'Staggering' number of households behind on their mortgages
People stop paying their mortgages so they can shop at Hallensteins & Glassons :p
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'Staggering' number of households behind on their mortgages
People stop paying their mortgages so they can shop at Hallensteins & Glassons :p
Pretty amazing H2 profit in line with last year when it covered all the lockdown period in NZ and most of the turmoil in Oz
Pretty amazing stuff
well Mr B is waiting for under 3 dollars with a crash in the consumer about late november and the xmas trading update in january a slump? looking at the GFC graph its a steady climb for 3 years.
Imagine if there was no virus the result would have been? and the share price?
"
The Company advises that the unaudited sales for the 12 months ended 1 August 2020 were $287.76 million, an increase of 0.1% on the prior year ($287.55 million). "
The last time it sold off was on competition flooding in from europe and that resulted in? HLG overcoming the challenge and going on to take the GOLD and vanquishing the usurpers.
In my opinion its now very unlikely to go under $3.50 again after this very resilient result. Fair to say the market, (as am I), is very surprised by the strength of the result looking at the share price.
What's a fair price is something I am working on at the moment....so many unknowns with the extent of Covid effect in FY21 and FY22.
Mr B wont we have to wait to see the balance sheet ? and im only thinking a fair price today. Ill leave future prices to more experianced accounting experts. But it appears the consumer has taken there hard earned cash and purchased the goods and they have the final word.
im expecting the share' ies people to go wild!
DISC: got some.
HLG always run a very tight ship with their balance sheet so I don't need to wait and see that.
My updated valuation on an earning basis is $4.78 which assumes a similar level of Covid effect in FY21 and FY22 as occurred in FY20
I think there's sufficient margin of safety at the current price of just over $4 for investors to take a modest stake for dividend yield as part of a well diversified portfolio.
Others comments that we're headed to a zero interest rate is not in dispute at all. The argument is what sort of a dividend yield premium should one expect for HLG compared to say GNE which is yielding 6.1% plus imputation credits ? They're about 7.5% gross yield incl of imputation credits but we'll know a lot more tomorrow when they report.
For what its worth I have used a 1.5% gross premium assumption over GNE, (this on the face of looks modest for a retailer compared to a utility but HLG does have a stellar track record of divvy payments) and I want to see 9% gross yield inclusive of imputation credits for HLG and I have assumed in the medium term HLG can pay its last 16 year average of 31.5 cps in fully imputed dividends. Current year earnings at the mid point are 46.3 cps so 31.5 cps is a fairly conservative assumption and well below the payout ratio of recent years so the risk in the medium term is to the upside in my dividend assumption.
31.5 cps / 0.72 = 43.75 cents per share gross and at 9% gross that gives a value to me of $4.86 on a dividend yield model assuming no growth in dividends over time and risk free interest rate staying at 1% for the medium term.
That's where I see it for now...so much depends on how Covid plays out and only time will answer that question. I think on a balanced view of risks and rewards HLG are a pretty good hold at around $4.15 as an income stock. Disc: I bought a modest stake this afternoon. Probably worth noting that at $4.15 you're really only paying $4.00 for future earnings as you get 15 cents back as a dividend in a couple of weeks so yeah at $4 net I think that's pretty good buying considering how resilient the business has proved itself to be which I must confess has been most surprising.
Gosh that was FAST WORK! Thank you MR B i will have to repay the gentlemen with a wine or beer of his choice if im ever lucky enough to have the opportunity. many thanks we will be increasing our holdings if it drops below 4 dollars as it often does wobble about!
GNE reporting a reserve increase in kupe i see.
Once again HLG shows itself to be a smart and robust company. I bought some of these bad boys this avo. Am considering getting some more tomorrow and am wondering what people think about this part of the announcement. It states, " The Directors have declared an interim dividend of 15 cents per share (fully imputed) (last year 20 cents per share) to be paid on 4 September 2020. The Group's balance sheet and projected future cash flow remains strong. Stock levels are also well managed.
A full profit release will be made to the market on 25 September 2020 when a
final dividend will be considered."
Am I understanding this correctly in thinking the 15 cents divi (imputed) is guaranteed Sept 4 and is catch up for the lack of divi in April? Also there is a possibility of a divi announcement late Sept normally paid Dec? That means a a possibility of 2 divis pretty close together? This is if all goes well of course. Any thoughts??