HLG great business and management but I think all this virus stuff will have an effect on the bottom line short term. The Usd not looking too flash for us either. Will be looking to re-enter in low 4s;)
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HLG great business and management but I think all this virus stuff will have an effect on the bottom line short term. The Usd not looking too flash for us either. Will be looking to re-enter in low 4s;)
From a TA viewpoint the RSI has never been this oversold over the past 5 yrs, just out of interest.
If buying via Amazon or eBay from overseas, regardless of the purchase amount, GST of 15% will be automatically added when paying for the item. And that has already been effective.
Any overseas company with a turnover of 60k plus from NZ sales must charge GST when you purchase an item from them, I notice a few places that aren't so must be under the 60k or trying their luck.
couta...my call was $4.50 and was hit....but did not get any...as too busy at work...
YAWN...I am happy to wait for $2.70 - $3.00 again.
If there's a bit of recession fear, money will go to usd, then where does this leave companies that are effected by currency differences? Im liking the effect on fph, but not sure if it's good for hlg?
could be whats on the way to our shores for all retailers
WA retail fall worst in 3yrs
Things are going from bad to worse for local retailers, with the latest figures showing WA experienced its biggest monthly fall in retail spending in January in almost three years
https://thewest.com.au/business/wa-r...ng-b881481911z
makes perfect sense when you go into a recession retail demand shrinks
New Zealand retailers are reporting a 15 per cent drop in sales
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...ecimates-sales
probably affecting most i would say
Cauta will still buying...not matter what happens...
He can have as many as he likes as far as I am concerned. I am quite surprised by the extent of the retail slowdown at this very early stage and I think its a very ominous sign for the future.
I would take these numbers with a grain of salt. You remember ... "is it true or did you read that on stuff?'
Fake news are free.
Man on Radio NZ this morning talked about a significant increase in supermarket purchases - he said last week was only comparable to the usual pre-christmas madness and he expects this to continue for the coming weeks.
I suppose as well outstanding margins - or do they discount toilet paper, hand sanitizer and face masks these days?
Last time I checked supermarkets have been retail as well.
For what its worth BP I think Winner's insight is very useful. HLG's target market don't generally have large reserves of funds like you, I and others on here do to stock up at the supermarket so when they do start doing that non essential discretionary spending on other retail items like clothes probably takes quite a significant hit.
HLG also face a significant increase in the minimum wage with effect from 1 April 2020 which could not have come at a worse time. The currency is also under serious pressure.
I think its clear strong headwinds are building against HLG and its a good stock to avoid at present because nobody can reliably say at this point what their earnings will be in 2H FY20 let along FY21 so fundamental analysis is rendered almost useless and TA says emphatically to "stay away" so that's exactly what I'm going to do.
I was referring to the stuff line of "New Zealand retailers are reporting a 15 per cent drop in sales in the wake of the corona virus". I think they meant to say some retailers reporting a 15 percent drop ...".
I do agree re HLG ... not too many people will worry whether they wear during self isolation the latest fashion ;): ... and yes, if they invest anyway all available funds into toilet paper and hand sanitizer, then the latest fashion T-shirt just will need to stay in the shop shelves ...
HLG board clearly missed the trend towards people wearing face masks and full body suits. I proposed some weeks ago that they might want to move into this crucial market, but so far it appears they have missed the bus and been more busy instead of taking pictures of lightly clad good looking ladies wearing their products. I guess nothing wrong with the latter, but their timing was suboptimal.
It was Gorbatchow (the last decent Russian president) who said at some stage "He who comes too late is punished by life". Look - he knew already in the late 80'íes what's going to happen to HLG ... :);
roll on $3 :t_up: rinse and repeat
Many many decades ago had a holiday job at the place which distributed butter, cheese and eggs to the shops.
One thing I learnt was that Trentham race week (the good ol days when 20-30,000 punters would go to the races) was bad for sales —— could be 20% plus less butter and eggs.
Always remembered that ....essentials some times get shunted down the shopping list....just like Powerball last few weeks.
I think quite a few of us are waiting and eagerly lipping our chops in anticipation with this one!
I first bought at $3.15 in 2017, never thought I'd see those levels again ... waiting waiting waiting
The long term view is that they may end up missing the strategic boat in developing a more 'sustainable' aspect to their product offering and getting a better control over their supply chain. Their Australian competitors are working to get better at that but arent as good as HLG on retail fundamentals. I reckon they can get another cycle in before that starts to every affect them.
If we get community spread the shopping malls will be as quiet as a morgue. For what its worth, when the official virus count goes over 10 in N.Z. I am going to assume there's hundreds more infected who are currently asymptomatic and that's me done with shopping malls, restaurants and movies until the coast is clear, however long that might be. Happy to wear last year's clothes around the house, who cares ?
Eventually sure, but I think there are lots of people - particularly younger ones, in say their 20s or 30s - who are still making light of it and will continue to for some time. They won't stop going to the malls until their friends start getting infected. Even then, they may well rely on their youth and relative health to get them through. And if not, then they'll shop from home.
How many people, when the word "tsunami" is mentioned, rush down to the beach to see it? Lots more than you would like to think ...
True that, as stupid as it sounds... but there's nothing to see with this virus for the young ones other than heaps of their friends posting on fakebook and other social media channels how sick they are. I can't speak for others but I know my two daughters aged 28 and 31 are really worried and that was before I started talking to them about putting together contingency plans.
may as well do my bit in putting the fear of god into HLG shareholders ....everybody else is in panic mode
Glassons are going to be really struggling this in year in Aussie — maybe even be such a struggle they decide to pack up shop and come home and just be a NZ company.
Latest consumer confidence over there shocking news - and things going to get worse :
The ANZ Bank–Roy Morgan Research Australian consumer confidence index tumbled 4.2 per cent to 100.4, leaving it well below the average of 113.1 seen over the past 30 years.
It was the lowest reading since May 2014, largely reflecting dire sentiment towards the near-term outlook for the economy.
Number two daughter did her best to help Glassons turnover yesterday.
Around 500 a year die in NZ from the seasonal flu. Surprised you are still venturing out, zero deaths from cv19 so far in NZ. Italy is the first place to get a serious bout in the first world. Average 17,000 deaths a year from seasonal flu in Italy, 463 (and increasing quickly) deaths linked to CV19. First mover Singapore has 0 deaths so far, Korea has had similar infection to Italy, but 20% of the death rate for some reason.
Italy and Japan have the oldest populations of any countries which is probably why their death rates are higher.
Swapping out tomorrow's regular weekly scheduled movie and drinks gettogether after work with a couple of good mates with a good bush walk in the Waitakere ranges instead. More healthy in more ways than one. They think this is a one-off lol. This thing has given me "paws" for thought, you see what I did there :)
Just reporting some stats for the Trolls, over the last fortnight there was a net increase in shares over the top 100 holders of 225600, bye bye.
It sounds like the average age of the Italians dying is 80, Hallensteins is targeting a younger demographic these days.
On paper sure is a decent capital rout, but the strong holds have lost nothing if they haven't sold. I'd guess most of the top 20 have seen more than one cycle in this cyclical. I doubt as well that they are momentum traders with a stock like HLG.
Over to you Couta, the dog needs a run in the park, getting bored sitting at home with his auto-sum spreadsheet counting the cash. Lol
;)
Enjoy your walk with your mates. The sun will hopefully come up again tomorrow.
Or in kiwi (and aus) lingo "She'll be right mate"
Bought a bargain loss leader psychedelic t-shirt for $10 the other day from hallys. The shop attendant reluctantly gave me a handled paper carrier bag:t_up:
Good theme song for the annual meeting this year...rally the top ten troops.
Through these fields of destruction
Baptisms of fire
I've witnessed your suffering
as the battle raged higher
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu4oy1IRTh8
Strong brand based moat with large market share in age demographic targeted. Sadly caught in the binds of the current market downtrend. Added to the watchlist.
Reckon there's a few more shares coming for the Top100 shortly as retail dives and new minimum wages kick-in April .........
"A survey of Retail NZ members found 70 percent expected to have cash-flow difficulties and 30 percent had already cut staff hours.
Retail NZ chief executive Greg Harford said customers were choosing to cut back on discretionary spending.
"Obviously places like grocery, things are ticking along there, customers are still going out and buying food... but it's really in the discretionary areas of spending - perhaps fashion - where the impact's being felt."
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-z...ince-2009.html
holding up well today. was expecting to see something starting with a 3 in front of it....
Be interesting to see what happens to HLG sales when the stores get told to close
Still think all this will be the death knell for their Aussie dream.
Would people priority the clothing during the lockdown?
I would not think so
Cost of dry cleaning a shirt: $12. Cost of buying a new shirt (wholesale): $2
I don't think there will much disinfecting going on. They will probably pack the returns up in a box in the corner. Then the major shareholders, like Couta, will have a ready supply of rags so they can polish up their Porsches.
SNOOPY
I like your style couta.....man of my own heart, sticking to your principles and beliefs.
NZX down 0.6%. HLG down 12% today. Serious imbalance on irrational fear. Covid-19 package heavily favours keeping spending going.
Discl. Holding
you havent been margin called have you Couta?
(j/k)
Coutts managed to squeeze out a message by satellite phone from deep within the depths of cold of self exile in the Siberian wilderness. Through the crackle and weak connection I swear I heard him mutter a deep and meaningful philosophical thought. "Money is just a token you use on your journey through life".
Not sure what to make of this... Has he finally cracked the secret code of life or does he have frostbite of the brain lol
this is probably whats in store for NZ WHEN VIRUS SPREADS
Retail Traffic Fell Sharply After U.S. Coronavirus Cases Spiked
Foot traffic to retailers decreased 31% in the week through March 13,
As the virus spread through the U.S., signs indicated that consumers were leaning toward shopping for groceries and cleaning supplies over clothes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia
I spent some time looking out into space through my humble binoculars and have finally cracked the code to life..... this is profound stuff so listen up !
The sole purpose of man is to learn to love God and learn to love each other. Learning to love yourself and your neighbour is very much part of this.
Jesus is you friend.
Money is just a token you use on your journey through life.
HLG are good regular distributors of these token's so at some stage, (not sure when), they will be a good stock to own again.
kathmandu trading update today was not good
There has been a recent significant reduction in footfall in Australian and New Zealand stores
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350139
Kathmandu outlook provides a worrying leading indicator of how things might turn out for HLG for the foreseeable future.Quote:
There has been a recent significant reduction in footfall in Australian and New Zealand stores, impacting sales performance. Due to the uncertainty around the spread of COVID-19 globally and impacts on demand, at this time, the Group cannot forecast the extent to which COVID-19 will impact the business in the second half of this fiscal year. However, there is likely to be a material adverse impact to earnings.
Hmm - if people start religious disputes on retail stock threads, than the end truly must be nigh - mustn't it?
HLG has already taken a 40% hit in share price. bull.... just looking to feed at the trough of it going even lower. I actually use most of his comments as buy signals :D
i have lowered my mind set to a price target at this time of 2.50 at minimum due to big drop in earnings coming and reduced div if any but this could change lower at any time
Over the past month we have seen a reduction in sales and customers visiting our stores.
Smiths City trading update – Covid-19
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350192
I think actually buying any retailer store at the moment could be very risky , biggest risk would be a europe situation where all stores are forced to close. I think I will wait to see how things pan out before jumping at any retailer.
Just in case you have trouble reading