Still no drilling at Momoho!! wtf?
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Still no drilling at Momoho!! wtf?
okay - here I come.
10k capital
I want to invest 30% of my capital in NZO please in very simple terms explain should I buy options or heads?
I plan to also invest 20% into PRC and will hold 50% cash.
Sorry for such a basic question but for all my reading I still cant work it out for myself.
Kupe Info
NZO
05/06/2008
MINE
REL: 0944 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
MINE: NZO: Kupe Development Wells Drilling and Testing Summary
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that the drilling and testing of the
three Kupe Development Wells in permit PML 38146 has been successfully
completed.
The three wells have been safely suspended pending the start-up of the Kupe
Gas Project by the middle of 2009.
Preliminary analysis of the well results, and in particular the well testing,
confirms that the wells and the reservoir have met expectations.
A composite summary of the well test results is as follows. Please note that
there is a change to the data previously released for Kupe South 6 (KS-6) as
not all correction factors had been applied to the condensate flow rate at
that time:
Key:
Well
Top Depth (m)
Bottom Depth (m)
Sustained Gas Rate(MMSCF/D)
Sustained Condensate Rate (STB/D)
Choke Size (1/64")
Surface Flowing pressure (psig)
Fluids Recovered
KS-8 3,513 3,575 33 3,840 64 2,100 Gas & Condensate
KS-6 3,014 3,106 41 5,130 56 3,030 Gas & Condensate
KS-7 3,188 3,280 42 6,393 56 3,051 Gas & Condensate
*Depths are MDRT (measured depth below rotary table).
Drilling of the three development wells began on 19 December 2007. All three
wells reached their target depths.
Well 22 inch 17 inch 12-1/4 inch 8-1/2 inch 6-1/8 inch
KS-6 560m 2,000m 2,895m 3,385m
KS-7 566m 2,000m 3,116m 3,454m
KS-7 ST1 3,503m
KS-8 568m 2,184m 3,429m 3,834m
*Depths are cumulative and show total well depth.
The ENSCO 107 drilling rig has now been secured for moving to the Momoho
exploration well location and will do so as soon as a weather window is
available. Momoho is approximately 6km southeast of the Kupe central field.
The Kupe Project is located within permit PML38146 in the offshore Taranaki
Basin, New Zealand, approximately 30km off the coast. The development
comprises production wells tied into an unmanned offshore platform, a 30 km
pipeline to shore, and an onshore processing station.
Participants in the Kupe Gas Project are:
Origin Energy Limited (through its subsidiary Origin
Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited)
50% (Operator)
Genesis Energy (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
31%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
15%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd
4%
End CA:00165635 For:NZO Type:MINE Time:2008-06-05:09:44:53
Surely thats got to help the cause...
Just look at the lineup of large buyers for the options this morning!
You have left out pertenant info but going by what you are saying then you have no choice but to buy heads. Since you are looking at the term "investing" this means you should be looking at something not so risky. If you want to gamble then thats something else. In short, if you buy the options you have not enough left of you 5k to convert.
Thanks Nita and Bermuda
Nita - what did I leave out?
But agreed looks simpler just to buy the heads. Im going in - hope I dont have the cujo effect:)
W
"Wells and reservoirs have met expectations".
Surely that should help to reinforce confidence. It does for me anyhow, and I will convert even more of my options.
And look at the PRC price - should power through $2 very soon now.
Have procrastinated about buying a few NZO for a couple of weeks now. This sell-off in oil the last few days has given me a "get out of jail card" so to speak as I thought NZO sub 160 days might have been over. Anyway just jumped in and bought 50,000 NZOOD at 5c. Will convert in a few weeks and sit back and enjoy the ride.
am referring to the fact that you have 10k to invest. You said you plan to invest 30% into nzo. this would mean at approx 5 cps to invest (if you chose the options your 30% or $3,000 you could acquire 60,000 of them. If you dont sell them in the next 3 weeks you will need to convert them costing you $90,000 (this figure im not sure if you were prepared to fork out addition capital).
Hope that explains it better
The total number of shares will be approxiamately the same after 30th june as the number of options and shares are now-possibly slightly less.
There is selling pressure on the options as a lot of holders havnt the cash to convert-this drags down the price of heads . IMHO the head price will be over $2 by the end july.
Better to buy the options now-at 5 to 6 cents and convert on 30th june .
The options are more likekly to increase by 5 cents in the next week than decrease by 5 cents so this is the time to buy
World-famous trader George Soros sent shivers through the market, after he commented that recent record oil prices are the result of a bubble caused by rumour-driven speculators.
Just checkout the prvious last 3 years hype and euphoria rises.
The chart shows a head'n shoulders pattern and or a failed pennant.
Has also broken through the 30 day MA and RSI heading south tgether with MACD (not shown)
My pick is a pullback at least to the prev resistance of $1.35, that will form new support. I would not be buying till it formed a V bottom with a cofirmed trend rise, and RSI bouncing off the 20 mark!
Just checkout the down trend of the US light crude charts.
Both moving averages are sloping to the downside, and it is making lower highs and lower lows.
Take care the Bear
Just for intrest
I would agree with the charts being bearish, also OBV has been giving off divergences for a while now. However I'm willing to wait for momoho to be drilled and the oppies to expire. My entry in the competition is probably dead in the water.
[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;203386][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;202999][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;202415][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;201047]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,
I would think that the Auckland convention entries [THE FIRST EIGHT] that Mattyroo is in front coming into the straight with his $1-58 pipping Macdunk at $1-59. C-MON the blue eyed brigade talk the price up i want to win. Macdunk
Unwarranted scaremongering again Bear .It is ludicrous to use your charts to predict nzo shareprice which will be driven in the long-term by fundamentals .
It is interesting that the nz dollar conversion rate for the price of Tapis has only dropped minimally because of the fall in the nz/us dollar exchange rate
A barrel of tapis =us $128.14 @ 76.5 cents convesion rate=$168 nz or close to a million dollars a day to nzo and about $800,000 a day net profit !.
When the next quarterly figures are released to the market in july expect nzo to leap to over $2.
In the meantime expect the oil price to be volatile but dont make a big deal out of insignificant drops
Shareprice and trading is undoubtedly been affected by the pending option exercise date. This would obviously affect any graphs. No doubt will probably be taken to task by Phraedrus!!
However always good to get a alternative viewpoint - there are plenty of people pumping NZO presently.
Look's like my estimate of end june NZO shareprice ($3.00) is slightly on the high side. Please change my pick to $2.95 macdunk :)
Of course your pick will be right!
PS Are you the same guy who bagged PRC and said consider buying once coal was being produced?
From NZX release this afternoon: seems all those USD$$$ that NZO and PRC are/will be earning just became worth a bit more, like 1.7% more.
June 05 - Close: The New Zealand dollar tumbled to a three-week low and debt rallied strongly on Thursday as the central bank opened the door to interest rate cuts by the end of the year....
The kiwi shed half a cent immediately after the statement and continued to fall, finally settling more than 1.7 percent lower....
At 0500 GMT the kiwi was at $0.7653/63 compared with $0.7799/01 in late local trade on Wednesday.
oiler, have a look out the window and see if the Esnco 107 rig has shifted will you.
from energyreview website the headlines show today was the shifting day.
Origin to spud Momoho wildcat
(Thursday, 5 June 2008)
KUPE operator Origin Energy has suspended the three successful Kupe development wells offshore Taranaki and will today move the jack-up Ensco 107 rig to drill the nearby Momoho-1 wildcat.
Full Story...
regards
M
How about a webcam out of Oilers window?
great idea - can it also look at the nz/au exchange rate as cost of coversion the options just dropped to under au$1.21 today, thanks to indication of nz$ impending drop in interest rates.
Be great if rates dropped before end of June - may only have to pay au$1.18 to convert
M
Evening folks
Why is there advice in this fine forum to purchase the head shares when they can be purchased via the options for several cents less and dont have to be paid for several weeks?
An I missing something here?
Welcome to Sharetrader Da Puntzda.
I think you probably picked this up specific to Whirley, where he may have been looking to put 2-3k into NZO. For a relatively small quantity, it is probably just as easy to buy heads, and as Bermuda said, sit back and relax.
It depends if you are going to exercise the options or have the money to do it. Or try to trade them.....
But for someone in Whirly's situation, the diffference is currently 2.5c = maximum of about $50. Probably a safer way than trying to get in at the lowest possible level.
Me, mostly have options who is likely to buy some more in the next week, to exercise in a months time.
Cheers Sideshow Bob,
good to get the first post under the belt, and it will be intersting to see if the discount widens as the options get closer to expiring.
Yeah I think thats how the advice was intended and I reckon pretty sound advice too.
Thanks
Whirly
Alright so in terms of buying the options....what is the process for converting them when you purchase them say through ASB Securities online?
I don't want to get to 30 june and not have exercised :confused:
Copy of form you can print off from NZO website.
http://www.nzog.net/investorsSection/2008%20Options
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited
NZ Reg. Coy. No.WN 037 842 ARBN 003 064 962
E-mail: enquiries@nzog.net
Website: www.nzo.co.nz
Level 20, 125 The Terrace
PO Box 10725
Wellington, New Zealand
Telephone: +64 4 495 2424
Facsimile: +64 4 495 2422
C:\Documents and Settings\Brian\My Documents\NZOG 2008 OPTIONS\NZOG EXERCISING 2008 OPTION.doc
EXERCISING 2008 OPTIONS
To convert options into ordinary shares in New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited the
options can be exercised any time before 30 June 2008 by the payment of NZ$1.50
for each option being converted. Cheques or bank drafts should be payable to “New
Zealand Oil & Gas Limited”, crossed “non-transferable”, and be in New Zealand
currency.
The exercising of options can be undertaken by printing this form of Notice of
Exercise of Options, adding your option holder details, and sending the form together
with your cheque or bank draft to the appropriate share registry.
If you have any questions please email enquiries@nzog.com
NOTICE OF EXERCISE OF OPTIONS
NAME______________________________________________ ___
ADDRESS___________________________________________ __
_____________________________________________
HOLDER NUMBER____________________________
NUMBER OF OPTIONS________________________
NOTE: All of the above information should be as it appears on your most recent Transaction Statement.
I wish to exercise my 2008 options and convert them to ordinary shares.
Enclosed is my cheque or bank draft made payable to New Zealand Oil & Gas
Limited for NZ$___________________ being NZ$1.50 per option held.
SIGNATURE_______________________________________
NOTE: When you have completed this form mail it, together with your cheque,
if your options are registered on the Australian share register – to
Computershare Investor Services Pty Limited; GPO Box 7045, Sydney, NSW 2001, Australia
if your options are registered on the New Zealand share register – to
Computershare Investor Services Limited; Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
Postive Signs:
PRC going up
US Exchange rate down
Oil Up
Dow up 1.75%
Negative Signs
Its Friday
Todays Prediction based on technical analysis:
Going Up.
Disclosure:
I am not a financial adviser. Technical analysis based on coin tosses is as good as any other I can come up with. 4 heads in a row is a positive indicator.... of sorts..
You dont have to be a tosser to understand what is about to happen leading up to conversion. There will be lots of selling pressure on the options and the heads, with the average Joe Blow scratching about to find that extra money to convert. I being of sound mind sold mine right at the start for 9c much to the amusement of the blue eyed brigade. I valued the options at 5c taking into account the risk involved, as you are finding out at conversion with people being forced to sell either the heads or the options to raise the cash required. The share price after conversion will be diluted by all those extra mouths to feed, coming in at $1-50 into a company that otherwise would have had a much higher share price.
The only reason i see for the extra money rolling in, which was not required is that the company will now have a longer period for the management to swill at the trough. They have been very good at that in the past, cant see it changing, its something to keep close watch on. Just incase you wondered what i did with my option 9c i doubled it twice plus got an 11% exchange rate gain on it where it now sits safely in the bank waiting to buy road kill. Macdunk
McD despite our concerns most comments i heard about the stunning day on the markets earlier this morning is that a further serious downturn is much less likely over the next couple of months. Oil back up USD5 and the market shrugging it off! Time to dump your bear suit and put on your crash helmet. If you don't buy NZO/NZOOD/PRC the rest of the world will have already bought them.
That sharemarket participant who has maintained his blocking stake on the sell side of NZO while sweeping up the Options should be made known (and his actions made visible) to the investing public - not just the secret society - the NZX and its brokers. Instead Condoned manipulation.
Unfortunately Bollard missed a golden opportunity for NZ to reclaim their sharemarket (if he had of reduced interest rates yesterday). In Gods lucky country we are indeed unfortunate to have been saddled with these incompetents (the Miser and the Wharf post) for the last 9 years.
Bilo Quote..."That sharemarket participant who has maintained his blocking stake on the sell side of NZO while sweeping up the Options should be made known (and his actions made visible) to the investing public - not just the secret society - the NZX and its brokers. Instead Condoned manipulation."
I'm glad you criticised Labour Government to balance your left wing comment/argument.
God forbid more regulations especially into a free trading market such as a stock exchange...
It is a part of human behaviour which over the last several hundred years theories have evolved around i.e Dow Theory, investor behaviour principles and trading behaviour techniques called TA nowadays
If investors use these basic foundations of knowledge and techniques and apply them to their investment activity there would be not need to cry foul...use your basic knowledge to take the advantage of the situation.
Expect all sorts of shenanigans between now and the 27th
One of the reasons I sold NZO to Trichia and used his money to buy PPP :D
Accident Compensation Corporation has declared a 5.5% interest. Still accumulating?
ACC has just disclosed it has become a substantial holder with a 5.49% holding in NZO - a good sign :)
Look who's back on board... Stocking up on options too.
NZO
06/06/2008
SSH
REL: 1034 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
SSH: NZO: Disclosure of beginning to have substantial holding
Disclosure of beginning to have substantial holding
Section 22, Securities Markets Act 1988
To NZX
And New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
Date this disclosure made: 06/06/2008
Substantial security holder(s) giving disclosure
Name(s): Accident Compensation Corporation
Contact details: Nicholas Bagnall ; +64 4 918 7751 ;
Nicholas.bagnall@acc.co.nz
Date on which substantial security holder(s) began to have substantial
holding: 05/06/2008
Summary of substantial holding to which disclosure relates
Class of listed voting securities: NZ Oil & Gas Options
Summary for Accident Compensation Corporation
For this disclosure,--
(a) total number held in class: 7,605,081
(b) total in class: 138,461,322
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.49%
ACC took their time... should have accumulated with the rest of us when back in January at a $1.00 we all knew it was grossly undervalued...all except the big institutions it seemed.
That's probably why I am paying obscene annual fees to ACC:mad:
Anyway its positive news for shareholders:). It will help underpin the shareprice, and give investors more confidence in NZO.
thought a substantial holding in options did not have to be declared.
still good to see they are there and one would expect will convert same
M
ACC at least should be one holder not under pressure for $ to convert.
Is NZCSD an ACC only holding vehicle, or does it include others?
Maybe they need to declare the holding as they already have almost 14% of the heads. Whats the dilution on that holding if all options convert..
ACC were in at 90c to 100 & took profits at 1.20 or so 6 months or so ago. Will they be in for the long haul this time! Pity we can't find out what they are thinking?
Hi, I hopped on a few days ago with a parcel of options. I was around for the conversion of the nogoc's, I had a play then too. As it turned it out, I played wrong and took a minor loss, in hindsight, I didn't need to. I like to think I'm a little better prepared this time round, a few more years of paying attention and the safety net of conversion $ in the bank.
I think I've noticed something that I've found interesting. I'm having trouble finding detailed history but if my memory serves me well, I think the nogoc's behaved much like the nzood's have been. Similar time-line price action so far. I think I recall the nogoc's taking a big dive at the beginning of the month of conversion too, followed by a steady climb.
The fundamentals and future prospects are looking a lot different this time round, many circumstances are different, so this is largely crystal ball gazing. I find my perceived connection interesting all the same.
Hi boxburger and welcome to the show.
Your memory is right in the path taken but wrong in the timing. The oc took a big hit with 3 months to go and steadly increased in the last 6 weeks.This time the biggest difference is still not factored in and that is that this is the last chance for the big cheap topup. After this it is go without or buy on market.The chances of a further placement or cash issue or more options in the next few years is virtually nil.
The options will make a big upward movement next week as this slowly evolves itself,and with the removel of sellers who had no cash to convert.Then stand by for NZO to recatch up with PRC after 1 july.
The Taranaki Daily News reports today re Mohomo that "Weather permitting,
the rig was expected to start moving last night, and spud the well during the weekend."
Can somebody in NP look out the window and confirm if it has moved, please? Thx
Nearly 1 million Ords thru today. Could someone put up a graph of volume against price over the last 2 weeks?
could someone also explain why...if PRC is shooting ahead ...and NZO has a sizeable stake of them...why isnt NZO slowely rising........dont understand this share game sometimes
I have to admit to a little "conservative" valuation back then. Although I didn't want to upset Unicorn or McD by suggesting PRC was worth more than the market valued it at....
The little hint was pretty good - "NZO's biggest asset" now the market says PRC is worth $533M - NZO's share approaching $180M. this time next year and PRC might have overtaken the other two..unless Momoho comes in...:D]
Maybe CASH will be their biggest asset LOL!
Have always wondered whether this would be a GPG target.
I don't know what GPG spent their war chest of cash on...maybe poured some into Coates and then there is their increase in Tower holding. Perhaps they have nothing left.
But with the amount of cash this is generating and the PRC holding...it must be tempting for someone to buy a lot of options and convert to a substantial holding, get on the board and start playing with the lollies.
Quote: -
Posted by Unicorn on 20-04-08 p206 #3082
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...=5112&page=206
He valued Tui 84 cps and cash 21 cps
Quote: -
Posted by Bilo on 07-05-08 p238 #3568
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...=5112&page=238
He valued Tui 400M, Cash and prospects 70M
***********
Unicorn and Bilo,
I have a small question on your both calcs on Tui’s value.
As we know that Tui has been produced about 30% (based on the latest 2P oil reserves 41.7M), those 30% production has become cash.
My question is: - Do we need to do a small adjustment on the calculations or you have done that?
Cheers
Bixbite
.
Malcolm,
PRC at $2.50 is too cheep ....... it would be a steel.
Once in full production, and if coking coal prices hold up, then I'm picking north of $4.00 !!
Z
Bilo...Don't bag Unicorn. His valuations are very factual, based off a set assumptions which he states. Conversely, yours appear to be biased and unjustified.
$400million for Tui? Thats not factual (not fact yet)
$400million for Kupe? Neither is that (think of its high cost..NZO share of costs potentially over $200m)
$180million for PRC? Yes, your getting it.
They will be sitting on a pile of cash though, your right.
I suggest you check out some brokerage reports and see how they do their discounted valuations. They dont make absurd assumptions, as the market as whole does not make absurd assumptions.
A reasonable valuation is around the $2.00 mark which most research reports show, and thats fully diluted.
Its ok to believe that oil price will increase, but just dont show it in your calculations to what you think the company is 'worth.'
Otherwise you could 'speculate' with every stock on the exchange in the same way. Try your valuation technique with most producing oilers and I'm sure you will want to buy most of them....
You dont have to be a tosser etc
Duncan - you sold your options long ago at 9c they went on to 30c so you weren't that clever were you? It very convenient to compare your 9c to todays price but then again thats always been your style - Harry Hindsight.
upside_umop
NZ brokers seem to have difficulty valuing nzo-It would be good if you could post a valuation that is current -ie takes account of prc doubling in value,tui producing 3 times that predicted and using a current oil price ,and the recent flow testing of kupe-which is obviously going to be much bigger than expected even 2 weeks ago .
Brokers discount for risk-Personally I see risk for nzo balanced by the insurance value of owning a diversified energy stock .
Look forward to analysing any valuation you post .
In the meantime I feel Bilo,s valuation is more reflective of todays value-and hopefully(probably) in a month it will be shown to be conservative when we have updated figures for tui and kupe-and maybe even momoho
Yes, an adjustment is needed. It is not very significant, as less than a couple of months have elapsed.
I used a figure of $105 for oil, so any oil sold above that means cash increases by more than the amount the calculated Tui value declines by. I chose $105 because I think that the market should accept at least that much at present
Since my last calculation April, the PRC holding value has increased by 23c, the longer FSPO term and increased recoverable oil adds about 5c from memory, and the better than expected prices/production from Tui over the last couple of months about 3c. So the $1.85 should have increased to about $2.16 now - dilution drops that to $1.95.
But when the market is awash with options, and the company is on record as saying some of those options will be valueless, valuations become meaningless. It has been an incredibly negative month for NZO, especially when you consider the discount already factored in, the stellar performance of PRC, the amazing results from Tui, and the continuing high price of oil (especially in $NZ terms).
Having caused such a huge discount to the share price with the NZOODs, and given away about 10% of shareholder value through dilution, it must be hoped that the company has a very good plan for the money. I would expect to see a significant announcement during July/August.
TIM still following me about snapping at my heels. Its not so clever to follow the price down giving it all back to the market the way you are doing it. Your $1-89 in the competition looks like you are not very smart in that dept either. Hindesight becomes the yardstick to know if you have anything up top or not. I would think the options now look as if they will only just be in the money my $1-59 is to high as well. Macdunk
Is anyone else 'over' the options? So much talk, so much hype, I now just want to see what happens to the shareprice (after I've exercised my options of course!).
I actually picked $1.63 (that you allocated me) and then you found a duplicate of that selection (and deleted me without advising me) so I had to pick the next available number a few weeks latter.
Do NZO holders want the options converted??
I don't hold NZOOD anymore, and find myself in two minds as to whether I want to see the options converted (my pick in Dunc's comp of $1.50 would suit me)...
Thoughts from those only holding the heads....
Why would $1.50 suit you if you are a holder lots more would be better, whats the dam prize on offer anyway?!
Thats not quite correct. Shareholders were given 1 for every 2 shares. The sp also adjusted accordingly so is was a simple rob peter to pay paul scenario.
I havent even looked at the trading today but have read the comments on this thread. What i am surprised at is how there seems to be some confusion about the lack of performance with nzo sp considering the announcments and what is happening with prc. If you have a good think about it this is what is facing nzo and option holders. The following are my assumption only but imo but is quite logical.
- if all option holders converted they would need to stump up $200m
-At least 95% (this is the crux of it) of option holders would have to sell part or all of their options from May 1st to the end of June.
-Selling pressure is huge and big investors know it.. some bigger fish are mopping up on the desperate sellers.
There are other factors and the ones who can hold on without selling will come out smelling very well by the end of July irrespective if momoho is a dud (which is unlikely imo).
The tidal current is extremely strong but fundamentals is holding by big players at the current sp. once conversion is over the brakes will be lifted and i expect the turbo to kick in like we havent seen b4 in nzo.
I have just had a look at some of the trading especially with prc. Here is a simple analogy to understand how much pressure there has been on the options and also on nzo heads since May 1st. Also the positve impact.
- nzo option reminder in the mail (waking people up to the reality that they need to stump up with cash or sell some assets, options or otherwise).
- FPSO chartr extension
- tui to be reassed again (upward)
- kupe testing is meeting expectations
- PRC increased 60 cps since May 1st, couple with very steady progress. I estimate its worth an extra 12 - 15 cps to nzo subject to how many options are converted.
- very good investor presentation.
Since the sp has gone nowhere in 5 weeks i trust that investors now understand the extent of the selling pressure.
I am willing to take 1 or 2 bets on the following.
nzo will be at least $1.70 by end of July
$2.00 by end of Sept.
Not sure if this is legal but any one wanting a friendly bet up to $100 on each bet then i am a taker.
discl. will convert my options irrespective of the sp come closing date.
if the ensco 107 rig has not relocated by now, then unlikely for quite a few more days, given weather forecast coming up from the south. extra care has to be taken to jack up the legs as located right next to the kupe platform
loosing that string during final drill of ks8 cost 2 weeks - can't wind backtheclock, just have to go with the flow.
M
Malcolm and Oiler are up early today.
Exciting last week.
Oil sets a new one day growth in price per barrel record -
DOW down 300+ points biggest fall since 5 Feb ...
Source
CNBC today...
We have to be careful what we wish for. The volatity and spikes are very bad for the economy. I really hope that oil could settle in the low 100's. Most economies will be stuffed if commodities keep up this rate. What i happening last night is totally driven by speculators which are going to cripple most economies. Very bad imo
Hj Nita,
Dont believe the speculator bs. You are getting sidetracked.
The reason oil goes higher is because it is a precious finite resource and the tankers in the atlantic are being 'rerouted' to the growing asian market.
The war talk doesnt help either.
I agree oil at $100 would be nice but we will need a real big deprression to get back there. So we have to learn to use less (to make up for the increasing asian demand and opec internal demand)
It isn't helping with Israel talking out loud of bombing Irans nucleur installations either
Chris Laidlaw will be interviewing someone tomorrow morning, on the 8 to 12 program on 1YA, about peak oil.
Missed who it was I'm sorry.
Hi bermuda. The main point on what happened last night is that spucators are drivnig the volatility. supply and demand doesnt change this much in a week
im not sure if it was mentioned but here is a couple of things that have happened in the last few days.
Indonesia are now removed from opec as they are now a nett importer of oil.
In Malaysia earlier this week petrol prices rose nearly 40% in a single day. Think of how this impacts the local economy and ones own livelyhood.
You won't believe the fuss over here about the price of oil and who's to blame - Congress have been cross examining CEO's of the big Oilers, threatening to sue OPEC :p:p and want to lower the daily limit from $20 to $10 for the futures markets.....Denis Gartman make a very incisive observation earlier this week on Fast Money (CNBC) when he said the hedge funds and "speculators" have been selling their long positions out since July last year.
I did think to myself at the time - so once they are done selling, where's the offer side going to come from?.....as despite this selling, we all know what the trend has been...... oh dear
The dynamics of the past 10 days trading in oil is fairly transparent - the market got short, (CNBC 'guru's - get short - this bubble is about to burst), the natural buyers said thanks very much, I'll take everything you've got, and really, all it's taken is for a geo-political announcement to cause a very nice Friday short squeeze on the shorts in the markets, and the dollar trashed again of course.
Natural demand won't go away team, get used to it
Nah, not "mine" - I'm a home grown flightless bird currently out of my usual habitatQuote:
your investment banks
Nita Malaysia,India and some other asian economices are slowly removing the hugh subsidies and this can hurt.I personally would never have subsidies as they give false hope and a distorted view of economic reality. Thank god we have elimitated most in NZ.
But did you realise when you are talking about the hugh overnight POO that war is up but the subsidy removal is down.Now if we could just get all the oil produces to remove subsidies the POO would go down. The yanks[or west] could also put in a sliding car engine tax that would also save a lot of petrol.
Saying that speculators are to blame for High oil prices is the same as saying The New Zealand media is responsible for The downturn in the housing market...
:cool:
.^sc
Good thought SC - the REINZ did try to blame the media for the housing downturn, pathetic!
So when most of these options get converted, what are NZO going to do with all the cash they have?
How about a takeover of PPP? MCAP is only $150m
The depth on NZO is pretty amazing 174k buyers vs over a million heads for sale
They ought to have a go at CUE to grab Maari
I doubt whether that would be practicable given that Todd Petroleum hold 25% and Singapore Petroleum 14%. CUE and SPC have a few interests in common and IMO it's more likely that there could be some action there. Meanwhile, anyone else who wanted CUE would have to pay a pretty good price to tempt the two big holders.
I don't see CUE's 5% interest in Maari as sufficiently tempting for NZO to do that.
These Todds are ruthless operators from what I've heard and from what I've been told... Todd's would probably do a reverse takeover if someone tried to take CUE away from them...
:cool:
.^sc