Time will tell ;)
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Time will tell ;)
Achieve $180m ….that’s 52 cents a share ….PE of say 13 and one gets about 7 bucks
Even their own forecast of $160m at Same PE as BGR makes 344 look VERY VERY CHEAP
Yeap, no argument from me which is why this is my #1 investment position. They are ridiculously cheap. I'm comfortable with your $180m which as you say is
52 cps so the shares are on a FY21 PE of just 6.6 which is as you say, quite frankly completely out of whack compared to other retailers. It doesn't make any sense to me.
Those figures I quoted earlier which are average analyst numbers are $140m this year and $120m for FY22 and FY23 are the before tax figures. Company itself is guiding "adjusted NPAT for the full year is expected to exceed $160 million" with the major item of adjustment of course being the repayment of the wage subsidy.
Store within a store efficiencies and staff and management efficiencies will reap dividends in FY22 and beyond and their weighted average lease term was 4 years as of the half year result so there's plenty of scope for store rationalisation in the future as the company becomes more focused on omnichannel sales.
The prognosis you outlined at post #4394 looks entirely plausible to me in terms of what's going to play out in the short term. Next year we should get NZX50 inclusion and all the time we're being paid very handsomely with high dividends. I think the risks and rewards looked pretty heavily skewed towards the latter.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...678/343023.pdf
Dividend policy is to pay out at least 70% of adjusted profit, (see page 6) so if they do $180m that's 52 cents per share so they will pay out at least 52 x 0.7 = 36.4 cps in dividends for FY21.
They've already paid a special of 5 cps + an interim of 13 cps so this suggests a final divvy for FY21 of at least 18.4 cps fully imputed. WOW !
If they can repeat $180m after tax for FY22 that's at least 2 x 18.2 cent dividends during the year = 36.4 cents fully imputed = (36.4 / 0.72) = 50.56 cps gross dividends. On $3.44 that's a Prospective gross yield for FY22 of 50.56 / 344 = 14.7%.
Hey Winner, remember in August 2016 how we bought HLG on a ridiculously low PE at a prospective yield of 15% gross at $2.75 ?...worked out "pretty good" for us eh ;) (Lots of people thought we were mad back then and retail and especially the rag trade was in trouble)....but we knew better and proved the sceptics wrong.
History never repeats...surely we won't nearly triple our money in a few short years, or maybe, just maybe, history does repeat ;)
Final thought for the day, Oh my goodness I'd nearly forgotten about how strong their balance sheet is with $183.6m cash on hand and no debt, (page 4), that's 53 cps in cash at the half year with zero debt. WOW !! I'd better buy some more...these are so cheap its completely nuts !!
"remember in August 2016 how we bought HLG "
Yes ....
More disposable income due to no overseas holidays and people feeling flush due to property prices get spent at places like the Warehouse, Noel Leeming and Torpedo. This will continue for the foreseeable future...who knows how long. Benefits increased, increased efficiencies and market share can only mean good news for this stock.
I think that they're saving the cash to spend on a takeover or acquisition which indeed will create more focus on the stock and possibly a re-rating. Thanks for the yield calcs, I was very surprised at the size of the last dividend which of course was only 13cents and this next one could be 50 percent more. Come in WHS!
I couldn't help noticing a few things about the HY2021 Warehouse balance sheet.
1/ Inventory was down $83.6m or more than 14% on pcp. This is explained as good sales over Christmas. But if that level of sales is to continue this year, the WHS will have to spend $83.6m to bring their inventory back to previous levels.
2/ The difference between 'trade and other receivables' and 'trade and other payables is a whopping: $86.1m-$501.6m = $415.5m. I guess not paying your bills is one way to increase the cash in your bank account?
3/ I notice the 'lease liabilities' exceed the 'right of lease assets' by $910.1m - $751.4m = $158.7m
So adjusting for those 'hidden debts' and subtracting the cash on hand gives a net debt position of:
( $83.6m + $415.5m + $158.7m ) - $183.6m = $473.3m
That net level of operational debt is of the order of 3 times net profit. Nothing to be concerned about, but it would be misleading to say the company was 'debt free'. I would class WHS as having a medium level of indebtedness, based on that HY2021 balance sheet.
SNOOPY
From Item 9.
-----------------------------------------
Local trade creditors and accruals 307,257
Overseas trade creditors 146,591
would like to know the break down of these 2 items geographically to see how much comes from which suppliers. Will the continuing supply problems put more pressure on their current liabilities.
well laid out financials but a fuller PL would be good to see.
Was the fixed rate bond of 5% redeemed.
From last year Inventory down YTD, payables up YTD, cash at bank up YTD.
What its rate of stock turn nothing to calc this, pitty.
TOTALCURASSETS - TOTALCURLIAB = SOLVENT.
Hidden debt?
They will need to turn the stock over but there are no current hidden liabilities on the balance sheet.
Dont see a cash reserve for special dividends such as a sale of an assets.
large amount of the cash on hand is pretty much committed to back stopping inventory by the looks.
Looks like it can maintain its dividend.
Looking at Stock Turn with averaging Opening & Closing Stocks -
First of all Interim First Half - (All in $ m)
2021 H1 to 31 Jan 2021:
Opening Inventory $ 393.61
Closing $ 497.1
Ave Inventory $ 445.355 m
Interim Retail COGS $ 1152.9 m
Stock Turn - 6 m = 2.5887
-
2020 H1 to 26 Jan 2020:
Opening Inventory $ 517.758
Closing $ 581.3
Ave Inventory $ 549.529 m
Interim Retail COGS $ 1117.3 m
Stock Turn - 6 m = 2.0332
-
2019 H1 to 27 Jan 2019:
Opening Inventory $ 523.84
Closing $ 542.771
Ave Inventory $ 533.3055 m
Interim Retail COGS $ 1107.308 m
Stock Turn - 6 m = 2.0763
-
Secondly Full Year - (All in $ m)
2020 FY to 2 Aug 2020:
Opening Inventory $ 517.758
Closing $ 393.61
Ave Inventory $ 455.684 m
FY Retail COGS $ 2137.95 m
Stock Turn - FY = 4.6917
-
2019 FY to 28 Jul 2019:
Opening Inventory $ 523.840
Closing $ 517.758
Ave Inventory $ 520.799 m
FY Retail COGS $ 2042.722 m
Stock Turn - FY = 3.92228
-
2018 FY to 29 Jul 2018:
Opening Inventory $ 487.274
Closing $ 523.840
Ave Inventory $ 505.557 m
FY Retail COGS $ 2003.396 m
Stock Turn - FY = 3.9627
All base figures have come from published Company Interim & FY Accounts
Perhaps Snoops can check my back of the envelope calculations etc, above
Not sure if any inventory impairment expensed elsewhere, but these figures
use the basic figures in P&L & Balance Sheet that the company has released.
The HY to 31 Jan 2021 obviously reflects quite a bounce - presumably the post Covid
Lockdowns Retail trading bubble coming through into Inventory movements out the door ;)
2020 H2 looks like it must have been pretty good to kick Stock Turn upwards for FY as well,
for duration of Covid lockdowns on reduced Inventory levels. Or maybe I'm missing
something here ? ;)
Bonds $125 M
Quote:
Was the fixed rate bond of 5% redeemed.
Yes - Repaid in H2 2020 Year - shows in 2 Aug 2020 12 months Cashflow Statement as going out
It's interesting that even after repaying Wage Subsidies ($67.5 m) in Jan 21 H1 - WHS still managed
to stack up another roughly $50 m in an improved Net Current Assets/Current Liabilities position -
up from roughly $20 m in the two published comparatives.
I guess part of that increase is attributable to no dividends being paid in 2021 Jan H1, which normally
would have appeared going out & been reported in the period.
5.0 cps Special Div paid Mar 2021 ($17 m) made a dent in the cash pile post 2021 H1 balance date
followed by Apr 2021 Interim 13.0 cps (say $44 m) - cash pile increase gone, plus some more ;)
2021 H1 Balance Sheet shows a pretty fluid balance sheet, no borrowings
Very similar to HLG, a fairly clean balance sheet - it comes down to future good periods of
trading, with hopefully no more local lockdowns, supply disruptions etc.
if WHS keep the trading fine tuned, there could be some impressive results going forward, IMO
Inventories down roughly $90 m on the interim comparative suggests WHS is being quite careful
- maybe due to the current Covid affected times elsewhere globally. Cant knock that stance.
Wonder how these guys are going with lead times on imported goods due in ?
The coverage they must need for store acreage must be very large, but obviously
they are able to move to control things fairly well, if the figures coming through are any indication.
GST at end of 2021 H1 appears down too - depending on trading or input patterns maybe it got paid earlier
or offset, if as I imagine they're probably monthly GST filers .. it may all be in timing however or for any number of
reasons, who knows..
Quote:
3/ I notice the 'lease liabilities' exceed the 'right of lease assets' by $910.1m - $751.4m = $158.7m
Could it be that these assets etc have been expensed faster than the pay down rate on the liabilities ?
Rather than a Liability - could we consider this to be an early overstatement of expenses (ie the show has theoretically
done better but for the Beancounter's applied magic policies) giving rise to increased Ca$h in the bank ? ;)
The Liability due or programming of pay down of them wont likely change, but the matching of the expensing has possibly been
advanced forward for whatever reasons ? ;)
Perhaps the new Accounting Policies have shortchanged Stakeholders in earlier periods ? ;)
I'll have a really good look through the FY21 accounts in due course. In the meantime I am focused on the extraordinary metrics this company is trading on with a PE of just 6.6 and a possible FY22 yield of nearly 15% gross.
As noted yesterday there is the possibility of an outsized final dividend this year, (which isn't that far away from being payable) as net adjusted profit after tax at the half year point was $111m (32 cps) and they only paid dividends of 18 cps. A minimum payout ratio of 70% would have suggested interim dividends of 0.7 x 32 = 22.4 cps so there's 22.4 - 18 = 4.4 cps conservatism (below the stated minimum 70% payout line) inbuilt from the first half trading and dividend payments related to that.
WHS metrics are miles out of whack, (astonishingly so), with any other retailer in N.Z. and I am comfortable with the direction they're travelling and the efficiencies they are extracting from the business. It looks like the best value opportunity on the NZX at present, frankly, by a country mile.
I foresee retail as being a LOT stronger for a LOT longer than the analysts are projecting and I am happy to put my money where my mouth is with large stakes in this, HLG and TRA.
Disc: I will be adding to this over the next few weeks and its already my #1 listed investment position.
beagle and winner whipping WHS punters into a frenzy
"All base figures have come from published Company Interim & FY Accounts"
was looking for a break down geographically to show possible exposure to global Baltic Dry.
You can take the basics from the PL and Balance sheet but that doesnt give the break across the whole group as there are 3 separate business.
If an investor is going to go over weight as MR B is suggesting its a bit more complicated than just buy a single retailer like HLG or MHJ.
Those 2 just sell one retail sector.
This is a Group selling many items across a broad range of sectors although perhaps its small enough to just go with these very basic figures.
A break down of sectors would be good but it doubtful they will go into the depth of data required for an over weight position as being suggested.
Would want to see a much deeper presentation of information.
Something like the presentation for SKL which shows its geographic depth of market and product.
The local bike shops for example are starting to complain of real supply issues.
Dont consider the basic opening / closing stock to be anywhere near good enough to make a over weight decision on.
Business like EBO for example in there reporting provides in depth product reporting allowing an investor a deep insight into the business model and if the investor is comfortable they can go over weight if that suites there exposure.
Big lack of depth in this groups reporting.
2019 FY to 28 Jul 2019:
Opening Inventory $ 523.840
Closing $ 517.758
Ave Inventory $ 520.799 m
FY Retail COGS $ 2042.722 m
Stock Turn - FY = 3.92228
---------------------------------------
Secondly Full Year - (All in $ m)
2020 FY to 2 Aug 2020:
Opening Inventory $ 517.758
Closing $ 393.61
Ave Inventory $ 455.684 m
FY Retail COGS $ 2137.95 m
Stock Turn - FY = 4.6917
2021 H1 to 31 Jan 2021:
Opening Inventory $ 393.61
Closing $ 497.1
Ave Inventory $ 445.355 m
Interim Retail COGS $ 1152.9 m
Stock Turn - 6 m = 2.5887
---------------------------------------------------------
Thanks for crunching those numbers nztx
Very encouraging trend there with annualised stock turn for FY21 likely to be around 5 which is very impressive for this sector.
This is also how I see it and is based on personal buying experience over the last 12 months and behaviors I am seeing in multiple friend groups. The wallets are coming out. No point in saving for a holiday to Europe or North America..
Retail is the place to be invested right now. WHS, MHJ, HLG, TRA for the win.
And if you get it wrong you won't be losing money because the multiples are already so low.
The market is offering up some punts here (WHS and MHJ especially) with great upside but little to no downside. Worst case scenario is a great dividend with no capital gain.
average of 4 is good enough to cover the current assets / current liabilities for sure.
want to see in depth reporting on group products to go over weight.
else
spread it over average of
"WHS, MHJ, HLG, TRA " as suggested by "RAWZ"
although TRA is questionable but you have drive something in a country with no fast regional trains and a large long demographic.
and dont forget EBO for retail as you should all have that in your portfolio as well.
EBO's financial reporting of product sector break down is excellent.
Consider this groups needs to up the game on its retail stock reporting in the financials.
Notice they used the term "Finished Goods" but this group doesnt "Finish Goods".
For that you budding accountants out there can get your heavy duty tomes out for in deep Cost Accounting.
Waltzingman …….WHS sector/group/segment pretty robust
Segment sales and profitability as well as capital employed all shown in reports etc.
EBOS on a FY 21 forecast PE of 25.
What sort of impact will shipping freight rises have?I'm hearing 500% rises in some cases.
GP margins have been increasing nicely. Little or no discounting and some price rises so shipping cost increases are being passed on to customers.
Did some shopping yesterday as Mrs B was feeling a bit poorly. Surprised how almost everything has gone up.
Yep, that was good and we got another go it at last year as well.:)
Put paid to those who said high yields are there for a reason ….ie very risky ….like too good to be true so dont buy etc etc
Back to WHS - same opportunity right now eh.
And I’d hazard a guess your average is well under 3 bucks so yield on that must be even more awesome than the numbers you’ve been quoting. No harm in averaging up from this point in time …yield so good
Hello good people. Here's an easy question for you clever people. I have looked this up on the net but am confused. WHS dividends are 100% franked. Is this the same as imputation? Simply, has the tax been paid?
Mr B "EBOS on a FY 21 forecast PE of 25."
Yes correct as always!
assuming most investors have this stock already at lower price entry point from last year.
Financial break downs in there reports is at a pretty high standard.
Winner(n) , its 2021 and publishing data in reports PDF is almost 1990's technology.
No but wait, its just Z80 stuff.....its a JOKE! Like this dusted old forum at the back of second hand book shop...
Lovely but quaint...
Now accurate DSI is good.
Hard to hide 'things' in the Cash Flow Statement
Chart is WHS's Free Cash Flow (12 month figures) over the last few years
Bear in mind -
1) Over this time capex has averaged about $50m annually
2) all the abnormal cash costs (redundancies, restructuring, consultants etc etc) are inlcuded
3) H220 and H121 adjusted for Covod subsidy just for timing pruposes (no overall $ impact)
Pretty good eh -- now all the crap appears to be out of the system day to day performance is generating growing cash flows
Got to do something with that cash
"Got to do something with that cash"
are you assuming they are going to increase the DIV.
some way to go before the NOV end of year.
There is time to go through the figures thoroughly before allocating the big dollars or converted currency.
No question the ability of MR B to quickly understand the direction of a balance sheet and the power it brings to a business.
DSI is good in retail industries also.
Hi nztx
IMO it is better to remove the "Goods in transit from overseas" value when calculating stock turn or inventory days. Why? That value represents a deposit paid to an overseas supplier to secure shipment. Whilst the cash has left WHS, the stock has not yet arrived - it is either on the water or still being manufactured. Through these troubled times, overseas suppliers are demanding higher deposits and when combined with longer shipping lead times, this is resulting in higher values for "Goods in transit" on the Balance Sheet. If you remove these values then you will get a more accurate stock turn. My gut feel is you will see a better improvement than previously calculated.
Ferg
Well said Ferg. You got a few of these shares ?
"inventory days."
DSI.
the public should not be left to calculate any of these stats in this day and age. There is no excuse for it.
Thanks Beagle - I have been seeing the same impact of increased value of Goods in Transit with my clients. Yes I have been accumulating WHS quietly on the dips since April. Given WHS does not give preferential access to brokers, it is not widely supported in the "professional" investment community. So I see no reason to rush on accumulating, other than getting my desired position sorted before the upcoming full year result. I'm currently doing my own DD to see how much more I should tip in. The last profit guidance was a beauty that does not appear to be priced in, unless it is being viewed as a one off....time will tell I suppose!
Cheers, Ferg.
They had one on 4 May 2021, first one since 2017. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...579/345273.pdf
Ferg, Its apparent from FY22 and FY23 forecasts that analysts do see this years result as a one off. I don't share their view.
Interesting presentation. Lots of green arrows and rising graphs in there which confirm historical performance. Thanks for that. More interesting to me is the noises they are making regarding the future - such as:
- processes and procedures,
- cutting out the local middlemen and sourcing more directly from overseas,
- not just acknowledging the headwinds with leases and staff but actually doing something about it with SWAS etc,
- the multi-year systems plans,
- the online intentions,
- Torpedo 7 performance (Anecdotally I was really impressed with the local Torpedo 7 - I had not realised it was part of WHS when I went some months ago. I managed to procure some items I could not get elsewhere. The store felt like Kathmandu meets Rebel Sport.)
- etc etc etc.
Lots of meaty things in there and I suppose the local lockdown gave them the oomph to realise the first fruits of their labours. It appears there are more savings and efficiencies to come as new initiatives are embedded, so I shall indeed watch this space with baited breath.
In short, I agree with your assessment Beagle.
Good point Ferg - but for in transit to be starring in closing inventory then the debit
for prepaid costs must be included in COGS figures as well
How does this change the view of things ?
Reduce COGS as well as adjust the Opening & Closing inventories along the way ?
or do the two contra off ?
Interesting - with the analyst's views on WHS - does this suggest they see a one off post covid trading spike
and their views are eliminating this one-off out (or depending on what happens - maybe it could recur) ?
If it did, with presumably lockdowns - then we may see it normal occurence with lumpy ups & downs in corporate
performance in places..
WHS seems to have done a pretty good job of navigating troubled Covid times with fine tuning - how much of this compensates
for removing the possible trading spike out of the equation ?
They seem to have a lot of domestic input supplies into Retail for sale COGS - the import payables at HY Jan 2021 didn't seem too high
or overly increased - perhaps they balanced this or just a matter of timing of things - who knows ..
On a wider perspective - what are the analyst's views on other Retail stocks - BGR & HLG or dare I suggest KMD - where
post covid good trading times have been apparently seen as well ?
Okay, in NZ & Oz economies there have been huge artificially created waves of liquidity & money creation thrown into
the system by Govt's - with no real apparent moves to suck back out large surplus awash in the system so far to date ..
I agree - despite the Analysts views, this is looking a well tuned turn around
Okay, it's been a while coming & just maybe Covid provided a final shake up to see it through .. ;)
The results through Covid times & now a reasonably sound position coming out this end of the tunnel looking forward,
it's hard not to like what is showing on the radar now .. ;)
Big feed to be had here for those that know what to do, hint its not this so don't muck about with this https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...t=0&ajaxserp=0
It's this https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...=0&vt=0&sim=11
Disc: Bought another 10,000 today. Just warming up...
Oh dear ... I assume critical observations are currently unwanted, aren't they?
Anyway - my trustworthy Giro cylce helmet starts to disintegrate after 26 years of use, so I decided to hunt this afternoon for a new one.
Went first to Torpedo 7 ... and found out that even the basic model (something like $110) didn't offer a visor. Didn't like the colours on offer either. Pretty empty shop as well (I was the only customer) - why are we shareholders paying for empty premises offering goods nobody wants?
Happened to be afterwards in the warehouse and found that a very similar helmet like the $110 helmet in Torpedo 7 is $ 35 at the warehouse (sure, different brand, but same interior, same safety standard and same boring colours) ... same - without visor. Decided to look somewhere else. On my way back to the exit I noticed that most of the articles in the electronic department (like cellphones ...) are on "sold out". Not a lot of customers in this shop either.
Just wondering whether they make a lot of money with putting empty shelves on offer?
Was wondering this morning whether I should buy some more WHS shares (I do have a medium sized holding), but decided after this experience that I don't feel good enough abut WHS to buy more shares ... felt too much like shopping in some postwar socialist country where you buy what's available instead of what you want. Wouldn't buy Intershop shares either.
Anyway - more shares available for beagle, this is good :):
The journal entry for inventory in transit is:Debit Inventory in Transit. Credit Overseas Accounts Payable (notice the high overseas payables balance, which is a strategic shift in procurement policies)
Some of those creditors may have been paid resulting in an additional:Debit Overseas Accounts Payable. Credit Cash
None of this impacts COGS. To calculate inventory days and/or stock turn reduce the opening and closing balances by the value of inventory in transit, but do not change your COGS numbers.
Not at all BP - criticisms are welcome, especially if we are making incorrect assessments or judgements etc. I'd rather be wrong and cashed in than wrong, blissfully ignorant and facing a capital loss...!
You raise a good point about empty shelves. As supply chains get stretched resulting in delayed deliveries, those with stock on the shelf will win. I am seeing this first hand with my clients. Despite our best efforts, actually getting delivery of stock is the issue no matter the amount of deposit paid! In addition, having to wait weeks for delivery ex factory to a port in China is adding more time delays to the currently abysmal situation of being bumped off ships and a reduced shipping schedule. Anecdotally others have also seen stock shortages with Noel Leeming. Given the steel issues one of my clients faces, I wonder if it will also hit the likes of STU. In conclusion, we are not through he worst of COVID due to disruptions to international supply chains so your personal observation will not be an isolated event.
Thanks Ferg - so you're suggesting imported stuff only hits COGS on arrival / clearance
and the bookkeeper then clears the cost of the arrived stuff into P&L Purchases accounts in COGS ?
It crossed my mind that it may have been charged direct on incurring a cost to Purchases sub ledgers in COGS
then balance date adjustments made separating 'still in progress' as a component of their closing inventories..
Hence why I included in previous back of the envelope inventory figures
Did you leave them with a back order - BP by chance ? ;)
These sort of items may be as scarce as hens teeth here with the way global shipping is starting to look in places
thus justifying being asked an arm & a leg for privilege of getting your mits on the more curious of items not on the shelves .. ;)
That is good. I am not looking a gift fat rabbit in the mouth and just playing with it.
You should get out more mate :p Welcome to the new reality of living with Covid.
Today's successful purchase is getting close to what you want in a product, paying full retail and not waiting an inordinate amount of time for it. That's what the landscape is now...Its just the way things are right across the board with all sorts of things.
" helmet in Torpedo 7 is $ 35 at the warehouse (sure, different brand, but same interior, same safety standard and same boring colours)"
many brands of sun glasses come out of the same factory in SWIT or AUT. Each vendor has an office in the building and the production line is set up to rotate between designs....
same factory different moulds and different ratios of molecular properties in the materials used to make the frames and glasses.
More people go to Warehouse than a T7 and the cost accounting means the floor space can be charge out at different rates, also the number of units held might mean one brand is from a farther away manufacture and shipping point.
Though I endorse buying WHS to some extent even if I dont like the management and their business model ....But I dont agree there is a sellers market in retail here in NZ especially for smaller items ...still can get discount on many items including Dyson products ...
Once used to be a saying in retail 'when petrol reaches $2.30 a litre start thinking about a bit of a sales slowdown'
Stuff story says petrol hit $2.36
Just as well old sayings are just that these days - these days are different
Kingfish has 20% of its funds Mainfreight ..far too much
Their portfolio really does need refreshing and take on board some stocks that will get them back to their former glory
I’ve written to them suggesting they get a decent chunk of WHS …get in first before other funds catch on
Can't help noticing that IFT, MFT, and FPH make up 50% of their portfolio. All good companies but trading on super high PE multiples and one has to ask if that's proper diversification. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...154/350920.pdf
I see they've finally cottoned on that RYM are overpriced and disappointed Gordy has left. Only took them 7 years longer than you and I that called RYM overpriced in 2014, (and its dramatically underperformed the sector and market since). In my opinion the magic ended when Simon Challis left and Gordy as his understudy has been a poor shadow of the true legend that made RYM really shine in days gone by. I think its clear they need an infusion of new idea's. You and I would make a fearsome team running the show at Kingfish, I think we've missed our calling :)
We will see.
I found a dealer in Manukau who sells bike helmets over the internet. Good brand, the right colour and size and with visor. Price (incl. postage) slightly below the very dull (and visor-less) Torpedo 7 option. I ordered one. A lost sale for Torpedo 7.
Maybe Torpedo 7 / warehouse just having a logistical problem, which could be made worse by an attitude problem (I noticed that already last year when trying to get some other stuff from one of their subsidiaries (at that stage it was Warehouse Stationary).
This could quickly turn into a problem for their shareholders, couldn't it? Markets change fast and can be unforgiving when they see substandard performance.
And sure - just one story from one customer (and shareholder) - still, they clearly don't always get their act together ...
We'll get a sales / trading update for the fourth quarter about mid August and a guidance upgrade with it...remember who called it first and who's leading this hunt ;)
It is duly noted.
However instead of running the numbers of the WHS balance sheet through our Smart Chart summary ratio rules software we are stuck processing Heats and semi's from the women and mens single sculling events from tokyo.
It appears some competitors (not the germans) may be sculling there boats right over left at the catch when the german made boat is made left over right..
Something you cant buy at WHS or T7 and the price in euros for sports gear is going through the roof. New boats now in the high 20 grand and climbing. If you can actually ship gear to NZ and the container charges going up according to the local agents from europe.
Guidance said ”As a result of the strength of trading through to the end of Q3, and the expectation that Q4 FY21 Group sales will be similar to Q3 FY21
If ‘similar’ that would mean Q4 sales down 14% on last year …..going backwards and reducing full year growth to a miserly 7%
I think Nick is kidding us with that guidance ….making sure he doesn’t disappoint us
T7 customer service is hopeless.....I've had repeated issues and now avoid them where I can.
Last straw that broke the camels back.....pedal just straight fell off my daughters new bike on her first ride, and she fell off!! Guys in the shop were apologetic but just simply shouldn't happen. Bought from a reputed company etc etc.
There was a few issues with the actual order. But then about 6 weeks after we picked it up, they rang me up and asked if I was going to pick up the bike, which had been bought click and collect. Could have got a 2nd bike for free...
Disc: A (small) shareholder, who hates shopping there and struggles for reasons to buy more :scared:
Just looked up the Botany Downs Warehouse on Google Maps and it says 'Not too busy' so that is also 'Not so good' right?
Attachment 12782
Disc: Last went in this one in 2006, just interested to know if it was still there.
anecschmote.
LOL at people here trying to judge a retail store popularity based on observations on a Monday and Tuesday morning.
The majority of retail sales happen Friday, Saturday, Sunday - with Saturday by far the busiest.
Do you guys also judge nightclubs for being empty at 10am? or bakeries for being closed at 6pm?
Good point. The warehouse where I shop is generaly a lot more active these days than it was 18 months ago and that is why I am looking to buy more shares on the dips. Time to be cautious with WHS is when Cindy opens up international travel, and that's a ways off I reckon.
Even when international travel opens up, its going to be a lot different for kiwis travelling overseas with many popular overseas destinations having covid endemic through society, and as we are seeing while vaccination prevents death & serious illness, it doesn't 100% prevent catching covid.
This will put a lot of people off travelling to USA/UK/Europe/Fiji etc where they will still have covid in the community for years to come, especially if NZ keeps some sort of quarantine or self isolation requirement on return for anyone who catches covid. It might be people might need a pre-departure covid test before returning to NZ, which might mean an unexpected 14 day extension to your holiday if you test positive.
In summary - the spending on overseas holidays is going to remain very subdued for several more years.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...487/332946.pdf
Sounds a bit "cheesy" but for me I have come to realise this sums up WHS quite well.
The reality (that I often forget) is that most families don't have much left over after paying the rent / mortgage, food and bills and you can go into the WHS and get stuff you really need, dirt cheap. Most stuff there is MUCH cheaper than Briscoes.
Interesting Eureka moment for me. I remember our trip down to New Plymouth to Mrs B's mother's funeral earlier this year very well, like it was yesterday. Such an incredibly sad three days, (Mrs B and her mother had been estranged for more than 25 years and now there's no way to ever reconcile) and it rained all the way down, almost all the time there and most of the way back. Mrs B's back was in very bad shape after the long car journey down there...desperately needed a hottie to help ease the pain. It was late at night when we got down there, dark, cold and pouring with rain. Where on earth would we get a hot water bottle at 8.00 p.m. at night on a Sunday ? No idea...maybe some late night Chemist that would charge us like a wounded bull for this basic necessity ? We drove around and the WHS with their newish looking store on a main road was like a beacon on a hill drawing us in. Open till 9.00 p.m. on a Sunday and they had a desperately needed hot water bottle for only $7. What a relief.
I can't help wondering how many other families lives are made better because they can get necessities at a moments notice at dirt cheap prices ?
That watershed moment was the beginning of my journey to seriously investing in WHS shares. The metrics I have talked about recently really speak for themselves and are miles more compelling and out of whack with other listed retailers who all have similar stock procurement and logistical challenges.
Not so sure about that. Years ago when we started travelling we had to have a certificate proving vaccination against smallpox, typhoid and other diseases much worse than covid. Didn't stop us going. I suspect that when released Kiwis will fly overseas in their droves and the Warehouse and other retailers may struggle.
That's how I see it too. Its just not worth the risk. I've given up for the foreseeable future on my dream trip to Switzerland travelling business class and staying in the finest accommodation for several weeks. Find something here to spend the money on instead. I like bargains and the biggest one is WHS shares.
"The warehouse where everyone gets a bargain", especially those buying their shares at present ;)
The emerging consensus around the long term impact of covid on recovered people is going to have a bigger impact in future. while immediate concerns are around survival rates, there is already studies indicating the life long impact is worse than heart disease or diabetes, and a drop in mental capacity of 9 IQ points on average. It won't be long before this becomes a significant public concern.
Stockturns discussion and BP's T7 experience interesting
Torpedo7 stock turns pretty shocking
Maybe time to get rid of them
Checked on the history in more normal times. Trading updates on 25 July and 23 August 2019.
This year mid August ?
Disc: Steadily accumulating more.
Why would they sell them when they are integrating the operations into the groups merged operating system (Logistics, warehousing, inventory management, online sales etc - the more brands WHS has using the same integrated system, the more efficient it becomes for the entire group), and when sales for T7 have been performing like this:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:h...6-e2911cd8e484https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:h...9-24e297cef996Attachment 12790
I was under the impression from the comms I received while working at Noels that T7 was still in its expansion/growth phase, increasing its NZ footprint, before churning out the sales. Its been an outstanding performer during covid due to everyone wanting leisure activity items, as it was I ordered an E-bike and was told it would be 4-5months due to stock issues. (They actually had to employ a security team to protect stock enroute to NZ as another countries ports i.e. Australia were taking stock designated for NZ and then sussing it out with the supplier.)
Something needs to be done about the supermarkets in this country they a disgrace 400 dollars today for weekly shop it must be up over 25% in the last year, they using covid as excuse to fleece us
Agreed and the draft report of the Commerce Commission's findings agrees too. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...?ocid=msedgntp
Interesting times with WHS. I would think they are well positioned with their national store footprint that's ripe for change and rationaliztion.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...FJXPNAHSUGDYE/
I think the key here is that the duopoly's profits are persistently high. If WHS can consistently make ~ $200m per year for many many years other competitors will be attracted to that sector.
Comm Comm's take is that the incumbents ostensibly act to willfully obstruct other competitors and engage in other anticompetitive activities. Basically they're acting in a contrived manner to bleed Kiwi's dry.
They mention its hard to get site's for suitable sized stores for other competitors. I know one company that's well positioned in that regard ;)
Yes I thought that was a very interesting point as well - WHS group has a lot of existing prime spots for the creation of a nationwide supermarket chain.
It has multiple options as well, and could do whatever works depending on the site:
1) adapting existing stores (probably works best for mall locations where building development is out of WHS control.
2) building on car park space (and preserving parking either above or below the new store)
3) redevelop existing single level store site with a new two level structure.
4) instead of ending lease on the warehouse stationary stores upon integration into a red shed, alternatives are keeping the stationary site for smaller footprint grocery, or cancelling the red shed/stationary integration and instead going with grocery integration at the red shed.
5) new developments in areas of population growth see even more economies of scale for WHS group - could now have the whole portfolio in new big box developemnts: Red shed/stationary/grocery/NL/T7
6) in some areas a pure online grocery operation may be an option, especially in future as more people opt for online grocery delivery, WHS can integrate this into existing logistics network with some tweaks.
7) and of course the brute force approach: WHS can just build new grocery stores in existing key population centers where land is available. Maybe some areas where a smaller WHS was being considered for closure anyway.
Not sure why WHS don't just turn a portion of their stores into a costco/gilmores type operation.
Buy 5kg of milo cheap
Buy 50kg washing powder cheap
Buy 2kg corn flakes cheap.
Don't worry about perishables or short life goods. Who wants to buy their milk and broccoli from the WHS? Not me but I would buy 5kg of baked beans in a tin.
Do they? Never seen one in Auckland? All I see are bins full of single bag chips or chocolate. Then selves of single item shampoo, razors, soap etc. Scrap that. Can get all that from PaknSave cheaper anyway.
Got to go bulk bargain approach if they want to take on the super markets.
Go to your local gilmores store and you can by 2.5kg bag of corn chips. 5kg bag of cereal. This is different from the supermarkets. WHS should do this model.