More likely:
1. No
2.No
3. Nowhere.
Disc: Still holding.
Printable View
More likely:
1. No
2.No
3. Nowhere.
Disc: Still holding.
Might be the last chance to get some at $1.03-$1.04.
The wall of relentless selling which has dogged the SP over the last 3 months is now evaporating quickly.
The rest of the sector as enjoyed some nice rises of late. OCA has got some easy catching up to do now the selling has ceased (wonder how long before they return and what the new level might be ).
i know it sounds like ramping but I am finally excited that the wilderness days for OCA just MIGHT be over.
Must admit that I have been feeling sorry for OCA shareholders lately. As I have posted before, its about 3 years before their service offer is 50-50 new model / old model and in the meantime a really key question is can Earl and his team control their operational costs effectively ? On the evidence I have seen to date and the odd whisper I hear from within the company, there is considerable doubt and I remain of the view we will see pressure on profitability mainly due to human resource cost expansion. I expect continued sector underperformance. That said, it does appear to have built a decent base at around $1.02 so those that take a really dogged approach to holding should do okay.
The overhang remains and I remain of the view that this is also a very key consideration going forward.
In case anyone is interested, Earl gave a presentation about OCA for the ASX https://youtu.be/g7MUWwddWDg
Awesome link Kelvin. Thanks for posting it. I have visited most of those sites , sometimes twice , the most recent was a walk through Green gables (Nelson) construction site last week. With a guide and all the PPE -just for the record.
After seeing a few you can clearly see the pattern OCA is all about which is what Earl clearly articulates.
Make no mistake that OCA are not offering a social service to house ALL our seniors. They are precisely targeting the local high end guys, offering an expensive product at sites centered in the premium areas.
Greengables for example have competing ARV and SUM building the usual one story villas over the hill in Stoke, nothing wrong with that formula either , but OCA is a 3 story build(= views + density efficiency)200 m from the Nelson CBD/ city gardens. Now that's a serious point of difference.$$$.
I might normally have lost a bit of confidence in this company with its current low / frozen share price but knowing the sites, seeing OCAs execution and vision I'm very confident they have a winning formula. It will take time , perhaps more time than most"traders" seem prepared to give it, but as an "investor" they are well underway with their ducks all in a row.
If anyone is out for a Sunday drive up there, because I'm sure Aucklanders just love going back onto the motorways in their weekends, recommend seeing Sands, Meadow bank and Awatere, (Hamilton- A more regular sized rebuild). You will get a clear feel for what they are about. You can even order a meal/ coffee etc from their community centres . I always felt welcome.
While I personally got in a little too early, shareprice wise, I would rather have risked that than missing the boat for the sake of a few cents.
Suppose the seaside resort Oceania has near Auckland would have paid for itself by 2050
This in Nature says that we've been underestimating the effects of climate-change-related flooding, and that major cities across the globe will be inundated and essentially unlivable by 2050.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z
Obviously - in some places the coast will erode - and in other places you will find it is even gaining additional land. Even these endangered Pacific Islands seem to grow (https://www.bbc.com/news/10222679 or https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-...owing/10627318).
I guess we will need to wait and see whether the sea comes closer to this specific property, or whether it moves away. Will depend on the local rips ...
OCA presenting at the UBS conference this week , I'm not expecting any new information but you never know. Plus I'm also not expecting the attendees to rush out and start buying either, at least not this week.
I am rather pleased to see some SP movement the last few weeks, maybe a new theorem to add to the famous Couta ratio...
"every 10 % the whole sector goes up , OCA goes up 1 %."
I don't mind offering my opinion, Value-I, for the up coming HY result due late January. After all, thats what this forum is here for.
I'm picking around $34 million underlying profit, which is about 35% higher than last years. I know this sounds ludicrous given last years result was flat.
The rate of new sales for last years late deliveries is the big variable that will mostly influence the result. All other factors are simple maths based on known values.
I have spoken with OCAs investor relations guy( nice fellow too) and he won't tell me or even the instos what the sales are doing. ( he said they try all kinds of ways to find out but he said they don't know any more than the rest of us). So that means the last known sales figures where the ones given at the annual meeting a few months ago. This means a large extrapolation based on a short time frame of data, not ideal. Based on those sales rates, the two big deliveries, browns bay and meadow bank, should sell down fully over 12 months. Based on other years deliveries and other retirement companies ,this also seems about right.
Earl has said, the care profit part of the business will be similar as last year. This is important because it has been reducing significantly for the last three years. Basically , wages rises, inefficient staffing rates(due to the inefficient occupancies)and also turning clients (revenue) away to allow the redevelopment of villages has caused this. Beagle and I disagree on this issue, as he has said here that he sees this as out of control expenses but OCAs reasoning does make sense to me after seeing first hand what they are doing on these sites. Interestingly the 2 major sites currently being built are both non operating sites so that issue isn't a biggie this FY. Unless of course Beagle is correct.
I don't see the result being weighted to either HY as the selling down should be fairly even with other new builds being completed and delivered on a fairly smooth timeline.
So there you have it, according to me it's going to be a stunning and sustainable result but as you will see by the share price , I'm the only guy who thinks so.
Not a crime for OCA to update the market on sales progress...and I would bet my last dollar Macquarie know how things are going in great detail with monthly management reports. One thing I will be scrutinizing carefully with the half year result is the profitability from the existing care side of their operations.
For mine, they need to demonstrate that they can operate this, (the bulk of their business model for the next 2 years at least) without any further deterioration in profitability.
The company is very keen to talk up the transition of their business model, (which will take many years to come to fruition and is not by any means an all encompassing panacea for lack of cost control disciplines within their entire business), and much less keen to talk about how profitability is deteriorating in the care side of their operations. If the can't stop the rot and control costs properly that lack of discipline will affect profitability going forward forever and a day until they get a new CEO who is highly disciplined and not so focused on being a people pleaser. Earl is a nice guy, don't get me wrong, too nice is the problem. CEO's need a bit of mongrel in them and I don't think Earl has any.
$1.06 today best price in months with good volume too.
Rising tide lifts all boats even those with systemic issues.
Beagle...get him to join mongrel mob gang...
I will have to "update" my reading on OCA before I attend an OCA presentation on the 25th.
Very quick skim of Hobson wealth research, I note they have a valuation of $1.40,and a out perform rating, with a $1.21 one year target price.
Interesting.
Oceana man about to be interviewed on RadioNZ about simplifying retirement home contracts for anyone interested.
Thanks whome here is the link https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018721974
Thanks Penn. Had a meeting so didn’t hear it. Now I can.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...ernment-ageist (With thanks to Couta1 for sending me this link)
My concern - there is stuff all money to be made in providing care services so those companies which have the bulk of their business model in this area will continue to underperform.
Starting to see some upward pressure on the sp.
Bit of a re-rating across the retirement sector due property outlook?
Woohoo, breakout above $1.10. Very happy for Maverick !
Ok Fella`s, you will all be a bit jaundice by now on how very bullish I still am on OCA`s fundamentals and especially the up coming HY1 result. I've got nothing fresh to add about any of all that until we get some more intel.
What is outstanding right now about this company is its almost stagnant share price while all its peers have shot up.
The rises of share prices from their troughs from about 4 months ago (when the sector was out of favour) to date ( the sector all loved up again) are as follows;
SUM $5.60-$7.70…..+36%
RYM $11.90-$15.10….+27%
MET $4.30-$5.84…..+36%
ARV $1.28-$1.62….+27%
OCA $1.02-$1.08….+6% (sad emoji here)
Solely on “a rising tide raises all boats”, OCA should currently be worth $1.30 . That's completely discounting any of the good news I am expecting in January.
Even those out there worried about Maccas` possible dumping ( certainly not myself ) its hard to imagine them doing anything like that at this time of year.
Seems to me it's like an early Christmas present.
You deserve some brownie points for your dogged determination.
I think the market will be focused on the possible MET takeover - merger this month.
Late next month we will see how OCA's care services are performing and their sales.
Very true mate, even a song written about it, enjoy :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWxS8jpgMmE
January 24 it is then.
Looks like somebody can't wait for Christmas in January (January 24 this is): SP closed today at 1.12 - i.e. the long standing resistance at 1.10 is truly smashed. All up from here? Lots of lengths to recover to catch up with the field ...
BTW - just noticed ... OGC passed a week ago the "Golden Cross". What possibly could go wrong from here?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BpkFGGQMJU Not much LOL
Now...as much as I love dogs there's no way in the world I would be kissing that one after a feed :ohmy:
If one subscribes to the view that the long term demographic of the demand side means this industry is 'well placed' to capitalise on a few more decades of growth, then OCA is now the best value play in the sector.
Savvy investors might be enjoying impressive upside capital gains and earnings if invested in the majors in this sector whereas they might also be enjoying a sustained under performing (in SP terms) company to accumulate a decent holding that has 'only' achieved a 10%+ capital gain, not including dividends, while positioning for a few baggers capital upside in the out years, plus dividends.
Patience is a b1tch, she harangues us with under performance in light of peers in the industry which is fair enough, but to take that on board in TOTO one misses the out years opportunity that value investors have such an acute eye for. OCA is cheap, very cheap for the value it offers and the returns it will give.
baa Baa ! I have a friend out there. I think there will soon be many more.
I am always about fundamentals and value so am completely comfortable paitiently waiting for OCAs time to come,but I actually think that catch up is finally starting to happen.
The sell orders are really getting thin now. I've seen this pattern before with the other retirement stocks before they have shot off.
As I have said earlier , it needs to go to $1.30 just to catch up inline with its peers. Then add a very solid result in January and $1.12 will seem very cheap.
Long term your dogged patience will pay off due to their increasing build rate which will eventually overcome the expense issues to a large degree, short term that's the other elephant in the room, apart from that the price should be $1.50 right now. Macca needs to leave or be significantly reduced in size, as soon as the price gets to a certain level another large dump of shares will take place and unless that's taken up by a large passive fund or the like then those shares are going to get recirculated for some time capping the price once again. On a personal level I see no hurry to take another large position at this point in time until I see solid progress on the above issues but admire your stance.
Nice to see some decent movement in the share price to $1.15. Yay! Still slightly underwater from Beagles "OCA,OCA,OCA"! calls but heading in the right direction. Hope the momentum holds up with the Jan 24 announcement. Good luck to all patient holders...
Nice increase for holders but sp should be near $1.50 right now, ask yourself why it isn't.
No investor in the world gets every single call right. Many professionals consider they've done well if they get 7 out of 10 investment decisions right, (I'm much harder on my self) and expect at least 8 out of 10 right, preferably 9.
My biggest holding is OCA and it is having a beauty of a run. Long may it continue as this is one of my longterm holding assets. I may sell down some of the longterm hold portfolio, if it is massively out of balance. That should be a while away.
Classic case of a high tide lifting all boats?
The Retirement sector 'boats' are doing well but there are still a few on the NZX that will not rise.
Patience is required, the stock will rise eventually if they can show their competencies over a period of time. You can compare to SUM or RYM but keep in mind those stocks have proven themselves to us over a long period of time consistently. I have a small position that I'd like to add onto but I need to see more.
If you are truly long term, you should be okay with getting in at $1.02 or $1.32 for example. If you are holding long term then one day its going to be worth lets say in excess of $5.
Hey Maverick, we're all in this together. We're not blind to the short-medium term challenges and I think you'll find that the silent majority here have a more optimistic and longer term horizon than the vocal few, albeit they're certainly correct imo about the recent present and perhaps into the medium term view. I don't mind the constant reminders of our folly, real or not. I say not.
The only thing I sincerely disagree with the cautionary non-holders about, as I have laid out previously, is fear of the Macca "overhang". I won't bother repeating the detail, my assessment is documented here. I have no fear of it, or the consequence of their eventual exit, imho it will be orderly, off-market and not price affective.
OCA has presented a perfect opportunity for my needs, as not all of us can lob a few 10's or 100's of k$ into a stock in one go, so being a prolonged suppressed SP has enabled me to accumulate a decent prudent portfolio holding positioning for the future. I feel content having a holding that is in the black already that I have no intention of selling, and having one of the few of my selections that I can honestly consider as a value play.
All the best, the future is ours and our fellow shareholders to enjoy.
This is very well said. They have much to prove as a very young company on the NZX. I will need to see evidence they can stop the decline in profitability in their core care operations which account for about 80% of their current business model. Disciplined cost control and efficient management of the care operations is essential to profit growth.
As for a rising tide lifts all boats, that from experience is unfortunately not true. If they have leaks in them they don't rise as much as others. A good tough skipper also helps a lot and one wonders if Earl Gasparich is simply too nice... Having a ton of weight on this from a resident elephant is also weighing it down. Fix the leaks and get rid of the elephant, (which will take time), and it should be a good performer.
Well most of shareholders were betrayed by Macquarie last time...? Isnt it....
If MET sales goes ahead Tthe NZ Superfund would have enough cash to help Macca out - assuming they will keep that cash in the sector
Like selling out of one dog and buying into another dog ....and hoping it’ll be OK
Wonder if this is behind the sudden spurt in the OCA share price .....and if it goes above $1.20 Macca offering a discount might still be OK for them
Up another 3 cents already, to $1.18 ... keep going you good thing :t_up:
yes, happy christmas to me! I'll gladly reduce my holding and take a holiday somewhere fancy :)
I've got a question for the seniors here who have worked inside corporate life (like you Winner)
OCA has shot up so quick on no news. Yes yes , lots of catch up to happen and still way under valued IMO but the speed has been breath taking. Now this is OCA we are talking about, It's almost famous for being so boringly flat.(check out the SP graph for the last year)
Soooo , my question .....is it a likely scenario that the fellas doing the HY 1 results right now (the period finished end on November and due out end of next month) have spilled the beans on a really good upcoming result? I personally am anticipating it to be a 30 % profit increase YOY.
if my calcs are in fact correct on the big jump in profit, then is a leak possible or no way that actually happens here?
I am ignorant on this , while it's seems likely to me leaks happen, I know the penalties are very harsh in NZ.
the rally in retirement stocks is largely thanks to the RBNZ 50 point cut in interest rates
Sure has been a sudden burst in the share price eh Maverick
You ask why
Responses have covered 1) sector in favour (rising tides etc) but OCA a bit late to the party and 2) anticipation of a boomer half year result (Couts buy the rumour, sell the fact) but usually such behaviour is closer to the announcement and not a month out.
Those 2 factors have no doubt played a part but I have the feeling that it’s related to what Couta has been on about how funds recycling shares are also how Macca is playing the market. Price action now vaguely similar in the leadup to the last sell Macca sell down. Watch this space.
But then again it might just be private equity taking a stake before launching a takeover.
What private equity takeover..winner? I hope not.... otherwise All NZX companies will be taken out n we have no NZ companies
Bigger than OCA, but just some random thoughts:
Just listening to the news of Australia on fire ... and looking at the Australian population pyramid (https://www.worldometers.info/demogr...-demographics/). Nearly 4 million Australians are currently between 65 and 85 and each of them can at any stage just hop on a plane to NZ and stay here forever.
If only 1% of them decide that they have enough of the increasing heat and the smoke and want to spend the reminder of their years in a more benign climate with less smoke in the air - this would be already 40.000 more people queuing up for a nice retirement village place in NZ.
I recon I need to increase my share of retirement stocks (with OCA being one of the most reasonable priced) . The future looks sizzling hot ...
We have been taking friends from Wellington around retirement villages. They had almost decided on a two bedroom unit at summerset Ellerslie for about 900k. I took them out to the Sands and it was a no brainer for them they paid a deposit the next day for a 1.2 M$ unit. We were all very impressed with the Sands. Proximity to the beach and restaurants in Browns Bay make it an excellent location. Our friends had a number of units to choose from. Oceania will not have any trouble selling these ultimately. The restriction that all residents have to be 70 and over could rule out a lot of prospective buyers. OCA have done a great job with the Sands. I believe it bodes well for the future. I am a happy shareholder.
Other than doing nothing which seems to be the case (if they had done anything it would be announced if more than a % movement) Macquarie might be looking at the nice rise recently to find some insto's to offload to off-market. Otherwise there's no evidence Macquarie are doing anything at the moment and they probably see the potential to close out their fund that OCA is part of with a windfall profit... which isn't now or anytime soon.
As for private equity, who knows really, the big money might want to hedge their acquisition plays in this sector in which case OCA is a logical alternative choice value play to buying the leaky building saga at MET. I'd be disappointed to see an acquisition bid on OCA, I reckon they'll run up a 3-5 bagger from here before the serious money wants a long term sniff.
Nice feed back Brain, thanks for posting.
Yes, once you've visited OCAs Sands(and others ) you can clearly see their style with the premium makeovers they are all about , and the areas they are in.
By any chance do you or your friends know how many units were sold and under contract (or still available) and the sale price groups they fall into, they have 3 rates. And if you do know any of this what was the date.
If they ran a disciplined approach towards cost control I'd be in. The market needs to see more evidence that internal controls regarding cost are working well. OCA could get some support in 2020 from funds reinvested into the sector from the cash generated by the takeover of MET. The other big beneficiary from a MET takeover will be SUM which is still cheap on a forward earnings basis considering their long established and very well proven growth rate.
Brains anecdote seems to indicate a certain amount of price flexibility at the good end. Perhaps OCA will maximise this aspect and costs will be less critical to success. Of course some discipline but I just that sometimes you have to spend more than say an industry average to sustain premium quality and branding. Location not so important in this case either...
Quality lingers.
Mav, a nod is as good as a wink anywhere though its a lot easier to get caught with trails these days, so the rumours will spread but only the well and truly disconnected can have any hope of getting away with it.
Back in the old days when I first worked in the stockbroking trade it wasnt even illegal. All those printed contract notes out in the back office got seen by a lot of people haha.
Sorry Maverick I don’t know the answers to your questions for sure because I didn’t want to grill the sales Manager which is what I would wind up doing to get accurate answers.
My impression is that probably nearly half of the independent units are sold or under contract and probably evenly distributed in the price tiers. I have no idea about the occupancy of the care suites.
we visited 2 days ago.
I guess my key takeaway is that this place is classy. It has an energy about it being located close to the beach and shopping centre. Many of the places we visited did not have this energy they had the feeling of this is where people come to die. Not the case with the Sands.
If OCA can continue to do this type of development they will be developing a great brand. Happy to be a shareholder.
Thanks for the response Brain. Just for fun I put your 50% Sand apartments sold into the s/sheets. I fully understand your figure is just an impression and very rough. It is a little less than sales I had extrapolated from last known info given by OCA in September.
I have also applied this new, lower sales rate to their other building currently selling down ,Meadowbank stage 4.
The updated result from Brains guess is HY1 profit of 31M , apply a PE of 13.5 and the share price should be $1.38
I have been predicting, using the extrapolated sales rates from actual known sales back in September, the share price under the same conditions would be $1.50.
So lots of share price appreciation ahead either way.
These HY1 profit forcasts includes the care side profit of the business as being flat.
The problem with waiting for Macca to finish their exit, waiting for more "proof" the care costs are under control and waiting more years to financials to look back on is that the share price will have also adjusted upwards accordingly. I think ARV is a good example of this as far as share price growth and time taken to get market acceptance goes.
Its hard to imagine being able to buy OCA at $1.02 ever again. New share holders now have to pay an extra 15% to get on board.
Weekly chart, log scale. Technical breakout this week from longish term resistance, now support. Trend line breakouts Oct & Nov confirmed. Not too late to get some, $1.21-$1.23 should provide stern price resistance. Break up through there ATH has blue skies above.
Enjoy :)
If there was deep value at the current price like some here are suggesting multiple parties including private equity would be talking to Macca's and OCA's board about a takeover instead of MET. We're still 2 years away at least from this company being 50/50 new business model with ORA based care v old model which has more cost leaks than a sieve.
I hope it is $2.20 by Christmas 2020 because if it is SUM will be ~ $15.
I think the ideal time for Macca's to dump their remaining ~ 250 million shares is when shareholders have their cash in hand from the MET takeover. There will be a lot of money looking for a new home in the sector at that point.
and of course RYM will be...$30 :) Seriously though, it should be a good year for this sector in 2020 and I see no reason why well established companies with a proven track record of growth should be trading below the median level of the NZX50 of about 19 PE.
ARV already about there, maybe $2 next year, SUM should attain $10 in 2020, MET should get taken over and the acquirer will be getting a genuine bargain at ~ $7.25 and OCA should do well too if they can show there is no further ongoing erosion in the profitability of their core care services, maybe $1.40 next year.
RYM already on very stretched multiples but the overseas insto's love them so who knows, it might crack $20 in 2020 :ohmy:
Winner tells me its nearly Christmas so I put my charitable hat on speaking of those price targets except of course MET and SUM which are a given and probably very conservative :)
OCA been a dog stock most of the year
Probably why this is a headline in the SMH
Christmas cancelled at the millionaires' factory
Last week, as workers across varying industries were gifted Christmas hampers, gingerbread houses and bottles of bubbles some staff at Macquarie Bank finished up the year with, well, nothing.
There’s a few on here that go with the wind, within 12 months, OCA is the best thing since sliced bread, then it’s crap then back to it being the bees kneez. SUM was the best business of them all, then they can’t sell stock they built, now they going to be worth a gazzillion dollars a share in the next 12 months. MET and ARV never in the race, now they are...
You guys should quit it aye, there are some young traders on here that will believe the nonesense that is put out because they don’t know how to DYOR. So please think about them when you put out “cr@p”.