Thankyou Hoop, very very interesting.
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Thankyou Hoop, very very interesting.
Hoop, given the charts are where they are, do you feel we are statistically likely to see a final push higher this year, a double top for instance, or do you feel is it all down hill from here ?
Hi Merc, would you mind sharing the name of the companies you recently bought into? Regards, Shambles
Remembering that I'm still in major learning curve mode and dipping a toe in rather than mortgaging the farm to the hilt (i.e. I could be wildly out) - PEB and CNU
Thank you Sparky. If wrong - we blame The Clown :)
Although, to be fair, both of these were on my, rather short, "Interest List" BEFORE coming to this forum
Snakk also appeared as a possible anomaly in the statistics. But although there is a highly entertaining thread, as I detest mobile phones (had one for years), suffer from "ad blindness" and take marketing people with a bag of salt it doesn't seem like a good match for me. I'm watching though and will be interested to see where it goes.
There's been much recent doom and gloom on this thread, perhaps rightfully so or perhaps we are presently in the midst of a correction, either way thought I would offer some balance.
Below are some links of reading interest in respect to the phase of the present secular bear cycle.
Many analysts believe that the present secular bear cycle is at or close to an end, and that we are at an inflection point of a forward secular bull cycle formation.
Will the secular bear take us down, or, are the markets at the cusp of a secular bull formation which could just go up from here ?
http://www.moneynews.com/Gary-Jakack...5/08/id/503353
http://www.marketfolly.com/2013/06/m...n-odds-of.html
Absolutley, if they are quality stocks presenting good value they will outperform over the long run, shouldn't loose sight of that. I take it that you've resisted any urge to totally cash up and hide in the wardrobe ?
Many, many years ago a lecturer told our class, "You can always tell the state of the economy by the number of cranes on the horizon." Over the years we have noticed this to be true. Times of boom the cranes are everywhere, times of gloom not a one to be seen.
It is the transitional times that cranes aren't the best indicator
Hi Mac.
I've read both articles...both say trust me I know what I'm doing (quote Sledgehammer (old TV series)......Gary Jakacky doesn't seem to grasp the secular theory concept as he runs off target with macro and micro events to justify the secular movement..instead of the theory itself..
Jeff Saut..seem to know little more about secular stuff...but he too has fallen short...with no analytical reasons either..could be he doesn't want to lose his readers with the complex stuf....He mentions there are others out there that believed the Secular Bear was killed off by the nasty cyclic grizzly bear.....These claims have been argued out over the last 2 years and was put to bed..It seems Jeff either don't follow it to its outcome or he is in denial due to the "won't say die" attitude of the DOW and S&P500 that seems to want go up forever....
Both obviously haven't considered the fact that secular bear characteristic flat tops trading ranges is it's behaviour but exemptions do occur e.g AORDS 2003 -2007 freakish bull run...(see here)
Secular bear killed off in AORDs???? was debated by Winner and I a few month back...we needed more time to get more results to be sure....
The Wall St secular bear is alive and well and is tracking slowly downwards from the 2007 Exurbant heights...Time is not the factor with Secular theory ..it is distance traveled for the annualised PE Ratio to reach it reversal points it could 3 years or 20+ years or anything in between
What everyone must remember including those two authors are
1.....Cyclic market reversals are measured by the Index (share) price trends
2.....Secular reversals are measured by the "annualised" PE Ratio trends...Price has nothing to do with it.. There are examples of a secular bear market starting up during a cyclic bull market
3.....Research has proved there is no difference in the growth of the economy (GDP GNP) during either Equities secular bull or Bear Market.
4.....Different secular investment strategies are needed....Buy and Hold (sailing) works the best during a secular bull markets but terrible during the secular bear where active cyclic buying and selling(rowing) is the best Strategy.....Pension/insurance/superfunds funds are negatively affected by secular bears
The ending of a secular bear occurs when the annualised PE Ratio falls to below 10 stays under 10 for a length of time (not a normal PE Ratio spike as happened in 2008/09) then the secular bear ends when the annualised PE Ratio breaks upward above 10
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...markets/page20
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...markets/page15
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...markets/page19
QE explained, and September looks likely for easing to kick in
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...95F05C20130616
Given the obvious waves in the markets every time easing is mentioned, logic would suggest that it isn't time to pull back until these waves become ripples. Surely easing while there's still panic in the markets suggests the timing isn't correct.
All this QE is just making the rich richer (from rising asset prices) but the real dilemma for the those rich is that, as the gap widens between them and the rest of humanity, the natural human craving for fairness and having a slice of the pie will have immense
The last time the world saw such such disparities between the hyper-rich and the average guy was at the beginning of the Great Depression.
There will be change .... not this week or next week but sometime ..... when QE stops. QE has been unsustainable and slowly turning it off is not the cure, it has just exaggerated the underlying problem