Joyce is no doubt very competent, but I don't think he would be wildly popular with the public in leader's role. Neither would Collins. You'll be well aware of what happens to a party if they appoint the wrong leader.
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FP: There's nothing wrong with David Cunliffe, hence your spin parroting the message that Crosby-Textor and National want out there. He's a very motivational speaker, and he's smart at the same time. Probably more than a match for Key, as we'll see in the leader debates.
Are you serious that Paula Bennett would make a great National PM? What are her qualifications?
So what? Manufacturing in all sectors rises and falls. Overall stats are great. Would you be happy if we still had factories churning out coppers and coal ranges? It's plain silly to worry about change and progress. The Greens would still like to see a blacksmith's shop on every corner. Just drop your horse off for re-shoeing while you popped into the barber's shop to get your beard trimmed. Every 'star performer' as you call them from fifty years ago was producing all sorts of things no longer needed. It will be no different in twenty years from now. The speed of change is accelerating, so don't get too wound up about it. With change comes new jobs, new opportunities and that's the exciting bit. Let it happen. We all benefit.
EZ, I have no doubt dc is an intelligent man. But one thing he is not to a huge part of the voting block, is motivational.
Only the dyed in the wool see that.
Most, i guess, would say slimy.
Labour needs to think about this when they pick the next leader. Somebody who can hopefully capture some center voters back.
I didn't say I don't like change. So when are these 42,000 new manufacturing jobs going to be advertised, to replace the ones National watched disappear? They didn't just watch that process, they hurried it along. So now we sit back and the market fixes it? Several years later, the market has not made a move in that direction. You, FP, are in a dream world, along with the National caucus.
Belg
The real test for any leader/government is not in times of economic expansion and prosperity, but in times of adversity. Those headwinds are on their way and I await with interest to see how John Key copes with this, to be honest I have real concerns that he will not.
You may recall that John KEY was asked what Prime Minister was his role model. He didn't hesitate to nominate Sir Keith Holyoake. Being mindful of his legacy I did some research and found that Sir Keith was our 3rd longest serving PM, at 11 years 140 days, in order for JK to equal this tenure in office he will have to remain in office until approximately April 2020. Seems a big ask to me, and unless he declares a one party state or we discover Norwegian scale oil fields off our coast, I don't think he will attain his goal. Why? By 2020 everyone will be sick of him, the press will be bored, economic cycles will test his largesse, the right will want a significant return on their political capital and importantly Paula Bennett and Michael Woodhouse etc will conspire to remove him.s The adoring fans will have vanished like autumn leaves in a storm. Not even Crosby Textor will be able to help.
Hi folks,
not sure whether this belongs into a different thread given that this one seems to be mainly used to discuss the political beauty (or lack thereof) of the current contestants.
Given however that we are all investors (some with a shorter and some with a longer horizon) I was wondering whether it would be appropriate to discuss investment strategies how to conserve capital if the Left wins (whatever the chances, but it is clearly not impossible given MMP and the 5% cut off clause for smaller parties randomising any election result)?
Just looking through my portfolio and watchlist:
Energy (like MRP, MELCA, GNE, CEN, NWF?) would probably do well if National wins ... and tank if it is the Left (with a predicted recovery 3 years later) - on the other hand NWF might get a huge shot into the arm if Left wins thanks to Green and potentially some more carbon credits ...
Health (like ABA, ACY, EBO?) ... not sure - might do well under both options and even get a shot into the arm if Left wins (rapidly increasing health spending)
Retirement villages (like SUM, MET, RYM) - difficult ... I could imagine that the Left might look with taxing eyes at their hidden profits - SP might stop to rise under a Left government.
Retail (like WHS, HLG, BGR, KMD) ... might initially do well under Left: increased minimum wages, more money to spend. On the other hand - prices would rapidly inflate thanks to a tanking Kiwi dollar (more expensive imports) and interest rates would shoot up, both meaning less money to spend. Long term not sure, whether Left would be good for retail shares?
Infrastructure (like IFT, CNU, TTK) ... if Left wins, than IFT likely to follow the electricity generators. CNU - risky with both options, but in my view quite hopeless under Left (unless the Internet party cuts a deal) :sleep:, TTK might do well under Left - more subsidies for small and isolated groups (high speed internet to every marae?).
Mining (like BRL, CRP, NZO, OGC) ... likely to tank or die under Left (Green), though you never know - Labour needs to put some dime towards jobs on the West Coast to keep its voters happy. Probably depends whether it would be a Labour / Green or a Green / Labour coalition. OGC probably safe bet - exiting from NZ anyway.
Agriculture (SML, FSF, ATM, PGW, DGL, SAN) ... hard to say ... neither Labour nor Green like Farmers, but than I guess the Left can't kill the milking cows (well, not all of them) - i.e. probably will do reasonable (depending on world market);
Building / Construction (like FBU, STU, OIC) - might do ok-ish under both options - though Labour is currently promising to put more of our money into the ChCh rebuild ...
Materials & Manufacturing (NPX, MVN, SKL) - same as above;
overseas funds (MLN, TEM, BRL): within reason probably a good hedge against a tanking Kiwi-Dollar (and with that against a Left government), but obviously all of these funds are dependant on a lot of factors outside of NZ government control.
Now - I do realise that this is not a comprehensive summary of all industries - but I think I caught most of the ones which might feel a difference under a change of government.
What shares would you hold to hedge against a change of government?
Interested to get some views from the Left ...