https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=5264284
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I'm sure this company has a chance at having a really bright future, but is it really necessary to post information that has no tangible valuable at all? Because it seems like any "positive" news AFT posts is speculation based
No tangible value? I think the recent announcement is a great news!
If a research company investigated and done a report about your company and products...saying your products are excellent and could easily double up or triple up sales in coming years....would u say....holy crap...Whatever.......???
I do note at the two chemist shops we shop at, AFT always have prominent displays of either Maxigesic or Crystaderm.
AFT have actually said the same thing ""AFT will be making no further comment on the DelveInsight report," Dr Atkinson said."
He doesn't care... the product is great, the sales are rolling in, the potential is huge... but the founder, CEO and 75% shareholder that is Dr Atkinson is firmly focused on the hear and now... BUT rather than risk getting a slap from the NZX, best just to mention that yes AFT are aware of it.
One thing that is for sure: it certainly isn't bad news!
its a great piece of news and a great piece of marketing all tied up into one.
Important to know of the independence of this research because as Cad points out this news about the size of a potential market is a common thread in AFT's announcements, which I do find a bit spurious actually. But SSAS companies use it and I dont think you're ever going to get pinged doing it so there it goes... as mcduffy says take it or leave it.
I was looking at the wider suite of products that AFT prouce last night - a lot more than just maxigesic - https://www.aftpharm.com/products/ and I know they make eye drops coz I bought some. As my Dad would say everything for coughs, colds, and sore holes.
Attachment 10956
https://www.edisongroup.com/publicat...to-fy20/25644/
Can't believe I missed this all the way back in November of last year... AFT $5.53 price target they say
It might be just me, but I fail to remember any example where Edison got it right. Do you?
I do remember however companies like e.g. CRP and PEB - both had (and PEB still has) amazing Edison reports, but look what they did so far with shareholder funds.
Edison is paid for producing optimistic (often incredibly optimistic) reports (otherwise the companies ordering these reports would go to somebody else), and this is what they do.
Why do you think it will be different for AFT?
Oh dear The Bear thought it was quite a helpful report :mellow: oh well lesson learned ;)
There is no doubt they got it wrong on PEB and CRP (which by the way are very, very different companies to AFT - namely that AFT has actually been profitable for most years it has been around) but Edison research thousands of companies, I don't think they have got it wrong all the time (like you would seem to imply - that every company they have covered has only given shareholders very poor returns).
I am well aware they are paid (and this is noted on the report itself so everyone should be aware of this), but I am not sure on any institution producing research that isn't paid or and/or given exclusivity and/or benefits (financial or non financial) in one way or another (whether it is a fee from the company directly, or via institutional days, or via brokerage itself from the buying and selling of the company in question).
I never said AFT was different, nor did I say it was the same as PEB or CRP... just that Edison have come up with $5.53 price target (and that one can read into that any way they would like)
At the end of the day, I feel it is interesting to see there views and ideas... and I would say $5 by November of this year is not 'optimistic', rather, actually quite achievable - time will tell either way.
Just be aware that there is a difference between licensed and registered......licensed allows a company to have the rights to sell but you need registration to allow them to actually sell into that country. AFT DON,T HAVE MANY REGISTRATIONS AND THESE TAKE 2 TO THREE YEARS TO ACHIEVE...oops cap lock on...they do have $us 42 million loans at 13.5% but are in process of changing this to major nz bank at much lower rate this March, so even no more sale,s they still will increase bottom line by 3 or 4 million dollars, so not all bad....sold out at $3.40 but kicking self ever since....did same with A2 milk and xreo so I never learn
I did neither say nor imply that Edison gets it always wrong. Just said that I am not aware of a case where they got it right - despite having seen some of their reports for various NZ companies (including above examples). Different things :);
Assuming you are holder - how do you feel about the equity ratio of 17.5% (HY2020)? While this is an improvement to previous years (in 2017 it was 8%, I think). I guess these are numbers you normally would expect from a bank, but not from a pharma company?
Actually - it is worse, just noticed that heaps of the hardly existing assets are "intangible". NTA is actually a negative number - just lets hope the auditors got that intangible value right - shall we?
Not sure I see the high IP value, given that the patent for their Maxigese is based on something doctors knew and applied (and continue to apply) already for decades (mixing Paracetamol and Aspirin). Not really rocket science ... but I do see a debt load which would kill most companies if even small things would not go to plan.
Just noticed - there is a "going concern assumption" in the HY report. Didn't further investigate their loan situation, but this is something I would do as a holder ... ah yes, but comforting that the directors are confident they can raise more money if needed - well, that's what they say in the report :);
Just curious - how are things going in securing a continuation of this bank loan beyond 31. March? Does anybody know?
Anyway - nough said. Not my cup of tea, but I am sure all share holders thoroughly analysed the risks and potential benefits and are happy with the return for the risk they take based on the current SP and balance sheet.
All very valid questions.
Almost all of your questions are balance sheet related (nothing on growth rates or cash flows or how the company generates its income, or perhaps the history of the company and how it has dealt with very trim balance sheets its entire life, starting with just $20k cash the late 90's, yet now turning over $100m annually)
I am not too 'worried'/concerned' about intangibles or NTA for a growth company, I'm more worried about how the company generates its income aka that it has a good product (and I suppose they have a 'simple' product, but sometimes simple products are the best) and that they are selling more and more of that product (aka growth), and cash flows are coming through the door... Enron had a really innovative product, so innovative and so new and fantastic (a bit like rocket science?) that nobody else could understand what was happening... I'm glad AFT is not an Enron (although AFT might one day get to the size Enron did, just not end in the same way ;) ).
Not too fused about the 'going concern assumption', 88% of the stock is owned by 2 fiercely loyal shareholders (1 of them being the founder - even higher percent if you count other managers) who are happy to contribute cash in one way or another - so when they say they are confident they can raise the cash, I am quite sure they could!
Negotiations going well with the banks they say.
It will certainly be interesting to see how AFT goes, and I'm (so far) glad to be involved since the IPO back in 2015 (topping up periodically in the low $2's)
Edison did cover SEA...and look at SEA now.....
https://www.afr.com/companies/health...0200211-p53zsp
Look at the blackmores result... an absolute disaster as a result of trying to control more of the supply chain...
nice trading update made the share price jump just now
Dr Hartley Atkinson said: "As news of the Covid-19 outbreak emerged at the start of this year, we moved quickly to significantly build stocks of our key medicines in Australasia and we have been rewarded for this foresight. "By way of example, we sold $1.2m of Vitamin C Liposachets in New Zealand over 3 days alone which represented our prior 12 months sales.
Market slow toi catch on, year end should be at the upper mid range of its recent guide lines.
it has been one of the steadiest in my portfolio , only today was there some infection but it seems selling $1.2M worth of Vitamin C has fixed it !! ;+)
I did say before that this company would benefit from increased demand for health products even though none of their products fix Corona virus specifically.
Yeah except they’ve implied supply chain disruption and with their “crazy” sales guidance the exact same
vs NZX50 and SUM
Attachment 11105
(without todays +10 )
Well done holders...... seems it is not all doom and gloom.
FPH holding up well too.
Interesting .... French authorities warn against taking any anti inflammatory medication when infected with Coronavirus.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020...ance-drug.htmlQuote:
PARIS — France's health minister on Saturday said people should not use anti-inflammatory drugs if they have coronavirus-like symptoms because it could worsen their condition.
"Taking anti-inflammatory drugs (ibuprofen, cortisone ...) could be an aggravating factor for the infection. If you have a fever, take paracetamol," Oliver Veran said on Twitter.
But hey - nothing new here - doctors are warning patients with fever already for decades against taking anti-inflammatories (like e.g. Aspirin). Anti-inflammatories depress the immune system which is the last thing anybody with a virus (be it the new or any old boring flu virus) would want.
AFT's amazing drug is just a mixture of Aspirin and Paracetamol - isn't it? Which would make it quite unsuitable (and even dangerous) for anybody infected with this new virus.
Maybe not the silver bullet against the current hype. Better not to tell customers.
So if this advice has been around for decades then Maxigesic sales trajectory probably won't change much (aka still keep growing nicely)... however, as the recent NZX announcement outlined (when reading between the lines), it wasn't really about Maxigesic (1 product) sales... it was about their other products, for example (but not limited to) they sold $1.2m worth of a vitamin C product that they would usually sell annually... in 3 days!
But do they just have Maxigesic and Vitamin C Liposachets (aka 2 products)? No! AFT have over 130 products (I suggest you have a look around https://www.aftpharm.com/). Interestingly, in 2015 IPO documents, it was mentioned not 1 product contributed more than 9.2% of operating revenue, it is probably similar-ish today (aka I doubt Maxigesic = 50% of operating revenue)... just puts it into perspective how diversified AFT really are. So yes, I know you (and probably most people) think of "AFT = Maxigesic" (or at least your post above would seem to indicate this, and fair enough - this is probably their most well known 'achievement), but they are far from a 1 trick pony... in fact they have over 130 'other tricks' right now to rely on (including, and I assume you missed this, just selling Paracetamol! https://www.aftpharm.com/products/no...e-paracetamol/ - a big seller in Aussie they say, probably even bigger now!)
AFT, with its diverse portfolio of established, well-recognized products across a wide range of therapeutic categories marketed to all major distribution channels, will almost certainly benefit from coronavirus - the big issue however is if they can source and ship product fast enough, but hey at least they will be clearing inventory fast!
I reckon there is a good chance they'll beat their upper end estimate and get say $22m operating profit - that would put AFT on a PE of 15x (and probably a price to revenue ratio of about 3... what was that other growth stock SKO at? something like 15x?? and with no NPAT in sight???)... not bad for a company likely to grow at least in the double digits for the years to come and with positive operating cash flows and profits.
a good reminder TJ
I had highlighted this earlier in the thread and certainly a good time to be promoting this stock, their will still be some money looking for an equity home that might benefit from this crisis. There are always some winners.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350413
Great stuff - probably being a bit conservative and we'll see profit very close, maybe even slightly above $21.8m.
This announcement also shows (a bit more) how diverse their product range is - far from just maxigesic tablets... oh and also:
https://www.sudbury.com/beyond-local...xperts-2183264
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/wh...virus-symptoms
Share price should be going up in this environment, instead it is 10% below where it was a month ago.
a bit over a week after I posted that and its no surprise to me AFT is going up and up... fundamentals of the business are good in any times, but particularly interesting in times like these... AFT now just a few cents off hitting all time highs... probably not many other companies in the same boat today (if any?)
And to think this time last year we were below $2 and heading towards $1.70... the doom and gloom was all on over at the AFT thread then... many, many things have changed since this time last year, and I'm sure not many would have thought AFT would go up 132% since then to the $3.95 its on today.
Quietly, tj. Don't jinx it!
:cool:
New ATH of $4.02 sign of things to come !
would you look at that - first time finishing above $4 and a fresh all time high.
AFT certainly has its place in a diversified portfolio I suppose... just a shame none of the big brokers really cover it, otherwise would probably be pumped to at least the mid $5's by now (which is funnily enough where Edison last had its target price - a target price that was ripped apart by others on this thread as, basically, being stupid... but $5.53 sometime in the next 12 months is looking less and less 'stupid' by the day really)
Great stuff.
I had a bid in at 3.07 not that long ago. I should've just hit 3.09. C'est la vie :sleep:
Why is the liquidity of this stock so poor?
Tightly held by founding shareholders
72964942 shares (72.50%)
Colin MCKAY
C/-16 Brett Ave, Takapuna, Auckland , New Zealand
Hartley ATKINSON
16 Brett Av, Takapuna, Auckland , New Zealand
Top 10 own
https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/...Dnb7V7uC66AAAA
up 4% today @ $4.16
I think it has very real potential to go considerably higher. Its in the right sector at the moment, and still has plenty of room to grow. I would think $5.50 is easily achievable in the next few months.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/351363
The opposite of bad news that is for sure... probably $4.50 by the end of this week, what a Good Friday that would be!
Might have to move my $5 by the end of this year target forward, $10 in about 4 years time still well on track.
Its often the ones that aren't price sensitive that have a whole lot of Easter Eggs in them!
Share price is now $4.32... I had a thought, at just over $420m market cap, is this the biggest company outside the NZX 50?
On track to be a half a billion dollar company by the end of the year they say.
Slipping... now $4.23... nearly on the buy radar.
Probably the best value stock on the NZX right now if it was to drop below $4.
WHY has AFT lost approx. $1.00 ; 20% in the last few days ?
I find it extremely hard to value AFT. To be fair there has been an improvement in figures , however after the 9.8mil or so gain from IP rights to pascomer I think the results got heavily inflated and makes me question whether they can repeat that level without getting the one off IP gain again.
That said if pascomer trial goes well it’ll be great but that’s like punting on any biotech if you buy it just for that.
Amazing that this time last year hit an all time low of $1.70, and what a bizarre day... I was trying to stay silent in the hope it would quickly fall to around $3.50, but instead finished in the green - up over 8% since the low point.
BlackPeter - what's not to like about a company likely to grow EPS (adjusted) by 10-20%pa for the coming years, whilst on an underlying PE of about 33 for FY20 (excluding $9.8m one off gain). And before you say a PE of 33 is expensive, I look at FPH (a company with similar growth rates, probably lower than AFT over the coming years however) trading at something like nearly 70x PE - so AFT is cheap really! From FY21, there'll be a saving of $2m annually on interest costs, so EPS growth rate likely to be even higher than 20% from FY20 to FY21. FY21 underlying profit could be around $16m quite easily - at today's price that would put AFT on a forward PE of just 25.
For a company likely to grow significantly, underlined by strong yet diversified IP and product range... it is hard not to have shares in AFT when it is on a forward PE of just 25.
Haven't even begun to consider the prospect of a takeover, or if the insto's jump in on this and start the real ramp...
I hold both FPH and AFT but to compare the latter with the former, at this stage, well...…………!
:ohmy:
FPH is clearly a well managed and profitable high tech company with lots of valuable IP. I still think that they are too dear at this stage ... and expect their price to fall back after the COVID bubble to return to the median. Clearly a good company to hold if you bought them at the right price.
AFT is a small pharmaceutical company with no moat worthwhile mentioning. They don't even produce their products locally, but are as dependent on Indian and Chinese factories as everybody else in the business. They don't control these factories, but are only one out of many clients getting their products there contract manufactured. As a consequence are their products neither better, nor more reliable sourced than any competing products. AFT are basically just another distributor of health products with often questionable benefits (e.g. the vitamin range). Their only significant IP is the idea to mix panadol and aspirin in one tablet (instead of getting the patients to take one tablet each), and this is anyway not a cure but just a painkiller. Not really breathtaking IP and easy to avoid.
I know they sell a lot of other stuff for the supermarket "health shelve" - but so can anybody else.
Not sure what they would be worth if they manage to become profitable (they haven't been for the last 6 years), but even if the predicted EPS of something like 18 cents average over the next three years is true - why would anybody want to pay more than say $1.5 to $2 for such a share?
But hey - you clearly foresee a stellar up leg for this company and it certainly did went up a bit. Question is just ... when do they run out of hype fuel and gravity starts pulling the SP back to the fundamentals?
Good time to raise capital and reduce expensive debt??
Many companies doing so currently and many more are preparing for the same..
Hey BP
I think you understimate the value of the licensing and registration of its products in the large number of countries that AFT has acquired , and the time and skill necessary to obtain those .
The share price has clearly been driven by demand , not hype, as the price has been rising for quite a while now on increasing volume too.
You might be right that the share price is starting to get a little optimistic but we will see over time how sales and profitability increase. I am not releasing mine just yet.
Big volume went through at $4.00, biggest in the near 4.5 years AFT has been listed. Average volume for AFT is around 37k shares traded a day, so far nearly 1.3 million shares have changed hands.
Wonder who was selling and who was buying before results in less than 2 weeks time.
While everybody is busy talking about the metlife takeover, I decided to scroll back 4 pages and post on here.
The panic slide towards $4 seems to have well and truly reversed... AFT was the best performer on the NZX main board, with a bit above average volume going through (for AFT)... not far off an all time high (one of the few companies in NZ to be in such a position I would imagine) and with the full year results to be released Wednesday morning, the exciting times continue.
Certainly will be interesting,seeing whether they are pharmacy or retail.
My local chemist told me his retail business is dead.
I'm sure the report tomorrow will be good, but the liquidity is beyond ridiculous you can't even have a large holding without having a low chance of exiting it all.. maybe that will change tomorrow with a good report. Here's to hoping.
Wow, great results really, and in an uncertain environment today, AFT is forecasting underlying operating profit to rise between 23 and 58 percent.
Taking the midpoint of that, AFT is trading on a FY21 price to underlying profit of 28 and likely to grow at 20% plus for the next few years I reckon. This combined with strong operating cash flows and a strong track record (with an operating revenue CARG of 14% over the past decade) results in AFT, even on a price to underlying profit of 28, being cheap in the mid $4. I therefore move my $5 target price forward from November to this week.
A true growth company indeed, probably the only one on the NZX that is somewhat reasonably priced as well.
$4.98 at the open, probably $5+ by the end of the day.... was $3 in March, and $1.70 a bit over a year ago.
Nice little pop up to $5-00 .
.... And after high (for AFT) volume of 52k shares, and a VWAP of $4.89, AFT is back down to the open price. Not ideal the NZX 50 itself is down, but still - I'm surprised.
After today's impressive result, with good guidance, it is hard not to be tempted in the mid $4's (as mentioned previously)
that is surprising eh TJ (that price falls back ) but we all know the stockmarket buys the rumour and sells the fact
but no matter the market, the result was pretty good , I particularly like the way that they had expanded the medical maxigesic from 3 to 128 countries. Not sure how that translates but sounds full of potential.
However for the record I sold recently prior to all this @4.20 (my favourite number ) but may look to buy in again if price falls too far back.
I have a great psychological failing that I find it virtually impossible to buy a share for more than I sold it for. which is an emotional response not a rational one.
Solid result, interesting the expansion on maxigesic. Might be one to put in the drawer and hold for a few years.
Honestly TJ not a bad report at all and operating profit guidance is decent but Jesus it’s like it takes one 5000$ sell to make the price move down 10 percent
Another positive announcement. I am bullish on this one. Market doesn't seem to agree with me though.
I'm bullish too on the announcement. Came in at open and bought more on the way down.
Posted twice
The announcements are fine, the valuation and share issues are deviating any real price action and making this a horrible stock. Who wants to buy with such horrible liquidity? You can't buy large parcels and not expect to sell with heavy dilution. Will just need to wait till an institution pumps it or more shares are floated
It has begun folks... Forsyth Barr have added AFT to their coverage... watch this space.
Another SPP first for AFT since listing , yummee !
Yesterday Forsyth started coverage, then today we hear about a selldown... I'm not surprised at all about a sell down and this will significant increase liquidity (almost tripling free float), helping push the share price higher than ever before, and putting it a step closer to entering the NZX 50.
AFT has done a SPP before whatsup... Back in March 2017 they did one (at less than half of where the share price is today).
Forsyth probably going to give a target price now, I reckon mid $5's... a year ago the share price was $3.00.
Final price probably going to be a good chunk above $3.65... exciting stuff.
3.65$ wow I bet all the shareholders are estatic about this
Amazing - how altruistic and nice of them they sell lots of shares down to increase liquidity. These big share holders are really just thinking about the benefit of the wee guys - don't they?
Just trying to remember previous sell downs in order to support the wee retail shareholders:
CBL insurance (sell down somewhere around $2.40 - now worthless)
OCA (sell down at $1.10 and later at $1.20)
TRA (sell down from memory somewhere around $1.90)
Trilogy - partial sell down well above the later takeover price
While two of the examples are still around and at least one of them (OCA) might do long term really well - In all cases would shareholders have done much better if they would have sold at sell down time and picked up some shares later.
Ignore at your peril if big share holders sell out ....
Discl: neither short nor long ...
CRG was always going to sell out - but not at $2 or $3, and possibly not at sub $4 either.
The founder still owns 69%, when taking into account other management shareholdings, this is in excess of 70% - I don't know of any of those companies above that have a founder/management owning well in excess of 2/3rds of the business with a founder still with the business since day 1 (over 20 years ago) topped off by the fact this business has grown virtually entirely organically since day 1 (not a roll up or via acquisitions)... a big (ish) sell down by somebody is almost overdue in some ways!
So yes, I would confidently say "this time is different" to all of the examples you have provided above, in fact, I reckon it is borderline insulting comparing this sell down to those company's sell downs.
Nice that retail shareholders get a bite at cheap shares via the SPP (not just a big placement to insto's with almost nothing left for other shareholders) - and given I doubt the founder and CRG will be participating via the SPP, it should be able to be shared around nicely.
Actually - the situation around CBL Insurance (large holding for many years of the people establishing the company, and still large holding of board / owners left after the sell down) was quite similar.
But hey - I am not saying that AFT is the same as CBL insurance ... and no intention to hurt anybody's feelings. Just observing and noticing that your posts frequently seem to lack some balance.
It just feels that AFT is already quite dear with a forward PE of 30 and a Revenue CAGR around 14%. Markets rarely value growth during bear markets - and this is what I expect to knock quite soon at our doors.
I guess time will tell, whether it was this time the down sellers or (as usually) the buyers who got the wrong end of the stick ... but anyway, good luck with your holding.
This is a free forum, isn't it?
I absolutely welcome your or anybody's comments... but I believe they are sometimes misinformed (or come across that way)... like thinking Maxigesic is the only product AFT do (or at least this is what it sounded like you were saying) or comparing sell downs of other companies, when this one is very, very different... hence not really that relevant to make the point made, but I still do appreciate balance to my bullish views, if it is 'valid'.
AFT is dear, and I look forward to FPH falling to the mid teen's in such a market!
I have asked my Craigs broker to reserve shares for me should they receive any in the placement.He does not know whether they will get any at this stage.
Always impressed with their product displays in chemist shops I visit.Always by the counter in prime positions.
Their Crystaderm is great for small skin issues.Even keep an extra tube in the car.
The offer through Jarden was for bids from $3.65 up to a maximum strike from of $3.90. Will wait and see if I was successful
Issued at $3.75 - not bad at all. Welcome new shareholders, exciting to have a few more Aussies interested and on board... bit like XRO, they probably understand AFT a bit better than NZ shareholders do (and value it accordingly)... after all, AFT's biggest market is Australia.
I'll be participating in the SPP at $3.75.
I tendered in the placement at $3.65 and $3.75. Now to see if I get any, otherwise the SPP!
I got scaled back to 45% of what I bid for. The final strike price was not a limiting factor in the scaling for me as my bid price was 'at strike' up to the $3.90 maximum price
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354820
Nice to see the Chairman buying a decent chunk more.