Fair enough ... seems at this stage difficult to imagine anybody could have done a worse job. We probably will never know unless ... they wait another couple of days and make another offer just shy of $4?
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Down again , not the flavour of the week, big regigging of the financials having to take place with ABA before the market can settle on a value here imo!
David Bridgeman article in NZ Herald would not have helped;
"Abano drills into uncomfortable territory with dental backtrack."
What a mess !!
Yes it seems an impending train wreck
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12217257
Love the bit about the strategic review and hope they 'wont find any more cavities' ....I reckon they will and that extractions will be necessary
So 32% slashed off the share price since announcement
Recent performance suggested a share price with a 3 in front of it was inevitable
Wonder what next week brings
Wowee those guys at Forsyth picked it well yet again... similar to EVO (right before it fell off a cliff), on 10th October Forsyth (when the share price was $8.20) sent out a note to remove Abano Healthcare from their 'conviction list', although they mentioned they were still positive on the stock and the same day released a report with a target price of $10.25.
Just under 6 months later the share price is $3.90 (and they, on 27th march 2019, now have a target price of $5.75)
A kick in the teeth all round.
Share price way back up ...maybe like the phoenix rising from the ashes
Attachment 10461
"way back up"? Looks like a very short way to me ;); I think the emphasis in your statement should be on the "maybe". Looks more like a flop than a Phoenix.
Anyway - still light years away from any confirmed trend change.
Just realised that analyst consensus dropped significantly since I last looked:
https://www.marketscreener.com/ABANO...85/financials/
Future revenue growth hardly keeping up with inflation and EPS predicted to be only in the upper 30 cents range. What is a no growth share with an average EPS of 38 cents worth? Remember - analysts are always over optimistic. A 3 handle might be here more appropriate than a 4 handle ...
A 2 yr chart tells it better.
Attachment 10462
Maybe more like a dead cat bounce.....their expansion by acquisition model is looking seriously flawed and while $4.00 maybe the bottom of the current cycle, any further bad news from this company could see further erosion.
I don't hold, and I wouldn't be rushing to buy ABA until there is much better news and the SP is on a more definite uptrend.GLH.
Been one hot stock the last few days
So it was cheap as below 4 bucks
Share price really racing down now. Wish I'd sold my meagre holding when I thought about it a year ago!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/336905
Trading update...Dividend shelved to 8cents from 20cents YOY...
The last paragraph is interesting...
Consolidation activity in the dental sector in Australia is ongoing. Abano has received various expressions of interest, which may offer strategic opportunities and value to shareholders. The Board will evaluate these and the company’s participation, as part of its ongoing review of strategy, asset mix and capital structure. There is no certainty that any expression of interest will lead to a proposal for shareholders to consider or to any transaction, either in respect of Abano itself or the company’s businesses....
One more shot by Healthcare partners???? at a reduced offer price?
Is this a turn-a-round story ?
Perhaps .
Maybe if they sold their complete Aussie business.
Selling bits will not achieve much.The NZ business is the better business,or more correctly, not as bad a business as the Aussie one.
I read between the lines some dentists are only working 2 or 3 days a week, and they need more/other dentists to use "the Chair" for the rest of the week.
Confirms to me dentists are over paid.
Nothing like keeping the takeover talk alive to support the share price
I don't wish to be contradictory, but.... 'Percy' thinks Dentists are overpaid.... 'whatsup' states that "pulling a tooth @ $3.80 a time, 15 minutes work.." ( $15.20 an hour!!!!)
That was in line with I got charged last time at Lumino. About $300-odd. They made a 45 min appointment and did it in 20 mins. Still got charged the same!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341554
Intriguing stuff...
that AFR article mentioned "For now, it looks like First NZ Capital-advised BGH is in the box seat to take Abano in full. The fact it has been granted exclusivity by Abano, which is advised by Rothschild and Cameron Partners, is a strong indication BGH’s offer is at a substantial premium to Abano’s trading price and worthy of endorsement by the board."
Well, the get out of jail card has arrived ...at $5.70
Not as good as the offer of a few years ago but still a relief for most of us.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...086/311570.pdf
This the same board who fought a couple of years ago against a takeover offer of more than $10 per share?
Not sure whether they will end up in the books as the most delusional board in NZ history (might be a draw with STU ..), but the directors clearly belong on the "never again" list ...
How likely is this deal going to go through?
Plateauing now for some time, but one year chart certainly does not look inspirational. My question today is however - did the analysts predict this underperformance one year ago?
ABA's shareprice peaked in February 2019 at $6.51 and analysts (consensus) forecast for February 2020 was $8.59, which means analysts predicted the SP to go up. They have been wrong - the ABA shareprice in February 2020 actually peaked at $5.39, i.e. instead of the forecasted rise of 32% did punters get a 17% drop. Ouch.
Looking into the consensus buy recommendation - it was in February 2019 an "Outperform"(7.5/10) - i.e. analysts said that the share will outperform the NZX. This prediction was wrong as well, while the NZX went up by 21% did ABA drop by 17% (i.e. ABA underperformed over the last 12 months the NZX50 by a woeful 38%.
Both consensus predictions (price as well as comparative performance to the NZX50) have been in this case clearly wrong and anybody relying on the analyst consensus in this case would have lost heaps of money.
I am doing this exercise as well with other NZX listed stocks - the overview is here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...arket-analysts
11 stocks checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus shareprice forecasts correct: 1/11; analyst hitrate: 9%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 3/11; analyst hitrate: 27%
Just noticed the announcement for the special meeting - looks like OIO happy and takeover will go ahead (obviously subject to SH approval).
Interesting is the notice re catering ... I suppose ABA will be in that regard a trailblazer for future Covid-19 SM's and AGM's:
No need anymore to join these meetings for the delicious food :), but who knows - maybe it is possible to pinch a bottle of hand sanitizer or two?Quote:
Given the unusual circumstances around COVID-19, Abano is taking precautionary measures for the meeting including:
Every attendee at the meeting will be required to provide their contact details
There will be access to hand sanitiser both outside and inside the meeting room
There will be no refreshments served before or after the special meeting in order to limit social contact amongst a large group of people.
Sign of the times ...
Virus making life hard for dentists ...and screwed up the takeover ....if it goes ahead it will be way less than $5.70
True, apparently - they are running out of masks. Horders bought them all up. Isn't it interesting to see the scum of humanity coming out of from under their rocks?
Still - not sure why it is that difficult for industry to ramp up mask production ... for sure - any marketing person worth their salt must have realized latest end of January that all sort of medical masks will be in high demand soon.
"• The Scheme Implementation Agreement with Adams NZ Bidco Limited has been terminated as a Material Adverse Change has occurred. Both parties have agreed they have no other liability to each other, as a result of the termination." NZX
Not sure I'd agree. Cheap does not mean that they are a good buy.
Their latest balance sheet (Nov 2019) looked already pretty unhealthy - lots of debts (debt to liabilities 68.5%) and the assets only hold up by plenty of quite questionable goodwill. Might be worth Zilch these days.
NTA is a big red number and current assets are minute (well, have been in November 2019 and I suppose they found little ways to increase their cash during the lock down).
Share price has been only holdup by the takeover promise .. and I see why the suitor (Bidco) decided to drop them like a hot potato - well, at the agreed price. They might get anything interesting much cheaper when they buy from the liquidator / receiver.
Not sure though whether there will be lots of fun for share holders, no matter how cheap they buy in.
I'm sure if shareholders said they will sell at $3 a share a takeover would happen in a heartbeart, thats enough of a safety net for me to start a position.
Though Harbour asset management really trying their best to sell this thing down.
Harbour Asset Mgmt:
3 April from 13.261% to 11.498%
7 April from 11.498% to 10.241%
15 April from 10.241% to 7.926%
16 April from 7.926% to 6.143%
I'm still expecting something to come from the takeover. I don't think they will walk away completely. Despite Harbour Asset Management selling down, there seems to be considerable support (rising nicely from the lows). If Bidco are still sniffing around for a lower-priced transaction, there's a decent premium still to be made here.
Good bye Habour Asset Mgmt
6.143% to 3.192%
If they have been selling down this crazy and the share price has still managed to go up, prepare yourself everyone it'll do just fine next week
Looks like the last game in town for people seeking gains on sold down stocks. Up over 10% each of the last two days with no slowing momentum.
Is anyone watching the movement of albano this morning. Wow up 10% early on and now coming crashing down below yesterday's close. Lots of profit takers out there.
There's been a bit of a game of one person putting a sell order on. Then someone putting a lower sell order. The the other cancelling and replacing a lower order. Rinse and repeat.
Just hit the bottom and the big seller has been gobbled up. Got what I wanted out of that after the nzx slow market transfer cost me my in the other day.
Like all things if it moves up quick some will be quick to take profit, especially some of the older holders.
Looks to have bottomed and buyers are accumulating.
Stock market 101 buy low sell high, it never changes
what was the reason for it to go up so much recently in this market? why dental industry??
I am expecting a mad rush to the dentists as soon as the lock down gets lifted(including me)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12326585
May be good news for Abano...
this recent announcement: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/351879 plus this snippet:
"while Bidco elected to terminate the Scheme, Bidco and its principals remain engaged with us and haveindicated that they are willing to explore whether there is an alternative potential transaction"
means the deal is not totally dead in the water.
my guess is another offer will come through.
It'll be way lower than the $5.70 though (which is fair in the current climate).
maybe something around $4 bucks?? would punters take this though?
Until 2020 it was a reliable dividend payer 21 cents per year and up...Dental industry is pretty solid usually one would think. SP at end of 2019 was 5.10 so accumulating at these prices doesnt seem like a bad idea if one believes that normality will resume at some point. Current buying at 2.42 , if dividend is back to normal in a year or so would mean 10% +/- dividend yield and or plus probable recovery in SP. maybe some of the reasons.
so what do we make of the recent spike in share price? confidence back in dental??
I wish I'd bought more, $2.80 put me at 100% gain.
Must be elimination and level 1?
This has been my best performing from my small portfolio. About 140% gain since I snapped them up in March. Could say that about a lot of shares I never purchased then but I can't complain
Why are people correlating share price movements to random little news events? You realise institutions buying and selling moves the share price right? not your speculation on level changes or how you think dental practices are affected.
There is also a large unfilled gap from a TA perspective probably being filled.
Does it bother you that much? You do realise that people comment on every thread about events that may or may not affect movements. Or is it because of the lack of posts by the likes of myself and the previous 2 posts that made you say that? Either way, your comment didn't help much.
Not really bothered, just surprised at some of the posts these days and I can't tell if it's people trying to ramp up their stocks on the board (not that retail investors would meaningfully change the price anyway) or if people genuinely think the price changes are directly related to news articles which happen to be posted on the same day as the stock price changes/around the same time.
I'll give you an example. DOW goes down, CNBC starts talking about how an article on X is the reason it went down today. DOW goes up CNBC talks about an article on X is the reason it went up today. Let's zoom out and realise markets fluctuate and the up and downs on those days were probably meaningless fluctuations, yet strong correlations are being made by these news agencies to sell content on a daily basis.
I actually don't even know why I bother to challenge this. Not like I can disprove anything anyway and you are free to think whatever you want
Did you know that Toothbrushes now have BlueTooth. I find that kind of amusing
Attachment 11657
Attachment 11656
No pun intended here, on the ABA thread?Quote:
Originally Posted by Cadalac123;820026
There is also [U
$3.56 now. Are we on our way back to the $5 pre-COVID levels? Maybe the much-anticipated transaction is getting close. Hold on tight!
Bought a very small amount of these at $1.40, kicking myself as I thought about buying 10x more at that price. >$5 would be nice in any case.
geez whats happening today?!
Last night's announcement + the Dow Jones falling 6.9% overnight = traders got spooked.
Many stocks heading up again now. My main ASX investment fell 15% today but has now recovered to be even for the day (glad I bought more near the day's lows).
Will be interesting to watch the DOW over the coming days. Futures up 1% as I write.
AFR's Street Talk Rumour mill suggests bidder back at table
However ABA caned AFR's speculation back in September 2019 on other rumours
What does Mr Market say ? Maybe .. or maybe not ?
takeover talk reignited. Shares in trading halt. What do we think the new offer could be?
Trading halt announcement refers to "speculation in the media this morning".
I've googled but came up blank. Does anyone have 'inside information' on what the media was speculating?
A post on the Sharesies Share Club facebook referred to a NBR report that negotiations between Australian private equity firm BGH Capital, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and NZX-listed dental practice operator Abano Healthcare are in full swing with a decision imminent on the latest takeover proposal
This came out last week - https://www.afr.com/street-talk/bgh-...0200611-p551i2
Negotiations fell through back in March so it looks like they're back again for another attempt
Trading halt now lifted, announcement mentions NBR article and potential offers at $3.00 or $3.25 per share.
Market not impressed, price fell from $3.30 before halt to $2.94 last check.
Me not impressed also, down so much from the earlier retracted offer, yet dental isn't exactly discretionary spending and should claw back COVID-19 impact.
Disc: nervous holder
Maybe this is the article in question: https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/abano-deal-returns-dead
According to Google it's from May 14th, but maybe it's had some updates today.
It's paywalled and they don't take ABA.NZ as payment, so I'm out of ideas.
There are 26,282,238 ABA shares on issue,which at $2.96 gives a market cap of $77,795,424.
Raising the required $50mil to $70mil, just to stay in business, will be difficult,so any takeover above the current share price will be appealing [and best outcome] for shareholders.
Ouch....saw on the newbies Facebook...plenty of them bought ABA ...reconk it was too cheap....pre covid $5 ish
Last capital raise a few years ago was well supported ...over $8 from memory.
Don’t want to sell the company do they ....hang in there long term adding shareholder value as they go
Not surprising they have rebuffed them, as SOA was at $5.70 previously, was accepted and come back a couple of months later at much lower price, post C19. Just now how much existing holders will like having to pony up something close to the current market cap in a capital raise! :scared:
This has dropped significantly over the last week, and looking at the release that may have caused it, there is nothing too bad in there.. It says we wont accept the low ball offer and will look at other funding options, but then it also says business is picking up very well.. yet it has dropped nearly 30%. I think this could be the 'bottom' and it returns to some form of normal around 3.00, which is a ~17% higher than today's price.. Anyone else have some thoughts? similar or to the contrary?
If you think the new normal is around 3 bucks go for it
But their financial performance over recent years speaks for itself and is reflected in what’s happened to the share price
Take on (acquire) more practices for diminishing returns seems to be their modus operandi
That puts me off them
Share price going well today ...hope you on board and not missing out.
Also the prospect of a capital raise.....which is near enough to the current market cap....;)
Sales growth gradually declining .... margins steadily declining .....diminishing returns on invested capital .... and as returns way below cost of covering cost of capital they are destroying economic value (value destrucyion in high finance)
That's why i find it hard to turn interest into real enthusiasm
Complexities are added to the scenario when you try investing in companies like ABA which are in the periaquisition timeline. Some had hopes of re-takeover offer being brought back to the plate probably, and with the contrary being recently suggested that might sway against the thoughts of some big holders.
Furthermore, you need to ask yourself how you're landing on your value of $3. How the market prices this isn't always going to correlate with historical prices. $3 could be a huge bargain or a overpriced value - I hope you aren't just looking at a gap on the chart and making a conclusion based on that (unless you like TA short-term trading which is heavily dependent on general market direction which isn't too great right now, if you were hoping for a gap fill play which tends to be led by a strong healthy uptrending market).
Growth in companies like ABA over time is also complicated and it's not a simple business structure.
ABA only good for short term trades I reckon ....taking the odd punt here and there.
I’ve mentioned why financials say not worth much. The chart also says why bother unless you are punter
ABA ...diminishing financial returns on capital ....and diminishing returns for share holders it seems
But heck ssbn go for it if you feel lucky......I have to keep telling myself NO NO winner not an ‘investment ‘ and punting for a quick buck ABA don’t appeal
Cadalac .... periaquisition is an interesting word
If they managed to destroy value during a boom, why invest during hard times?
Thanks all for the comments. Although I do my own research and have my own opinion, i'm also open enough to take on board options of others. That's the benefit of communities like this.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355364 - hopefully it is an improved offer.....
Good move putting that message out. It might get the two parties bidding against each other, and also draw out any other potential bidders.
Surprised that there's not much more discussion around these two competing bids. Isn't this the stuff of dreams for holders,? LoL
If this company was worth a buyout at $5.70 a share pre covid, it must still be worth say $3.85 mid covid?
Indeed, but the crowd who were prepared to pay $5.70 recently, & others, must be considering a revised offer, similar to MET.
ABA has already stated there are a couple of options come forward, apart from capital raising.
That's true, however from ABA's last announcement ABA implied that the current offers weren't attractive enough for them/for the shareholders, so the market assumes that they're prioritising on that capital raise for now. Although never say never, a more attractive bid may come later on :)