Sell Chorus, says Deutsche Bank, as regulatory risk multiplies:
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/sell-chorus-says-deutsche-bank-regulatory-risk-multiplies-wb-141848
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Sell Chorus, says Deutsche Bank, as regulatory risk multiplies:
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/sell-chorus-says-deutsche-bank-regulatory-risk-multiplies-wb-141848
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c...ultiplies.html
While it argues a case exists for greater government support in clearing up regulatory settings, allowing greater flexibility on the UFB rollout timetable to give Chorus opportunities to manage its costs better, and to push fibre up-take, Deutsche sees little likelihood of any such action occurring.
"We do not sense relief from the Crown on onerous contracts that could ease capex pressures or provide confidence in UFB take-up," the report says. "The government is progressing matters on the regulatory front but copper pricing could fall short and changes to the framework is subject to political risk over several years."
Accordingly, Deutsche has cut its dividend forecasts for Chorus for the 2015 financial year to 18 cents per share, down from 25.5 cents previously,
The report also laments the apparent lack of a bi-partisan political approach - ala MRP share float problems
$2.00 here we come............
...these contributions mostly show the dopey/boozy attitude of Kiwis -just like the SLOW SLOW HORROR SHOW on NZ roads. Only Kiwis seem to have the time to wait FOREVER in front of their screens for downloads.
...and only KIWIS can be so afraid of COM-COM rulings , which in the end will prove totally useless and super ineffective
Move forward KIWIS wake up from your dopey/boozy dreams of WE ARE THE BEST / as a matter of fact, you will become totally irrelevant with NO CHANGE
Kind Regards and buying more THANK YOU
[QUOTE=SparkyTheClown;413243]Where Deutsche Bank is wrong is over the political risk.
I strongly believe the government will step in to fix the regulatory process because they do not want to go into the 2014 election with their telecommunications and fibre policy a complete failure.
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When could one expect the government to "step-in and fix things" (if they do), a month, 2, 3 months, ??? after the CC decision on the 15 August?
What is a "normal" time-line for these sort of things? Any precedents?
The blind spot here is that some people believe bandwidth is like money; it will subject to inflation over time and so we will always need more. "It will be transformational..." - well you need to transform your mind before you could appreciate that idea I guess.
Unlike money, there are technologies to counter our need for bandwidth. Sure, there are always growing demands for more in general; but when computing power grows in parallel we also open the doors to even better performance for those counter technologies. For example there are better ways to compress files, or distributed mechanisms to transport bits from point A to point B.
I agree we will increase our need to be always connected; but it is not as simple as to link that with an unquestionable growth of bandwidth consumption, particularly in this case associating with fibre. Even now people don't pay real attention towards something like Project Loon from Google, it represents a whole wave of alternative technologies coming not only from well established by smaller vendors as well to disrupt the status quo.
Futurist - apt name given the topic but I disagree.
In my view, storage capacity and increases in bandwidth means that little time or money will be spent on compression etc. Just look at photos. Digital cameras use to be 1mp, now they are 12m. then camera phones were introduced and we went back to 0.5mp photos, but know they are back up to 12 with normal cameras up to 20mp and DSLR going into 39mb
TV has gone from SD to HD and next will be 4xHD (not sure what that is called).
Even music use to be shrunk to fit on your 256k mp3 player but now it will all be high quality given our phones are now 32Gb!
Technology will increase the size of the file, not decrease it, hence the the need for fibre.