Thanks for the response Brain. Just for fun I put your 50% Sand apartments sold into the s/sheets. I fully understand your figure is just an impression and very rough. It is a little less than sales I had extrapolated from last known info given by OCA in September.
I have also applied this new, lower sales rate to their other building currently selling down ,Meadowbank stage 4.
The updated result from Brains guess is HY1 profit of 31M , apply a PE of 13.5 and the share price should be $1.38
I have been predicting, using the extrapolated sales rates from actual known sales back in September, the share price under the same conditions would be $1.50.
So lots of share price appreciation ahead either way.
These HY1 profit forcasts includes the care side profit of the business as being flat.
The problem with waiting for Macca to finish their exit, waiting for more "proof" the care costs are under control and waiting more years to financials to look back on is that the share price will have also adjusted upwards accordingly. I think ARV is a good example of this as far as share price growth and time taken to get market acceptance goes.
Its hard to imagine being able to buy OCA at $1.02 ever again. New share holders now have to pay an extra 15% to get on board.