I think it's all part of Chinas belt and road initiative. I believe Japan are doing some JV with a couple countries as well.
Printable View
Yeah, been on them and they are nice and smooth.
Pity a pair of their trains crashed and killed a few people.
Unfortunately, their signaling wasn't an end-to-end system and seems to have been enabled section-by-section.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wenzhou_train_collision
Tomorrow’s Investor Day presentation (incorporating a trading update) has been released to the ASX this evening:
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap...df02a206a39ff4
Previous guidance maintained.
Getting blasted
Why big drop?
Maybe headlines like this don’t help
In BusinessDesk
Tourism Holdings notes potential speedbump in earnings forecast
Tourism Holdings predicts it will still report a net profit of at least $48 million in the June year but sees a risk arising if vehicle sales take longer than expected.
Thank u master winner
sidebar but some myths being perpetuated on here, countered here: https://twitter.com/drdrehistorian/s...JayvcUgqiWUPDA
Bloody lucky...was going to buy yesterday....but busy at work... forgot about it... otherwise 40c under the water... instantly
Morgans has an add rating and target A$5.15
THL is now trading on a recovery year (FY25) PE of only 8.7x, which is attractively priced for a global, market leader.
Director bought more share yesterday $3.86 total 18200 shares....ehmm...might get in to support her confidence
does anyone has any idea why sudden drop today..down 24c.. sp 3.46 today. results were not that bad.
Brokers were ramping buy couple weeks ago n SP started to fall after the recommendation. I guess it is the fundies taking profit. Now SP looks to go up again
That is how the fundies roll....big trading in the last couple days . They got back with cheaper SP.....rinse n repeat with their own agenda and recommendations
Hi zulu; the last couple of days trade has been on low volume - so dont read too much into it. also note the strong run since June last year; so while the results seemingly weren't that bad, they likely didn't meet the turn around story that the market had priced in. hope that helps.
FY 23 $48m NPAT confirmed on the last announcement. Although there are a risk that some vehicle sales go through FY24.
End of June past, n today the announcement result is due in August.
THL will resume the dividend. Since thl in SP Asx ordinaries, the SP is quiet volatile. Up n down follows the ASX index.
Pie fund is holding this puppy n very bullish about THL
Looking very closely to add to my portfolio
Just as well thl not dependent on nz
Tourism firms will find it hard to grow revenue, Westpac says
https://www.nbr.co.nz/business/touri...-westpac-says/
https://www.msci.com/index-review
Add to MSCI global index this end of month
Wow...15c dividend!!
NPAT $49.9m ....above the forecast $48m
Did not expect that....I thought would be 8c max...
THL will in MSCI small cap thus Wednesday
Man..wished I bought more when down to $3.35...
Huge result, very pleasantly surprised by such fat divvy (was expecting like max 10c or so), that too fully imputed. Looks like good old days of THL are back.
CEO mentioned...that they wished to have more camper vans coming this summer...as the demand is so high
Dividend 15c....ex date 14th September...2 weeks time
I'm always a little weary when a company this size is paying a dividend. Shouldn't they use the cash to buy more fleet. Or is the Asian Market a long way off from coming to NZ.
Resignation of CFO… any thoughts?
Tmw AGM....an update will be on tomorrow meeting. Last announcement said they are very positive about the business...so... market looks mute, wait n see tomorrow update
CFO got a new job at old Vodafone
Are you going along X-men? Be interested to get your thoughts
No..not going. But from the last announcement....I do feel thier tone was very positive moving forward.
People will cut down the spending but for travelling...I do think people will still going for it despite high interest environment
Estimated forecast NPAT $77.1 m for year 2024
Very positive tone!!! Grant also said... despite all the price increase .. people are keen and accepting the high cost of thier travelling holiday
Watched thier presentation...
Better to be conservative.. upgrades will be an icing on the cake...
But the board is very professional and positive moving forward
Thanks x-men. See a big chuck of shares changed hands afterwards.
That was amazing eh ..being fundies ...they are able to change shares in large amount without moving the SP
Could not blame them... COVID!!!
For a board that has a gut to give a forecast of NPAT $77 m with current economy conditions...I truly trust them and have a good strong confidence they will achieve it. I don't see any black swam event like covid coming anytime soon.
A lot of companies will not give any forecasts
Based on that the dividend will be 15-20c
Jarden homepage forecasts NPAT 2024 at $48.8 m...way above the broker expectation. So...won't be surprised an upgrade from broker coming up soon
I saw it ..sold out before Feb 2020 first lock down! Made a million!
That $77m forecast for F24 not that good really …they basically made $81m in F23 (Pro forma underlying NPAT excluding acquisition costs)
Nice they are more ambitious (and hopeful) about the future talking $100m by F26
He said to start....good indication to start..with uncertainty economic considerations..I do really think they are very conservative
Yes I think many of us remember it well but given what happened with COVID, the Board and Management can not really be blamed for that. I'm glad this was my first share to sell as soon as we started getting news of COVID.
On a different note, I recently completed a drive through 9 states in the USA, mainly following the eastern part of Route 66, in an El Monte RV. Picked up in Chicago and given back in Dallas 2 weeks later. I can not fault the service or the vehicle but one thing that caught my eye was their advertising/marketing and their very confusing branding. We booked with El Monte, knowing it was a THL company. When we took a taxi to the pickup place in Chicago, at the address given, it took us awhile to find it. Turned out it wasn't an El Monte place but a rather run down "Art's RV, authorised Forest dealer". No mention of any affiliation to El Monte or THL, except in the office where some computers displayed THL logos and others El Monte.
Received emails from a THL address. No uniforms worn by staff to display the company they worked for.
As I said, absolutely nothing wrong with the RV or the service but I suspect many customers will get confused. Their branding in the USA certainly could do with some work on it. Great trip all up though.
Cheers - interesting story. Wasn't the takeover in 2017? You didn't say when your trip was, but I assume "recent" means within the last year or so - correct?)?
Sure - I don't know when (and if) they decided to rebrand, but given they had more than 5 years to think about it - ending up with a mix of branding is a bit of a concern.
I always had the impression they try to position themselves at the top end of the spectrum, and for that one definitely needs consistent and tidy branding.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...urism-holdings
Yesterday article.... Grant said this summer is looking very positive
Thanks for sharing!
Market pricing in summer/holiday season demand, could easily get close to $5 in the new year
Currently on holiday in Central Otago and notice as many Maui/Britz/Apollo/Mighty vehicles as I can ever remember seeing.
The THL NZ booking engine today details no South Island availability for a one week rental commencing 31 December and the North Island only details one vehicle type available - a 4 berth Britz Wanderer at $7,260 for 7 days.
The Australian booking engine shows a greater degree of vehicle type availability in Australia for the same period at rates just below A$3,000 (and above) for the week.
Will be interesting to see the next trading update in late February (or sooner) on rental yields and resale pricing.
Will be an outstanding result this coming Feb 2024!
The CEO mentioned on the AGM....they are expecting an incredible summer season and wished have more vehicles....
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/426448
Summary:
• Net profit after tax (NPAT) of $39.7M, an increase of 58% on the prior corresponding period (pcp)
• Rentals performs well globally, with rental yields growing or remaining stable in all markets
• Continued rental fleet growth, with closing rental fleet of 7,366 up 15% on the pcp
• An interim dividend of 4.5 cents per share declared, 100% imputed and 25% franked
• A challenging global vehicle sales environment sees fewer sales volumes. Gross profit margins are now normalising in most markets, in line with our expectations
• Action Manufacturing and Tourism deliver record half-year results and are on track to deliver record results for FY24
• We currently expect NPAT in FY24 to be around $75M. Rental demand and yields continue to outperform expectations which provides some upside potential. There also remains a level of uncertainty around retail vehicle sales which provides downside risk
• We reiterate our goal to deliver $100M in NPAT in FY26
NPAT $75m
Last year AGM said going to be around $77m
Vehicle sales volume is down....
Not sure the market will like it... arghh....
PRetty decent - P/E of 10ish. Seems ok to me
F24 expected npat $75m …….last year $81m ….hmmm
agreed.
about 10.3x PE on FY24 NPAT of $75m. That on the back of management's confidence of reaching $100m by FY26, that's 33% growth in NPAT in 2 years. So maybe $87.5m FY25 NPAT if $ growth even between the next two years.
would imply PE's of 10.3x, 8.9x, 7.6x on prospective results. Plus divies. Not unreasonable in my view. Macro overhang on sentiment obviously.
I enjoy that THL provided 4 sets of NPAT in their FY23 annual report
Statutory NPAT: $49.9m
Underlying NPAT: $47.8m
Underlying Proforma NPAT: $77.1m
Underlying Proforma NPAT adjusted for acquisition accounting: $81.1m
Page 8
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...232/401640.pdf
Market is not impressed
Not much love for thl these days as share price sitsxatv318
About the same as when they announced Apollo merger
I hear there’s a tourism boom underway
Reminds of the joke of many years ago in that the thl share price is negatively correlated to number of tourists ……might be going back to that trend
Yesterday a Substantial Product Holder notice was filled by the Trouchet Family detailing the sale of nearly 2 million shares on 20 March. The Trouchet’s were the founders of Apollo and received 28.7 million THL shares as part of the merger. The agreed escrow restrictions were that they had to keep 90% of shares until 30 November 2023 and 50% of the shares until 30 November 2024 (unless THL agreed to waive). With a sell down now having commenced, there is a significant overhang of shares which will undermine the THL share price until the sell down is completed (noting it will take time given the 50% restriction until 30 November 2024) or there is some explicit statement from the Trouchet’s that they are committed long term holders for their remaining shareholding.
From the WSJ an American view. Winnebago sales problem seem to be a bit like thl’s -
Good morning, CFOs. Winnebago Industries is facing a challenge with its financial forecasting, telling investors that, in a historically cyclical industry, its plummeting sales are likely temporary—but, in a shaky economy, it isn’t sure when they will fully recover.
Winnebago, best known for making motor homes and camper vans, benefited from a surge in consumer spending on outdoor activities during the early days of the pandemic. But sales to retailers plummeted as concerns about Covid-19 waned and people spent more money on air travel and hotels. High interest rates have also made purchases unaffordable for some buyers. During the quarter ended Feb. 24, net revenue at the company fell 19% from a year earlier, to $703.6 million.
Recreational-vehicle sales typically rise and fall with the economy. Winnebago’s business model is built to weather such downturns, even after RV shipments to retailers sank to the lowest point since 2012. Roughly 85% of the company’s costs are variable, meaning they can be quickly cut, Chief Financial Officer Bryan Hughes said. Over the past year, Winnebago cut its expenses by operating its production lines fewer than five days a week.
So if sales slow do they keep these new units flowing into the rental fleet to keep that fresh? Demand for rentals still seems to be strong.
thl share price languishing under $3
About the same as when the Apollo merger was announced
What’s happened in meantime.
Oh dear …big downgrade coming …not surprising …one been on cards for a while now
Reasons for trading halt: THL requests this trading halt to allow it to finalise its updated expectations for FY24 earnings and to provide updated guidance to the market, which is likely to be materially lower than its existing guidance.
The trading halt is in place until the announcement is made or until Monday May 6th whichever is sooner.
Monday May 6th then
Today we’ll hear if things aren’t really too bad or if things are really bad
Updated an old chart to show the ups and downs of thl over the last 17 years
Be interesting to see where profits and share price go from here
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/430552
thl advises that, following a review of all divisions, it now expects net profit after tax (NPAT) in FY24 to be between $50M and $53M. This compares to earlier guidance set in February 2024 for NPAT to be around $75M.
The weakening economy has impacted most regions and business divisions negatively and lowered expectations into Q4. Vehicle sales have been a major factor globally, with sales volumes and margins now declining more quickly than expected in most markets. Over 50% of the overall group EBIT decline is attributable to the Australian Retail Dealership division and in particular, a shortfall in the sales volumes of high-margin ex-fleet vehicles.
Rental yields have generally met expectations in most markets, however a recent slowdown in forward booking intakes for the Australasian shoulder season will lead to a poorer rental performance than earlier forecasts in the remainder of FY24.
An investor presentation is attached to this announcement with further detail.
Outlook for FY25 and FY26
thl has retained the goal for $100M NPAT in FY26. thl has considered the assumptions underlying the goal and believe the goal remains appropriate based on a positive rental growth outlook and a recovery in the RV sales market globally. However, expectations for FY25 are now below the FY23 Pro Forma NPAT of $77.1M.
Other implications
Based on its new forecast, thl is forecasting to be compliant with its covenant assessments for the 30 June 2024 quarter. However, thl will engage with its banking syndicate to seek to amend its covenant package to better reflect current trading conditions.
Based on a preliminary review, thl also believes it is probable that there will be impairment in relation to the UK/Ireland business division as part of the upcoming 2024 year-end process.
Bit bad for F24 eh Bob
But no worries …profits going to double next 2 years
Share will double eh ….be $6 in 2026
Today thl is a BUY ..a STRONG BUY
THL is going to engage with its lenders to renegotiate debt covenants. You can probably kiss goodbye to any dividends in the near future.
wow brutal open
Got a few in that scramble
Hoping for more
Hey Balance your 185 order stands out
Bargain hunters queuing up under 2 bucks
Think 200 might be as low as it goes
What price was the merger done at? sorry i dont really follow THL but thinking if it is now under merger price then must be good value aye
Way the economy is going people will be buying the motor homes soon, to live in.
Not much volume. Was expecting millions
Full year npat $50m …first half $40m ……second half $10m when it was going to be $35m ….so things turned to custard quickly last couple of months….or they have no idea what’s really going on
I remember selling out at $6.45 in 2018…was a good sell back then
Bought a few for the bottom draw today at 1.86… Quite a different beast today….should go ok when it key revenue markets pick up again…who know where it goes in short term…could be more pain to come
Probably should wait buying until the UK impairment gets finalised
Yes good point on uk impairment but uk one of their smallest revenue segment so don’t think it will impact group too much…thl primarly getting bulk of revenue from Australian and North American markets now with nz then uk and the manufacturing plant…happy to take small holding now and wait
Im not worried about good will write down, non-cash so doesnt matter. I would be worried about another downgrade.... too early for me I think.
Like Leemsip, I am worried about another downgrade, these things are not in isolation.
Having said that, just dipped my toes in and bought 5k at $1.78 as an initial entry point.
My concern is that management do not have great internal practices and their forecasting abilities are rather suspect. 30 odd percent downgrade out of nowhere?
Are they meeting continuous disclosure obligations or are there internal processes that flawed?
Conversely, the lowest the SP reached during covid was about $1.80 so if anything, and if the business is a going concern long term, this may be a good entry price.
I have been corrected on the above assumption that the lowest price during covid was $1.80. Closing price low was about $1.15 and the intraday low was $0.55.
Other point is, will we see an exodus of the big fundies loosing faith here?
Takes these guys a while to get a recommendation together and through the decision makers. Maybe later this week see a further downturn.
No hurry IMO. I will wait to see some more carnage.