Thanks for the advice, I'll check the Christchurch library for it..barring that.....I'll pry open the wallet
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Thanks for the advice, I'll check the Christchurch library for it..barring that.....I'll pry open the wallet
Yes thanks Arco, I have bitten the bullet and ordered that book. I do need to sharpen up on TA...
I added to my short NZD position at .7335, with another unit at .7308 last night (then saw it promptly move to 7340...)
Will add another unit on a break of 7260 (or MAY add on a rally back to 7290)
Everything looks heavy agst USD yeah? possible exception GBP which looks a bit oversold right here
Xerof
Xerof
I entered a large short position overnight at 7303
Currently + 35
LDI
Check it out at the library if you are able, but
you will need to buy it and refer often. Check
the web for a good discount - Amazon maybe.
arco
Arco, I like it when I've got good company:):)
LDI, US50.40 plus freight from amazon.com.
Buy it quickly, before the Kiwi drops out of bed :D:D
Just got out at .7266 for +47 on the dip.
It was a "large" position, relatively speaking, for my wee account :D
Hopefully, I'm not being too quick to take the money off the table(which from what I've read is a common rookie mistake).
I've reserved An introduction to foreign exchange & money markets. from Christchurch Library;
AND I've creaked open the wallet and blown the dust off the credit card for:
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications by John J. Murphy
as suggested...thanks again.
Having rid your wallet of the moths, once you get into the book, you'll be able to replace them with butterflies LDI;);)
Nothing wrong with money in the till.
I've just added another unit to my short at 7255
Xerof
anyone worked it out yet?Quote:
quote:NZ'S FINMIN SAYS EXPECTS NZD TO RETURN TO HISTORIC POST-FLOAT AVERAGE
circa 55 cents I would guess
So Arco, we have good company - Michael is short too!
Xerof
A 50 % retrace of the long up-move would take NZD
to 5689, and a 38% retrace to 6106.
http://futures.fxstreet.com/images/figure2.gif
A swarm of Butterflies indicate initial targets
over-lapping between 6550 and 6900. So these may
be the medium term regions to watch.
Clearly there could be a long way to go if this is
the case.
arco
Sold again at 7231.....
couple of good calls there Xerof
This is the trade we have been waiting for.
The signs were showing (previously mentioned)
and now the worm has finally turned.
Ticking away nicely +142
Trailing stop.
If you don't mind me asking, what depth do you guys run your trailing stops at?
I ran at 50 the other night and got taken out on several pairs when they bounced. (volatile night though)
tia
Slam
yeh good question slam. I'm very interested in Arco's answer, hes obviously had a lot of success with his trailing stops in the past.
As I commented recently I'm just putting them in at something like 150-200 out of the money only when I leave the screen - only to prevent catastrophe not to establish a risk/reward ratio.
Slam/Peat
Stop ranges can vary depending on your time scale, and whether
you are a short/long term trader. That you will need to decide
independantly. Xerof has mentioned the FIB 50 idea, and the
2% money management rule.
There are many indicators that can be used as a stop,
and using a combination is advisable.
These are the SL techniques I use.
Last Pivot. (see site below)
Moving average.
Candle Reversal Pattern.
Chuck Le Beau's Chandelier.
CBL 3 or 4. Tighten as trade progresses/faulters 4-3-2
Fibonacchi Retracement 50-618. (As mentioned by Xerof)
Gann Support/resistance.
Gut feeling.
As a start, I suggest you experiment with some of the
SL techniques discussed here.
http://www.thepitmaster.com/tricks/stoploss.htm
Trust that will be helpful.
Good trading.
arco
Speaking of Fib retracements, .7153 is 61.8% of the .7015 to 7378 rally, so it might be a bit sticky here, .7100 is 76.4%.
Momentum seems strong enough though for it to test 100%, which is of course .7015
Hmmm, Friday with no US data, maybe thats enough for the week - just a thought. Next week will determine validity of this run I think
Xerof
Cheers Guys
Xerof
Yes the 618 fib is bound to have some effect
because TA's will be monitoring that point.
On a reversal at this point there is always the possibility
of a rally to test the old brokwn support at 7195/29th April.
This ties in with the 50% FIB just broken, and may align with
possible MA resistance following from above.
arco
Yes thats as far as I see it going - 95/00 area. I have my trailing stops at 7215 for tonight and might have a look at the rugby instead of FX this evening!
cheers
Xerof
I do note thats the 50 sma on the 30 mins;);)
nice resource arco
have saved it for future references
am waiting till 2nd semester of uni be4 i start this stuff :D
man cant wait to start this baby rolling
*prob with demos et al, have tried tricom and marketech
they use the similar programs..
somehow when i want to query a price or place an order.. i always get a SEND error...
at least i got my IG markets i guess
Just took short NZD trades from 7335, 7308, 7255 and 7231 (2 units) back at 7111 for 805 pips (on one unit equivalent)
Will look to sell on rally to 7150 if seen, or on loss of 7080
Xerof
Nicely done Xerof
Great entry points as well.:)
Cheers
Slam
Still holding this as a longer term trade +229.
Circa 7080 may cause some hesitation IMO.
Yes, I thought we may have seen a bounce across the board earlier today, but seems not to be just yet. Haven't re-entered any USD longs yet - will see what Europe do to it but like you, Arco, still keen for much higher USD. Ideally should be able to re-enter on a slight bounce but have to admit it's not looking terribly promising at this stage for the bloc currencies.
A contact at ANZ has just put out a TA update on NZD - a breach of 7050/75 targets 66 odd cents in quick time - the old 'killer wave C'
Would love to post it here, but its a protected doco.
Xerof
Xerof
Thanks for that valuable info.
Here are some figures that might interest you,
and which tie in with the ANZ view.
A Bullish Butterfly could complete around 6562-6754.
There are Fib Levels circa 6502 - 6683
Plus other Gann levels throughout that may
cause some support and bounces. I will indicate
these as the NZD plot approaches.
arco
Xerof
Are you able to 'Snap' that ANZ doc and post it via TT,
or is it copyrighted?
arco
Arco, its on the other side now
cheers
Xerof
Xerof
Many thanks for positing the EW chart.
Short stopped out o/n at 7092.....+ 206
Auto long at 10 am.......7080......
+11 (short term trade)
arco
i can see easy the EW on the AUD/USD ..
howeva i am unable to see it in the NZD/USD?
mind if someone can give me a tip/hand?
Dazza
This might help
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/nzd.usd.gif
arco
very nice arco thank you :D
Looking like a flat correction for wave 4 at the moment, if it can stay below 7110. If not shouldn't stray too far north, 7150 maybe?
Xerof
arco
bugger that >< my ig markets account, the chart doenst let me alter the x-axis ><
to have quarterly like urs :D
whered u get ur chart from? i want some good chart facilities ><
if on a monthly x-axis chart.... i cant see the EW ><
Dazza
Ideally please put general questions on the Chi-Chat thread,
that way we keep the pairs topics clean and readable
for easy reference and back checking.
Re your query. I have my own software program - Metastock,
and pay for EOD data.
Check it out here - www.equis.com
arco
Still holding currently +68Quote:
quote:17/5.........long at 7080
arco
Anyone brave enough to sell yet?Quote:
quote:Looking like a flat correction for wave 4 at the moment, if it can stay below 7110. If not shouldn't stray too far north, 7150 maybe?
Xerof
Short NZD at .7140
XerofPerhaps not just yet...........becauseQuote:
quote:Anyone brave enough to sell yet?
The current small retrace might be EW3-4(1 & 3 hour chart)
and if that is correct there may still be a little more to come.
Also the upmove has not reached even 38.2 of previous down move.
Tight trailing stop just in case.
arco
OK patience may be required here -
I'm a fade-in seller at 7155, 7168 and 7175, s/l on the lot at 7210
OR s/l seller of full allocation at .7090
Xerof
Xerof FYI
Gann resistance level circa 7202 which
ties together nicely with 50% Fib and
old support from 27/4.
arco