Why will there be more?
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You misread my post bull. I am not suggesting that this whole mess will be done in four weeks. I am thinking in terms of scenarios.
I am suggesting that four weeks is the absolute minimum disruption time, just one scenario. You then have to look at a more pessimistic (but realistic?) scenario of 4 months. Then look at what might happen if one year is the true lock down scenario. Then run each scenario as a separate analysis.
Finally assign a probability for each option you choose, and you will come out with a probability related result. This isn't an estimate of what will happen. In fact the answer you get will almost certainly not reflect what actually happens. But it does give you a result that is the best estimate you can get of the financial return you might expect.
If the garment you buy has a shelf life of twelve wears, then I do expect those customers to come back. They would have no choice. How many washes do those pre-ripped jeans last for anyway?Quote:
Isnt hlg demographic the one to take the biggest job hit?
how high is cloths buying on your shopping list when your on the benefit?
You are talking about a long term trend here bull. This is a different issue to a pandemic event which has immediate effect. The future you paint here may turn out to be what happens. But short term, having people roll up for entertainment experiences to replace retail in the current climate isn't going to happen.Quote:
Are not malls in decline overseas as a means of people shopping, thats why mall owners are changing them to experiences so i doubt mall owners will care if a few shops close, there will be plenty to replace them in time.
SNOOPY
For the past few years they have been replacing retail stores on many main streets. When I visit Cornwall in the UK nearly every other shop is now a charity shop. The rents have got cheaper and they have moved in to replace more traditional retailers. Plus in any recession they will be busy, at the moment it is mainly he shabby sheek brigade that use them.
fair point snoopy and totally like the way you think. analysis takes in all senarios.
It would be good to hear what your thoughts are about the demographics and there impact on hlg. mine are that they will lose jobs mostly young casuals and part timers etc a large number of these maybe hlg shoppers
maybe. micheal hill just announced
In the interests of the health and safety of our people and our customers, Michael Hill today announces that it will suspend operations of its Australian store network for an indefinite period with immediate effect.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...480/319429.pdf
I don't think that is likely. But I'm sure lots of unlikely things are happening right now.
They have quite a few Glassons stores in Aus (32 Glassons, 4 Hallensteins) vs NZ which is 37 Glassons and 43 Hallensteins. The scale of their Aussie operation is bigger than you might realise.
Wow, HLG surging today.
From
"https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350510" A non-price sensitive announcement apparently (from Kiwi Property Group).
"In light of the four-week closure of non-essential business ordered by the Government yesterday, Kiwi Property has identified a small number of tenants, relative to the total number of tenants in its portfolio, with a contractual right to suspend rental payments if they are unable or chose not to occupy or utilise their premises because of the Government order."
I wonder if HLG is one of those tenants?
"If all of the tenants exercise this right for the entire four-week shutdown period, the Company expects it would result in a drop in gross rental income of around $6 million, representing less than 3% of the prior year’s gross rental income."
Hang on, this is just for four weeks. If we extend to four months (17 weeks) then the gross income loss extends to:
$6m x ( 17/4 ) = $25.5m (13% of the prior year’s gross rental income)
And if we extend out for the whole year, then the rental loss adds up to:
$6m x 52/4 = $78m (39% of the prior year’s gross rental income)
Now what percentage of Kiwi Property Group assets are in shopping mall assets again?
But none of that is material. Right? (It might be material for HLG though!)
SNOOPY