This time is different - except that it is not
The great thing about the current environment for airline operations is that you can be reasonably sure of certain things (there is no absolute certainty):
1) The current price of oil is regarded as unsustainable and will rise. But when and by how much is unknown, but if you are taking a longer term view then you use, say, US$80 a barrel as your guide. Of course the actual $/bbl price at any date is a complete guess.
2) When airlines are making good profits they expand their operations, new airlines and even new business models appear, competition intensifies, fares start to fall and profit margins get cut. This is already happening - factor it in.
3) The unexpected happens and it is usually not good - you should expect and allow for this.
4) It often ends in tears.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Discs:
Buy the best fit of schedule and price - flying is a commodity and there is little brand loyalty.
Have flown with at least 9 different airlines in the last 12 months and am booked to fly with another 3 in the near future.