A lot of red arrows today :(
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A lot of red arrows today :(
S&P500 is retracing from the top of the channel so not surprising. top was 2848 currently bottom 2750 up trending channel , fangs savaged not surprising either most of the nasdaq advance is due to the fang stcks so its good to see them de fanged for a while .. healthy.
nz50 consolidating but looking heavy, asx looking better for me at the moment been ever waiting it seems for it to make new all time highs.
Finally, there was a broad sell-off of technology stock. Big names are falling. After FB, Baidu, and Alibaba also having some sell-off.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/27/the-...aboolainternal
The market finally may be ready for a big rotation
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bu...ors-2018-08-02
Bull market in stocks could be in ‘last innings’ as bears set sights on strongest sectors
I'm not that sold on this, I feel as though we hear about this every year that the market has finally topped out and then it doesn't. Its been a very strong earnings season in the US, not sure what FB has to do with representing the whole market all of a sudden. I still remember the FB IPO at $36 being called overvalued because its a company with nothing behind it. Oh the short term thinking does funny things to your brain.
There are people who have been on the sidelines from 2016, maybe even earlier that have lost out on once in a life time gains with the mentality that once it drops they'll come into it which I don't believe at all.
Time in the market > Timing the market
+1
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch
I know several people who sold out of my local property market in 2011-3 and have sat on the sidelines paying escalating rents and watching prices continue to climb to the point where they can no longer afford to buy back in. I get a lot of "it can't last," "it's way out of touch with reality" and "it's going to be one hell of a crash when the bubble bursts" whenever we meet up - it started getting repetitive a long time ago. I'm sure that one day the market will go down, possibly by a lot just like it has historically, but it would have to be a return to great depression levels to have justified selling out so early.
Have they really lost out on a once in a lifetime gain? Or are they waiting for another (perhaps even better) opportunity to make their gains?
At some point the market will fall and it will rise again. It's likely it will happen several times over the period of a lifetime. Just because the past two years have been good does not mean it won't happen like that again.
If the market begins to roll over tomorrow and loses 30% of its value then once it reaches the bottom those people who have been on the sidelines will be in a very similar position to those that bought and held throughout it all. It's easy to proclaim that the buy and hold strategy is the best when everything is at all time highs.
If we have another GFC type event where approx 40-50% plus is wiped from the market (depending on which market you're looking at) then when it gets to the bottom those people who sat patiently and waited are actually better off than all of those that bought and held. Not to mention they surely would have had considerably less stress in their lives too.
There's a load of different ways to profit from the market, and people will use whatever strategy they think works best for them and their situation but to suggest that these people have missed out on once in a lifetime gains is way off the mark IMO. I believe that unless you're laying on your death bed then there's always another opportunity! :)
So value_investor what's your strategy? Are you going to take these "once in a lifetime gains" that you've accumulated over the past two years and cash them in now? Or do you plan on cashing them in later? Or perhaps never at all? How do you decide when to take profit and when to sit tight?
Most of the time I don't. Not speaking for anyone else, but I mostly focus on cash flows and expectations of longer term dividend/rental growth. It may not be a strategy for producing market-beating returns, but it pays the bills. Down turns are opportunities to top up the portfolio.
As you say, there are many ways to play the markets.
gotta love the us market its rocking , actually it seems everytime trump talks about china and tarriffs it goes up lol perverse eh. anyway seems to be near top of channel now s&p500 abot 10 handles
Dont think there is going to be any irrational exuberance this time though before the falls, just the dawning realisation that there is nothing left to prop the mkts up, not even fake news.
gotta consider earnings are propelling the market , even next years forward earnings dont look unreasonable at 17x for the market not high by traditional standards. also a trillion dollars of buybacks coming too.
thats what some people mis calculated was the strenght of earnings and they sold out way to early
An "emotional" talking-up of the American market...
Reminds me of the hormonal rush of physical activity a couple of months before lemmings.. do the lemming thing.
us market place to be nasdaq up a nice 15% this yr led by the fangs compare to nz 5%. nice etf on the nasdaq with unbelievable low fees park and ride lol hope some other lemmings are enjoying the ride. roll on 100k nasdaq haha one day maybe a
lol shrewd can certainly spin it.
just trying to cheer myself up with some good news bad day at the office today in aus sold my tah, sto yesterday to soon and day traded ecx for peanuts yesterday when i should have held overnight so have to cheer one self up with something thats going well.
Got the annual report today. Never had one just stapled in the top left corner before, (not bound up nicely). Suppose as long as its saving the company a few pennies that's okay.
Might burn it for heating after reading it...its getting a little cold in the tent. Big crossing today at just $3.01 proves the current price is not just some aberration of lack of depth between buyers and sellers. But no worries, now that Cindy is back and telling us she is going to confront the lack of business confidence head on we're all good.
Suppose she thinks flashing her pearly white's and splashing a few photo's of her new baby around the woman's magazines and we'll all be good and start spending again.
Noticed AHG, (Large vehicle retailer with widespread operations across multiple brands in Australia and New Zealand) in Aussie tanking in recent months too. Maybe this lack of confidence really is starting to bite ? Maybe a PE of 10 is all we're good for while Cindy and her merry band of "experts" leads us down into Alice in wonderland territory is all we're good for, for the foreseeable future ?
Gosh that would sheet the target price back down to $3.10-$3.20
Disc: Glad I sold half at $3.15 after it failed to kick on after the national rah rah sessions, (opps I meant road show sessions).
(Disc: Hound has his cynical hat on today in case anyone is wondering)
Gloomy not black , slipped onto the wrong thread guys? You are talking about Turners i take it. To cheer you up look at Big Brother the $14 Carsales .com ASX ,CAR, something for TRA to really aspire to.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/08/chin...including.html
holding up reasonably well considering latest tarriff tit for tat although we are at near top of channel
china slowing?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nomy-trade-war
rolled over from the top of channel , looks like turkey upset trump
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/us-m...s-on-edge.html
wonder if phil goff would ban trump speaking in auckland? off topic
Currencies which had great run over the last 10 years are having correction.Quote:
Don’t blame the cycle
Eg: NZD
Some say dovish RBNZ and concerns over European bank exposure to Turkey sent NZD/USD lower. Clearly, there was some weakness for NZD. Only thing is petrol prices will go up unless oil drop significantly. On the other hand export sector will benefit. I heard RBNZ is bullish on the economy but left rates at 1.75% until end of 2020.
As I said Bollard tried that first Western economy to lift rates post GFC from memory ...only to turn around and cut ..
With the Aussie property market coming off the boil and looking a bit suspect , Auckland flat I think we have time on our side ... as indicated by the statement on Thursday .
With the current business confidence do you think it’s prudent to get ahead of the curve that might not eventuate ?
First you have to seriously call into question the way inflation is being measured and the weightings given to various elements of the CPI. Accomodation needs a serious increase in its weighting imo. If this was done you’d see true inflation as higher than currently reported.
Then you have a number of pretty strong inflationary pressures going on..
Large swathes of the working population getting pay rises some of them fairly significant (teachers, nurses..)
Min wage increasing
Petrol price increases both through taxation and low NZD.
They could be in for so some quick hikes when they come or maybe they end up coming sooner than 2020 we will have to wait and see.
Not sure the comment about post GFC bollard can be extrapolated to our very healthy economic state of today.
Yes, inflation is raging at the moment. Throw in accommodation and the absolute biggest drag on the economy, local authority expenditure and the resultant property taxation and other charges, and you'd have a much much bigger inflation rate. My electricity bill has more or less stayed the same over the last 10 years, maybe even reduced a little. My phone and internet bill is as cheap as chips. My local authority rates, however, go up and up and up, over 5% this year alone. Amazing. By hey, inflation is just 1%! LOL
I agree that the quoted inflation rate is laughable. However my electricity rate with Trustpower has gone up by 35% since 2010. That's not my bill, but the rate they charge. As for petrol I have no record of the price at the pump last time the price per barrel was at present rates, but it sure as hell wasn't $2.35 per litre. Bring on the cheap EVs and solar roof.
Annual June 2018 ”Tradables” component of CPI is +O.1% while “non-Tradables” was +2.5%
(Geek note:Tradables are goods and services that are imported or are in competition with foreign goods and services, either in domestic or foreign markets. Non-tradables are goods and services that do not face foreign competition)
I reckon that tradables bit is going to increase quite a lot in the next few months and the non-tradables won’t get less .......net impact is?
I installed gas hot water and heating in 2007 so while my personal bill is lower through substitution, I take your point that overall inflation is higher. Unfortunately there is no way I can substitute out of my local authority rates. I'm seriously considering moving. I'll be challenging my property value next year which might give me some respite.
Good ol Jared
Jared Dillian (@dailydirtnap)
12/08/18, 10:27 AM
At 26, I thought my professor was wrong to dismiss technical analysis.
At 30, I was learning the basics of technical analysis.
At 34, I was dependent on technical analysis.
At 39, I found I could do without technical analysis.
At 44, I'm pretty sure my professor was right.
2826 - 2842
oil breaking down 64 next stop ?
lira tanking again , the range gone on the s&p too down we go
the turks are selling at 7 lol
The Turkish problem has the potential to start a domino effect. Quite a few European Banks are exposed.
Attachment 9851
They are not alone in the, tottering on the edge, state.
Absolutely ... I guess Germany can probably compensate for another $16 b ... (hopefully its not Deutsche Bank), but particularly with Spain I am not so sure.
turkey problems stem from debt binge over the years was always going to happen , trump just decided to put his foot on edorans head to get what he wants and the pressure piles on. cant see it as a big deal myself blow over when turkey economy crashes or turkey gives up to trump.
Sure - their problems are home made ... Trump is just the a**e he always is and kicking his opponents while they are on the ground. Nothing new - that's what bullies do.
You might well be right that the Turkey crisis doesn't end up as the detonator for the next financial crisis - or you might be wrong.
It is just ... if you know that the world economy has a lot of accumulated fuel just waiting for the spark to ignite it - would anybody with a gram of grey matter in the head run around and play with his lighter instead of trying to safely reduce the fuel supply?
2826 - 2842 still in play
better not say anything bad about turkey apparently they are investigating social media lol anyway we got 7 right
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/turk...-the-lira.html
Will property investors sell houses and buy stocks?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/pro...es-becomes-law
sea of red at the moment , commodities are getting smashed
I wish I was misreading it.
By designating all residential property as sensitive land, only people who are ordinarily resident in NZ (extracted definition below) can purchase without going through an approval process (which has now been made more difficult and therefore time consuming and expensive). Like most expats I am not ordinarily resident in NZ, so I get lumped in with the foreigners.
The press coverage mentions that people from Australia and Singapore are exempt because of trade agreements. If that is correct it creates the bizarre situation that non-NZ citizens from these countries can purchase residential property but NZ citizens living elsewhere cannot.
In this Act, a person is ordinarily resident in New Zealand,—
(a)for the purpose of an overseas investment in sensitive land where the relevant land is or includes residential land, for the purposes of a transaction that will result in an overseas investment in sensitive land where the relevant land is or includes residential land, and related matters, if the person—(i)holds a residence class visa granted under the Immigration Act 2009; and
(ii)has been residing in New Zealand for at least the immediately preceding 12 months; and
(iia)is tax resident in New Zealand; and
(iii)has been present in New Zealand for 183 days or more in total in the immediately preceding 12 months (counting presence in New Zealand for part of a day as a presence for a whole day):
Unfortunately too many foreigners just parking their money in NZ real estate. There's neighbourhoods in AKL you can drive around with dozens of empty houses, uncut lawns etc owned by foreigners who have never set foot in the country. Doesn't make for healthy vibrant safe communities which should be a core precept of public policy. Until recently around 20% AKL sales were to foreign speculators/investors, which is now having a flow on effect to rest of the country. NZ housing debt to overseas owned banks is staggering, in the absence of capital gains tax, something needed to be done.
Statistics NZ is the source, as quoted in a number of diff media including Interest.co.nz.
First 3 months of 2018, 1 in 5 houses sold in Waitemata Ward (Central Auckland, which includes Auckland CBD, Parnell, Grafton, Herne Bay, Ponsonby, Westmere, Grey Lynn, & Waiheke,) were to overseas buyers. It's lower in other areas e.g. 1 in 7 houses in Western North Shore ( Beach Haven, Glenfield, Northcote, Birkenhead) so concentrated in some areas, but still too high & this 3% overall nationally figure which gets quoted is misleading & implies there isn't a problem when clearly there is in some areas where there is already a housing shortage.
Appreciate for some there may be a degree of xenophobia , but that shouldn't cloud the fact that most of us welcome diversity & new immigrants, it's the rampant speculation on housing stock by overseas buyers which is shutting young families & esp Maori out of owning their own homes & the downstream consequences of that, which I worry about.
Great post and verification. Removing 3% of buyers nationally makes a huge difference.
I think your numbers are wrong. Here is the publication from statistics NZ for the relevant quarter:
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/just-...verseas-buyers
What? That means I cannot purchase a property in NZ? have lived here for 35 years plus and have permanent residency. Surely this is an error somewhere as there are bound to be plentiful like me who came to NZ years ago and have never changed to being a citizen?
I have not looked into the position of people who are NZ permanent residents but not NZ citizens but understand that they are exempted provided they meet a few criteria including being tax domiciled in NZ.
I'm getting conflicting feedback from various people so have probably reached the point where I should get clarification from a lawyer who practises in this area.
Sorry, why is it wrong? It states about half way down, 'the proportion of overseas home buyers varies across Auckland. For example it was 1.7% in Franklin and 19% in the inner city (Waitemeta) in the March quarter'.
If you're correcting me on ratio being 19 rather than 20% or not being across the whole of Auckland, fair comment, but 2 points.
1) whatever the exact figures, that kind of pressure at one extreme end of the market eventually has impacts across the whole market (maybe not Stewart Island ),
and 2) as quoted in Interest.co.nz ASB data for the same period says the actual number of homes sold to foreign buyers in the year to March 2018 is likely between 11% & 21% nationally, not the 3% reported by Stats NZ.
However, regardless of the precise figures, certainly in many (but not all) parts of central Auckland the evidence of increasing foreign buyers over last several years has been Compelling with a capital C for anyone selling or buying, going to auctions, looking at overseas websites promoting NZ property for speculative purposes, talking quietly to agents.
Anyway it looks like it's all going to turn to custard, correction on the cards esp if Simon keeps talking down the economy!
Well spotted & appreciate your robust highlighting of that, but you may have been missed subsequent post 4466 where I provided the source & more specific detail.
You'll see that is exactly what I said, with examples.
You're quite right of course, I should not have been so reckless in the first post. Apologies to all.
An anecdotal snapshot:
Changing face of Auckland: I live in a road with 10 properties in semi-rural Manukau. It is probably in an area statistically that does not have many foreign sales. When I moved in twenty years ago there were no ethnic Asian owners. All properties were owner occupied. Now four of the properties have ethnic Asian owners. Several of the Asian owners are out of the country for about half the year. Several properties are now rented out.
Seven of the properties now have penitentiary-like electric gates - none had them 20 years ago. There are three original owners remaining - a Dutch origin family and two NZ pakeha families. It’s still a great place to live and all the neighbours are good.
With permanent residency you will be an NZ resident just not an NZ citizen. Not even COL (I assuming here) would be stupid enough to change that. I understand NZ permanent residents get almost everything NZ citizens get other than to be an MP and presumably work visa-free in Oz.
This bull market is about to become historic and may have even more room to run
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/this...till-has-.html
In my view there could be demand for new stocks and overlooked stocks. Smart money was flowing into those types of stocks over the last month.More surprisingly gold is no longer a safe haven. It also dropped along with base metals. The precious metals normally go up in times of investor panic, but not this week.Investors pulled the most money from technology stocks since February's sell-off. Financials stocks also suffered big outflows.
I think the Americans have borrowed from their future to inject into the present in the form of the corporate tax cut. The conversation should be more on the huge rise in debt in this short term period and how growth will not compensate for it unless they can grow GDP at 5-6%. It really puts the whole thing on a more precarious position going forward now, because a slow down would be exponentially worse for the US.
I take all the articles with a grain of salt from any financial publications that stand to make a profit. Keep in mind that they make their money too in times of chaos. Ratings are generally higher during bear markets and of course one off events.
There always will be a future ... it just may look bleak and we may or may not be part of it ;);
But yes, it is getting more and more difficult to think about credible narratives with happy ending of how humanity can get rid of the debt mountains many countries and individuals are piling up. Obviously - idiots like Trump and Erdogan are making it worse trying to borrow themselves out of the indebtedness, but haven't yet seen a working alternative concept other than old fashioned "work hard and save" - and this is clearly not popular in populist times and might be for many countries already too late anyway.
wow briefly touched all time high on the 500 and the other big news of the day jp morgan offering free stock trades on its app
Here’s a cool chart with a bog animation
https://twitter.com/dollarsanddata/s...51550209650688
reading and listening to media saying this is the longest bull market in history ? i dont think we are there yet as the s&p 500 hasnt closed above its late jan high
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIELN8C-7bQ
worth a watch exact same is happening here in NZ and around the world
Dow breaks through 26k, S&P at 2894! Big Bulls bulling.
1 trillion in buy backs , earnings up 20% , pe ratio falling all the time , trade deals happening .... still the most hated bull market in history
althought i see the 500 is at the top of the channel again, see what happens
2900 S&P has broken through, Dow and Nasdaq up again... boom times.
us analysts targets are still 3000 - 3200 for the s&p500 this end of year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia
60% interest rates in argentina .... tempting
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia
buffett still buying
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/30/warr...-recently.html
Don't be tempted. I've just been to a bank over here (Argentina)and they've all run out of USD. They were advertising 1 months fixed deposit with 35% interest pa. Supermarkets closing down for a few days as they don' t know what to sell their goods for in order to have enough cash to restock at unknown prices. Many over here have mortgages in USD or tied to USD and inflation. One of my colleagues just told me his mortgage has gone up 25% in the last 2 days. Terrible situation and people are in great panic.