I guess you never know, and they do happen. But waiting for breathers with this stock can be a dear experience (considering all the lost opportunity cost). I talk from experience ... ;)
Discl: hold some (but wish I would hold more ...);
Printable View
I'm actually thinking the EPS will more than double this FY. Reason being more production facility being added by Synlait through the plant in Akl along with further additions to the existing capacity in Canterbury.
I'm picking NPAT for FY18 to be around 27.5c based on NPAT of close to $200mln. By which time I expect the buyback to be completed and that will add bit more to the EPS.
So, based on 27.5c EPS and apply say PE of 30 we're looking at a valuation target of $8.25 and if market is generous and attributes the current 40 PE multiple, that gives us $11.00 which is best case scenario.
All in all we should be close to the $10 mark if all goes as per plan and my short term target for ASM time in Nov is at least $6.00.
Pls DYOR...
Disc: was tempted to sell a small portion y'day but resisted the urge strongly and after looking through the numbers bit more thoroughly and will continue to hold...
Thanks for your thoughts on a fwd SP sb9. Much appreciated..... I was feeling lonely at $7.50!!
The November update is going to be very interesting.
$6 by November. The way they are going this morning it will be $6 by 2pm today. Sure is a lot of interest.
Yes its quite bullish and knowing myself I'm usually not that bullish in predictions, more conservative. However, I'm making an exception in this case. This is purely based on the fact that more production being available, stock is derisked of most threats (regulatory), UK operations being profitable (operating level) for first time in years and more opportunities in SEA market.
As an aside, the stage 4 (3+ years) seem to be picking up quite well in demand and apparently this does not need CFDA approval (source:hotcopper). And also reading on there, seems Blackmores have discounted their IF by upto 80% at sale price of AU$4.99 per tin, shocking, isn't it....on the other hand these guys can't keep enough on the shelves for customers, figure that.
Hence my reasoning for bullish post, I could be wrong but at least that's my workings anyway, happy to be challenged and corrected :)
Nice start to the day.
Aust Brokers Bell Potter have upgraded their 12 month buy rating to $A5.50
Attachment 9101
Well on its way to $7+... impressive
A $40M buy-back is only 1% of the current shares kicking around.
But if they did that year after year after year that would be something.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Who stole my carriage returns?
Happy that I topped up around the $4.90 mark recently.
Margins are everything.
A2 MILK COMPANY - NZ FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A FY17F RELATIVE PERFORMANCE ( +/- ) TO FORECAST OPERATING REVENUES GENERATED - NZDm 94.5 110.8 155.1 352.8 549.2 546.0 0.6% Cost of goods sold as a proportion of product trading revenues 64.30% 64.00% 64.80% 57.20% 52.03% 54.00% 2.00% Cost of promotional marketing as a proportion of trading revenues 4.80% 8.90% 9.40% 10.30% 7.65% 9.00% 1.35% Cost of logistics/shipping & freight as a proportion of trading revenues 7.90% 7.20% 6.00% 4.40% 3.67% 4.00% 0.33% Cost of corporate + other as a percentage of trading revenues 10.70% 15.00% 15.30% 11.40% 11.47% 11.00% -0.47% OPERATING EXPENSES INCURRED - NZDm 84.8 106.6 151.0 297.3 410.9 425.9 3.7% OERATING EBITDA GENERATED - NZDm 9.7 4.2 4.1 55.5 138.3 120.1 15.13% Operating EBITDA to revenue 10.26% 3.81% 2.64% 15.73% 25.18% 22.00% 3.18% ADJUSTED NPAT - NZDm 4.0 0.7 -1.1 31.4 90.6 81.9 10.62% Adjusted NPAT to operating revenue 4.20% 0.60% 0.00% 8.90% 16.50% 15.00% 1.50% Underlying EPS - - - 4.32cps 12.29cps 11.27cps
ATM.NZX FY17A FY18F FY19F FY20F ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE - CPS 12.29 18.00 23.00 26.50 SP AT FOREWARD EARNINGS OF 30x $5.40 $6.90 $7.95 $9.00
Thanks for sharing Hardt.
Here's my summary of ATM FY18 SP guesstimates to date;
BP Brokers - $A5.85
Hardt - $NZ 6.90
Me - $NZ 7.50
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10
Going to be interesting to see where this one goes.
http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COM...022/consensus/
As expected, big broker upgrades. 2018 forward PE of 28 doesn't look too bad to me in terms of fundamental value considering their stellar track record of growth and upgrades to production this coming year.