Vodafone brand is dead anyway. See my previous posts about this.
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Comcast would effectively be getting Sky NZ for free when added to their business given Comcast’s P/E. They need more original content which sky may be able to generate if it heads in that direction. And they are in a better position to increase profit then sky is on its own.
Wow. Forsythe Barr actually had something positive to say about Sky.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...rs-on-nzx.html
“However, our analysts expect the risk to near term forecast earnings is net positive, with a positive bias signalled for ABA, AIA (slightly positive), AIR (slightly positive), FBU, FSF, NZX, SKL, SKT, SUM and THL (slightly positive).
The future for New Zealand telecommunication companies, ie Spark and Vodafone, is to follow the recent trend of American telecommunication companies and be more vertically and horizontally integrated and to also generate more exclusive content.
They don't just want to sell you access to data. They want to create and then sell the data, as there is a greater margin when doing this.
Interesting article (relevant to Sky) on how Foxtel has repositioned its business:
https://www.channelnews.com.au/foxte...ivers-content/
And how content aggregators (yes there is a future in this model) might make money from content providers such as Disney+ that offer their own streaming service: https://medium.com/wetek/content-agg...g-ddca6d49a337
There's a place for aggregation on TV given all the options in the world with what content people want to watch. I'm all in for aggregated content where you pay for the content you actually consume and want. Definitely a good model IMO - instead of having several subscriptions which is a juggle to manage.
Mind you a takeover would have to pay more than the 13.7 cents per share on the NZX. Who knows what the final price would have to be. May be too expensive.
You'd have to think 2x min from where it's sitting at the moment. It's mind blowing how undervalued this stock is.
It's easy to work this out.
The Infratil/Brooksfield takeover of Vodafone NZ was done at 7x EBITA.
Given that SKY has confirmed guidance for FY20 and also that analysts, such as the one from Forsyth Barr posted from the user above, suggest that Sky should benefit from Covid, then it's safe to assume that Sky's FY21 guidance is a reasonable figure to rely on.
Sky's FY21 midrange EBITA guidance is $115m (note that this number is 50% less than just 2 years ago). Factor in less CAPEX from the sale of OSB and it's very likely that this figure will be reached.
If we use a conservative 5x EBITA, then that puts the valuation of Sky at $575m or 32c per share. More than a 100% premium to today's closing price.
Will someone pay more than 13.7c? Dunno, you'd have to go down the line and ask the many different companies who might be interested in doing so, such as; Infratil, Brooksfield, Discovery, Comcast (UniverialNBC), AT&T (HBO), ViacomCBS, Telstra, Newscorp, Spark, Trilogy International Partners, Nine Entertainment plus potentially many others etc etc etc
Thanks for all the effort you're putting into this OGG.... really appreciate it. Comforting to see your simple calculations for a possible buyout putting the value at or around 32cps.
I'd be pretty chuffed with 25c TBH, but 32c will do very nicely thank you. Will be buying more tomorrow me thinks. GLTAH.
That’s a pretty reasonable analysis for today’s market. But kick the can down the road and into the middle of next year when we’ve got several Covid vaccines, sport is back to normal, Rugby Pass is making money, the share market is booming, and the Olympics are on and I think any takeover offer would be at the higher end of that ebitda.
Point being: at least double today. Or even more tomorrow. Or some sweet dividends and a higher sp if there’s not takeover. Woo hoo!
This is where me and other members, such as Mista disagree.
Waiting for the rebound, and then selling is risky. The media industry is highly volatile. Just look at the history of Mediaworks! Changes are happening fast in the industry (as they always have been) and it's very uncertain even 12 months from now.
It will likely require more capital and investment to compete with other international companies going forward. For example, Discovery have made moves into NZ with their recent acquisitions. Disney has pulled content from Sky and going direct. Sporting rights are getting more expensive with competition from Spark. There are huge headwinds!
Neon, although growing nicely and benefiting from Covid, will continue to require investment and more content. The margin is small so it's a long term game. Does Sky have what it takes to continue this investment long term? It's likely going to be 10 years+ for decent returns, and even then, likely longer. This game is best played by the big boys, ie Netflix, Amazon etc.
With the selling of OSB it appears that management have finally ceded and now see the best option for investors is to divest and sell off assets. The satellite business and brand will be sold next, ie the entire company.
It's just a question of how much can you sell it for. Will it be $1, like with Stuff.co.nz and OSB. Or will it be like Sky UK and end in a bidding war at 15x EBITA. It think it will be somewhere in between.
"Harvey Weinstein, I want you to go down to Noo Zealand, and check out that little TV company,
See what they are doing different to us"
But Sir, do I have to?"
"Yes, now hurry up, I've heard there are others sniffing around!"...
Dr JPG.
Half price vasectomies if booked before CUT OFF time.
When you're holding 1,337,751 @ .146 and the takeover comes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aqopEQr7wI
looks like you're ready to get a shot away..
Sky is an attractive takeover target today. But its not distressed like Stuff or MW so its unlikely to happen anytime soon in my opinion as it will be too expensive by comparison to other opportunities in today's market especially when companies are hoarding cash. (Note: I hope there is some kind of takeover offer soon as it will put sky in the news for the right reasons and highlight its value and push the sp up). Which leads me to believe that any takeover is more likely to happen once things return to normal. Therefore, I believe that a likely scenario is some kind of small rebound when things return to normal and the board (which have a responsibility to try and execute their future plans) will attempt to add some value by way of mobile / fibre reselling, or content creation, marketing to their database etc. But agree the media industry is being disrupted by the majors so anything could happen. Whatever the case, it makes for interesting watching.
It's a bit like the game "Deal or no Deal". I'd rather just take the cash then open another suitcase.
You can always buy Infratil shares after the takeover. Like I've said before on the forum. It's likely Vodafone and Sky will be relisted on the NZX 5 years from now at a huge premium. This would likely push up Infratil's shareprice considerably, similar to their Z Energy investment. You'd make better gains by doubling up here quickly on SKT and then putting the profits into IFT.
For any of you who are buying and holding Sky shares with the primary reason being that you expect a takeover, you may want to look at this job ad posted today:
https://www.seek.co.nz/job/50416286?...7-72e1061e9e59
No way would they be hiring for this role if a merger with Vodafone was imminent.
Even if another player (like Discovery) was in negotiations with Sky, I doubt they would move along with hiring a senior position for the broadband strategy until the takeover was sorted.
To me it looks like pretty compelling evidence that takeover/merger discussions are not underway. Of course, I could be wrong - DYOR.
lol... I'd like to point out that I found the link first and PMed it to Mista. :cool:
It's a bluff people! Notice how they don't have "A full role profile can be provided upon request" at the bottom of the ad like all their other ads. It's cause they're an't one as it's a ghost listing. Besides, when Vodafone and Sky merge, they're keeping the Sky branding, so they're gonna need a head of broadband to convert their ~500k satellite subscribers.
Did anyone notice the T V ads for the movies for 2 months @ $10/ month?
They did say they would do it next year, and they've already spent $5m on it.
https://www.broadbandcompare.co.nz/n...rket-next-year
Weather or not there's a takeover, broadband is getting rolled out and offered to Sky Subscribers one way or another. If Infratil do make a takeover, it will likely take them 2 years to merge the companies together fully. You're gonna need a "head of broadband" to start the process off first.
Also, another quote from the ad
"as we move towards becoming a telecommunications provider"
Watch out Spark :D
Fixed:
"as we move towards becoming Vodafone"
It will be next year by the time they interview, check references, negotiate, candidate gives notice, then relocates (I think they'd be lucky to find a suitable candidate who's interested to fill from the local market but you never know). Then they got to put the product offering together. They're not breaking any speed records is all I'm saying.
I'm not so sure it is a ghost listing, per here : https://www.broadbandcompare.co.nz/b...on=information
If the choice is a bluff or a real job, would Occam's razor suggest they are doing it...?
IMO given there are internet providers now offering uncapped plans to rural households, Sky may see this as a threat to (or an opportunity for?) it's rural satellite customer base. Whether this service is offered as a reseller of someone else's service, or as a genuine provider using technology and/or infrastructure already in place in Sky, remains to be seen. An interesting and smart move.
Edit: apologies but I see Ogg already posted a similar link....that's what happens when one is too slow in posting!
That's a good point and yes it is a smart move to offer broadband to rural satellite customers to keep them signed up and to replace some of the lost revenue if the customer switches to Neon. I'm sure that Ogg knows that public companies can't place bluff recruitment ads, but you've got to love his theories.
Someone's put a rather large parcel of shares (appox 7m) up for sale this afternoon on the asx @ 0.185c aud
Attachment 11862
Yeah - my bad with the timing of that post.....I was a bit slow.
I believe this is actually a double play in that a) they retain customers and b) they remove costs. As unlikely as this seems, the more valuable play might be the removal of costs - here is something I can talk about from experience....
Trying to deliver content online gets *really really* expensive very fast if you aren't careful. Expensive to the point where margins are either wafer thin once everyone takes their slice (studios included) or are non-existent. Given there are a number of factors with online content all heading in the same direction (i.e. upwards) being:
- the number programmes on offer
- the duration of programmes
- the number of viewers
- the increasing quality of transmission, and
- increasing frequency of use per viewer
then the volume of data transmitted follows a geometric curve over time. Try and guess the basis on which CDN's charge? You guessed it.....data served. Sky has a few choices which are:
- Use an Australian CDN with it's inherent issues of transmission across the Tasman (would you believe their USP is they have no earthquakes!?)
- Or get real and use the largest international CDN (i.e. Akamai) with it's nodes up and down NZ, BUT the costs follow a geometric curve which eats into profit growth
- Or invest in the technology locally via investment in bandwidth and peering relationships and they eliminate a HUGE % of costs from options a and b.
The CDN's use FUD to sell their service. So if you can't buy an ISP the next best option is to set one up. This is why I say it is a smart move given I reckon this is about more than hanging onto customers. They recognise Satellite is at the sunset/cash cow stage and they want to pivot into online. It's a smart move, assuming they can execute well and do not get cold feet. The upsell is that if they do this well, then they become the local CDN for other content aggregators/resellers.
Also - another point which I have been reading about is "content creation". Again, from experience, this is also *really really* expensive and IMO won't be considered a core activity for Sky (beyond Sport). Even if they did it, it would be chump change (and likely a loss maker) compared to offering Broadband and setting up a CDN.
I hold SKT.
I love all the ideas about IFT/Vodafone might buy over SKT. :)
What about the idea of 2 Degrees might buy over SKT? This a free market & Comcom might see it a fairer deal to have 2 Degrees takeover SKT to create equal telco market shares between Vodafone & Spark in NZ. :)
Pushed out the AGM as far as they can i see...
Wouldn't want those pesky Sharetrader punters asking pertinent questions would we...
A year in, how is that US$40M purchase of RugbyPass going.!?
Current depth:
https://i.imgur.com/UCls9RM.jpg
History of trades:
https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/skt.nzx/
We got a rock: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTwAoFR4DuM
1m buy at 13.7 on the NZX now. Likely the same clowns who are selling at 18.5 on the ASX.
Infratil annual meeting today.
Can someone ask what the hell are they gonna do with all their money when interest rates go negative next year?
OMG another 1m at 13.8... UBS pump and dump for sure.
1.2mil shares @ 13.7 bid, and
1.1mil shares @ 13.8
Hang tight guys, the rocket is about to be launched, bring a jacket, it's gonna be cold at the moon! :D :D :D
When the stock finally goes up after so long...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MCRQuqLl48
The orders are gone. I think you were right about quote stuffing. https://ibb.co/bbgZfw7
Christ it is 'booming' today.
For every 0.1c the price increases I 'make' $1600. So I am $4800 richer than I was last night!
Better let the missus know she can upsize our maccas combos tonight eh! AHHH HUHUHUHUHUHU!
Have you convinced Blackcap to ask Marko at the AGM today when he plans to launch his Sky takeover, Ogg?
Who needs a takeover when we're a telecommunication company now, right? :D
Spark at $9b.
Sky at $250m
Sky investors asking for more market cap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ex2r86G0sdc
Infratil AGM starting soon.
https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/ift20
Me right now...
https://i.imgur.com/BMNaI5x.jpg
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12358227
$29.99! That is a tenner cheaper than what Sky usually charges.
This is exactly why we need to become a telco ASAP - so we can offer cheaper bundles and PPV offerings to our broadband customers and still make money.
We all wish they moved sooner/faster after the Vodafone merger was nixed - let's hope we get more insight into what has been happening at the AGM and these guys get cracking.
I am a boxing fan - will watch this fight on Spark Sport for sure.
What a boring AGM.
The only thing I took away is that Vodafone is heading in the same direction as Spark.
Then Mista posts that Spark is going into pay per view.
Just lol
I listened to the IFT Q&A...certainly nothing was said that indicated/implied they are sniffing around SKT.
In fact, Marko pointed out that Spark and Vodafone are following broadly similar strategies...except for marginal value add activities like entertainment content and live sport.
It certainly didn't sound like Marko was keen to get into the content business directly (it sounded to me like he is happy to keep the current commercial relationship with Sky for Vodafone TV, but that is as far as it goes).
Honestly mate, after listening to all these dry balls old white men yibber yabbing in the IFT AGM...there is no way in Hell they are getting into anything exciting like the content wars.
Though your argument for why they might buy Sky given the low market cap, and ability to merge with Vodafone etc etc has merit...
I reckon they may have looked at it briefly and decided that their wholesale arrangement with Sky is sufficient. They get all of the great content Sky can secure without the headache. They may not see the long term value of owning an asset like Sky being significantly more than the current arrangement.
Obviously Sky competing in broadband and mobile is not going to be great for Vodafone (and the rest) - but I don't think the prospect of Sky Broadband is causing Marko to lose any sleep either.
Just face it Mista. Take over is coming. Even Marko said that the capital raise was to "support" their existing businesses.
There's a massive war going on between Vodafone and Spark.
Spark have the cricket and are now going into pay per view.
If Vodafone don't respond they're gonna get left behind.
Not only that, Sky is going into broadband. Just lol.
Takeover is happening. Face reality.
Everyone go make a complaint about how Spark is behaving...
https://comcom.govt.nz/make-a-complaint/complaint-form
Plan A for both companies was the merger. That failed.
Rather than appeal the decision they decided to do the current commercial relationship - it was the next best thing.
There is a big difference here - last time Vodafone did not have a comprehensive commercial arrangement for sky’s content. Now that they do, going through the whole ‘let’s attempt to merge...again...” may hold much less appeal.
The benefit may not stack up against the costs.
I am not saying that a takeover is not possible - I make no predictions in this space.
But I think it is also a bit ogg (I mean odd) to keep banging on like it is a ‘certainty’ when there is no real evidence to support that claim.
Can we finish above the 30MA today? Can we break the 0.14c resistance? If we can we might go up to 16c till we hit resistance again.
Infratil announce buy back...there goes a chunk of their cash.
20,000,000 shares
2.77% of their stock
Roughly $100,000,000
3.45mil saved on dividends.
Suppose it makes sense.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358383
https://apple.news/AfqXgj8XMSoejwGE2brlQ4A
An analysts view of Comcast which own cable in the US and Sky Europe. My guess is heÂ’d probably have a similar view of Sky NZ if he weÂ’re to take a look.
Morningstar analyst Michael Hodel offered Comcast praise last week.
This year "is far from a normal year and seasonal swings have likely steadily diminished with the rise of online content options," he wrote in a report.
But "the sequential improvement amid the worst of the pandemic and sports shutdown provides some evidence supporting our view that the industry isnÂ’t headed for a customer death spiral, a key element of our fair-value estimates and moat ratings across much of the media sector, including Â… Comcast."
Price to book (from memory):
Comcast: 2.3
Sky Tv NZ 0.6
*similar but comcast have telco, NBCU and other media businesses so not entirely apples to apples
Gotta love these glassdoor reviews. :laugh:
https://www.glassdoor.co.nz/Reviews/...iews-E7568.htm
https://www.glassdoor.co.nz/Reviews/...IM1178_IP2.htm
Sky TV
29 June 2020
Pros
Good place to work. Friendly atmosphere.
Cons
Management to know the vision of the company
10 May 2020
Pros
Fun place to work, good co-workers, dynamic industry
Cons
Getting disrupted and restructuring to cope
29 March 2020
Pros
Great people to work with
Cons
Blind and ignorant leadership lacking in diversity or skill to invoke change
20 February 2020
Pros
Fun industry, good camaraderie, lots of exciting initiatives in play
Cons
Facing significant disruption so under pressure
25 November 2019
Pros
flexible, big company, flexible, flexible, flexible
Cons
too many people work there, hard to push new change.
Vodafone
28 July 2020
Pros
Great employee benefits, diverse workplace
Cons
The company goes through frequent restructures
20 July 2020
Pros
Great colleagues good work life
Cons
Bad job security and layoffs
26 May 2020
Pros
Excellent people culture and working environment
Cons
Frequent restructuring that causes lack in confidence among staff.
11 May 2020
Pros
Awesome place to work at
Cons
Uncertainities in telco sector nowadays
16 April 2020
Pros
great environment, fun place to work at
Cons
management is quite stuck up
30 March 2020
Pros
Great Employee benefits Big office get to meet some great people
Cons
Unrealistic expectations from the management. Company says they are "agile" but only on paper. Very old system and IT. No forward thinking or planning for the future. Lack of strategy
23 March 2020
Pros
Big company, get to meet many people
Cons
management decisions are too poor.
9 March 2020
Pros
Some of the people are passionate. Agile-ish
Cons
Legacy KPIs. Removing bonus since going private
6 February 2020
Pros
People, people, people
Cons
Complexity of the legacy systems
27 January 2020
Pros
Great leadership and people, good culture, agile and fun to work.
Cons
lots of movement in the organisational structure.
10 November 2019
Pros
Great people; generous resources; inclusive.
Cons
Political; Slow; Averse to hearing feedback if negative.
20 October 2019
Pros
Free phone and plan,
Cons
Too busy ticking boxes and moving on to the next big thing without delivering
Working at Vodafone/Sky...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fk2YRpLnmdU
The key themes experienced by past employees of both companies:
Layoffs/restructure/change/disruption
Time for these two dinosaurs to mate and make a baby.
Interesting thread on reddit...
https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/...ibe_to_sky_tv/
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertain...ectid=12358295
LOL.
Hmmmn, so a linear TV model is not completely outdated then? Netflix should be able to tailor the content to the user based on their viewing history which is different to Sky, but still an interesting development.
Sometimes it is nice to turn the TV on and have a content curator just decide for you :D
There are two other psychological things missing for it to work:
1) Other people have to be watching the same content at the same time.
2) There has to be a genuine feeling of not being in control.
What Nextfix has done is just a shuffle button. Which in itself is just another choice to make as you have to decided weather to turn it on or not. You're in full control.
People are more satisfied when their options are limited or non existent and there's a higher power making choices for them. They're also more satisfied when they see others doing the exact same. It's counter intuitive but true.
The best outcome is having no choice 80% of the time, then giving someone a choice for the remaining 20%.