Think peat’s charts are upside down
Austen the new Whangarei site is an old Placemakers premises...no container offices here. As you will see there is an old warehouse at the rear of the site (which we have refurbished) with a large outside display car park on the road frontage. This will be a great move from a back block industrial location to a high profile inner city corner site which will help improve the number of end customers we can attract into the business. The site is 8000m2 which increases the footprint we have to retail cars from by approximately 25%. We will be open from Monday.
Attachment 10359
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Wa...!4d174.3165086
Turners talk about “the intrinsic value of the business” with the share trading below this intrinsic value.
An overused term this intrinsic value ..generally used by punters who think the share they are interested in is undervalued. Gives them a sense of well bearing.
One guy who loved using the term was Ron Brierley ....again and again he reminded us that Brierley and then Guinness Peat was so cheap because the share price was below intrinsic value.
Intrinsic value sounds posh. There’s now way to calculate intrinsic value - I reckon the intrinsic value of Turners is at least $3.50 ..but that’s just my guess/estimate/calculation and many would say I’m just as delusional as Baker.
Nice charts Peat
The column on the npat chart for FY19;is likely be about the same as FY18 (hoping)
So npat not much more than FY15 ....in a period when revenues have more than tripled
Something wrong - all this clipping the ticket and not much more profit
Maybe charts not as good looking as you obviously intend to demonstrate
Be a small win/relief for all of us if this is bottom, but with used car sales slowing since Nov as Trade Me noted, im not convinced.
I wonder what the Board thinks about the share price being $2.15
They seemed rather distressed when it was $3
All joking apart, this IS the kind of double-faced behavior which institutional investors take keen note of.
Why would anyone (especially a a chartered accountant, and professional director and investor with 25 years’ experience in senior and CEO roles in private and listed companies) sell shares when the shares are so undervalued?
In my journey of investing over the years, I always recall an institutional investor dumping his fund's total shareholding of Ceramco's shares when Charles Bidwill stepped down complaining of ear-ache problems which prevented him from flying BUT was rumored to be in a plane a few weeks alter.
The manager did the right thing as Ceramco's share price almost totally collapsed a few months later.
One thing about the collapsing share price has been it’s been consistently going down .....lucky for them it hasn’t crashed and they’ve avoided getting a speeding ticket
Would have responded that they are fully compliant with disclosure rules anyway but a bit embarrassing getting a speeding ticket.
Looks as though the sellers are buying HGH.?
It’s some time since they came out with that vague sort guidance ...like was npbt going to be 10% down on previous guidance or was it just a suggestion it could be.
Well, 11 months of the financial year has now passed. They must have a decent feel for how the year has gone and what the full year profit will be.
Share price collapsing and lots of uncertainty in the market about how good or bad things are.
They need to come out and say how the years panning out - it would be the decent and responsible thing to do.
Jeez, last year they couldn’t contain themselves sending out newsletters and having shareholder sessions promoting how wonderful they were and all that sort of crap. The silence over the last few months has been deafening
An update to Shareholders is urgently needed .....but I hold my breath as I reckon it very unlikely.
I smell a fight with the auditors over stock values etc.
Something just does not make sense - a share buyback is to benefit ALL shareholders and the best way to benefit ALL shareholders - certainly not the sellers.
But TRA seems to be the only buyer currently? And paying up to get stock even while the seller(s) are relentlessly selling down, including said director selling 30,000 shares.
Surely tRA should be backing off in the face of the relentless selling and only take out the seller(s) at the lowest price possible?
Last year the shareholder newsletter was dated 4th April.
Before that..29th March,Dealer Loyalty Share Scheme.
..................29th March.Divie
..................12th March SPH Milford.
...................1st March opportunity for end of life vehicles for Turners.....Only this one and the next one were before 2nd March.
..................27th February.Turners reports minimal impact from stink bug.
From the last annual report.Directors shareholdings or interests they represent.
Grant Baker 7.02%
Paul Byrnes 3.8%
Matthew Harrison 8.2%
Alister Petrie..7,95%
Total 26.97%
A lot of skin in the game.
A lot of skin lost.?
Finally sussed how the Turners ‘clipping the ticket’ business model works
Now that’s three of us — Todd, Percy and me. I fear Baker and Byrnes don’t really know.
https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status...153263617?s=21
I know of some very wealthy ChCh car dealers.
One told me he started by financing one in ten cars he sold.A few years later he was financing every car he sold,however the real money was made in developing car yards.
So a finance company, Dorcester, managed to unlock Bartel's blocking stake in Turners Auctions ,thereby taking Turners over.Bartel have retained their holding.
Turners develop sites,sell and auction vehicles,finance them,insure them,and even help insurance companies with the logistics for end of life cars.
How that can be compared with Mark Bryers' Blue Chip is beyond me.
Turners would be better compared to Mainfreight, who not only develop sites,run trucks and other logistic services.
PS.I knew of Mark Bryers well before he ran Blue Chip.He helped a garage manufacturer in ChCh go broke.Having met him ,it was easy to know to avoid anything he was associated with.
Chill!
Was just responding to https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status...153263617?s=21
I sat in on one Blue Chip presentation (after Macquarie Bank bought in) and they (including two directors who were ex-National Party ministers) showed how their business model was all about clipping the ticket as many times as they could. Nothing was said about the poor old clients and customers of Blue Chip - how they were better off because they allowed Blue Chip to clip the ticket!
Suffice to say, we ran a million miles and I recall a year later, Macquarie took the Blue Chip & its clip the ticket model to Australia etc etc etc.
Got to read more attentively - percy gave me a big fright mentioning Bryers (ex Blue Chip) and Turners in the same post
Thought he was talking about the guy who ran the last Turners AGM first read through.ii
So you and I knew to avoid Bryers and Bluechip.You because you went to a presentation, and me because I knew of his involvement with a ChCh garage manufacturer.
Turners I know because my daughter brought a car off them which they "clipped the ticket" with finance.She found them excellent to deal with.
My brother-in-law confirmed this, when he brought a vehicle from Turners, and had to sell it back, because of changed circumstances.
So we both rely on personal experience before investing.
I have taken this a bit further by phoning Paul Brynes and attending Turners presentations [Todd Hunter and Aaron Saunders].All have spoken frankly and openly to me.
Weird thing about Byrnes selling 30,000 of his 3,414,860 shares for $69,900 was that only a few weeks before he collected a dividend of about $136,000 (plus all those juicy imputation credits).
Wasn’t that long ago he proudly telling us that he had bought quite a few at about $3
Must be a huge deck ....and the cost of timber is going up fast
Bit tough when you have to disclose dealings eh ...people jump to conclusions
You guys assume too much. You assume that Byrnes owns his shares freehold, without knowing what loans he has secured against those assets. The directors were all pretty confident at AGM time, So confident they could never believe the share price could fall post AGM, and they may have extended themselves accordingly. On the surface, Byrnes selling those shares so soon after topping up at $3 and banking a bumper dividend doesn't make sense. But it might make perfect sense if Byrnes has had a tap on the shoulder from his own bank and has been given a margin call.
SNOOPY
You are talking about someone getting a margin call on a $7m value shareholding and selling $69,000 worth...that someone who is collecting more than $500k per annum in dividends. Have another think about those numbers mate and ask yourself if anything you have suggested sound realistically plausible...
I didn't say $69,000 was the whole margin call. Maybe the margin call was $569,000? I admit I could be way off track here. But why would Byrnes sell $69,000 worth of shares if he didn't have to? I mean building a deck in Auckland with the current shortage of builders? Byrnes would have had to book a couple of years ahead to get builders to come. Plenty of time to save with that time lag.
Maybe after being 'rattled' at the AGM, and seeing the latest Mainzeal /Shipley fallout in the news, Byrnes decided he needed some of his own director liability insurance cover in a hurry?
SNOOPY
The possibilities are endless I guess ranging from gambling debts or hookers or a P habit to buying his aging mum a Summerset retirement unit.
Probably nothing to see here re Byrnes share sale or as Percy says ‘funny peculiar’
If both yahoo and the native is correct it must have been an off market sale ....volume that day was a lot less than 30,000 and the high of the day was less than the $2.33 he got.
i see vehicle imports this yr were pretty similar too last jan/feb last yr but be very interesting next few mths as last yr they were very high in mar, apr , may. be telling if we get a marked decline next few mths
Maybe... Just maybe ..
He wants to spend a little of his money.
Might have decided that he wants more than bread and water..
The end game for cars ....things come to NZ quite quickly these days so are Turners threatened?
http://www.businessinsider.com/carpo...-europe-2019-3
Not Marilyn’s ‘Disintermediation‘ but a form of industry disruption
Doubt very much myself that any bank will lend against a non-NZX50 listed company like TRA on a margin call basis.
A finance company may but there are few of those left!
As to why he would sell 30,000 shares - it's not the number which matters so much as the obvious implication of a director selling into a falling share price and into a share buyback!
He cannot be that naive that he cannot understand the implication and market perception of a director holding 3.4m shares selling shares into a share buyback and 'undervalued' situation (as stated by directors)!!!!!
72k shares out of 160k odd traded on Friday were bought back, more buying interest from others developing as there is more depth on the buy side.
Interesting article ... though a number of dots don't seem to line up.
If it is Uber and Lyft killing off the car market - than why would tyre sales go down? Don't Uber and Lyft cars need tyres as well? Same is true for vehicle production - as long as people chose to be transported in individual vehicles (vs. mass transport) I don't see a big impact.
They are throwing as well some political one-offs into the mix which certainly would not impact on the global car market. I.e. if car production in Europe gets more expensive due to BREXIT barriers , than this is a temporary problem, not a long term trend - or does anybody believe the European industry is not able in producing the required (and so far from Britain imported) parts themselves?
Turkey's new car registrations significantly dropping due to a incompetent autocrat crushing its economy? - Yeah, sure, but how does this impact on the world market? What about emerging nations who still look for more individual transport - they didn't show India's new car registrations which are exponentially rising: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ions-in-india/
Only reason I can see for the world wide car market to go down is if demand goes down world wide.
But no doubt - there is a worldwide trend for people living in cities to reduce individual driving - which is amplified by a world wide trend for people to move into cities. One of our boys lives in Singapore and his family doesn't own or need a car (and it is not due to lack of money): Public transport, Grab (the new Uber there), Taxi - it is all much cheaper and more convenient than the hassle and cost of owning a car and finding a parking space.
Question is - how relevant is all of this for the New Zealand market (and this is where TRA operates)?
For starters - Singapore has 8000 inhabitants per sqkm, New Zealand only 15. I am wondering whether this could have as well implications for the individual car market?
Not sure whats currently going on with TRA - but I don't really expect the overall New Zealand individual car market to be crushed over the next handful of decades ... and none of the trends and causes highlighted in the article seems to be particularly relevant in a New Zealand context.
And apart from that - as Snoopy rightly highlighted - TRA is not really a car company, they are a finance and insurance service provider with a car business feeding these more profiatble parts of the company. It won't be Uber and Lyft killing them - only if there evolves a trend that people don't want to take out loans anymore to buy anything, than they might be in trouble ...
Even though the share price was off its highs last June it seems to have been in steady decline since
Strange last June was when the Bakery shared out its shares to its partners ...maybe the timing is just conincidence.
Along with Baker’s non attendance at the AGM it sort of signals a dysfunctional Board is operating. That’s not good
Wishing like hell that white knight rides into town to save the day
Dysfunctional Boards do not own between them 26.97% of a company.
Yes I am sure you are right that the Business Bakery share out to its partners,is one of the causes in the weakness of Turners' share price.
The Hugh Green estate sale was another.
The only way for the share price to recover is for Turners to produce ongoing good results.
I have heard Grant was invited to a special Ferrari event in Italy, combined with a trip in EU & US, which clashed with the new AGM date. Probably a fair excuse for not attending if the date was changed on him.
Beagle (and probably others) sold out pretty quickly after the ‘downgrade’ came ....I’m still holding
Reminds of the old saying ‘What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end’
Not when you're the Chairman and asking for an exorbitant fee increase. Mate, when you were a young fella didn't your mother tell you work comes before play :p
Trade Me saying the vehicle market is slower since November is a bad sign. They would know what with having over 90% of vehicle listings on the NZ market.
[QUOTE=
Trade Me saying the vehicle market is slower since November is a bad sign. They would know what with having over 90% of vehicle listings on the NZ market.[/QUOTE]
Just as well Turners added 250 new originators in the first 6 months.
Wonder how many more they since added.
ps.I note our wonderful PM missed this year's Ratana do,to join other world leaders.
Ferrari are certainly the motor worlds' world leader.
Couta1.I think it is fantastic having a "Petrol Head" as Chairman.
ps.Bet he would not be seen dead in a Holden..!!!..lol.
Exactly, and this at a time when there was a resolution to raise his Chairman's fees to $150,000 or was it $160,000, I forget. Maybe he was simply too much of a coward to front up to the snarling Beagle ? Whatever the reason I am so pleased I dumped most of mine at $3.20.
Percy, Mercedes-Benz are taking Formula 1 by the scruff of the neck not Ferrari.
Personally I think whatever Jacinda does or doesn't do is of no relevance to the point we're discussing.
The Holden thing you are trying to milk is getting very old. Says a lot about you in my opinion and how desperate you're becoming with this share.
If Ferrari offered Lewis Hamilton a drive with them, he would be there like a shot.
The way Ferrari are shaping in pre-season testing I think Mercedes have a huge fight on their hands this year.
As Frank Gardner used to say "When the flag drops,the bullsh"t stops".
We will know on the 17th.
Never get emotional about shares and companies.
Clouds your perspective and judgement.
How is it at the end of day someone can come in and buy/sell at $2.14, dropping the SP 1 cent for the day - when pretty much all other trades during the day were at $2.15?
11:06 was the only other $2.14.
Attachment 10364
Are you suggesting someone has a big short on it? If it was some sort of large cap Aussie stock , maybe a put option.
I dont really think so.
Last September at the AGM when the share price was $2.90
SLIDE 5. SHARE PRICE
The only area of performance that has disappointed is our languishing share price. As it must be a concern for all shareholders we should take some time to discuss possible reasons and market feedback.....
.........
So why is our share price currently around $2.85, well below the price suggested by conventional analysis in these reports? And trading at a level at which the Board sees value – you will have seen directors and senior executives including Grant, Todd and myself recently buying at around $3.00 per share.
Etc etc etc sob sob sob
A few months on and as the NZX reaches an all time high Turners share price continues to collapse and reaches what essentially is an all time low.
Something must be dramatically wrong with this outfit and the company is saying very little .¿the silence is deafening
Market sentiment is such a powerful force and usually so difficult to pinpoint unless it's one 'in your face issue' like a bunch of insiders dumping their shares. So with a TRA regardless of what the real issues re if any, the market sentiment is easily monitored by the charts and simple TA will tell you when it's time to buy in, riding the sentiment back up again and enjoying those juicy dividends. The time is not now but it could be close.
Still on my watchlist and I agree about watching TA. What on earth is going on in consumers minds that is supressing demand in the vehicle industry ? Its a hard one to figure but with TA you don't need too. Looks pretty grim across the Tasman too. https://www.caradvice.com.au/731211/...february-2019/
I'll be pleased when the buy back is over.
Every day there is a new market announcement and I eagerly expect a positive market update. But no. Just a few thousand more shares bought at an ever decreasing SP
Buy backs results in each shareholder owning a bigger slice of the cake.
Turners directors, who are already large shareholders, understand this well,and I expect the low prices being paid to buy back shares, will see the buyback extended.
That would make good sense to me.
Talked to another used car dealer (son of a good friend) yesterday to get a feel of what's happening out there.
He runs a very successful small yard - 20 to 25 vehicles at a time - mostly Japanese imports which he sources through his agent in Japan. He also deals in ex-demo from the European marques.
Nothing new, I don't think but -
The used car market has slowed down a lot in the last 6 months and is extremely competitive with far too many players who do not know what they are doing. An added problem is that new car prices have been discounted and some new car dealers have been stuck with too much stock after playing the game of ordering additional stock to get the volume rebates at end of quarters. He cited BMW as the worse example - why there are currently plenty of ex-demo BMWs around for sale.
Margins in used cars were fantastic 5 years ago (as high as 50%+ with the el-cheapos very high mileage under $5k cars) but year by year, margins have been dropping to the extent that it has become too 'dangerous' to be holding too much stock.
Many smaller players have left the game - there will be a war of attrition until the sound and well operated ones remain. The smaller players quitting stock as they leave the industry is putting additional short term pressure.
Asked him about Buy Right Cars - his view is that the company's huge stock and overheads will be bleeding money during the current shake-out period.
Read and take it for what it is worth.