what if Labour / Green / Lila(h) / Winston First win .... (investment strategies)
Hi folks,
not sure whether this belongs into a different thread given that this one seems to be mainly used to discuss the political beauty (or lack thereof) of the current contestants.
Given however that we are all investors (some with a shorter and some with a longer horizon) I was wondering whether it would be appropriate to discuss investment strategies how to conserve capital if the Left wins (whatever the chances, but it is clearly not impossible given MMP and the 5% cut off clause for smaller parties randomising any election result)?
Just looking through my portfolio and watchlist:
Energy (like MRP, MELCA, GNE, CEN, NWF?) would probably do well if National wins ... and tank if it is the Left (with a predicted recovery 3 years later) - on the other hand NWF might get a huge shot into the arm if Left wins thanks to Green and potentially some more carbon credits ...
Health (like ABA, ACY, EBO?) ... not sure - might do well under both options and even get a shot into the arm if Left wins (rapidly increasing health spending)
Retirement villages (like SUM, MET, RYM) - difficult ... I could imagine that the Left might look with taxing eyes at their hidden profits - SP might stop to rise under a Left government.
Retail (like WHS, HLG, BGR, KMD) ... might initially do well under Left: increased minimum wages, more money to spend. On the other hand - prices would rapidly inflate thanks to a tanking Kiwi dollar (more expensive imports) and interest rates would shoot up, both meaning less money to spend. Long term not sure, whether Left would be good for retail shares?
Infrastructure (like IFT, CNU, TTK) ... if Left wins, than IFT likely to follow the electricity generators. CNU - risky with both options, but in my view quite hopeless under Left (unless the Internet party cuts a deal) :sleep:, TTK might do well under Left - more subsidies for small and isolated groups (high speed internet to every marae?).
Mining (like BRL, CRP, NZO, OGC) ... likely to tank or die under Left (Green), though you never know - Labour needs to put some dime towards jobs on the West Coast to keep its voters happy. Probably depends whether it would be a Labour / Green or a Green / Labour coalition. OGC probably safe bet - exiting from NZ anyway.
Agriculture (SML, FSF, ATM, PGW, DGL, SAN) ... hard to say ... neither Labour nor Green like Farmers, but than I guess the Left can't kill the milking cows (well, not all of them) - i.e. probably will do reasonable (depending on world market);
Building / Construction (like FBU, STU, OIC) - might do ok-ish under both options - though Labour is currently promising to put more of our money into the ChCh rebuild ...
Materials & Manufacturing (NPX, MVN, SKL) - same as above;
overseas funds (MLN, TEM, BRL): within reason probably a good hedge against a tanking Kiwi-Dollar (and with that against a Left government), but obviously all of these funds are dependant on a lot of factors outside of NZ government control.
Now - I do realise that this is not a comprehensive summary of all industries - but I think I caught most of the ones which might feel a difference under a change of government.
What shares would you hold to hedge against a change of government?
Interested to get some views from the Left ...
Labours support base is dangerous for NZ as a whole.
I think the decline in Labours support base is dangerous for NZ as a whole - for everyone. Only 25 voters in every 100 will vote for Labour with current polling and feel the MMP concept has gone off the rails. We need two major political parties, but sadly we only have one - National. Only 45 voters in a 100 won't be voting for National.
Labour is now only a minor party, all be it the biggest minor party. It will be interesting when all the parties get air time on our two major networks to see if Labour has reduced space for a party political broadcast. In the past it has been based on a proportion of popularity much to the dislike of the Greens and NZ First at the last election, will Labour suffer the same fate this time around - I don't know! If there are set rules then Labour could and would be very upset that they will only enjoy half the air time National will receive. Or it would be hugely unfair if Labour gets double the air time of lets say the Greens and the same amount of time as National if they are just a minor party. If that was the case, over half the voters(National voters) will face more than half the amount of air time for other political parties - that's not fair. Labour should have reduced time for their party political broadcasts & if they don't like that - get more votes and less partners.
The other big problem I have with Labour polling so poorly is - what if a left coalition wins on the night? It's on the cards and quite possible. Will Cunliffe be the P.M? Enter Winston Peters if he gets over 5% and if he doesn't get what he wants that victory will slip away. If Peters doesn't play up what cards will fat.com play? Hone could be the new Peters! Russel Norman won't stand back like last time after Labour turned their back on him, what will he say or do? It's a dogfight and well off the rails. Don't you think that maybe, just maybe this is why National is polling so well at the moment? The way I see it, this election is a win, win, win for National voters if they win or lose. How will five waring coalition partners govern a fractured Government? How will legislation get past?
Will all the promises Cunliffe made bankrupt the country for generations? Add the other four parties and their sweeteners into the mix and we could be a 3rd world Nation within five years. It's a soap opera. Either way are we are seeing the death of Labour as we know it? If I was a Labour supporter, I would be furious at those making the power plays within their ranks right now.
Please make Labour strong again for the sake of our country. Their weakness is ours as a whole.
Labour now trying to poach on Colin Craig's territory?
OK - I guess David Cunliffe had already enough flak and I start to be sorry for the guy ... but than it sort of feels he is asking for it:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...dailyheadlines
With the Left running away from him in droves it sounds like he is now embarking to find his support under the church going population ...