FYI, new USA a2milk advert/promo
http://a2milk.com/try_a2_milk
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FYI, new USA a2milk advert/promo
http://a2milk.com/try_a2_milk
This 'takeover' by the multi headed hydra: Leppington Pastoral Company (Perich Controlled) New Hope, Freedom (Perich substantial shareholder) and Moxy Farms looks like a lot of people airing their dissatisfaction, rather than a serious bid.
Of those four, I would say it is China's "New Hope" that has by far the largest financial muscle behind them. Yet when "New Hope" were roped into the Agria takeover of PGW, they famously arranged a kind of preference share arrangement where they would share in dividends from PGW in the future. IOW they were taking money out of the consortium, not putting money in. The question is do New Hope have the willingness to put money into ATM, or do they just want to own some Australian farmland? Given past behaviour, and the fact that the Chinese government are more concerned about propping up their own stock market bubble at the moment, I would say no new capital will be available from New Hope in teh immediate future. ATM reinvesting all profits means no possibility of cashflow for shareholders of ATM (present or future) for the forseeable future either.
Freedom ending up with 10% of the proposed "Australian Fresh Milk Holdings", will be a smaller proportion than the 20% they control of the independent ATM now. So no new money from that source. And priority for AFMH will be to put more money into existing and new dairy sites, not promote A2.
Deans in the USA not in a position to inject any meaningful capital either.
Some still hold out hope. But what I see is the multi headed hydra killing its own 'bid' (which doesn't yet exist anyway) stone dead to anyone who dares looks at the situation critically.
SNOOPY
Thanks sb9, the a2 promotional video made for use in America is a cracker. Should work a treat on US TV, and also via the web. It's good to see a2MC is getting on with its real job while everyone else speculates about the takeover. My guess is that they'll make similar videos for the UK and Chinese markets. A good idea is worth repeating.
Good one sb9. Do we have another player?
"[/QUOTE]Sources told Fairfax Media last week that JD.com was also partnering with an international dairy company to buy a strategic stake in takeover target a2 Milk.
A JD.com spokesman declined to comment on the speculation.
However, Mr Liu said last week that the company was interested in investing in any company that could "ensure high-quality products for our consumers".
Great advert! Does anyone know if there is any new research in the pipeline? It would be timely to have some good news on the scientific front. Also, I'm keen to understand the Australian supply arrangements better - does anyone know how secure the supply is?
Most of the a2mc milk is sourced from leppington and Moxey farms. No one knows what the duration of a contractual supply from these farms is but it would need to be pretty tight.
It is an issue I had raised (post 4457)and was also raised interestingly enough a few days later in a blog written by Prof Woodfield in his latest blog. Those who control the supply hold the power. If FF wanted the a2 market to themselves then they could market "a1 free milk" and cut a2 out of the picture, however this is probably unlikely considering that they are trying to stitch a deal up with Deans. Unlikely that Deans would enter into any arrangement where a supply of a2 milk was not guaranteed in some form. This would also cost FF big time in terms of their effective 19% share of a2mc unless they are busy offloading on the open market under speculation that something positive for a2mc is happening. Probably illegal anyway.
The rumoured disagreement between the Perich Boys and Babidge is a bit of a concern, but that has never been verified.
http://www.jd.com/ Type in A2
No i can't, me kee wee. there is translation button there to try but i didn't persevere.
Whats going on, surely we should have had an update by now!
Almost two weeks from the big announcement, nothing out yet. May be next week?
I did mention at the time that there is a 2 week 'notice and pause' rule for T/O's, so why anyone expected something before next week, I really don't know.
Notice and Pause means they give notice, but can't make the offer for a minimum of 2 weeks, nor can they 'legally' buy shares on-market - the 'pause' - but any other unrelated party can, at any price.
They must also make the T/O within 30 days, otherwise the process would have to start again.
On the other hand, Babbage also said at the time that a formal T/O move was unlikely.
He also said they were late stage capital raising
lay your bets - take your pick
Just noticed it finished up at 68c on Asx at close, some late surge.
Thanks for that, Xerof. The clarification is most useful.
Actually, what Babidge said in his initial announcement was that "there is no certainty that the proposal will result in any transaction and the Board does not consider a takeover imminent". That makes it a bit difficult to predict whether or not a mere "expression of interest" is enough to start the clock ticking according to the Takeover Panel's timetable for a takeover bid.
The expression of interest was reported to the stock exchanges on June 22. If that is considered to be the start of a takeover process, we are now within the time period (14 to 30 days) when an offer has to be made. And the intending bidders can now be buying ATM/A2M shares.
The "offeror" (i.e. the bidding consortium") has to make its offer directly to A2M/ATM shareholders by the 19th of this month give or take a day or two.
Once a firm offer is made (if one is made), the board commissions an independent valuation of ATM's shares and an assessment of the offer.
I'm not clear as to exactly what happens if there is a counter-offer. Does this disrupt the timetable for the initial offer? A counter-bidder, would presumably be entitled to give notice and be granted due diligence (even though the Freedom-led group demanded "exclusivity"). And finally the board has to make a recommendation to shareholders. One assumes the Freedom-Perich rep on the board, Melvyn Miles, would not participate in that recommendation.
So the process may have quite a way to run yet. Please correct me if I am wrong in any of this, Xerof.
Cheers xerof, I did not know that timetable with t/o. Nice to learn new info regarding investing.
NT001, time flies when you depart NZ shores for a holiday - yes you are correct - we are past the 14 day minimum. You raise a very good point about the wording of their 'expression of interest' - that may be insufficient to be construed as an intention to make a T/O. (perhaps robbo could comment?)
TBH, I haven't been paying too much attention to this since the first flurry, but I see no further concrete facts have surfaced (other than the gathering of clues by interested posters)
On that basis your last comment is valid IMO, and I would hold a personal view that the clock has not started ticking yet. If there were to be an offer, then any other competing offer would follow the same process in terms of N&P. Yes, any director with a conflict of interest would be excluded from the process.
quite a chilly 21c here today - the locals are all moaning like hell. Just back from a 2.5 hr walk around the headland - 4 nudists on the isolated beach - all elderly males :t_down:
Got A2 in the fridge - ex Coles Noosa - no need for flyers - trampled in the rush to get near the chiller :D
The Indian Express
http://indianexpress.com/article/lif...afest-variant/
maybe tomorrow....
My worm has turned.... how about everyone elses? :-)
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=...&a=m26-12-9&c=
Not being a TA exponent, what does that mean Blobbles?
Which way has the worm moved?
Blobbles chart shows that the share price is rising and the 50 day moving average has cut through the 200 day exponential moving average.
When the 50 day cuts through the 200 day to the upside, its known as the golden cross which is a bullish sign. Typically, anyone who is short would be getting pretty worried at this point and would be covering their position.
Its interesting that blobbles has used the exponential 200 day moving avg rather than 200 day simple moving avg if his intention was to show the golden cross. Either way, from a chart point of view, its looking good.
What you can't see in the chart is that there is a potential take over occurring or capital raising so this could easily swing 20% in either direction based on the news that comes out in the coming weeks. I wouldn't use the chart to guide my investment decision right now.
Thanks Nasi, does beg the question though, is using pure TA to base buy/sell decisions realistic when ultimate decisions still require FA? Using that chart and your investment decision process (effectively ignoring it) does not produce anything decisive. There is the TA and then there is a "but". Is there always a "but" when a TA shows a "golden Cross" as you explain above, or is there always a possibility of a swing 20% either way when this occurs?
This situation is a bit unique given the potential takeover. There can be a 20% swing in any direction at any time on any stock regardless how good the chart looks.
TA is more about probability and gives you information about what the market has been thinking right up until now. e.g. is the price going up or is it going down? Is it about to hit resistance or has it just broken through resistance, are volumes increasing or decreasing etc..
I think it makes sense to use both FA and TA.
I like my 200 day EMA for ATM, seems to predict its movement a bit better looking historically.
The good thing about TA is that heaps of bots or people use it. If a golden cross happens, it can influence many different buyers which further reinforces the SP into upward/downward trends. It can help indicate game theory forces at play within the sharemarket. Of course any FA will always smash any TA, if tomorrow it is declared that the whole A2 thing is a huge hoax then it will smash the SP.
Hope not, just bought whole lot more in last couple weeks. 122,635,000 + shares have traded in the last 31 trading days. Ok, I have sold some and have since started buying back in. There must be a lot of new shareholders in that 31 days. Buying in from .51c up to 58c through to 68c to 74c. Some of them might be longer term holders and will probably not want to sell at a loss because of any hoax news. But who knows, anything can happen. If it is hoax news, then they should not be hoaxing us around.
122,635,000 is a lot of shares to own seaweed. i see why your'e motivated to hang around in supermarkets and soft sell A2 and push 2 litre A2 bottles 3 abreast.;)
Freedom and Dean Foods have both had strong share performance in recent days. Could be a precursor to news...often is.
Zeez, what happened there did we miss something...up 2c in a jiffy :t_up:
I'd say good news seaweed. My cynical view is that there is often a positive run before announcements.
Both NZX and ASX are up strongly today, so it may be a rising tide lifting all boats.
Yep, Id agree with that id say 80% of the time inc SP before ann means +ve news. (sirtex is one that come to mind in the 20%)
The more i read, the more i think we will get a T/O offer - im holding until then however have been tempted to take profits.
Unsure on price but i think it will be $1-$1.10 initially. - just my opinion could be wrong,
Looks like maybe my TA signal wasn't all hocus pocus after all?
Hope it lasts Blobbles! What would you expect from here on a TA basis?
Oh dear, here we go again. Of course it's always possible someone may declare "the whole A2 thing is a huge hoax", but not anyone with any scientific cred. Some so-called branding and advertising experts who know zilch about A2 sometimes cite the a2MC success in Australia as an example of clever promotion of a product that's really just the same as any other milk, but that's because they want everyone to believe that all sales success is due to branding and promotion rather than genuine product superiority and consumer satisfaction.
The fundamental science is settled. A2 milk is very distinctly different from A1 milk. They have different DNA, and A1 produces a medically hazardous peptide that is now indisputably linked not only with digestive discomfort in some consumers but with significant diseases including autism and schizophrenia. That's not disputed, although the precise details are still the subject of ongoing research.
As a matter of fact, a researcher from Northeastern University in Boston delivered a presentation at Oxford University in just the past few days reporting on new findings that A1 milk triggers oxidative stress, long known to be a key factor in both autism and schizophrenia. He said doctors therefore don't need to advise autism and schizophrenia patients to go dairy-free and protein-free - they just need to tell them to switch to A2.
There is some debate about suggestions published a decade or more ago based on very strong epidemiological evidence, that A1 milk is a significant factor (among others) in heart disease and diabetes. That also is the subject of ongoing research. But there has not been any scientifically credible suggestion in recent years that the "A2 thing" is a hoax.
So I think it's unfortunate when people on this thread raise the possibility that it's all a hoax, even just as a passing comment.
Jeez, don't be so sensitive, I was just raising a case of some extreme FA event obviously having a huge effect on the SP which screws up all the TA in the world. I could have easily have said "Tomorrow Deans and co offer $3.50 per share". Touchy subject huh? It sounds like you are too emotionally invested TBH.
$3.50 per share! I will show a few emotions if that's the case
Not really, blobbles, but there are still some people out there who like to raise doubts about A2, and various people on this thread have from time to time raised the possibility one way or another that "the A2 thing" might be disproved. I wasn't suggesting that you believe that, but the thread is open to all, including people who don't know the score and might be interested in sizing up a2MC for investment but could be very put off by the thought that followers of ATM consider it a possibility worth mentioning. No offence intended. Cheers
Exchange rate movements continue to be favourable to ATM, quite meaningful movement in all key currencies in recent months.
Does anyone here know the exact date of FY results announcement, I know its August, but don't know exact date.
So when can we expect an actual offer from someone? What is the in your own opinions "expiry" on the interest, meaning no offer is likely to come.
Hawkeye, it seems there is probably no deadline and it is not certain that an actual offer will materialise, although it seems likely - just not yet. If an "offeror" gives notice of an impending takeover bid, it is required to make its offer in writing to shareholders of the target company during the period 14 to 30 days after giving notice. If it doesn't do so in that window of time, there is no offer and the process lapses.
In this instance, Freedom Foods and Dean Foods indicated to the a2 Milk Company on or about 21-22 June an "expression of interest" in making a takeover bid for all shares in a2MC. But it appears this probably did not amount to giving formal notice of intention to launch takeover. The a2MC CEO, Geoff Babbidge said at the time that he did not expect a takeover offer in the short term future.
As we all know, additional parties have since indicated their wish to be involved in the takeover consortium, and this could be complicating the issue. Who would be included? What would be their respective stakes in the takeover vehicle? Where would the real decision-making power lie? Would they go for a full takeover (it might be hard to get 90% acceptance) or just a majority of the a2MC shares, probably much easier? What would they offer? What would be the purpose(s) of the takeover? Would the new owners simply acquire control of a2MC's IP and prevent anyone else using it, or would they continue implementing a2MC's global strategy? Would they run a2MC as a separate company or incorporate it into their takeover vehicle?
It seems that the vehicle would be Australian Fresh Milk Holdings (AFMH), which has been jointly set up by Freedom Foods, the Perich family (Leppington Pastoral) and Chinese food giant New Hope).
Freedom yesterday advised the ASX that AFMH has completed the purchase of Australia's largest single-location dairy farm, Moxey Farms, which happens to be a substantial supplier of A2 milk to a2MC. This is seen as an important preparatory step towards a potential takeover of a2MC.
The acquisition notice said: "Australian Fresh Milk Holdings Pty Ltd, a producer and seller of fresh milk for milk processors, has acquired Moxey Farms Dairy Pty Ltd., an owner and operator of dairy farms, for consideration of AUD80 million (USD59.47 million). Both companies involved in the transaction are based in Australia. Australian Fresh Milk is the joint venture company between Freedom Foods Group, Leppington Pastoral Company and New Hope Dairy. Under the terms of the Acquisition, the Moxey family would continue to operate Moxey Farms in a joint venture with the Perich family under a new Farm Management Agreement with AFMH. Upon completion, Freedom Foods will hold a 10% equity position in AFMH, with the balance held by Leppington Pastoral, Moxey Family and New Hope Dairy."
That would suggest that New Hope will be the big power in AFMH. And we know another big Chinese corporate, the online marketer JD, is also interested in a "strategic" stake in a2MC, but probably a smallish one. But where does all this leave Dean Foods, the biggest dairy operator in the US and one of the original parties to the "expression of interest" in a2MC? Would it be happy being a junior partner in a Chinese-run global dairy venture? Interesting.
The takeover code of conduct does not have a presence here because it was not a formal takeover, just an expression of interest. A formal takeover is one with specific terms i.e price offered for each share, so there is no 14 day takeover or 30 day limit, this is not a formal takeover, its just a chance to look at the books and for A2 to tell future shareholders they should think clearly before owning any shares given a takeover might happen. The reason there is a 14 day no takeover is so that existing shareholders can seek advice and sell their shares if they don't want to be part of it and 30 day limit so that it doesn't affect the company and its shareholders for too long. There also has to be a takeover notice under the NZX rules.
My assumption is that the consortia are still working with the board. If they were miles apart in terms of expectations then the ATM board would have finished the discussions and got on with the capital raise which was previously acknowledged as being imminent. Given that the consortia is doing DD, they do not need to wait for the full year results are announced, so my expectation is that a bid will be forthcoming, and before mid-August. As to quantum, my best guess would be an offer of $1, but I am hoping for something higher...at this stage I would not be a seller at $1. What about you others?
I would sell at $1 and I would consider re-investing some of that back into company who buys A2.
Anyone noticed that the 5pm boys are back in town and buying rather than selling. looks like a good sign that the patient are buying off the impatient plus the traders squaring off their books at the end of the day to me.
The expression of interest seems to be dragging on a bit, not sure if that is a good sign or not. More likely that the major shareholders want a higher price than the FF/Deans consortium may have anticipated, so trying to lower their expectations. If an offer comes I'm suspecting $1.05 FWIW.
I don't think due diligence would be holding up the offer, but as mentioned in post 4314, I think the consortium has some other complicated issues to sort out, including who is actually going to be in the takeover group and what the group intends to do with a2MC.
As for what I would accept, it isn't just a matter of how much, although I appreciate that many shareholders will make a decision based purely on that. I've had A2 shares since its early years and would take other issues into consideration as well. My preference would be that a2MC not be just another smart NZ company that gets swallowed up by foreign interests. So, my decision will depend on a number of factors including the structure of the bid, who is behind it and what the consortium announces by way of a strategic plan for the future. And will a2MC continue to exist as an entity, with minority shareholders?
Getting 90% acceptance might force the group to go higher than it wants to. There's a range of possibilities. It could offer a mix of cash and shares in AFMH. If the offer is low, there could conceivably be counter-offers. Where does Dean Foods fit into the picture - that's still a mystery at present.
I'm glad there are plenty of contributors to this thread who say they would hold out for well over $1, but I doubt if such preliminary positions can give very useful guidance at this early stage. Better to wait until we know what the terms of offer are, IMO.
Has Mac been de-listed.He is not in list of members. He was always ready with a top of the range assessment to stoke our pipe dreams.:)
Why do all these big companies want to buy little old a2 very tasty milk? Why are we even thinking of selling something that tastes so good? What can they see in the future that we cannot see? If the a2 was worth $1 per share ($660,066,000) then their first offer would probably be 80c looking for a bargain. They can see the potential and want to whip it up before it takes off into the stratosphere. I would not mind selling 10% of my shares, but I would like to go for the ride and one day get the dividends.
How do you get delisted? What did Mac do? I enjoyed reading his posts.
Ok, all set for another week then, interesting to see if anything surfaces this coming week.
Two announcements this morning. one saying revenue up by heaps another saying the EOI from the other party not good enough. What does the shareprice do on that news today one wonders. Great to see the company doing so well and I think its good that the directors are saying NO to the EOI.
Fantastic performance, never have they been so excited eh
a2m still in play methinks .....but they doing a good job in pushing the price up eh
Great performance and makes me want to throw heaps of money at any cap raise;but i don't really atm.:mellow:
yes indeedy
" The Board has also received other confidential enquiries indicating potential interest in the Company, and is in the course of evaluating these."
Does the forecast performance mean that cap raising may not occur?
Share price shows signs of moving no where... hype (and better results) already built into the price...
Share price shows signs of moving no where... hype (and better results) already built into the price at this stage...
(actually moved down!)
Of more significance perhaps was the removal of 300,000 resistance at .77.
the company has rejected there takeover attempt as inadequate so unless they substantially adjust the price no takeover will occur and a rights issue will happen.
they could bring in another cornerstone party as a shareholder thru a rights issue
Terrific result, and delighted the EOI is being rejected. Would like to see a2MC continue on its present course.
To me, one of the most significant parts of the update was that "New long term milk supply contracts with key milk suppliers in ANZ have been negotiated to support growing demand moving forward."
That would appear to mean there is no great threat of Perich and Moxey trying to put pressure on a2MC by withholding supply, as some of us had feared.
It's also very pleasing to learn human clinical trials of A2 Milk have been done in China and the results are to be published soon. That should give a significant boost not only to immediate sales inChina but also to the overall scientific rationale for A2.
Significant drop after that announcement
I go with NT001 on this one. Great that the board has rejected the offer, which only suggests that they've huge confidence in future potential for this brand. Happy to support them if they need more capital from current shareholders. The price drop today I believe is caused by short tem traders. I'm more than happy to ride this one till end. GO A2 MILK!!!
Yes one of my fears nicely removed NT.Quote:
That would appear to mean there is no great threat of Perich and Moxey trying to put pressure on a2MC by withholding supply, as some of us had feared.
All looking good. The EBITDA increase of 200% has probably got a lot to do with the exchange rate, however more important to me is the revenue growth and success in international markets.
While encouraging, especially in California, there is still a question mark over penetration into the UK market. It will take some time but the positive progress is likely to bring about more interest from other offeror companies.
Would not expect to see SP move much below 0.69 until something else is reported.
The science behind A2 is starting to get a good airing in the US. This item in a respected US newspaper is one of the best I've seen at educating consumers.
http://www.seattletimes.com/life/wel...milk-may-help/
There's just one unfortunate error that slightly detracts from the article. It says Guernsey herds have low A2 levels. Actually they have very high levels.
It's also interesting that this farm is not having its cows tested for A1-A2, presumably to save the quite small cost of testing. There is quite a degree of resistance by some independent farmers in the US to having to pay to have their cows tested, but that cost saving is counter-productive. It will prolong the conversion process, which can't be done by guesswork, even if they do select semen from A2 bulls. Quite apart from infringing a2MC's IP if they sell their milk as A2, they can't assure customers their milk is A2 until every cow in the herd has been verified by testing.
Brilliant lunchtime reading.
1. Trading update looking great, revenue growth means company is growing.
2. If you read between the lines board has basically said they need a higher price to t/o - looking after its shareholders.
3. FF/Dean's still interested + other party(s) have expressed interest.
The best things that update on T/O did was affirm the market speculation about other interested parties. Based on the growth increase couldnt be happier for cap raising to take place because as an existing shareholder the current result confirm that the board know what they are doing and how to apply the growth strategy successfully in other Countries. The cap raising will speed growth up and i feel benefit us existing shareholders even more
Actually it seems to me trading has been fairly subdued considering two quite big announcements this morning, and the interesting point is that the SP has quickly recovered most of its initial fall on both markets. It's not surprising there is demand out there, as we're now into phase 2 in which the known parties are engaged in further detailed "discussion" about a possible T/O and other parties are also expressing interest. There will be some jockeying for position going on with various runners eyeing up their rivals, like on the second lap of a 1500 metres. Various parties to a potential takeover, as well as speculators, may be wanting to establish a stake or increase their existing stakes.
If Dean Foods are still in the equation, which they seem to be, it might be logical for them to be accumulating a strategic stake so that they have a demonstrated interest in the company rather than just being an appendage to Freedom Foods in a complex and airy-fairy scenario dreamt up in Sydney. I'd rather like Dean to come in as a cornerstone shareholder through a share placement as suggested by Bull (post 4337), obviating the need for a capital raise to fund the US expansion.
Just throwing out there in light A2 board mention of other interested parties. Could Gina Reinhart throw her money after this, seeing the returns from mining are pretty much getting thinner and thinner, just a thought?
Its quite fascinating looking at the sales today. Sort of tells me there is an equal amount of sellers and buyers. I would be very surprised to see the SP pop up above 78c but not so surprised if the SP falls to 70c.
Pleasing to see that the FY16 revenue increase forecasted for the USA and UK represents around 14% of total forecasted revenue.
a2mc seems to project reasonably conservative numbers, so my expectation is that some positive traction is already happening. If they are forecasting $38 mio then it would not surprise me if double that is achieved.
Here's a very informative new story from The Australian, which has recently been well ahead of other media in getting good info from a2MC CEO Geoff Babidge and from the Perich-Freedom group.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1227448659508
In it, Babidge confirms the cap raise is on hold, and makes some interesting comments about his hope that the good results reported today - which were due to come out about now anyway, regardless of the EIO, will satisfy Perich and Freedom, who had earlier indicated concerns about the company's performance.
This item was not paywalled when I picked it up, but The Australian sometimes sticks stories behind its paywall later, in which case i'll flick the text through on this thread.
Thanks NToo1 but story now behind paywall. Me v happy with today's announcements. I don't want this company to disappear. Much nicer if Deans become part of the capital raise. If the SP drifts back to low 60c I'll be buying up heaps, however I think it will hold firm at current levels until further moves/announcements are made.
Article in Stuff this morning. http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/we...-have-to-offer
Trading on the ASX has opened at 69 cents, up from yesterday's close of 66.5c.
Strong activity today on both ASX and NZX. Wonder who's buying...could be that FF and Deans buying to go over 20% and then make takeover offer in open market, seeing that board has rejected their earlier offer??
well up to 70+ c on the ASX in late trade. 1.5 million off market traded (SP) at lkate stage NZ. Closed 78c NZX. ATM share price is going in the right direction for current investors. Surprised no SSH notices haven't come through with the amount that has been bought in sold in the last few weeks. Time will tell.