-of-ukraine
I think this is as good an answer as any to my question about impact of the Ukraine deciding to negotiate.
Karen Finerman on CNBC said this morning said that if "peace breaks out" it will be overall bullish for the market but may impact oil negativily.
My oil tilt is almost gone completely now. I miss it already - oil will almost certainly continue to rally now that I've sold:) On the bright side, money has been recycled into value ETFs like VYMI and VYM which are 10 per cent energy. Better than nothing.
Watch out naive, stupid, little Five-Eyes New Zealand...
China taking ‘aggressive’ steps to gut Canada’s democracy, warns Trudeau
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...justin-trudeau
watch out indeed.... wonder what they are up to in NZ...
https://www.spiegel.de/international...f-58b395b946aa
Edit: sorry wrong thread.
The United States military is immensely generous with it's thoughts and resources.
Here's more than you ever wanted to know about Korea - this time courtesy of the US Air Force.
https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/0...SUE%202022.PDF
In which the Authentic Voice of the US Foreign Policy Establishment wonders if history is repeating or merely rhyming:
Foreign Affairs:
Putin’s Stalin Phase - Isolated, Paranoid, and Ever More Like the Soviet Dictator
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russi...-stalin-phase?
Similar here - looks more and more like Yevgeny Prigozhin is running a parallel government, or will be...
Putin's Elite Tremble as Hardliners Call for ‘Stalinist’ Steps
Kremlin tolerance of outspoken calls for ‘Stalinist’ measures sows alarm among insiders.
"Prigozhin has appeared wearing the Hero of Russia medal, the country’s highest honor, but how frequently he and Putin meet remains unclear. Some Kremlin insiders said Prigozhin now meets with the president more often than before, while others said he’s not a member of the small group of hardliners closest to Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “There are lots of rumors about Prigozhin. We don’t have any intention to comment on them.""
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-putin-s-elite
What will Albanese decide to do ?
US warns Australia against joining treaty banning nuclear weapons
US embassy in Canberra says treaty ‘would not allow for US extended deterrence relationships’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...uclear-weapons
Let's hope the Dems do OK...the Repubs seem "unhinged" by comparison...
Five reasons Kiwis should care about the US midterm elections
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/1304...term-elections
Russian troops ordered to retreat from Kherson in face of Ukrainian advance
Loss of only regional capital captured by Moscow since invasion began will come as significant blow to Vladimir Putin
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nce-on-kherson
The view from The Economist is that a Trump endorsement is broadly speaking an asset in the Republican Party primaries, but verges on a liability in the actual election.
Consider ourselves warned...
China ‘increasingly disruptive global power’, says Canadian foreign minister
Mélanie Joly hints at new Indo-Pacific strategy and asks firms to be clear-eyed in business with China
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...reign-minister
Biden hails US midterm elections as 'good day for democracy'
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/us-can...-for-democracy
US midterm elections: ‘This is on Trump’: Brutal election backlash begins
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-...G63QDACCFFR2E/
Enlighten yourself of who & what your adversary really is before you engage in war :
https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSR35Wsx9/
Think we in the West understand China as an adversary?
What's at the end of the road? Nigeria and the Belt and Road.
https://thediplomat.com/2022/11/what...belt-and-road/
Russia is probably mining, and laying booby traps in Kherson. The unconscionable assault on Civilian life continues. What Nazis did to Soviets, Russia is now doing to Ukraine.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...ary-casualties
Thought an update might be in order...remember poor old Syria ?
Report on Armed Conflict in Syria and U.S. Response
https://news.usni.org/2022/11/09/rep...eid=cc0f71bf89
The new era of decoupling, deglobalisation and economic war
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/th...economic%20war
This man is onto it...
Preserving an Australian submarine capability: a wicked problem hedged
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/pr...oblem%20hedged
Excellent snapshot of the Rare-earth's monopoly conundrum...
Breaking China’s near monopoly on rare earths will be easier said than done
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/br...%20than%20done
Presumably NZ piggy-backs on Australia's capability ?
Can Australia’s munitions supplies stand up to the demands of war?
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ca...nds%20of%20war
Insight's into a critical issue...
US–Australia information sharing: a self-inflicted Achilles’ heel
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/us-australia-information-sharing-a-self-inflicted-achilles-heel/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Stra tegist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_a 1437a6f005dda032bf09271bb4799e7&utm_source=Campaig nMonitor&utm_term=USAustralia%20information%20shar ing%20a%20self-inflicted%20Achilles%20heel
"Whatever the solutions, they must be more comprehensive and forward-leaning than the reforms adopted over the past 20 years. And they must be implemented urgently. Our strategic environment is degrading at an alarming rate, and the speed and diversity of modern threats we face—including misinformation, hypersonic missiles, cyberattacks, space threats and artificial-intelligence-enabled operations—make our current information- and intelligence-sharing practices look positively ancient."
Kherson situ...
Ukrainian troops approach outskirts of Kherson after taking key town
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...son-russia-war
Markets performance over the next 5 years will be decided on this stuff?
https://www.spiegel.de/international...e-5d91bdb0849f
And from Germany - another take on the Ring Cycle
Germany's "ring exchange" of tanks to avoid directly arming Ukraine got off to a slow start. But some experts see it as the prelude to a shift in German security policy.
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-tank-...ion/a-63702660
Nato in the Pacific ?
U.S. Pacific Allies Want to Work Together to Blunt Chinese Nuclear Threat
https://news.usni.org/2022/11/10/u-s...eid=cc0f71bf89
Is this just the start ...
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/11/b...sis/index.html
Need to mark the victory of Kherson...retreat will take at least a week...
Ukraine troops enter centre of Kherson as Russians retreat in chaos
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...m-kherson-city
Looking good for Democrats...with California and Nevada to come in...
Democrats await Nevada election result that could seal their Senate majority
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/dem...ty-2022-11-12/
Someone isn't going to be around very long!
Vladimir Putin stays silent as propagandists try to justify Kherson retreat
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe...herson-retreat
"On Saturday, Russian strategist Alexander Dugin described Kherson as a Russian city and said that its surrender was a disgrace. He also suggested that Putin should be replaced as Russia’s leader.
“We give the ruler absolute power to save all of us… but what if he isn’t doing this?” he said.
“How to get out of this situation? Immediately move from a sovereign to a commissar dictatorship.”"
Update...
The vanishing billions: FTX crypto collapse shockwaves spread (Reuters ?)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...PWK5JR5PKZIYU/
Is This Crypto’s Lehman Moment? (NYT)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/is-this-cryptos-lehman-moment/D576DIR3MNARPKMQ7KSAQQNIKE/
Exclusive: At least $1 billion of client funds missing at FTX
https://www.reuters.com/markets/curr...es-2022-11-12/
FTX says it’s removing trading and withdrawals, moving digital assets to a cold wallet after a $477 million suspected hack
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/12/ftx-...cted-hack.html
Senate sorted, next the House...
Democrats retain control of Senate after crucial victory in Nevada
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...elections-2022
After the damage Trump and Republicans have caused globally - here's hoping !
Raskin: Trump could 'destroy' Republican party
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...08786f8dfae0c0
Yevgeny Prigozhin (Wagner Group founder) could possibly be Russia's next leader...
Video shows sledgehammer execution of Russian mercenary
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...eo-2022-11-13/
Biden to warn Xi North Korea’s path could prompt bigger U.S. military
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/12/bide...-military.html
I'm finishing up here - done my best over the last wee while. Maybe some Uni will use this archive as a study example one day...
With China risks coming, my key message is below...one last time...
New Zealand’s dangerous strategic apathy in an uncertain age
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/
If I can get people to read this one thing the above is it!
Thanks for your contributions esp GTM, BlackPeter & Waltzing - cheers guys.
Thank you Davexl for all your interesting posts,and links to great articles.
Thanks Davexl for all your posts.
I read the article you post. A good read. Yes NZ cant defend itself because of under investment in the military. However i do wonder.. say we increase the budget back to 3% or say even to 10% of GDP.. its still going to be a teeny tiny spend and not buy much to stop the proposed Chinese invasion
If the USA military crumbled away i would start voting in a way to shore up our military. Ensure there are enough weapons available for the people to take up arms against some foreign aggressor. But until such time i am happy for the stance our governments have taken over the last couple of decades. USA/AUS/UK are reliable protectors of the free world democracy system
Thank You. You did add value, not just by providing lots of interesting links I normally would not come across.
And yes- this recent article provides lots of food for thought;
Hope you still might pop by from time to time if you find something particularly intriguing.Quote:
Yet against human-triggered strategic risk, New Zealand stands nearly naked. Setting aside reliance on the ‘rules-based international order’, which couldn’t protect Georgia or Ukraine, there are two ways to defend one’s home soil—directly with organic assets, or indirectly through treaties with strong allies. New Zealand has neither.
You have provided us with regular updates and interesting reading. Thank you for your efforts.
Thanks for your posts and links. The hope of peaceful co-existence between West and East, felt in my youth with the fall of the Berlin Wall, has been finally been shattered by the letter Z as witnessed in so many of your links. I hope for not too long though.
How much longer can NZ bask in the After-glow of our Nuclear friends?
Thanks for the thread.
It's been interesting and I've learned a few things along the way.
Travel safe.
Regular reader. Lots of insights and background information not otherwise always easily accessed. A great effort on your part over an extended period Davexl.
Many thanks for your contributions and all the best for the future.
Thanks guys for all your contributions and for reading the damn articles! Cheers - Davexl
Thanks for your time Davexl it’s been great to come on this site and get recent updates which I probably wouldn’t have seen. I remember you had a break from it one other time but hope to see you back in time.
Well done everyone... its been a long winter and everyeone deserves some sunny D on the beach.
Peace in our time?
really is anyone going to believe that guy in china?
NAA... is biden really drinking the cool aid?
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/14/bide...i-jinping.html
NZ has a defence policy?
why did we scrape those fighter jets?
even my military cousins in high paid jobs in wellington say " who are we fighting? who is the enemy?"
and this is THIS YEAR! Wellington does not think we have an enemy any time soon or in fact anytime in the future....
Thats right... they arnt expecting any fighting in the pacific any time soon.... or ever...
I think your question re defence strategy is a good one. I suppose if there is one, than we are not privy to it. But hold on - maybe I've got it: the government just reintroduces in case of an attack the MIQ requirement and all attacking enemies get sorted out by our army during their MIQ period.
Problem solved ... this ensures as well that they can't come faster than we can process them :p ;
Your other question I am not so sure about. What good are fighter jets with a range of less than 2000 km for an island somewhere in the middle of nowhere? Hardly effective and very expensive when they come down. What we need is lots of transport capacity (Hercules, but please well maintaned, not the junk they use to transport our PM), an army capable to fight in the jungle (to meet the enemy somewhere on the islands in the Pacific before they hit our shores), a proper navy and lots of ground - air, ground - ship, ship - air and ship - ship missiles. Round this up with lots of cheap drones (air as well as sea). This will sort it.
Russia continues its attack on Ukraine’s power grid. What does NATO provide for, if one of its members is attacked (I presume) unintentionally.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...1ee71b52ff9d52
Missile hits Poland.
Now to see if NATO lives up to its creed or as it is commonly with derision referred to as :
‘No Action Talk Only’
BP must be a reason to have some planes... little ones with one seat and some rockets... arr missles...
how about some f35's vertical lift for operations ... and that would support R&D effects and it come with free trade deals...
come on some f35's ... go big or go home...
its about pulling one weight in ... air frames... they could become platforms for drone swarms...
rent them out to the ukraine ...become a global arms dealer ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNEUkkoUoIA
.
New Zealand has pretensions to playing an active role in the Pacific. This brings into play the tyranny of distance, and the balance between hard and soft power.
For hard power it needs long range patrol aircraft - be they manned or unmanned - with the capacity to carry both offensive and defensive armament, and long range transport aircraft - preferably able to be fitted with palletized weapons systems.
There’s also a requirement for a long range maritime capability – for warship, support, and sealift roles.
Winning hearts and minds is tricky, but they do need to be won, and designed correctly, the New Zealand armed forces could easily maintain a dual role – military and civilian – in New Zealand’s little corner of the Pacific with both area denial and civil defence/disaster relief capabilities.
Policy, policy, policy. It’s bl**dy tricky, is policy, but it’s got to be done and done well. . . .
IMO it’s unlikely that NATO will respond with a declaration of war based upon this specific incident. However, a proportionate response is necessary. This could see delivery to Ukraine of further air defence systems and the longer range & more advanced weaponry that has been previously requested.
Deploying air defence systems in neighbouring countries such as Poland, might also be on the agenda.
Russia’s response to the incident in Poland will be interesting. Will they claim it to be a false flag operation, designed to allow the west to declare war on the much-maligned Russia? Will Russia claim it was simply an accident? Will Russia simply deny it was their missile and continue on unabated?
unfortunately GTM has some very sensable suggestions and there goes the F35's... some fighter jock will be very dissappointed ....
why not rename to GMT...
Well, I guess the answer is as usual - it depends ... though lets face it - for a country like NZ fighter jets never made sense. Fighter jets are good to fight fighter jets ... and who would send fighter jets to attack NZ? They just don't have enough range.
On top of that - there are these days much cheaper ways to down fighter jets than owning some yourself. Buy yourself a Gepard and pay less than $100 in ammunition per downed enemy fighter jet ...
Even some of these hand held heat seeking missiles (e.g. Stingers) are ways cheaper than the fighter jets itself and bloody accurate.
The other situation when you want them is when you need to protect your bomber fleets. Just remember me - how many bombers does NZ have?
See.
I have little doubt that the missiles that hit poland were either a) stray russian missiles trying to hit western ukraine and were an accident or b) ukranian anti aircraft missiles trying to intercept russian missiles heading for western ukraine. In any event, the loss of life is entirely russia's fault, but from a completely pragmatic point of view it was an accident and best to let it slide. Issue all the harshly worded condemnations, gather for photo ops, blah blah blah, and that I reckon is all that will happen and ought to happen. Russia would never have purposely bombed some rural target in poland. Russia is losing to Ukraine and the fact is if Poland decided to enter the war with their advanced military that russia would lose doubly quick, and NATO followed Poland, russia would be anhiliated on the battle field.
Russia's military performance in ukraine is probably the most embarrassing military spectacle over the last 100 years and no way would they want to make it worse. Logic should prevail.
Opportunism should prevail.
Anything in the air within 100km of the Polish/Ukranian border should be treated as hostile, and the launch site whacked.
NATO - backing off as to be expected.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe...russian-attack
Chairman of US Joint Chiefs on Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...op-u-s-general
NATO - no action, talk only.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/rus...E2AD6KVMTQJCU/
Meanwhile, is Senegal at the end of the Chinese Belt or the end of the Chinese Road?
https://thediplomat.com/2022/11/dont...als-president/
Geopolitical economy from Iran.
https://en.irna.ir/news/84945849/The...-claim-or-fact
What else will unravel with the CSTO?
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/w...-security-bloc
https://www.politico.eu/article/vlad...ting-from-war/
EU accuses US of profiting from war.
Central Asia - the Drone Wars?
https://thediplomat.com/2022/11/dawn...-central-asia/
Cold war? oh no we are told there is no new cold war.... still in the old one?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ermany-should/
The support the US has been sending Ukraine is top notch ...
Sending materials to help repair their power grids and now the patriot missile defence.
Interesting documentary
https://fb.watch/htRO2OrF_l/
... and here is some sort of obituary for the "invincible" Russian forces and their maker:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-ukraine.html
Worthwhile reading ... but you need some time.
A good article, and all very well, but in spite of all that coverage, and all that detail, of Russian incompetence, Russian corruption, Russian doctrinal failure, Russian military chaos, Russian technological erosion Russian mistakes, and all the other Russian failures, Russia is still in Ukraine, and Ukraine is still getting devastated, and no end is in sight.
War does not exist in a policy vacuum, war is “the continuation of policy by other means”.
So what’s happening, not on the ground, not in the war, not in the land of wishful thinking, not what people might like to happen, not even what should happen but in Moscow, in Kyiv, in Washington, in Warsaw, in Tehran, in London, in Paris, in Beijing at the policy level?
Because that, not on the battlefield,is where the resolution lies.
That's certainly correct, though - what's happening on the battlefield is obviously one of the inputs for the various policies. And no doubt - a mega strong bully like Putin ganging up with similar minded autocrats in Iran, Syria and China is despite his ineptness able to beat up a (in comparison) primary school kid like Ukraine for a long time and really bad.
And this is what he is doing. Three of the worst Mongrel Mob hitmen with help of a fourth grown up criminal beating up one single school child. Again and again and again.
So - what would you propose to do to solve this problem?
But that would be just a tactical decision as part of running the war, wouldn't it? I guess it certainly would impact Russia's ability to supply the attack, but it might be not quite easy (at least for Ukraine and its weapons) to strike deep into Russia. This is something NATO would need to do. But don't forget, the bully Putin still threatens to push the nuclear button ... and the West is clearly afraid of this threat. It would be just too difficult to explain Western voters why it it might be ok if in this case a handful of western cities might disappear from the map.
What policy decisions would you propose?
Same question, different place. . . what happens if "they" lose?
https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/supp...wan-what-then/
When the Europeans turned on one another in the C20th, the Americans did well economically even after they joined in militarily. Afterwards the US economy boomed. Brits had debts to pay and the Americans got to use parts of the Empire as its bases. They also received Marshall aid but that came with strings attached, It wasn’t until 2006 that the UK paid back its last War Loan to the USA. So Yep The USA comes out further on top of Europe, after each European War.
I have always thought and its possibly "urban myth but part truth" that the second world was was really a huge transfer of wealth from the UK to the USA, and pretty much the end of the UK empire and that the US "extorted" the UK during the war and got them to pay for everything and this is what started the huge rise of the US economically.
So it is possible that this myth has some legs after all. I did not know that the UK was paying the US back till 2006. Astonishing.
No point in pointing fingers or feeling sorry for the UK.
Britain used to be just another disgusting empire build on the blood and the bones of the people they robbed, enslaved and exploited. Not better or worse than any other empire before them.
The British empire in the early 20th century was already well past its "best before date" and just going downhill - same as the Roman empire went down the gurgler a couple of milenia before, same as the Durch empire went down some centuries before, same as the Russian empire is expiring right now ... and potentially same as the US will go down quite soon (we shall see, though the Chines admittedly behave quite idiotic if they want to take over.
Empires are born, grow, thrive and die - all caused by their own actions (and typically over some centuries), and sure - on the way down they harvest what they did sow.
Agree. Just imagine a world without cricket!
I guess all countries have in the past things to be ashamed of as well as things to be proud of. And yes, we inherited from Britain as well the Magna Carta and a sort of funny justice system (but better than none), Plum Pudding, Shakespeare, the habit to cook vegetables until they are greyish and tasteless and a funny way to pronounce otherwise easy to spell words of Germanic and Latin origin.
You are right - all was not bad, and I never said that ... it was just another empire behaving like empires do.
My point (in my response to blackcap) was that it is not the fault of the US that the British empire went down the gurgler ... they did this all by themselves ... and now after BREXIT they are going to give themselves the rest! Good we are at least these days not anymore an appendix of the British empire, isn't it? Hey, this is really good :t_up:.