Posted this Dec 2021
Seems to have been the case.
WHERE DID ALL THE SYNERGIES GO?
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Good post Winner. We had a uni professor on sabbatical from the USA come teach us our 3rd year finance paper in the winter/spring of 1997 and he was a merger and acquisition specialist. I remember the term synergy being used a lot. All about Beta's and how merging 2 companies might affect that etc. Synergy seemed to be a good thing though.
I will see if I can read that book you recommend. Sounds very informative. I wonder if there is a psychological reason for synergies being over valued?
the big question indeed. when will revenue pick up again ? cost of living crisis not ending soon , rv sales are like jet ski sales and look at the massive debt levels on falling revenue :scared: no wonder going to the bank. have to agree with others downgrade possible again later this yr
During COVID the tourism industry rental fleets were sold down. Additionally, during covid many rental companies went into liquidation (or some merged) so the number of operators shrunk. Coming out of COVID there was a mad rush from tourists to jump in a campervan/motor home and have a post covid holiday. This meant there was a mad rush by the rental fleet owners to gear back up. The preferred cab chassis manufacturers like Mercedes couldnt keep up with demand so the likes of THL had to take some units from Iveco which are not as reliable as the Merc's or preferred by the rental customer.
THL issues today are only ex fleet sales not the rental side. How long will it take for the sales to recover? Will the rental side come in for some demand decline? I am not sure but that FY26 $100m npat has to be seriously questioned..
Getting a few in opening rush not good idea after all
Will need to average down and hope like hell it’ll come right
Updated that chart I posted earlier to reflect todays action
Seems they not on top of internal reporting / controls …..putting it kindly they don’t have fingers on the pulse or whatever the saying is.
Coincidence that CFO left a while ago and a guy came back from parental leave to look after things until new CFO starts in July?
Something wrong somewhere.
Trouchet sold a couple of million shares not that long
Maybe just as well heaps still in escrow (I think)
They always had the best excuses for profit downgrades.
Gosh... lucky sold out Breakeven couple months ago .. otherwise will be another dog sheet
Good grief - down just over 36% today !
that's brutal
Guidance down by a third and share price down by a third, now isn't that just good market efficiency. With interest rates staying quite elevated for the time being, I'd say people don't have the spare money for RV purchases or extra travel. Good stock to buy when interest rates start coming down, but for now the risk of another downgrade is quite possible since the real economic decline is really just seeping in now.
Another word for synergy could be concentration. I.e rather than diversifying revenue or risk you are doubling down.
Synergy can make sense but those synergy 'savings' need to be real.
Without knowing the full detail it appears to be more cyclical economic impact a bit like OCA.
At least there might be some cheap campers come up for sale.
ACC sold down just over 1.5%.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...707/418061.pdf
Edit - got that wrong they increased their holding......:sleep:
For this disclosure,—
(a) Total number held in class: 19,442,407
(b) Total in class: 218,224,409
(c) Total percentage held in class: 8.909%
For last disclosure,—
(a) Total number held in class: 16,017,538
(b) Total in class: 217,231,623
(c) Total percentage held in class: 7.373%
thl share price still heading down ..$1.73 now
That’s a PE of 7.5 on F24 guidance
Maybe starting to look attractive …..but then maybe more bad news to come out
Where did all the synergies go?
Oh no, this only leads to idiots blocking the ski field roads trying to drive tin cans on the ice.
Or, maybe that's me, then I can buy shares with my rental savings.
My kids would go, dad you idiot. And the wife would be beating me. But once I explain to them how I've invested the savings they will all calm down.
ANZ take a substantial stake at around $2.20 a share
421270.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com)
$2.20 was the sp in 2017.