Don'T believe BROKERS ever young Vitamin they will say anything to make a sale as turnover is the name of there game, But if you hold and you want your share to rise it is getter to hear them say UP than DOWN..
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BRICKS flies back to OZZ next Wednesday AIR only has one flight that day from
Wellington and the plane is still not FULL..
Phaedrus (and others);
How do you see this stock now? AIR's management has never been better and they seem to be managing adverse financial impact of falling passenger loads with smart reductions in capacity (see their last monthly update for May).
I bought into it last Friday afternoon after comparing its recent slide against that of other airline stocks. Here for example is the sp compared against Qantas (brown). I'm guessing the selloff was due mainly to British Airways' awful financial report (their largest loss ever). 6m in AIR volume on Friday was enough to trigger my interest.
Your view?
I can only agree with the following.......Quote:
Originally Posted by biker; 23/3/09
Air N.Z., Virgin Blue Should Consider Tie-up, Macquarie Says
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By Robert Fenner
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Air New Zealand Ltd., the nation’s biggest airline, should consider an alliance with Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd. to cut costs and create a stronger competitor to Qantas Airways Ltd., analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd. said.
A tie-up, through a takeover or “significant” investment by Air New Zealand in Virgin Blue, would improve profitability on routes and save money by eliminating duplicated engineering and maintenance functions, analysts led by Russell Shaw said in a note to clients today.
Virgin Blue, Australia’s second-largest carrier, is battling losses from its startup of flights to the U.S., while the airline’s domestic market share is threatened by larger rival Qantas, Macquarie said. Auckland-based Air New Zealand last month announced it will cut capacity and fire workers amid slumping demand for business and leisure travel.
“With both airlines struggling in the current environment, we believe a merged entity or even some level of corporate investment by Air New Zealand in Virgin Blue would give these carriers improved longer-term prospects,” Shaw wrote. A combined company “would stand a far greater chance of remaining competitive against regional powerhouse Qantas longer term.”
Macquarie maintained its “neutral” rating on Air New Zealand and “underperform” recommendation for Virgin Blue.
Heather Jeffery, a spokeswoman for Virgin Blue, didn’t immediately return calls seeking comment on the Macquarie report. Air New Zealand’s media office didn’t return a voicemail from Bloomberg today.
Government Stake
Virgin Blue shares fell 1.7 percent to 29.5 Australian cents at 11:58 a.m. in Sydney. Before today, the stock was unchanged this year. Air New Zealand shares were unchanged at 91 New Zealand cents in Wellington.
Selling new shares to fund the deal may also dilute the government’s 75 percent stake in Air New Zealand, making it more attractive to domestic and foreign investors, Macquarie said.
Sydney-based Qantas and Air New Zealand scrapped plans to share flights across the Tasman Sea in 2006 after objections from Australia’s antitrust regulator.
Macquarie doesn’t expect an Air New Zealand tie-up with Virgin Blue to face the same opposition given Qantas remains a competitor on domestic routes in both countries. Still, any deal may still face hurdles such as foreign ownership restrictions, trade union objections and Richard Branson’s 25 percent stake in Virgin Blue, Shaw wrote.
“We don’t view any of these as being insurmountable obstacles to getting a corporate deal across the line,” Shaw said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Fenner in Melbourne rfenner@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 23, 2009 22:59 EDT
I have read Macquarie's research note.
I can't see any merger/equity injection happening given the current global economic environment and the hangover from AIR's Ansett foray.
From what I read, airlines are in survival mode. With AIR's undemanding gearing, it should emerge the strongest once passenger numbers turn.
Meanwhile Jetstar continues to shoot itself in the foot in NZ.
Passenger numbers are on the decline, and Jetstar will be competing strongly in the low-fare sector. Sometime back, I had an attack of nerves and sold my AIR shares at 83 c- I believe that it was the lowest that it got to then.
Now trading at 90 c. Its on my watchlist and QAN too.
Speaking as one who made money; lost money; lost money on Air NZ - admittedly several years ago, I'm convinced that there's easier ways of making money than investing in airline stocks.
;)
Been plenty of ups and downs eh Mcduffy
Late 2001 was the collapse of AIR and the govt bailed it out
The lowest the shareprice got was 78 cents (act 16 cents but been a consolidation since) but got backed to 140 in January 2002 when the govt pumped heaps of money in
Hard to imagine that once this great company had a share at $17 (in 1995) and even in the month it collapsed the shareprice started off over $4 .... $4.64 to 78 cents in a week or so was some drop.
Amazing that 8 years later the shareprice is not far off it's all time low ... even though it reached $3.60 odd once
Looks like the govt is under water on its investment ... even witht he dividends ... don't say much about that do they?
Yep macduffy ... agree with you there's easier (and less risky) ways to make money than AIR
If Qantas is as stuffed as this article says one would have think that AIR is stuffed as well ... maybe not as stuffed but stuffed
Qantas not being totally transparent .... May performance awful apparently ... (Quote) The passenger figures Qantas released to the stock exchange yesterday weren't flash - but the unannounced financial reality was much, much worse. ........ While Qantas told the ASX its May Qantas International and Jetstar International revenue seat factors were up 4 and 4.8 percentage points respectively, it didn't say that its yield on the combined international business had collapsed by 25 per cent.
The yield - the average price paid by the distance flown - points to the extent of fare discounting rampant on international routes and provides a more meaningful indication of how the bottom line is faring.
.....As a 1970s professor of statistics allegedly used to tell his class: "Statistics are like a bikini, ladies and gentlemen. What is revealed is suggestive, but what is concealed is vital."
http://business.smh.com.au/business/...0701-d4lp.html
After trading up to $1.12 per share AIR has tracked back down to under $0.90 per share.
Sold some around $1.10 per share and now thinking I might try a short term trade again.
Phaedrus, any thoughts on short and medium term trading of this stock?