Given the state of play with the gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, I suspect that neither Russia nor Turkey would be averse to a "frozen conflict" or some mayhem and madness (or even both in the Caucasus.
Printable View
Finally some excellent local appearing commentary simply summarising for New Zealanders
what has been going on in North East Asia, from someone who knows what he's talking about...
The shifting sands of China's world view
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/123172810/the-shifting-sands-of-chinas-world-view
Whether the following is true or not, the US election & its aftermath represents a critical period of heightened risk re Taiwan...
US ratchets up China overflights: report
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/us-rat...lights-report/
China shocked to discover the developed world views it in a negative light (for those with VPNs anyway...)
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/10/27/commentary/world-commentary/china-developed-world-negative-sentiment/
A more nuanced view on approaching Chinese relations (of which Trump is incapable of...)
China’s Inexorable Rise to Superpower Is History Repeating Itself
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-not-an-ascent
U.S. and India to sign defense pact amid China border standoff
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...se-pact-china/
In Indonesia, Trump envoy presses case against China
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/in...29-p569qq.html
More on non-aligned Indonesia...
Vaccines, not spy planes: U.S. misfires in Indonesia
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...virus-vaccine/
Opinion 1: China PRC viewpoint as relatively benign:
"China is not a threat to US liberty or democracy"
China is no friend to liberal ideology but beyond empty slogans it has no real ambition to export its authoritarian model
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/china-...-or-democracy/
Opinion 2: China PRC viewpoint as simply aggressive:
"China doesn’t want deals, it wants global domination"
The next US commander-in-chief must recognize and react to the fact he is in an epochal battle with the Middle Kingdom
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/china-...al-domination/
China's PRC stability vs Western contestibility:
"As many countries struggle to plan weeks ahead, China just set its agenda for the next 15 years"
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/28/a...hnk/index.html
Chinese, U.S. military chiefs hold crisis communication, says China defence ministry
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN27E1XJ
Once unimaginable, some now debating return of U.S. forces to Taiwan
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...-taiwan-china/
Dispite the bland reaurrances from the Marxist-Lennists in the celestial kingdom President Xi may be mindfull of the the playwright Shakespeares observations and advice to ruthless despots.
"Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown"
"Busy giddy minds with foreign quarrels"
If Xi's crown comes under threat there is a danger he will take the playwrights advice in line two.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Close to home...
Xi says it's 'ill-advised to hurt the interests of others' as Australia braces for $6 billion hit
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/xi...05-p56btq.html
Australia getting burned by its anti-China policies
https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/austra...hina-policies/
“ China is set to narrowly miss a previous goal of doubling GDP in the decade to 2020, as the economy needs to grow at least 5.6% this year to hit that target. The economy could grow just over 2% this year.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSKBN27J1K9
Perhaps Biden can unwind the Tech-war geopolitical risk if he takes the Senate...
Exploding the myth of Huawei’s 5G security risk
https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/explod...security-risk/
An interim state of affairs while the US returns to "normality" under Biden
International disorder: Post-election realities for Japan and allies of the U.S.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/11/05/commentary/world-commentary/post-election-realities-japan-us-allies/
Biden might de-escalate China tech war
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/biden-might-de-escalate-china-tech-war/
Can Biden restore America’s global reputation?
https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/can-bi...al-reputation/
Biden faces monumental task of rebuilding trust on global stage
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...nder-in-chief/
While the US rebuilds its credentials after Trump
Japan’s Growing Centrality to Regional Maritime Security
By Richard Javad Heydarian | October 7, 2020
https://amti.csis.org/japans-growing-centrality-to-regional-maritime-security/
Russia deploys troops to Nagorno-Karabakh after ceasefire deal announced
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKBN27Q06G
It's finally happened...
Beijing gives up on even the pretense of allowing opposition in Hong Kong
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/11/a...hnk/index.html
Trump’s National Security Advisor Warns China on Hong Kong
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-11/trump-s-national-security-advisor-warns-china-on-hong-kong?srnd=premium-asia
Excerpt:
While the U.S. has imposed sanctions against Lam and some officials in Beijing, it has so far held off punishing the country’s senior hierarchy. Such a move would infuriate Beijing and accelerate a deterioration in relations between the two nations on a variety of issues.
Xi challenges Biden with move to snuff out Hong Kong opposition
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...den-hong-kong/
As things currently stand...
Australia on edge as China’s trade threats bite
https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/austra...-threats-bite/
Trump’s refusal to concede harms US soft power
https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/trumps...us-soft-power/
You can find the odd insight here. . .
https://www.lawfareblog.com/
'If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy': Beijing's fresh threat to Australia
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/if...18-p56fqs.html
......with a free media.............
https://www.smh.com.au/national/aust...15-p55c6a.html
".......the government is still pursuing barrister Bernard Collaery in the courts over claimed breaches of intelligence secrecy
laws in relation to an operation in Dili in 2004, when the Howard government spied on and bugged Timor-Leste officials’ private
discussions about maritime boundary negotiations – to give Australia the upper hand."
https://www.theguardian.com/media/20...committee-told
"The committee focused on two bills: the proposed changes to national security laws, which could see journalists and
whistleblowers jailed for up to 20 years and the foreign influence transparency scheme bill, which would require
those who under take political, campaigning or lobbying activities “on behalf of foreign principals” to sign up to
a public register. Federal police admit to accessing journalist's metadata without a warrant.
The national security reforms would increase tenfold the maximum penalty for anyone who communicates or “deals with”
information which could potentially “cause harm to Australia’s interests,” where that information is obtained via
a government official without authorisation.
The government says the new laws are about countering the influence of foreign states such as China and Russia,
and the outgoing attorney general, George Brandis, has said the new laws have been necessitated by an unprecedented
level of interference in Australian politics by foreign actors.
But the proposal includes major changes to secrecy laws that could potentially be applied to journalists and
organisations such as WikiLeaks by including information that prejudices international relations “in any way” or
damages relations between the federal government and a state."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/progr...il-journalists
"Australia's biggest news media companies have united to fight new national security laws that could criminalise
reporters and their sources. Peter Greste - who knows all about being jailed for journalism - tells Mediawatch
New Zealand should take notice too."
..........talk directly in a constructive fashion about Australia’s relationship with China.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/quad-i...y-foundations/
"Beijing lays claim to some islands in the East China sea to which some other Asian nations also lay claim.
But, then, so too does Taiwan. The total area of the islands claimed by Taiwan but contested by other Asian
nations is far greater than that of those claimed by Beijing.
This was in effect also the 2016 conclusion of the UN tribunal set up to consider rival claims. And if we go back
into history, or to the US-brokered 1951 and ’52 peace treaties with Japan, both Chinas can claim some legal basis
for their claims.
Beijing’s opposition to Japan’s claim to the Senkaku Islands in the East China sea is also seen as proof of aggressiveness.
But Beijing does not claim the islands for itself; it does so on behalf of Taiwan, whose claim has a strong historic and
geographic basis. In fact, it was so strong that under pressure from the Taiwan lobby in the US, Washington refused
Japan’s claim to sovereignty over the Senkaku islands when the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa were returned to Japan in 1971.
The US only recognizes Japan’s administrative rights.
Even the name of the islands is not Japanese. Senkaku is a translation of the name Pinnacle Islands given by British explorers
in the area in the 18th century. The Chinese name – Diaoyutai or Fishing Platform – goes back much farther.
Elsewhere, it is hard to find examples of China’s alleged aggressiveness. There is much reference to the Sino-Indian frontier
war of 1962 and Indian claims of Chinese aggressive pressure ever since.
Apart from the fertile imaginations of the Quad members, have we seen proof of Beijing’s alleged aggressiveness?
If there is any belligerent talk coming out of Beijing today the most likely cause is the belligerent attitudes of the Quad members."
The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hard-line faction
(Source withheld)
Excerpts:
Naturally, while internally Xi has been shown to be weak and even culpable for the bungled management of WuHan virus in the first stage, Xi has only international stage that he could show his own strength to shore up his own position.
I personally am happy for Xi to remain president of China for his hard-line approach will continue to alienate China from the rest of the world. This will lead to more self-reliance policies and measures within the economies of the west and regions outside China.
1) President Xi was a compromise choice for the presidency between the two main factions of CCP, both, btw, are moderate factions.
2) In 2013, Bao Xilai's wife murdered a British national and Bao was arrested for corruption and purged from CCP. Bao was a senior Politburo member and had ambition to be the president of China. He happened to have led a small but hard-line faction in Chonqing where he was the mayor- Chongqing is a huge city with the status of a province.
3) Xi had no power base within CCP moderate factions. After Bao's fall, Xi basically inherited Bao's hardline faction. Since then, Xi's policies have been reflections of this hard-line faction.
4) Former president Jiang and the current premier are the leaders of the largest Shanghai faction in CCP. Former President Hu and his premier Wen are the leaders of the other main moderate faction.
5) In 1996, Jiang let the hardline faction have their way firing missiles near Taiwan only to show the weakness of Chinese military, and, hence the folly of the hard-line faction within CCP.PLA.
6) Xi's policies and measures internally and externally have been parts of the struggle with the two main moderate factions.
7) COVID-19 of course was Xi's mishandling in the first place. He despatched the premier to WuHan in early February. But the premier knew it was a trap so his people cleverly issued an old photo of him supposedly working hard on the COVID-19. A few days later, he quit the responsibility of managing COVID-19 after the photo was 'found' to have been a 7 year old photo.
8) For the next few weeks, Xi could not force any of the Politburo members or any minsters to WuHan to take charge. The mayor of WuHan was left to swim or sink.
9) Only till the end of March, Xi sent his own protege, the health minister, to take charge of WuHan virus matter. Before this, it was clear that Xi and his protege were trying to protect themselves.
10) In mid April, the health minister came back to BeiJing from WuHan. Within 2 weeks, he was arrested for breaching party disciplines. That is, he has been purged from CCP.
11) For Xi to lose his own protege, it could only mean one or both of two things. Xi had lost so much power due to COVID-19 mishandling by himself and his protege. that he could not protect his own protege. Or Xi was wiling to sacrifice his own protege to save his own skin. Either way, Xi's position within CCP itself was and remains very much insecure.
12) Naturally, while internally Xi has been shown to be weak and even culpable for the bungled management of WuHan virus in the first stage, Xi has only international stage that he could show his own strength to shore up his own position.
13) Attacking China for mishandling COVID-19 in a way has given Xi breathing space for Xi has been exploiting it to show his toughness against foreign interventions.
14) The HK matter, also, in a way, has allowed Xi to show his hard-line faction's way is the only way to manage HK.
15) Due to COVID-19 impacting badly on domestic economy, the Chinese premier has advocated policies and measures that often are openly repudiated by Xi with alternative directives. Traditionally, domestic economy is the domain of the premier.
16) Xi is now riding a tiger that he could not jump off. The two main moderate factions would never take him back (he had been a member of the main moderate Shanghai faction as with his own father who had been in charge of the creation of ShenZen special economic zone just over the border from HK). Given the COVID-19 rampage in US, it is obvious why Xi's daughter has gone back to US where she has finished her university studies already.
17) I personally am happy for Xi to remain president of China for his hard-line approach will continue to alienate China from the rest of the world. This will lead to more self-reliance policies and measures within the economies of the west and regions outside China.
18) On the other hand, if the west wants to have a more moderate leadership within CCP/PLA/China and Helen a less aggressive CCP/PLA, there is one simple way to approach this.
19) Stop giving President Xi access to international forums. BRIC counties, if possible, should stop conveying. India and Brazil should be persuaded for such. ASEAN nations should stop their invitations of China and hence Xi to its meetings. ASEAN nations could be persuaded by US. Australia and EU for doing this. APAC also should cease to operate to stop Xi from getting platform in conveying his messages.
20) All western democracies as well as Korea, Japan and SE Asia nations should not invite Xi or refuse Xi visiting their countries, full stop.
21) Further, sending back all Chinese diplomats that have air unwarranted hostile remarks against western countries back to China and blacklist them from being accepted for other posts (diplomatic, trade or commercial enterprises) in the west.
22) By isolating/excluding Xi from international forums, Xi could not use international stages to shore up his own position in the struggles within CCP.
23) BTW, by not taking phone calls from Aussie ministers is similar to my suggestions of excluding Xi from international forums, but against Australia instead.
24) Also ban all Chinese social sites in the west across the board. Ban Global Times (CCP's mouth piece in the west) from operating within the west altogether.
25) CCTV's international arms have YouTube channels. As long as China has banned YouTube, its own government and state owned enterprises should not be allowed to have channels on YouTube either. (I would miss some of the good programmes, but some are nothing but with CCP/PLA propaganda, lol)
26) To fight Xi, we could do nothing in the west and let the 2 main moderate factions do their own works to bring down Xi and his hard-line faction. Or we can also be hard-line against Xi himself too.
From the language/style of the source I think this maybe from a draft notes of a last report for a Tour of Duty due to end soon ( July3 2014~ Dec30 2020)
Look forward to reading final report if it gets published.
Replacement researcher needed do you think?
Apply here: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/china-f...plication-form
https://www.smh.com.au/national/chin...11-p56dln.html
"China is following a belligerent foreign policy which singles out countries such as Australia for punishment, as examples to other
governments. Australia’s "offence"? Simply put: passing laws aimed at protecting the political system against Chinese Communist Party
interference, launching freedom of navigation exercises in the international waters of the South China Sea through which the bulk of
Australian shipping passes and daring to ask the Xi government to examine the origins of the COVID-19 outbreak that unleashed the
devastating global pandemic. ............"
"Xi is taking China backwards, restoring foreign affairs policies from the two most repressive periods of the Mao era — 1949 to 1952,
when Mao’s policies squeezed out foreign businesses, journalists and missionaries to create “New China”, and the Cultural Revolution
years from 1966 to 1969, when Mao launched drastic purges against foreign influence in Chinese society.
Xi is a great admirer of Mao and even styles his clothing and posture to look like him. Xi Jinping was a young activist in the Cultural
Revolution years and joined the CCP in 1971. One of Xi Jinping’s earliest speeches as leader echoed many Mao phrases and framing including
the boast that China would soon have the "dominant position” in world affairs."
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...turnbull-urges
"But Turnbull rejected such calls, encouraging his successors in government to “stand firm”.
“The one thing you cannot do with Beijing or any other superpower is become sycophantic or to demonstrate that you will just buckle
whenever the pressure is ratcheted up, you get no thanks for it – you get less respect,” said Turnbull, who was speaking at a
Peterson Institute for International Economics webinar on Friday."
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...na-tv-channel/
"Taiwan’s broadcast regulator has ordered the closure of one of the island’s most ardently pro-China cable news networks following a monthslong battle over journalistic standards and freedom of the press."
How a 'vast ocean of goodwill' between China and Australia turned sour
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/19/a...hnk/index.html
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/the-fu...ough-on-china/
"As a matter of fact, being “tough” on China has proved disastrous for the US and its allies. The trade war against China has increased
America’s trade deficits, eroded manufacturing, put farmers at financial risk and undermined economic growth.
Meanwhile, appointing itself as US “deputy sheriff” has landed Australia in a recession. Japan and South Korea are at risk of being
targeted by Chinese economic retaliation. Cozying up to the US will make it harder for India to recover from an 11% economic contraction
and not gaining an inch in its border dispute with China.
Indeed, the only “sin” China has committed is that its development model is too successful, elevating the economy to No 2 in nominal GDP
terms and the biggest in purchasing power parity terms within a generation.China was a “good guy” when it was producing labor-intensive
or low-technology products such as garments. It only became the world’s “greatest threat” when it was able to produce high-technology goods
that were competitive with those produced in the US. "
Risk for NZ is growing as possible spill over from AUS increases but im sure wellington is trying to keep its head down. The problem is that pressure will come on NZ from the US hawks but lets hope the US is so busy this all blows over in the storms ahead.
I'm confused - On the one hand, NZ is being berated as a member of Five-Eyes by the
Chinese Foreign Ministry, very crudely, with a very mild rebuke from Foreign Minister Mahuta,
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...FXYIR27BUIYOE/
and on the other hand China is promoting itself as all sweetness and light with a vision for all mankind,
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/e...nd-cooperation
(Paid subscribers only)
All at the same time!!??
Excerpt from Ambassador Wu Xi:
"In the years ahead, China will continue to hold high the banner of peace,
development, cooperation and mutual benefits, strive to create a favorable
external environment and promote the building of a new type of
international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind."
Perhaps the CCP is in turmoil and can't get its messaging right??
if we look at whats happened in HK i dont think the CCP is anything but in full control..
my friends there have all sold or closed their business and left in the stock market industry and clothe brand design and returned to australia.
we got our warning on the virus In to everyone 24 hours before the HK health warning and everyone showed up with masks on the next day.
one only needs to see what has happened in the south china seas to see the true intent of the CCP..
japan is coming under daily pressure in the skies from china aircraft patrols... its not looking good..
Unprecedented and impossible to believe. but it happened!
Trump makes futile last stand to overturn results as Georgia certifies Biden win
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...icans-election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
Electors are typically chosen and nominated by a political party or the party's presidential nominee, and are usually party members
with a reputation for high loyalty to the party and its chosen candidate. Thus, a faithless elector runs the risk of party censure
and political retaliation from their party, as well as potential legal penalties in some states. Candidates for electors are nominated
by state political parties in the months prior to Election Day. In some states, such as Indiana, the electors are nominated in primaries,
the same way other candidates are nominated.[2] In other states, such as Oklahoma, Virginia, and North Carolina, electors are nominated
in party conventions. In Pennsylvania, the campaign committee of each candidate names their candidates for elector (an attempt to
discourage faithless electors). In some states, high-ranking and/or well-known state officials up to and including governors often
serve as electors whenever possible (the Constitution prohibits federal officials from acting as electors, but does not restrict
state officials from doing so). The parties have generally been successful in keeping their electors faithful, leaving out the rare
cases in which a candidate died before the elector was able to cast a vote.
There have been a total of 165[3] instances of faithlessness as of 2016, 63 of which occurred in 1872 when Horace Greeley died after Election
Day but before the Electoral College convened. Nearly all have voted for third party candidates or non-candidates, as opposed to switching
their support to a major opposing candidate. During the 1836 election, Virginia's entire 23-man electoral delegation faithlessly abstained[4]
from voting for victorious Democratic vice presidential nominee Richard M. Johnson.[3] The loss of Virginia's support caused Johnson to fall
one electoral vote short of a majority, causing the vice-presidential election to be thrown into the U.S. Senate for the only time in American history.
Looks like the world might be back with a safe pair of hands (China included)
Biden Chooses Antony Blinken, Defender of Global Alliances, as Secretary of State
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/22/u...p_id=636303189
Excerpt:
"Working with other countries, Mr. Blinken said in the same July forum at the Hudson Institute, could have the added benefit of confronting another top diplomatic challenge: competing with China by choosing multilateral efforts to advance trade, technology investments and human rights — instead of forcing individual nations to choose between the two superpowers’ economies."
The Biden administration and the South China Sea
The Trump administration leaves behind a major nexus of confrontation with China for Biden to contend with
by Mark J. Valencia
https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/the-bi...uth-china-sea/
This could be a fast developing story...
These AAA-Rated Bonds Are Tumbling as China Default Fears Spread
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ult-fears-grow
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/1...ly-thing-do-so
Meanwhile, we have Mahuta in her first foray as Foreign Minister telling the Chinese exactly where NZ stands - with a declining empire against our biggest trading partner.
Watch this space!
Interesting article but I believe China has far bigger fish to fry than insignificant New Zealand, even as a part of Five Eyes.
Foreign Minister Mahuta's reply was very mild in comparison to China's Foreign Ministry's aggressive rhetoric, and the Prime Minister referred to "our mature relationship" almost apologetically...
I mean let's face it, NZ is a joke - pretending to have its own sovereign foreign policy, when it can't even defend its share of the necessary defence partnership load with Australia, let alone interact credibly with the US as a non-ally. (Despite excellent progress by Ron Mark as MOD).
We need an ANZUS II and we need to credibly re-arm (including a new air-strike wing) and prepare for whats coming
from an increasingly aggressive President Xi in the future...(or wait until the China moderates force him out - see previous page "The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hardline faction").
New-Zealand's Dangerous Strategic Apathy in an Uncertain Age
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ne...uncertain-age/
BS, we need to work with China and face the fact they're not going away. They're too big and important to be adversaries. That doesn't mean we should be weak but rather play the game how nz has been to date.
Nz will never credibley rearm as you call it. Simply too small. A few fighter planes wont make any difference. Nz is far from a joke, is actually a great little country.
I love this country more than you can possibly imagine, just before WWII, NZ was completely defenceless and hadn't taken out an insurance policy against aggression by a foreign power. Wake UP!! History is repeating itself. As long as President Xi remains in power, things will get progressively worse...(or wait until the China moderates force him out - see previous page "The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hardline faction").
Biden Welcomes National Security Team, Says ‘America Is Back’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-seeks-a-reset
No America is not back. I've traveled the highways and byways of America many times and it's a country in decline. Clapped out infrastructure and no middle class. The sun is setting on the US and rising in other lands. As it has always done. The American Century is over. Going to war isn't going to work next time and hasn't worked since the 1960s.
Telling the world you're taking the top seat at the table merely implies another futile arms race.
Japan and Australia put aside wartime baggage to counter China’s rise
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion...stralia-china/
Excerpt:
"While both Suga and Morrison reject claims that their cooperation targets China, both countries’ defense ministries identify Beijing as a principle cause of regional instability and call for enhanced capabilities to keep the peace. The two leaders’ joint statement notes “serious concerns” about “coercive or unilateral attempts to change the status quo” that “increase tensions in the region.” From my vantage point — and I am not alone — the particulars in the statement point to one country, even if the two leaders don’t want to say its name out loud. Dealing with it requires more than symbolic efforts. They are underway."
You may well be right, but what is the alternative - give into China's aggression and be rolled over by the CCP?
Perhaps Biden can moderate the situation between the US and China by sharing other work with multilateral institutions.
I have also been to the US and have seen their decline, but I still have faith in their ability to re-invigorate themselves
and their values which we in the West share.
Trump has caused immense damage, and it will take time to heal the divisions but at least with Biden, the world is in a better place...
Why are you spouting all this pro-America stuff on share traders forum?
The connection with the capital markets is....what?
Write to Mahuta with your theories.
Tell us some share tales instead. That's what the folks here want.
1. The title of this forum is Geo-Political-Risk - look up what it means, and think about how it might affect your shares. eg China and Australia ATM
2. Whether you appreciate it or not, America's nuclear shield and global alliances have kept the world safe from a major conflagration for some 75 years.
We owe a debt to America for saving NZ and Australia from the Japanese in WWII and our generation has never had to fight a war under conscription.
I personally find this anti-Americanism attitude extremely distasteful, it clearly stems from ignorance. Read some history.
Fortunately we are lead by leaders in NZ who are not either of these things. And our past Minister of Defence was possibly the best MOD in 40 years.
Unlike the last appalling 4 years of President Trump...
US-China detente hopes rising in SE Asia
https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/us-chi...ng-in-se-asia/
Excerpt:
"ASEAN’s preference, in a pithy phrase, would be for the US to show up but not to speak up.
Nor does the region want a return of America’s “benign neglect” of the 1990s, preferring instead something akin to “engaged indifference.”"
There’s More Than Wine in Australia-China Trade Tension
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...-trade-tension
Exerpt:
"It is far from clear that the incoming Biden administration will feel differently about the threats that a successfully aspiring
and expanding China poses for U.S. interests. As such, the cost of running the dual-option model will continue to rise for countries that pursue it,
including Canada and Singapore." (and New Zealand) - italics are mine.
Treasury Wine 'extremely disappointed' by China move, pivoting to other markets
https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...30-p56j1c.html
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...12-p56dx3.html
"Between China and Australia, which country is breaching the principles of market economy and the bilateral free-trade agreement? And which country is reneging on its commitments,
undermining cooperation and taking discriminatory measures? The facts are all too clear."
Australia is one of the most prolific users of anti-dumping measures in the world. Australia's own Productivity Commission says so. In 2016, it said "there are no convincing justifications
for these measures, and they reduce the wellbeing of the Australian community". It repeated the same argument again in 2019 to press home the point on why anti-dumping measures
should be avoided.
Dumping involves foreign companies selling goods in Australia below the price in their home market, crowding out and reducing the competitiveness of the local product.
The Productivity Commission argues anti-dumping measures stymie innovation and economic growth because they protect inefficient products that can be bought at a lower price from elsewhere.
The products that are dumped are then subject to countervailing duties, or tariffs, to make the local product more competitive.
In the case of China, Australia has taken particular issue with Chinese paper, aluminum and steel being dumped into the local market and undermining the competitiveness of Australian players.
These three are worth paying particular attention to because of their importance to the local economy.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/sto...rade/?cs=14233
"Now a non-resident fellow with the United States Studies Centre, Uren's been exploring our economic and strategic relationship with China intensely for decades. To those like Morrison
who urge our manufactures to swerve, duck and go elsewhere to sell their goods Uren makes one single, critical point, with massive clarity. The dependence is all one-way.
There is, he insists, absolutely "no realistic alternative market to China for a third of [our] exports and no viable source but China for almost a fifth of imports". As a market, however,
we are almost completely irrelevant to Beijing and represent less than 2 per cent of worldwide sales. This asymmetry is complete in virtually everything other than a handful of commodities,
of which iron ore and LNG exports are dominant - and this is why Morrison's gut-led approach to the relationship with our most important trading partner isn't acceptable.
He plays our most vital international relationship as if he's an equal player on the sports field, needling and taunting an opponent for tactical advantage, seeking to provoke them into
a foul move and then thinking everything can just be dismissed to start again next match. Diplomacy isn't like that. It's not possible to pretend there's no lingering ill will from picking needless fights.
Take Morrison's ill-judged call for an investigation into the origin of COVID-19."
Just like Trump's tariffs, China's trade attack will backfire
https://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...30-p56j41.html
Excerpt:
"Like Trump’s tariffs and assaults on the multi-lateral organisations that America had played a pivotal
role in creating, which alarmed America’s traditional allies, China’s attempt to intimidate Australia is
likely to be counter-productive and force other western nations to consider what China’s new belligerence might mean for them."
The consequences for China of its aggressiveness:
A plea for help as China loses jobs to Vietnam
https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/a-plea...bs-to-vietnam/
Excerpts:
"While both Tianjin and Huizhou have diversified their manufacturing sectors away from foreign-invested
firms such as Samsung, the exodus of Samsung and the like and the ripple effect on local supply chains
have put a dent in the two cities’ economic outputand exports as the coronavirus slashes external demand.
The cities’ statistics say Tianjin’s GDP contracted by 3.9% in the first half of the year, and total exports were down 3.3%.
The impact is more intimately felt in Huizhou, whose economy is way smaller. Its exports plummeted
by 28% in the first six months, dragging GDP growth to a negative 4.3%."
"These developments have fueled rumors about whether Apple will soon start making iPhones outside China.
Apple news website Apple Insider claimed in August that the US tech behemoth had assessed the manufacturing
capabilities of Luxshare’s Vietnam base, after the latter injected US$454 million into its three subsidiaries in the country."
"A memo from Zhejiang’s provincial department of commerce to the Chinese Commerce Ministry viewed by
Asia Times noted that exports were still vital in keeping the local economy ticking and that, for the sake of
employment and fiscal income, Beijing must formulate new measures and dole out subsidies
amid “a hollowing out of foreign direct investment and export-oriented manufacturing.”
So will the real China please standup? The sweetness & light one or the evil CCP
China fires back at Morrison, doubles down on war crimes accusation
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/tw...30-p56j80.html
Time for China's moderates to step up and replace Xi
(Refer "The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hard-line faction" (Post #334)
Excerpts:
17) I personally am happy for Xi to remain president of China for his hard-line approach will continue to alienate China from the rest of the world. This will lead to more self-reliance policies and measures within the economies of the west and regions outside China.
18) On the other hand, if the west wants to have a more moderate leadership within CCP/PLA/China and Helen a less aggressive CCP/PLA, there is one simple way to approach this.
19) Stop giving President Xi access to international forums. BRIC counties, if possible, should stop conveying. India and Brazil should be persuaded for such. ASEAN nations should stop their invitations of China and hence Xi to its meetings. ASEAN nations could be persuaded by US. Australia and EU for doing this. APAC also should cease to operate to stop Xi from getting platform in conveying his messages.
20) All western democracies as well as Korea, Japan and SE Asia nations should not invite Xi or refuse Xi visiting their countries, full stop.
21) Further, sending back all Chinese diplomats that have air unwarranted hostile remarks against western countries back to China and blacklist them from being accepted for other posts (diplomatic, trade or commercial enterprises) in the west.
22) By isolating/excluding Xi from international forums, Xi could not use international stages to shore up his own position in the struggles within CCP.
23) BTW, by not taking phone calls from Aussie ministers is similar to my suggestions of excluding Xi from international forums, but against Australia instead.
24) Also ban all Chinese social sites in the west across the board. Ban Global Times (CCP's mouth piece in the west) from operating within the west altogether.
25) CCTV's international arms have YouTube channels. As long as China has banned YouTube, its own government and state owned enterprises should not be allowed to have channels on YouTube either. (I would miss some of the good programmes, but some are nothing but with CCP/PLA propaganda, lol)
26) To fight Xi, we could do nothing in the west and let the 2 main moderate factions do their own works to bring down Xi and his hard-line faction. Or we can also be hard-line against Xi himself too.
"Twitter post garbage the clearest sign yet of desperation in Beijing"
https://www.smh.com.au/national/twit...29-p56iye.html
How Australia can respond to China's aggression
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...01-p56jgv.html
Excerpt:
"China’s use of trade sanctions in response to non-trade issues is generating international disquiet
because it underscores its new-found willingness to exercise, nakedly and crudely, its economic and geopolitical muscle."
Jacinda Ardern comes to Australia's aid in Twitter dispute with China
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/ja...01-p56jgj.html
Excerpt:
France's Foreign Ministry has also reacted to the dispute.
"We do not consider the tweet in question to be worthy of the methods one would expect from the diplomacy
of a country like China," a spokesperson said. "The published image is particularly shocking and the commentary
is biased and insulting to all countries whose armed forces have been engaged in Afghanistan for nearly two decades."
Opinion of Michael Pembroke:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion...-against-china
China is humiliating Australia as an example to others - but the bullying won't last
By Anne-Marie Brady
https://www.smh.com.au/national/chin...01-p56jfz.html
Excerpt:
"Australia is important to China as a source of strategic minerals and food, it hosts three of China's BeiDou global navigation stations, and is influential in Pacific and Antarctic affairs, as well as being an important player internationally. Australia should be confident that China will also be looking for common points in the relationship, and will understand that the tongue war is damaging its international reputation. We can expect that it will eventually trail off, as China's many other tongue wars have done."
While President Xi remains in power - it is time to decouple from China...
China’s hard line against Australia is a lesson for us all
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion...ine-australia/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
'Weak': Chinese President Xi Jinping's huge leadership problem
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/wea...NWRDY7AS3UQFA/
Excerpt:
"Retail sales are up, but not as much as expected and the government has delayed setting a new target for economic growth.
Unemployment is widely thought to be higher than the official figures and the gap between rich and poor is widening.
Some within China are also deeply uncomfortable with the government's "wolf warrior" diplomacy that has led to the country's reputation being trashed."
"The fact that professors from top academic institutions – including the party's own national training centre – are calling Xi's leadership a failure, urging his removal from power, and explicitly envisioning a transition to a more democratic political system is simply incredible," Cook wrote in The Diplomat.
"It indicates that Xi is facing a serious crisis of faith within the party, even if no one has the power to act on it at present."
Some aspects of Sino-U.S. ties 'beyond repair,' China state media warn
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...lations-media/
Excerpt:
"China’s ambassador to the United States became the latest of the Asian nation’s senior officials to signal a desire
to reset the increasingly confrontational relationship as U.S. President-elect Joe Biden prepares to take office in January.
“There are always differences between the two countries. None of them justifies confrontation and war, cold or hot,” Cui Tiankai said on Twitter."
Japan to put new Aegis radars on warships after cancelling ground stations: Asahi
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKBN28H041
Biden officials to look to repair alliances and help mend Tokyo-Seoul ties
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...n-south-korea/
Invasion killer: Taiwan’s new subs can pack a punch
https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/death-...midable-force/
A view from the fringes of the military-industrial complex?
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu//Po...ml?source=GovD
Historic parallels for NZ also?
The threats to Australia’s economy and democracy are grave but not insurmountable
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-...07-p56l7o.html
Excerpt:
"China’s Xi Jinping has made a strategic decision to put Australia’s sovereignty to a sustained test.
It’s a political, economic and cyber confrontation so far. We’ve not been so tested since World War II."
Nato has only recently woken up...
NATO boss says China challenge too great for US alone
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...07-p56lg9.html
Excerpt:
"So I strongly believe that NATO also should be a platform to help create a community of like-minded democracies
and that's the reason why we've been reaching out to our partners in the Asia-Pacific: Japan, South Korea,
Australia and New Zealand and we met with them actually last week at the foreign ministerial meeting."
"Indo-Pacific Perspectives"
An excellent summary of the differing viewpoints held by the various power blocks within the "Indo Pacific".
Especially the more nuanced engagement with China by Japan and ASEAN, vs the currently more strident assertions of the US.
Also the relative compliance by China with the "rules based order" in the Indian Ocean theatre,
vs its rejection of the 2016 PCA ruling under UNCLOS in favour of the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Excellent reading - highly recommended...Thanks GTM 3442...
Excerpt:
"Multipolarity with shared commitment to multilateralism has the potential to make the Indo-Pacific
peaceful, predictable, and rules-oriented.
The task of the new US President Joe Biden is to undo Trump’s legacy, which undermined
the cause of a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific; salvage US leadership and influence;
and resuscitate multilateralism for the common good.
At the same time, it is necessary for other powers to engage both the United States and
China to prevent the Indo-Pacific region from becoming a theater of the “new cold war,”
and to ensure that freedom and openness across the region are enough to abate the
risk of coercion and instability."
Dr. Ngaibiakching (Indonesia)
China's record November will further unsettle Australia and the US
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...08-p56lkr.html
Excerpts:
"The pandemic has had most of China’s major trading partners reviewing their reliance on its manufacturing base and supply chains
for medical equipment and supplies and other critical goods, so a Biden call for a collective approach to China might fall on fertile ground,
particularly now the world has seen how destructive it can be for individual economies to get on China’s wrong side."
"Last week the US Congress, in a bipartisan bill, presented legislation that allows for funding of a new "Pacific Deterrence" initiative
to demonstrate America’s commitment to protecting its interests in the Pacific and requires the regional military commander to deliver
annual reports on his forces needs to maintain military advantage over China."
Well China on the surface level has "taken" Hong Kong. Wonder when Taiwan will be - could be?
What's Taiwan's state of readiness?
How China is trying to subdue Taiwan with 'gray-zone' warfare
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...-zone-warfare/
Excerpts:
"There are signs that the Tsai administration is working to boost readiness and firepower and to reform the reserves. In October, Yen revealed a proposal to build a better trained force within the reserves, made up of 268,000 troops, who could be “immediately” mobilized to join the standing military in an emergency. In the annual Han Kuang Exercise held in July in central Taiwan, two battalions of reservists were called up to take part in a live-fire artillery drill with regular units. A senior Taiwan official familiar with the island’s security planning said the United States had been urging the military to include the reservists in the drill."
and,
"Before his retirement last year, Lee proposed that the island avoid a war of attrition with a massively powerful China. Instead, Lee suggests Taiwan prepare to absorb PLA missile and air strikes. The key, he argues, is to preserve the ability to strike back at an invading force despite the likely loss of major conventional hardware, including big warships and jet fighters.
At the heart of Lee’s proposal are several changes. One, Taiwan should maintain a small number of large, expensive weapons to preserve public morale and counter Beijing’s gray-zone operations. At the same time, though, the island should bristle with big numbers of smaller, cheaper but lethal weapons, including mobile anti-ship missiles, portable anti-aircraft missiles, advanced sea mines and fast missile boats. Camouflaged and dispersed in urban, coastal, jungle and mountain areas, these weapons would be harder for PLA forces to find and destroy and could pummel an invasion force well before it reached land."
Austin signals new ‘strategic patience’ with China
Biden defense secretary pick expected to take less confrontational tack to coalition-building against China than under Trump
by Richard Javad Heydarian
https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/austin...ce-with-china/
Excerpt:
"Core to his military philosophy is a profound appreciation of the complexity of threats and challenges confronting
the US in the 21st century, a stark contrast with the position of both liberal hawks as well as the Trump administration.
While this could mean a dialing down of America’s military tensions with rivals such as China, it also signals the Biden administration’s
efforts to assemble a more robust and enduring coalition to constrain what are viewed by Washington as Beijing’s worst instincts."
No relief: How Biden's new trade chief will keep the pressure on China
https://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...14-p56n94.html
Excerpt:
"For China, a coalition of the larger part of the global economy would be far more threatening to its ambitions than Trump's unilateralist approach and would make it more difficult for it to isolate and target individual economies – as it has done with its trade sanctions on Australian exports – than is now the case."
and,
"The (Chinese) steel mills are panicking, calling in Australia iron ore suppliers to question them about the prices, suspecting manipulation even though the Pilbara producers haven't reduced their production. Potential disruption to future volumes generated by the fallout from Rio Tinto's destruction of the Juukan Gorge caves might also be playing a role in the price spike.
In any event, the combination of the soaring prices of both iron ore and coal are threatening to throttle the profitability of China's steel and energy industries. Efforts being attempted to get the power companies to cap the price of the coal they buy, or trying to revisit the way in which iron ore is priced, are fruitless."
While Australia chooses a muscular relationship with a newly aggressive China, ours is a quiet but determined independence,
says Anne-Marie Brady
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/108394/while-australia-chooses-muscular-relationship-newly-aggressive-china-ours-quiet?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign= ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+15+December+2020
Excerpt:
"We are positioned in a better place
New Zealand has a solid foundation of positive political relations with Beijing, which should mean that any matters of contention can be discussed and resolved amicably. When then National Party leader Simon Bridges visited China in September 2019, he was told by a senior Politburo leader that New Zealand-China relations were at a “historic best” - under the Ardern first term government.
Last week, in his first phone call to New Zealand’s new foreign minister, Nanaia Mahuta, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi repeated an often-said flattery that New Zealand-China relations were an “example” to other states."
I was under the impression that Australian coal was off the menu. . .
https://www.theguardian.com/australi...-media-reports
Australia's iron ore situation, and it geostrategic importance...
As Australia's relationship with China deteriorates beyond repair, we need to find new trade partners
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-14/australia-has-to-look-beyond-china-as-relationship-breaks-down/12979900?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campai gn=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+15+December+2 020
Excerpt:
"The only Australian product that will not attract any penalty from Beijing, for possibly a decade, is iron ore. It is the vital ingredient for China's ongoing infrastructure stimulus programs. Without it, China would struggle to maintain economic growth. That, in turn, would endanger employment and social stability, a prospect that sends shudders through Chinese Communist Party leadership."
Quick question to this forum. Call me crazy if you like but let me run a scenario past you. Let's just say for S and Giggles that Trump wins. What is that likely to do to the NZ market? US market is pricing in a Biden Admin with a Yellen Fed and a Republican Senate = very bullish US markets. Will $$ move to US bonds? Gold? Remember bonds and gold are acting like stocks at the moment. Personally I expect a sharp drop in markets with a quick rally although lower than now. Implications are there WAS massive fraud and the Dems/RINO's would be screwed - massive social unrest and possible conflict with China (pretty bleak). This is not political - I don't care who wins really. Just thinking about the financial side of it.
Thoughts?
China's treatment of Australia is a 'sign of things to come' for world, says John Bolton
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/china-s-treatment-of-australia-is-a-sign-of-things-to-come-for-world-says-john-bolton-20201217-p56o62.html
Excerpt:
"China was trying to separate Australia from its strategic ally the United States, just as it had attempted to do with Canada,
when it detained the two Michaels more than two years ago, following the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou
in Vancouver, at the United States request, Bolton said."
"It was obviously intended to split Canada from the United States, to split Australia from the United States."
"This is the way China behaves now. How are they going to behave when they become more powerful?
This is a sign of things to come."
Troubled Waters: Where the U.S. and China Could Clash in the South China Sea
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-south-china-sea-miscalculation/?srnd=premium-asia
Excerpt:
"Still, those arguments aren’t likely to hold much water with the Biden administration. Many members of his national security team
vividly recall Xi Jinping telling Barack Obama that China had no intention of militarizing land structures in the South China Sea when
the two leaders met at the White House in 2015."
Where the Geopolitical Rubber really hits the road - What perhaps should have happened for a safer Mult-Polar world?
Germany opens the door to Huawei, with conditions
https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/germany-opens-the-door-to-huawei-with-conditions/
Excerpt:
"In a November post on Huawei’s website, the company’s chief security officer Andy Purdy wrote,
“Other countries embrace uniform testing across vendors – not discriminating on their country of origin… Huawei also opened a testing center in Bonn, Germany last November and another in Brussels earlier this year. It should be able to open similar centers in the US. At the very least, the US should take an approach similar to how Germany encouraged all telecom vendors to establish independent verification labs where third-party experts could vet code for vulnerabilities.”
Ignoring the idiot and possibly Russian compromised Trump, this could be a major developing story,
SolarWinds is network management software very commonly used by all kinds of organisations globally,
(including in New Zealand)
Trump contradicts Pompeo, plays down alleged Russian role in cyberattack
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/19/trum...e-in-hack.html
A slightly more technical discussion for those inclined here:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cyb...HRC5Z2ZUYKOUA/
Excerpt:
"Russia has been a sensitive topic for Trump. An investigation led by Robert Mueller found that the Russian government had interfered in the 2016 election that resulted in Trump becoming president. Trump said in 2019 that he had never worked for Russia, after The New York Times reported the Federal Bureau of Investigation had begun looking into whether he had become influenced by the Kremlin."
"Sen. Marco Rubio, a Republican representing Florida, said in a Saturday tweet that it was “increasingly clear that Russian intelligence conducted the gravest cyber intrusion in our history.”
Green tea or green cheese?
https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/why-...g-to-the-moon/
Bit more of the background, including WTO maneuverings...
Huawei documents reveal China's grievance against Australia
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/hu...18-p56oq2.html
As Australia frets about the Torres Strait. . .
https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/paci...ishing-fleets/
China wants Australia relationship back on track 'as early as possible'
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/ch...29-p56qr2.html
Excerpt:
"Rory Medcalf, head of ANU's National Security Colleges, warned that Wang's comments should "not be over-interpreted as some kind of positive signal".
"They are at best mild and conditional," Medcalf said. "Of course it’s nice at one level to receive some hint that China too would like a stable relationship, but the bottom line is that Wang’s words still place all the responsibility on Australia.
"There’s no admission that China bears any fault in the deterioration in ties, or even acknowledgement that it is using ongoing coercive measures – economic restrictions or hostage diplomacy – against countries like Australia and Canada."
What really happened in Wuhan:
25 days that changed the world: How COVID-19 slipped China’s grasp
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...irus-missteps/
despite Foreign Minister Wang Yi's CCP lies
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN29702U
Excerpt:
“We raced against time, and were the earliest to report the epidemic to the world,” he said.
“More and more studies show that the epidemic very probably emerged in many places throughout the world.”