Mikey, perhaps try telling the people that lost serious money in the finance company fiasco's, ($6 billion in total apparently), that the GFC bypassed us.
I think rather than engage in debate with those who appear to have their own agenda and are making their own amateur efforts to predict future margins its overdue we considered what the professionals are predicting.
First lets take a simple reality check. We all know lots more competition is coming and some is here already. We all know the effects of this are already being felt and will largely be in effect for much of FY17 and will be in full effect for the entire FY18 year. Analysts are also predicting fuel prices to return to some sense of normality by Fy18..we know yields move with fuel prices so even if they're different from the so called normal level, yields will adapt themselves so profit won't be materially different.
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/ Here we see the professional analysts are predicting, two years after the so called peak of the cycle that EDITDA margins will be 19.89% with all the effects of the extra competition. We can also see they're predicting EPS of 38.8 cps. 10 year average PE is 11 and interest rates are at 60 year lows so there's an argument for some PE expansion. If we attach an average PE of 12 to say average earnings of say 38.8 cps, (I will leave you folks to do the maths) we can see the potential for a steep recovery in the SP once all the uncertainty of extra competition and the VAH matter is successfully concluded.
Consensus broker valuation is $2.82.