A little bit but while I get the chart thing they often don't pick up good news recent example was TME when they bounced off a $3.00 low and didn't seem to see the US competition for AIR.
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"all comes down to cost-benefit. In these days of cheap fuel the fuel-hungry engines of the 767 don't cost as much to run so despite higher maintenance they still make a profit. I can't imagine for 1 minute that AirNZ would continue to fly them if they made a loss!"
I think they have provided capacity flexibility whilst waiting for the delayed 787s. I'm no accountant but why would they spend 20M on major maintenance per aircraft when they will be gone in two years?
Might be some more headwinds in the sector ....
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34795769
Where did the $20 million per aircraft come from? If in fact that is true (perhaps a D check) then that would improve their resale value - there are plenty of older 767-300ER aircraft still flying (up to 27 years old) with some having been converted to freighters.
(Edit) Just checked - seems a D check takes about 50,000 man hours and cost is about 70% labour, 30% parts. Assuming charge-out rate of $100 per hour that would mean about $8 million for the most expensive D check. Where does your missing $12 million come from?
Tim you must read past posts..it's all there....
As long ago as 6 months.. some technical posts mentioned cracking the $3 secular resistance was going to be a big test for AIR ..remember reading posts reciting "Xerof's Bat"
OK.. I will spend time but mostly with my TA posts ..Tim don't expect others to use their valuable time to trawl through past posts..this is your job..eh?
12/2/2015....Air struggling for 2 months to crack the $2.65 resistances..BB tightening up on a non trending price, RSI negative divergence gives a slight hint that price may fall back
AIR Price $2.64
Addition DISC:..On the 25th February AIR jumped +7.2% to close at $2.76 This was a start of a rally to end ($2.97) a week later failing to break the $3.00 resistance..
I had a ST holiday from Mid- February to May 2015 and didn't post during that time
18/6/2015
AIR Price $2.395c
7/7/2015
AIR Price $2.56
Chart showing past history drop in Oil prices had no correlation to AIR shareprice..sudden drop late 2014/early 2015 and constant low oil price since has failed to push AIR through the Bat pattern resistance $3...so AIR remains high risk...An possible explanation why low oil prices hasn't helped AIR share price..
The chart also shows the cyclical nature of AIR and the Bat pattern
23/08/2015
Chart showing squeezed BB on a trendless AIR price..quote"I must admit I was surprised by the TA neutrality so close to its Wed 26th August FY announcement"
(AIR price $2.70)
24/8/2015
AIR Price $2.67
A multilayered historic 1999 -2002 chart --Rosey broker forecasts with shareprice conflict...my point was ..Fundamental analysis is unreliable when cyclicals reach very low PE's
28/8/2015
AIR Price $2.49
Roger fundie V Hoop techie debate (AIR firing more sell signals)
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Roger http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/...post-right.png
**** the technical analysis. I'm not selling. Gets much cheaper I double down.
But Roger ...
You **** the TA when it fired a mass of sell signals 11 weeks ago at 270 when a bearish double top pattern was formed using TA (charting) discipline.
You dismissed TA (indicators) discipline when they showed bearish divergences around the $3 level 4 months ago..
You dismissed the long term TA (harmonic) discipline when it showed a possible bat formation warning 6 months ago..and later confirmed that AIR is a cyclical stock and is still behaving as one.
28/8/2015
24/9/2015
AIR Price $2.44
chart..note mid Sept AIR price touched neckline& 2.35 support and respected it and bounced up (a positive sign on a bearish backdrop)
8/10/2015
AIR Price $$2.60
Also see Baa Baa chart
28/10/2015
AIR Price $2.95
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by winner69 http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/...post-right.png
Today the day 3 bucks reached ....and broken?
Love these cyclical stocks ....especially when the cycle is up
Most things have same cyclical attributes in them anyway, even the so called non-cyclical things
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[Hoop]..Hmmm..I wonder where Xerof's Bat is.....not the cricket bat type..:mellow:
30/10/2015
AIR Price $2.91
3/11/2015
AIR Price $2.81
3/11/2015
Chart questioning Junes bull cycle reversal to bear cycle...there was a tell tale bear cycle behaviour with a sucker rally but then with positive news AIR exhibited some bull behaviour...topping out at 2.955 shows bearish behaviour returning (red arrow) Xerof's Bat wins this round...Also debating sell signals short term signals have fired medium term signals haven't.
4/11/2015
AIR Price $2.80
10/11/2015
AIR Price $2.72
AIR Price closed today 12th November $2.72 up 7c (+2.64%)
Disc: Portfolio 20% shares 80% cash
AIR flying to Ho Chi Minh in 2016. Might be good for a few cents on the SP today.
And for us Aus residents, AIR does $949 return sale fare (G class, not grabaseat F class) to LAX/SFO. You get to pay an extra $400 to fly out of AKL, even though the flights from Aus connect there!
I'll never understand how flying an extra 5000km is somehow cheaper, but it sure seems to work for the margins!