Ghosta
Tricha was recommending MCR from the 65cents days so I don't think he/she would be jealous of your gains with AGM, having made even more from MCR.
Cheers,
Zzz.
Printable View
Ghosta
Tricha was recommending MCR from the 65cents days so I don't think he/she would be jealous of your gains with AGM, having made even more from MCR.
Cheers,
Zzz.
Ghosta - typical hotheaded hotcopperite who ramps his favourite spec plays to death and wan't take any criticism.
Probably hasn't experienced a downturn since he will soon learn that it's the spec plays and pre-producers that will fall the hardest.
Run along and save your moronic posts for hotcopper, that's a good boy.
Might be a good start for some of you posters to actually READ the Fox-Davies Broker report. But because in the summary your favourite share (which may have been a good earner up until now) is not listed as a buy, its all crap. Thats fine if you want to delude yourself.
Readers of this Forum may wish to buy a stock and make some good money. The F-D Report is a truly excellent report written by an English company, who looked into nickel stocks all over the world. The fact that the recommended AGM is no surprise to anyone who has done any research on nickel stocks. But those with blinkers on will go on wailing in the background.......
Heavy metal - Your out of line. Grow Up. Watch and learn.
Enjoy both Sec and Ghostas informative and interesting posts and rate
Sec 10/10
Ghosta 10/10
Heavy metal - did you get a day off from kindy?
I've read the Fox-Davies report & have held AGM since before it was released, as well as MCR & IGO. Also held LIM but sold off due to the upcoming move off of the ASX. I'm happy to have some diversification in my nickel stocks & believe they all have great prospects.
I also hold a variety of other stocks in related & different industries. Again, I'm happy to be diversified. I wouldn't put all my money in one stock no matter how positive I was towards it's future. Anything can happen & it often does.
Cheers,
Zzz.
Hi Zzz,
Totally agree with your comments. I also hold AGM and MCR. The latter a top company with excellent mangement. As is the former.The only difference, of course, is that AGM haven`t sold anything yet but when they do their share price will really jump. So in percentage terms they are probably a more attractive investment.
But, yes, diversification in the one market is prudent.
Kronos.
Each to his own. Best thing I ever did was dump all my other shares several years ago and put all the money into AGM.
Ive blown the "divesification" theory to hell. But you have to chose the right stock and AGMs dont come along often. The trick is to recognise it early.
100 Bagger- a bit to go yet but certain to get there!
ghosta
Very nice if you manage to choose a superstar
But if you dont you can go broke
I was once way overweight in a particular company thinking that it had 100 % plus of upside and no downside, but as it subsequently turned out I was wrong and it cost me around 20 % of my portfolio
Just a comment from personal experience --- there are no certainties in investing !
Whiteheron
Ever so true.
Cheers
Ghosta -Grow Up. Watch and learn!
I think maybe you should have a real good look in the Mirror Ghosta[|)].
JBM, WSA, SMY, IGO, and MCR have close to the same number of shares combined as AGM, are all class acts and have made many of us well off and will continue to do so while Nickel stays up.
AGM are close to their peak, 700 million dollars I suspect will be it. Will produce only 8,000 tons a year nickel, starting in 6 monthes maybe [?]
The wildcard in their pack however is they are a prime takover candidate along with WSA.
IF you go back over AGM you will find I had them and made a 1 bagger of them in a month!
Cheers [B)][}:)]
" Ghosta -Grow Up. Watch and learn!
I think maybe you should have a real good look in the Mirror Ghosta."
Trying to be funny or trying to be a smart alec...not sure.
Please dont do it, it offends all viewers sensibilities. While your about it, how about a lot less bold capitals in your posts, others have no need to do it..... perhaps its your way of getting noticed!
WHQuote:
quote:Originally posted by whiteheron
ghosta
Very nice if you manage to choose a superstar
But if you dont you can go broke
I was once way overweight in a particular company thinking that it had 100 % plus of upside and no downside, but as it subsequently turned out I was wrong and it cost me around 20 % of my portfolio
Just a comment from personal experience --- there are no certainties in investing !
I saw the "writing on the wall" got out of LAF with a (small) profit.
Cannot compare with AGM.
Hey most of my friends are "divorced and second time rounders" one bad experience should not make you forever shy.
Cheers
JK
JoeKing
I also had LAF and like you saw the writing on the wall and decided to quit whilst I was ahead by a modest amount
It proved to be the wright thing to do of course
Showed me that politics ,country risk, power of religious groups etc are not to be ignored
I still keep a good watch on LAF just for future reference
The bad experience that I had (with GTM) I believe has made me a much smarter investor
Experience does not come cheap
Awesome result out, 36 cents a share NPAT for the quarter for IGO.
Nearly as much as the 1st half year
And Nickel is up another 10 Thousand per ton, going into this quarter.
Yes Nickel still at $60,000 a ton OZ.
Waiting with antipication Mincors result, probably at the end of next week.
SMY and MRE will be doing the same I presume.
WSA just getting into the picture.
AGM holders will have to eat their hearts out, their turn should come Feb 2008 ;)
Cheers [B)][}:)]
While they wait for Feb 2008, AGM holders will have to be content to watch the SP double.
Holders of all other nickel stocks will have to eat their hearts out!
Thursday, April 19
Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $22.73/lb - 3 month buyer - $21.86/lb (44.77% higher than 1/1/07). We may be in the 5th year of a bull market, but to the best of our recollection, we have not seen it act so confused in quite some time. The news this week would typically have given a bull trader all the ammunition they needed to buy, and drive the market higher. On the same hand, the bears have been hard pressed to find anything to make them think the market was going south. But trying to understand the traded price of nickel this week has been like analyzing the movement of a child's seesaw. One moment it's up, the next it's down. The floor established by the last correction appears to be holding, but traders can't seem to find their footing beyond that.
Let's look closely at the week, thus far. Some felt the gain in nickel inventory recorded yesterday was bearish. Really? Last Friday there was 4,374 tonnes of nickel being stocked in LME warehouses. Today, there are 4,266 tonnes recorded. Yesterday, the WBMS recorded nickel consumption grew by 20% worldwide, and production grew by 6%. That means more nickel is being consumed, than is available, and this after a year of the same situation. We thought that was the primary reason why nickel prices had been driven so high, the whole supply and demand thing? Manufacturers have been threatening to produce stainless with less nickel, but the WBMS figure mentioned before, doesn't reflect this actually happening. The dollar has been taking a beating this week, which was given by some analyst's, as the primary reason why nickel prices rose during a long period, earlier in this bull run.
Today, China reported its GDP grew faster than expected, so everyone immediately assumes that whatever step China will take to cool their economic growth down, could be bad for nickel consumption. How many times has China raised its interest rates in the last year, and what effect has it had on nickel, one way or the other? What analysts really need to be worried about, is what will happen if the 1.3 billion Chinese, decide to quit saving 50% of their new found wealth, and start spending a larger percentage of it. And today, support personnel at Voisey's Bay went on strike, after we reported last weekend that a CVRD official confirmed that any strike would effect production. The market reaction? Nickel fell. This story isn't getting any attention, which makes us feel rather foolish, as we have been keeping our readers updated on it for the last few weeks.
So why do we care? Primarily because we try to offer the news and a brief analysis on what happened during the day, and for the last few days, we have had no "analysis". And while many of our readers are those with an interest in nickel, from the producers point of view, many of our readers are, like us, looking at this situation from the nickel consumers point of view. We would like to offer something besides articles for those who come here trying to figure out where their stainless steel prices are heading, and saying "oh, it's most likely goin up", without offering some kind of practical reason, is worthless. We kind of feel like we missed a big meeting somewhere, were the fundamentals of the market were re-defined. After all that, we apologize to our readers for expressing our frustration, and for not being able to offer any legitimate reason for why the market is presently doing what it is doing. 3 month nickel ended the day at $21.56/lb ($47,525/tonne) (Dow Jones
Spot on Heavy Metal"typical hotheaded hotcopperite who ramps his favourite spec plays to death and wan't take any criticism"
Hotcopperite on AGM tonight :( Sad!
.................................................. ....................
I agree totally.
They issue shares to themselves as well as a tidy directors fee.
But what makes me angry is that they can borrow the money from the company to buy the shares interest free and dont have to pay it back untill they are no longer a director.
So if 5 million shares are issued at say $1, then the company pays for the shares on a loan. At present the money for the loan would have been raised at the last loan raising (31.5c), so over 15 million shares were issued just to provide the director with 5 million shares. So we have in effect 20 million shares issued just for the benefit of one greedy director.
This F***** stinks.
I agree that this practice, which is quite legal and commonly adopted, stinks.
The directors of the company obviously believe they are doing such a good job they deserve to be well rewarded.
Because AGM has been doubling in value, then redoubling again, every six months, and all the independent brokers who study this company are still saying the share is STILL well under value, shareholders are not likely to object formally to this arrangement.
Everyone who has anything to do with AGM is making so much money!
Pleased to see that all nickel shares are doing well at the moment- most are doing better than bank interest!
BUOYANT RESULTS
Stellar run continues for Kambalda nickel miners
Nickel miners and explorers, reviving the Kambalda area projects, are reporting good results due to strong metal prices.
Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Wednesday , 25 Apr 2007
PERTH -
Western Australia's Mincor Resources NL's March quarter report today reflected the same level of buoyancy as fellow Kambalda region nickel miner Independence Group NL showed yesterday when it reported a record three months' net profit after taxation of $A41.7 million ($US34.44 M).
The Mincor report not only detailed a strong operating surplus of $A36.7 M ($US30.31 M), despite reduced production, but also a bold new hedging programme for a total of 4,026 tonnes of payable nickel metal to April 2009 at an average price of $A24,242/t ($US20,023/t). This represents less than 27% of Mincor's expanded production over that period.
It is also a price that would have made any nickel mine manager in the Kambalda region over the past 30 years green with envy, given that they were often saddled with a flat nickel price below $US2/lb.
Mincor's share price warmed to the news, as did Indepencence's price yesterday that rose $A0.70 the previous day to $A6.80/share ($US5.61/share), though it softened A14¢ at the close of trade today through a high turnover.
At the time of writing the two other Kambalda regional miners, Sally Malay Mining Ltd (in partnership with Brilliant Mines of Canada) and Consolidated Minerals Ltd (with subsidiary Consolidated Nickel) were yet to report. However, Mineweb understands ConsMins' March quarter result on nickel mining at the Beta Hunt operation will be tempered by the cost of mining development out to the Alpha area.
However, today Sally Malay Mining put out a joint report with Thundelarra Exploration on planned development of the Copernicus joint venture area near Sally Malay Mining's Sally Malay mine in the North Kimberleys of Western Australia. The partners hope to award an open pit mining contract for Copernicus in October and to begin treatment of ore at the Sally Malay plant in April 2008.
Thundelarra will retain 40% of Copernicus which has a measured to inferred resource of 852,000t grading 1.242% nickel, 0.691% copper and 0.039% cobalt. Thundelarra's chairman Phil Crabb told Mineweb that a new deep drilling programme will begin soon to help plumb the depths of Copernicus which at the end of open cut mining will go underground.
About three years ago Thundelarra, frustrated with what it saw as inaction on Copernicus, took legal action against Sally Malay and the matter was resolved by re-activated exploration which found depth extentions to the orebody.
Meanwhile, Independence reported record production of 75,035t grading 4.06% Ni being delivered to the Kambalda concentrator owned by BHP Billiton, and said it had cash costs below budget -- $A3.70/lb ($US3.05/lb) of payable nickel.
Exploration on the McLeay shoots 1 and 2 - accessed from the Long shaft at Kambalda - continued to extend south through exploration, and new drill hits included 6.8 metres @ 5.5% Ni and 4.5m @ 10.9% Ni.
The company reported in a presentation that it now holds $A78.7 M ($US65.01 M) cash and was paying out $A6.9 M ($US5.7 M) in shareholder dividends.
Mincor said today its current cash and receivables net of creditors and accruals, stands at $A107.4 M ($US88.7 M) with no debt. Its March quarter result took in an additional $A20 M ($US16.5 M) revenue recognised for the December quarter, based on final nickel settlement prices.
The nickel price has been good to Australian nickel miners in the March quarter rising to record levels
Kambalda gained a new lease of life when the original owner of the mines on the Kambalda and Widgiemooltha domes - WMC Resources Ltd - began selling off its troubled and its mothballed mines, with the first taker being Mincor Resources which reopened the Miitel mine in 2002.
WMC ha
No End In Sight For Nickel Strength
27/04/2007 By: Greg Peel
2006 saw an interesting development in the global nickel market. As prices surged to new, previously unthought of highs, a new market developed in "direct shipping laterite ore" which actually had the effect of reducing the 2006 deficit below that which had been previously anticipated.
But even this had little effect on the price.
Nickel ore is found globally in two major forms – sulphide and laterite. Laterite is exceedingly more abundant at 72% of known resources, yet sulphide represents 58% of nickel production. This is because nickel laterites suffer from complex mineralogy, notoriously low grades and very high processing costs. Laterite mining has a history of longer-than-expected production ramp-ups and cost overruns. On average, one hundred tonnes of laterite ore needs to be mined and processed to produce one tonne of nickel.
Advertisement
Because of the high cost of laterite processing, smaller miners have previously not bothered with this abundant source as the cost exceeded the potential revenue. But now that the nickel price is in excess of US$23/lb, laterite ore can be processed commercially. Smaller miners do not have to invest in expensive processing plants. Instead, they simply ship the ore and sell it to supply-starved plants that have this capacity already. The high cost of shipping so much ore still falls short of prices achieved. Thus we now have a market in "direct shipping" laterite ore. Most of 2006's supply came from the Philippines and New Caledonia.
Canaccord Adams had previously predicted a global nickel deficit of 50,000t in 2006, but the end result was 28,000t due to the laterite invasion. If there's a lot more of this stuff lying around, then one could assume the nickel price will soon come under threat. Nearly all of the world's major currently proposed greenfield projects are laterite.
However, Canaccord is not assuming this to be the case. Were the nickel price to slip below its current levels, laterite mining, due to its high costs, would be the first to cease. Thus there is still a price support mechanism.
Canaccord estimates global nickel supply reached 1.34mt last year, representing a 4% increase. Demand reached 1.37mt, for a very strong consumption growth of 7.4%. And we all know where that came from.
While the Western world increased its nickel consumption by 4.4% in 2006, which was a stark rebound from the 4.7% fall of 2005, Chinese consumption increased by a ridiculous 25%, exceeding even the ridiculous figure of 23.5% in 2005. The major driver all round was a 12.4% increase in global stainless production. Global inventories at the end of 2006 had fallen, on Canaccord's estimates, to a very low 86,000t, or 3.3 weeks of consumption.
For 2007 Canaccord sees supply growth of 7.2% to 1.44mt, bolstered by direct shipping laterite ore. Consumption is expected to be 1.45mt, representing growth of 5.9%. China will contribute 17.4% and the Western world 3.5%. The deficit will fall to 13,000t, but available nickel inventories will fall to 73,000t or 2.6 weeks of consumption.
As we progress into time, Canaccord still cannot see supply outstripping demand. 2008 should bring 1.49mt of nickel but consumption will 1.52mt. The supply figure includes delays to Inco's giant Goro project and BHP Billiton's (BHP) Ravensthorpe project, still offset by direct shipping laterite ore. Inventories will fall to 45,000t or 1.5 weeks. This will be considered critical.
By 2009 several new projects should have started up, but tightness will remain. Production will reach 1.56mt and consumption 1.59mt. Following the Beijing Olympics Chinese consumption growth will fall to 9.6%. In theory, at this point all available nickel inventories will have been consumed. If there are no stocks available, says Canaccord, then only a high price for nickel can reduce demand.
Thus the implication i
ANYONE with any idea about the trading halt on AGM is all about please share your info. MACDUNK
DISCL holding and hoping:D:D
Duncan, not sure why but could be something big??? I did notice that GUY opened up over 20% today (GUL own 23,500,000 AGM shares) Could be takeover talks or Capital Raising...
Nickel Surcharges Rise to Record on Use, Inventory, Calyon Says
By Brett Foley
May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel surcharges paid by stainless- steel makers and other users of the metal rose to a record because of soaring demand from China and dwindling inventory, said Calyon, the investment-banking unit of Credit Agricole SA.
The average surcharge for Europe, the U.S. and Japan is $1,355 a ton, Calyon's London-based metals analyst Michael Widmer said in a report yesterday.
The surcharge, known as a premium, is paid by users on top of the benchmark London Metal Exchange price to release metal from warehouses. Changes in premiums typically reflect the availability of metal in key trading locations such as Rotterdam and Singapore.
Stockpiles of nickel, which is mostly used to make stainless steel, have slumped 82 percent on the past year. Demand for stainless steel in China and delays to new nickel projects have contributed to ``tight'' market conditions, Widmer said. Nickel prices on the LME rose to a record on April 24.
``Stainless-steel production in China is sucking up so much of the available nickel that everyone else has difficulty finding the material,'' Widmer said yesterday in a telephone interview.
The average premium paid in U.S. locations was $1,400 a ton, $1,764 in Europe and $904 in Japan, Widmer said.
China's output of stainless steel may rise 37 percent this year to 7.35 million tons, metals research firm Heinz H. Pariser said March 21. Delays and cost increases have affected nickel projects under development by BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest miner, and Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce.
New nickel production won't be enough to meet increasing demand due to underinvestment in previous years, Widmer said. Output and demand will be ``roughly balanced'' this year, he added.
Calyon is among the 11 companies that trade on the LME's dealing floor.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 2, 2007 05:05 EDT
Note that many overseas nickel stocks rose 15-20% overnight, one of the best days EVER!
Will it translate into our market today?
With AGM the best performing stock (no surprise) will we see $1.50 by the end of next week? I think thats optomistic; it is more likely by the end of the financial year. But some hold that view.
But holders of all Nickel stocks- lets hope todays a good one!
It's out there - $64,000 OZ a ton for Nickel.
Just imagine the profit for all Nickel Producers for this quarter.
And the take over Mania still happening.AGM in play at the moment with Jinchuan getting cheap discounted shares, to bad about the existing shareholders :(, I guess the piggy directors do not care. I mean they should have been offered to all shareholders 1st, shouldn't have they [?][?]
Now Nickel racing along could BHP decide to take out MCR, IGO and SMY, or are they content to let them do all the hard work.
WSA and JBM, both excellent deposits, but big parcels held tightly by directors, what price will they command [?][?][?]
LSG truely under the hammer.:(
MRE well it looks like Barclays are hunting to stop a full takeover or want a big commission for their share of the pie[:p]
Cheers [B)][}:)]
"And the take over Mania still happening.AGM in play at the moment with Jinchuan getting cheap discounted shares, to bad about the existing shareholders , I guess the piggy directors do not care. I mean they should have been offered to all shareholders 1st, shouldn't have they "
What a strange thing to post!
Existing shareholders will benefit hugely from this share issue long term. A hugely signifant event well recognised by the market.
When you have been about the sharemarket for a little longer you will realise that share issues like this are nearly always at a discount. And this was the case at the last shareholder issue where shareholders got 10% discount.
Tricha for someone who posts a lot here you have a great deal yet to learn!
I am a share holder of AGM and approve of this so called discount buy in. The buyer is giving a lot more than he is getting. He gives stability, plus finance at a time when the company requires it. He also gives an insurance policy against a hostile take over. I bought in just over four months ago at a much lower price than this so called discounted buy so i ended up with a better discount from only four months ago. MACDUNK
U have got a very short term memory problem Ghosta - "I agree that this practice, which is quite legal and commonly adopted, stinks."
I can not be bothered going back to what u wrote about it on Hotcopper
Ghosta.
Further more TFE had a share issue recently, they got a huge premium for them [:p] But unlike AGM, dodgy.
Unfortunately AGM now running on hype and are over valued, for 750 million shares and a lousy 8,000 tons of nickel
Cheers[B)][}:)]
Tricha please stop posting in giant letters, I know you want to be noticed, but its offensive.
The practice I was referring to that you highlighted was directors issuing shares to directors.
Your jealousy as to the continued sucess of AGM seem unabated. I can tell you now this sucess will continue and that unless you buy in now, you will have to be content to watch us all grow rich from the sidelines. You seem to get angrier and angrier as your jealousy grows. This is a shame. Just because you were unable to pick AGM as an obvious winner doesnt mean you are a failure in life.
Tricha
grow up.... Ghosta is right, your use of big lettering is obtrusive, offensive, annoying and really does pizst people off.
Agree with Ghosta regards your attitude AGM.
Ok you missed out here, let it rest.
Cheers
JK
Cash rich MCR already holding some TTR wouldn't take much for MCR to own all of TTR-Nickel,gold,copper,silver,plant-current sp 9.5c(NTA-12c analyst valued TTR 25c+ in 06 )
-Only wish the TTR holders would sell me some more of there Shares;) Cheap
From a previous Mincor announcement - The tenement lies on the eastern flank of the Ravensthorpe Greenstone Belt, approximately 300 kilometres south-west of Kambalda. Tectonic mined the Rav 8 ore body between 2000 and 2005, extracting 15,931 tonnes of nickel metal from 460,169 tonnes of ore at a grade of 3.46% nickel. Mining ceased upon exhaustion of the known ore reserves;), at the comparatively shallow depth of 270 metres below surface.
Mincor said it believed the Rav 8 tenement held outstanding exploration potential for further nickel
sulphide mineralisation, at shallow depths and close to existing underground infrastructure. Immediate
target areas include the zone directly down-plunge of the old mine, where previous exploration drilling
extended no further than approximately 60 metres beyond the old workings.
"We are very pleased to have reached this agreement with Tectonic”, said Mincor’s managing director
David Moore, “it adds a substantial new asset to our portfolio of nickel growth projects".
Moore said that Mincor believed the Rav 8 tenement held the same potential that the Company had
identified at Carnilya Hill, where mineralisation that apparently terminated at a relatively shallow depth
was subsequently found to re-form further down plunge.
Well, well, well, we have a member with 37 posts telling a member with 1,016 contributions how to post on this forum !!!
I can't find any forum rule that says you can't post important statements in larger type.
Tricha, please continue to post as often as you like, in whatever format you like, and keep all us metal junkies up to date.
I would like to second that. TRICHA has brought to my attention shares that I might have overlooked. Keep up the ramping I am making heaps from some of the shares you brought to my attention.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by sparrow
Well, well, well, we have a member with 37 posts telling a member with 1,016 contributions how to post on this forum !!!
I can't find any forum rule that says you can't post important statements in larger type.
Tricha, please continue to post as often as you like, in whatever format you like, and keep all us metal junkies up to date.
MACDUNK.
Hold AGM,SMY,MCR,IGO.on your market
-IMHO nothing wrong with Tricha's bold writing -Investors should be more concerned with what's in BOLD
Patricia wouldnt be tolerated on an Australian forum site, posting old news and Bold letters to draw attention to himself.
But hey this is a NZ site!
<h1>I agree with</h1><h2>sparrow there</h2><h2> are no rules that say you cannot</h2><h1> use large text or</h1> colored <h2>font on this forum,that is what theforum code is for.I think there should be lots more interestingimages</h2>http://www.gorillafingers.com/web_im...ut_gorilla.jpg <h1>as well so the pages can take longer to</h1><h3>load and fill up</h3><h1> quicker. keep up the good work tricha.</h1>http://www.oneposter.com/UserData/Po...oster_5456.jpgQuote:
quote:Originally posted by sparrow
Well, well, well, we have a member with 37 posts telling a member with 1,016 contributions how to post on this forum !!!
I can't find any forum rule that says you can't post important statements in larger type.
Tricha, please continue to post as often as you like, in whatever format you like, and keep all us metal junkies up to date.
There is nothing wrong with being BOLD if it is important !!!
I only wish that I knew how to do it
JBmurc - Cash rich MCR already holding some TTR wouldn't take much for MCR to own all of TTR-Nickel,gold,copper,silver,plant-current sp 9.5c(NTA-12c analyst valued TTR 25c+ in 06 )
-Only wish the TTR holders would sell me some more of there Shares Cheap
I've been trying to buy this penny dreadful all week a bit cheaper JBmurc, bit the bullet today.
Also bought another dog Cullen Resources today @ 4.4 cents, Forestina Nickel venture with Hannahs Reward and U tenaments.
More on it all later, lunch time.
About 36 of those 37 posts are either ramping AGM to the hilt or abusing anyone who doesn't agree with him. Quality contributions indeed.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by sparrow
Well, well, well, we have a member with 37 posts telling a member with 1,016 contributions how to post on this forum !!!
Quality... not quantity. Ive offered what has turned out to be absolutely excellent information to readers of this and other Forums. There are a lot of grateful people who were smart enough to follow my and others advice on AGM.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal
About 36 of those 37 posts are either ramping AGM to the hilt or abusing anyone who doesn't agree with him. Quality contributions indeed.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by sparrow
Well, well, well, we have a member with 37 posts telling a member with 1,016 contributions how to post on this forum !!!
Funny thing, though, those that didnt buy AGM seem to be extremely jealous and have posted sour postings here. A shame.
Meanwhile AGM is STILL the best buy of the nickel stocks as production approaches. Many believe the SP will be $2.50 by Christmas. I believe the figure is right, but dont know when this price will be achieved- could be within six months of either side of Christmas time.
From memory, Tricha was buying MCR a bit over a year ago between 60-70c and at one stage had about 100,000 MCR shares. They are now $3.85 and pretty sure he's still got most of them. Do the maths on that, I don't think he's jealous of anyone who's made good gains on AGM.Quote:
quote:
Funny thing, though, those that didnt buy AGM seem to be extremely jealous and have posted sour postings here. A shame.
I think its a pretty normal reaction to be a bit peeved at someone who has a negative view of a stock you hold. I've felt that way myself but it pays to move past that. I think its healthy to hear differing views and opinions. And sometimes its a good idea to pay attention to someone who holds a negative view of a company, because maybe they've got a good point. I'm not saying that Tricha's view of AGM is "right" and ghosta and others are "wrong", just speaking in general terms.
Heres an article from the Australian. Its time to take your profits from nickel shares- the exception being AGM which presently priced on nickel at $14000 US a tonne.
COPPER, nickel and lead, the best-performing commodities in the past four months, might be the worst by year's end.
On Wall Street, a growing chorus is insisting that rising metal supplies are outpacing demand. From Goldman Sachs to JP Morgan Chase to Societe Generale, there are warnings of a mania that is showing all the signs of a climax.
"This is a real bubble," says metals trader David Threlkeld, who first got the world's attention in 1996 when he showed that Sumitomo's copper hoarding would lead to a market collapse.
"We have an enormous amount of unsold copper," says Mr Threlkeld, president of Resolved.
The metals bears are convinced that consumption might drop partly because China, the biggest user, is attempting to reduce investment through interest rate increases and lending curbs after its economy expanded 11.1 per cent in the first quarter.
Also weakening demand is a slowing US economy and a consumer-driven pursuit of alternatives to historically expensive copper and nickel, according to Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.
Copper will decline 30 per cent to an average of $US5650 ($6780) a tonne in the fourth quarter from more than $US8000 today, according to the median of 12 analysts' forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Nickel and lead will drop about 50 per cent from last week's record prices to $US24,450 a tonne for nickel and $US1000 for lead, the data show.
The anticipated slump would depress exports from Australia, Canada and Chile, wipe out more than $US22 billion ($26.5 billion) on the London Metal Exchange and squeeze the profits at mining companies, including BHP Billiton, the world's largest.
Many of the bears have been wrong so far this year. An investor who acted on the advice of JP Morgan missed gains of 67 per cent for nickel, 30 per cent for copper and 41 per cent for lead, the best-performing commodities in the 26-member UBS Bloomberg CMCI index.
That compares with a 6.2 per cent increase for the S&P 500 index and 2 per cent for US Treasuries, according to Merrill Lynch indexes.
"We're sticking to our guns" because "prices are unsustainable", says London-based Jon Bergtheil, head of global metals strategy at the bank. Nickel might average $US35,328 a tonne in 2007, down from $US51,600, because stainless steel makers might buy less in the second half, he says.
In February, Bergtheil said that nickel would decline 25 per cent in 2007. The metal, used to make stainless steel, has since gained 40 per cent.
Nickel might plunge to $US30,000 a tonne by the end of 2008 because the current level is "overdone", Goldman Sachs analysts led by James Gutman say. "There is a risk of longer-term demand destruction."
Stainless steel producers are cancelling orders, he says. His colleague in London, Jeffrey Currie, head of global commodities research, is less bearish, saying he expects metals prices to be "trading sideways" this year.
World supplies of copper outpaced demand by about 50,000 tonnes in the first quarter, Stockholm-based copper producer Boliden AB says. Global output rose 8 per cent in the period, twice as much as demand, the company says.
In Chile, the world's biggest supplier of the metal, production jumped 13 per cent in March as high prices encouraged miners to increase supply. Output rose to 502,106 tonnes from 442,410 tonnes a year earlier, the Santiago-based National Statistics Institute says.
Nickel stockpiles tracked by the LME are up almost 60 per cent since dropping in February to 2982 tonnes, their lowest since July 1991 and barely enough to supply the world for a day.
Lead inventories are also rising, up 42 per cent since March on the LME, to 43,825 tonnes. A surplus of 25,000 tonnes of lead might exist next year, from a deficit of 35,000 tonnes forecast this year, Natixis Commodity Markets says.
The metal's record price
Boy have you got a lot to learn about the stockmarket.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by ghosta
Its time to take your profits from nickel shares- the exception being AGM which presently priced on nickel at $14000 US a tonne.
I assure you that if there is a nickel price correction that AGM and the other nickel developers will be trashed more than the nickel producers.
AGM fell more than 50% in the last correction, far more than any nickel producer.
Long term predictions for nickel are $14000 per tonne and AGM isn't producing in the short term so AGM is being fully valued.
Heavy Metal you make me laugh!
When you learn a bit about nickel and nickel shares you can post here, but while you have NFI it may be better not to post as you look so foolish!
Quote:
quote:Originally posted by ghosta
When you learn a bit about nickel and nickel shares you can post here, but while you have NFI it may be better not to post as you look so foolish!
AGM forecast 09PE of 12 vs Jubilee 11 - that's crazy pricing for an unproven nickel developer vs producer sitting on a world class deposit. AGM is currently priced for perfection.
Your one-liner ramp and abuse style might be typical Hotcopper behaviour but it's not welcome here. Might be time for the moderator to step in.
Maybe we call in GHOSTBUSTERS!
Actually I've stuck it on ignore ;)
Cheers [B)][}:)]
Gee some Ni stocks I follow have had a huge day! For example GME, EYE, ALB, FCN; breakouts all over the place.
:D
Yes lets hope the article is wrong and we dont have to sell of our nickel stocks (except for AGM of course) But I dont think they meant that nickel would necessarily fall THIS WEEK, I think they thought later in the year. So that give us time to get out of stocks that are going to be overvalued if the price drops.
Thats if you think they are right.
As the article showed doom sayers have been proven wrong many times, no one wants an explosive bubble then bang down they all go but looking at the fundamentals behinds the increase, a lot of the resources were supressed so it needed some catch up, how far you ride the wave is your choice.
Nickel May Rise 20% on Smelter Shortage, Credit Suisse Says
By Madelene Pearson
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- The price for nickel, used to make stainless steel, may rise 20 percent as a shortage of smelters to process ore into metal constrains supply, Credit Suisse Group said in a report.
Nickel may reach $65,000 a metric ton in the ``near term,'' Credit Suisse London-based analysts led by Jeremy Gray and Eily Ong said in a report dated May 16. Smelting output may grow at 4.6 percent this year compared with demand growth as high as 5 percent should stainless steelmakers rebuild inventories and global economic growth increase, the report said.
Nickel for immediate delivery rose to a record $54,050 a metric ton in London on May 15 as China's economic growth fueled demand for the metal. Cost overruns and delays at BHP Billiton Ltd.'s Ravensthorpe and Cia. Vale do Rio Doce's Goro projects, the two largest nickel mines under construction, exacerbated supply shortfalls, helping drive price increases.
``Prices will remain strong over the next two years given the lack of supply growth until 2009 at the earliest,'' Gray and Ong wrote in the report. ``The current profile of new smelters is unlikely to be enough to feed ongoing strong demand from the stainless steel industry in the next two years.''
Nickel for immediate delivery rose $1,800, or 3.5 percent, to $54,025 a ton on May 18. Prices have jumped 155 percent in the past year as inventories plunged 78 percent to an amount equal to less than two days of global consumption.
Only three of 11 nickel mine and smelter projects under way, including Ravensthorpe and Goro, will start production before 2010, the analysts said.
Risk of Delay
``Any delay in the 2008 startup of Ravensthorpe and the 2009 startup of Goro will clearly make our global smelter growth forecasts of 4.6 percent in 2007 and 5.3 percent growth in 2008 look too aggressive and would help underpin the current strength in nickel prices,'' the report said.
The forecast by Credit Suisse compares to the $55,000 a ton estimate of Standard Bank analyst Michael Skinner made April 26.
Prices are expected to stay ``strong'' over the next two years given the lack of smelter supply growth until 2009, the report said. They may also gain should an anticipated increase in production of lower grade ferro nickel from China be overestimated, the analysts wrote.
``The strength in today's nickel price is a good lead indicator to suggest that the ramp up of Chinese production is clearly taking longer than expected to make an impact,'' they said. ``Our suspicion is that the ramp up of Chinese production will not make a significant dent in global supply until 2009 at the earliest.''
The bank is assuming demand growth of 3 percent this year, rising to 5 percent should stainless steelmakers build inventories in the third quarter. A ``pronounced'' cutback to stainless steel production may damp demand for nickel and threaten prices, Credit Suisse wrote.
To contact the reporter on this story: Madelene Pearson in Melbourne on mpearson1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 20, 2007 20:50 EDT
Double edged sword, has the worm turned or is this just a glitch.[?][?][?]
Nickel Falls as Stockpiles Signal Slowing Usage; Copper Rises
By Brett Foley
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel fell to a two-month low in London as an increase in stockpiles fueled speculation stainless-steel producers are reducing usage of the metal. Copper gained.
Inventories of nickel tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose for a fourth day, the exchange said in a daily report, taking the gain this week to 44 percent. Stainless-steel makers such as ThyssenKrupp AG, the world's biggest, and South Korea's Posco have said they plan to increase output of nickel-free products to cut costs.
``Until recently the market has been ignoring a number of bearish factors such as clear signs that demand in the stainless-steel market has slowed and increasing levels of substitution,'' Stephen Briggs, an analyst at Societe Generale in London, said today in a telephone interview. ``Rising stockpiles have been the trigger for a change in sentiment.''
Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME fell $400, or 0.9 percent, to $45,800 a metric ton as of 9:26 a.m. local time, paring this year's gain to 37 percent. Earlier, the contract fell as low at $45,100, the lowest since March 30.
Nickel production will outpace usage by 70,000 metric tons this year, the International Nickel Study Group said May 14. Stockpiles monitored by the LME rose by 5.4 percent to 7,200 metric tons today. They surged 27 percent yesterday, the most since Sept. 11, 2003.
Among other LME-traded metals, copper advanced $79, or 1.1 percent, to $7,280 a ton, aluminum added $1 to $2,822 and zinc increased $19 to $3,669. Lead slid $10 to $2,120 a ton and tin lost $25 to $13,800.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: May 24, 2007 04:47 EDT
Is this a red alert or a red herring[?][?][?][?]
STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCERS SET TO ACTIVELY PROMOTE NICKEL-FREE GRADES
The global stainless steel scene is changing rapidly. Customer backlash against the rising cost of nickel has been taken on board by the producers. Mills are now taking seriously market demand for low or non nickel grades.
Posco has launched a nickel free stainless steel into its portfolio. This follows similar actions earlier by Japanese producers. Outokumpu, which has traditionally been mainly a supplier of austenitic grades, is to increase its production of ferritic types. This has involved a significant investment in new equipment. Output of ferritic grades is also to be expanded from the new melting shop at Lianzhong, in China.
Global supplies of 300 series material have in the past formed 75 percent of total stainless deliveries. It is interesting to note that Thyssen Krupp recently announced that it may lift output of nickel free steel from the existing figure of 30 percent up to 35 percent. We have reports that an Arcelor Mittal senior executive sees the potential to push up production of non nickel grades to 70 percent in the long term.
The growth in nickel demand in the future is likely to be slower than the overall expansion of the stainless steel sector. This is even more probable now that the producers are investing in new facilities to manufacture ferritic specifications. This fresh capacity will be actively promoted by the mills which was not the case in the past.
This situation proves the point that clever speculation on the LME can only work for a limited period. Any commodity can be priced to unacceptable levels but eventually market fundamentals will prevail. When the price of a product becomes excessive, buyers will seek out substitute materials or in this case grades. 31.05.2007
Source: MEPS - Stainless Steel Review - click here for a free sample copy.
Now Available - MEPS Steel Prices On-Line is now forecasting stainless steel prices. Click here for more details
This is very good example of free market mechanism for the textbook. Nevertheless, the price will stay at a reasonable level and the revenue for those mining company sustained for another period until the subsitute been roll out and accepted by the consumers.
At $50,000 /ton seem too good to be true, and those news just justify that. Perhaps somewhere between $30,000 ~ $40,000 /ton will be more sustainable?? [:I] me no expert~ but if price drop to lower range, how many of the miner can stand?
Viking
$30,000 to $40,000 per tonne is still a very favourable price for nickel miners. The nickel price did not reach $30,000 until late 2006 and many miners were making very healthy profits at prices far below this before that time
If a mine is not profitable at $30,000 per tonne nickel then dont touch it --- it will be a big dog !
Very true Whiteheron~
A very quick thought~ where can we find the average price (for a specific period of time) a mine company sold their material for? I remember seen it somewhere though the spot price of Ni in LME was hitting $40,000/ton but MCR's average contracted rate was only around $24,000 at the time. Know how much they are selling could give us very good idea of how profitable they are, doesn't? besides, we could also be cleared from the false impression of the high spot price of the metal. [:I]
Viking
If you have a look at a recent Quarterly Report for MCR on the ASX announcements site you will probably get the info you are looking for
Remember that MCR only gets 65 % of the nickel price from BHPs Cambalda smelter --- BHP get the balance for smeltering, refining, marketing etc
Also MCR has around 30 % of its production hedged at less than current nickel prices
These, and other things all go into the final results achieved
MCR is an absolutely choice company --- it was hugely underpriced but is now nearer true value, although in my opinion would still be a very worthwhile long term hold
And just elevated into the ASX 200 making it more attractive to institutions
Thank you, Whiteheron~[^]
Got all the information there :) yes that A$24,242 per tonne in the report was that number in the back of my mind ~~ hehehe....
China's Demand for Nickel Could Hit 400,000 Tonnes by 2010
By Interfax-China
30 May 2007 at 09:54 AM GMT-04:00
SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China's demand for nickel might hit 400,000 tonnes in 2010 on growing demand from the stainless steel industry and battery production, an official with the Ministry of Land Resources said at the China Nickel 2007 conference today.
"China's nickel raw materials supply will remain tight until 2010, and more than half of that supply will be reliant on imports," Zhang Mei, a researcher with the Information Center under the MLR said.
China will only be able to supply 124,000 tonnes of nickel domestically by 2010 due to limited mining production in China, Zhang said.
China had verified nickel ore reserves of 9.51 million tonnes as of 2005, spread over 97 sites, with 98% of the mining sites under full production. Gansu Province has 56.3% of the country's total nickel reserves, while 34.6% of reserves are located in other provinces, including Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan and Qinhuai.
In March, Gansu Province-based Jinchuan Nickel Group, a company that controls 90% of China’s nickel output, reduced its 2007 nickel export target to 3,000 tonnes due to pressure from the increased export tax raised by state regulators.
Jinchuan's nickel exports for the first quarter of the year reached 1,100 tonnes, according to the company.
China raised its nickel export tax from 2% to 15% last November, as part of a state macro-control policy to impede on high-energy consuming industries and narrow the growing trade surplus.
Zhang said around two-thirds of nickel demand comes from the stainless steel industry and stainless steel output may hit 9 million tonnes in 2010.
China's stainless steel output was 3.6 million tonnes last year, swelling 67.72% from the previous year. China produced 419 million tonnes of crude steel in 2006, up 18.5% from a year earlier.
In the first quarter of this year, China imported 2.2 million tonnes of primary nickel ore, while imports in March stood at 1.03 million tonnes, representing an 80.7% increase from the previous month.
Last year, China imported 3.78 million tonnes of nickel ore, a 6.8 fold increase compared with the previous year, according to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs.
Total nickel ore imports amounted to RMB 3.41 billion ($440 million) in 2006, 1.5 times the amount for 2005. However, average import prices declined by 67.7% to RMB 903.26 ($116.40) per tonne.
Indonesia and the Philippines are the major countries that export nickel to China.
China's nickel ore imports from the Philippines reached 3.34 million tonnes, up 11.6% from 2005, which accounted for 88.5% of China's total nickel ore imports. In 2005, China's imports were mainly from Australian nickel mines.
© Interfax-China 2007.
This article comes from Interfax China Commodities Daily, a daily digest produced by Interfax News Agency in Mainland China. To receive 10 free copies of this, please e-mail david.harman@interfax-news.com.
If u want pure Nickel, go smell the coffee[:p]
Resource Stocks Mag June edition- article of WSA
Too long to write can order online.
quote"A bright new star and heir to the Jubilee crown is Western Areas, which brought its Flying Fox project in WA's Forrestania Belt, 400km east of Perth in Production in December last Year."
quote"WSA flagship flying fox mine is one of the highest grade nickel deposits in the world with projected costs of $2.43 a pound, making it the lowest cost producer in Australia."quote" Its is a measure of the recent takeover inspired decimation of the Canadian resources sector that WSA 2008 production of 8000t will make the dual listed company the largest Canadian-listed pure nickel producer"
quote"with over 208,000t of total project mineable nickel worth over $12.5billion, the company aims to have three operational mines"
Grab a copy of Resource stocks article on all nickel produces in australia.
WSA stands out
Update - Comment - Ever read something that just made you shake your head? We really thought we could be in big trouble with nickel prices today, when we read that Jindal Stainless of India was reporting increased usage of nickel. You may ask, so what? Well, according to a stock analysis of the company in 2005, Jindal called itself the "global leader in chrome manganese 200 series stainless with 10 years of R&D efforts to develop such a special grade". (source) One of the producers mainly responsible for pushing a less nickel content stainless on the world, one of the stainless substitutions we are hearing so much about, is now saying it's using more nickel! Good grief! Oh well, what should we expect from a country that thinks bulls are sacred!
There is no substitute for quality and I believe that nickel produces the BEST stainless steel known
PLEASE challenge me if you consider that I am wrong
I therefor consider that the demand for nickel will remain strong and see no likelyhood of a significant fall in demand --- in fact I see a continuation of nickel suppliers struggling to keep up with demand
Just the process of increasing stock levels to a more sustainable level may be quite a challenge for miners
"AGM, with nickel dropping will find it harder to get to mining stage"
Patricia has no idea about these shares and sold hers at 33c, thinking it was top. She doesnt realise that the company is stockpilimng ore and just finishing their processing plant. Present SP of $0.96c prices nickel at around $10000US/ tonne, so huge upside will see this share at $2+ by Xmas, probably earlier.
This stock always was going to be the pick of the nickel stocks and so it is showing itself to be.
Recently oversold in last nickel "scare" so priced for a bargain entry at the moment.
mate...you are living in fantasy land.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by ghosta
"AGM, with nickel dropping will find it harder to get to mining stage"
Patricia has no idea about these shares and sold hers at 33c, thinking it was top. She doesnt realise that the company is stockpilimng ore and just finishing their processing plant. Present SP of $0.96c prices nickel at around $10000US/ tonne, so huge upside will see this share at $2+ by Xmas, probably earlier.
This stock always was going to be the pick of the nickel stocks and so it is showing itself to be. Entry into ASX200 later this month will provide an immediate boost.
Recently oversold in last nickel "scare" so priced for a bargain entry at the moment.
MCR & SMY join the ASX200 on 15 June.
When does AGM enter the ASX200??
Don't prick his little fantasy bubble, he is not of this world anyway. Nor are his fantasy ideas that AGM is bulletproof in any correction.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by steve fleming
mate...you are living in fantasy land.
MCR & SMY join the ASX200 on 15 June.
When does AGM enter the ASX200??
"Nor are his fantasy ideas that AGM is bulletproof in any correction."
You are about to learn something Heavy Metal.....
Current nickel producers like JBM and SMY etc have risen dramatically in recent times in response to the current high nickel prices. Should a significant reduction in the price of nickel occur- say 50% drop- then these share will drop in price. There will probably be an over reaction and the shares will settle to a value less than what they are priced at now.
A share like AGM which is about to sell its first batch of nickel in 4-6 months time will not be fully valued until it is actually producing. The market allows a considerable margin for risk, as the mining industry traditionally runs overbudget and over time. Agm looks like coming in on budget and perhaps even early. Remarkable. But the market out there has assigned the normal risk margin to the project because like some of the posters on this site, they dont know any better.
In fact a regular poster on this site thought that if nickel prices dropped it would make it harder for AGM to start production. A strange remark really as it would not make one iota of difference. But thats how ignorant most people who havent done any research are!
So if the price of nickel dropped 50% AGM would suffer a drop in its SP by default. It too would be oversold. In the meantime the companies sales begin. The SP of the company would rise in response as the startup risk factor has gone. And guess what- the SP would rise above its PRESENT level till it reached a value commensurate with the nickel price.
Heavy Metal you probably didnt realise it but now you know one reason why AGM is a better buy than existing producers if you are concerned that there may be a drop in the nickel price! Unlike with existing producers you wouldnt have to GUESS the appropriate time to sell out- you just hang on to the shares and your a sure winner!
Ghosta
You are wasting your time trying to reason with the likes of heavy DUH! metal and Co. who have just graduated from middle skool and know evrything about nothing.
Maybe when IQ and age are about the same they might.... mmmm maybe... just MIGHT! be able to grasp something more than Janet meets John.
Meantime thanks for informative posts keep them coming, I am ignorantly happy to know my 300k AGM shares (ave 48c) are looking better with each passing day. Looking forward to ann. re. commissioning party so we can start arranging fares etc. Checked out Strahan links thanks... seems the little village has grown since I was last there 1989.
Cheers
JK
Ghosta
You made this following comment:
According to S&P the only nickel stocks succesfully entering the ASX 200 in June are MCR & SMY...no sign of AGM that i can see.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by ghosta
Entry into ASX200 later this month will provide an immediate boost.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf...uartRebal1.pdf
Are you please able to advise on what basis you made your statement??
hopefully this was not just another attempt at a ramp.....after all, you have already been suspended from hot copper after what you have said about AGM
Ahhh!Quote:
quote:Originally posted by steve fleming
Ghosta
You made this following comment:
According to S&P the only nickel stocks succesfully entering the ASX 200 in June are MCR & SMY...no sign of AGM that i can see.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by ghosta
Entry into ASX200 later this month will provide an immediate boost.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf...uartRebal1.pdf
Are you please able to advise on what basis you made your statement??
hopefully this was not just another attempt at a ramp.....after all, you have already been suspended from hot copper after what you have said about AGM
I see that you have now deleted that comment in your post.
Sorry for catching you out.
AGM is a pretty good stock, it doesn't need baseless ramps for it to do well.
Thank you Stolwyk~
Could I ask a question may seem little silly, but~
the LME price curve, cash price at $50,445~ 15month at $38,870~
http://www.lme.co.uk/nickel.asp
Does that show that they also anticipate price to be lower in the longer term???
Looks like he was suspended for being exposed as a liar, spreading unfounded rumours, making threats as well as blatant ramping. Just a matter of time before he gets kicked off here. Some examples from Hotcopper:Quote:
quote:Originally posted by steve fleming
hopefully this was not just another attempt at a ramp.....after all, you have already been suspended from hot copper after what you have said about AGM
Post 1:
"Hows this for a deal. Myer have these retail now $2999. This week 10% off Now $2700. Plus if you join up to their Mastercard at no cost no fees you get 10% off that. Price now $2430. This comes with No deposit 12 month interest free period, no payments due till Oct 07. So I signed my wife up to this card which we will just chuck in the drawer. She also joined (no cost) Myer reward card and will get $100 gift voucher in 3 months time. To top this off we had the cash ready to make the purchase so I bought shares in Allegiance mining @30c with the money, its already $32c and Ill probably get my Plasma for nothing."
Anyone get a better deal than this!
That's what ghosta posted about 1 year ago. He entered the stock at 32c. make of that what you will but to me it says it all. So much for long term holder from the bad old days of 5c.
Post 2:
Typo error. He entered at 30c and this was posted on the DTV forum in May 2006. Liar liar pants on fire ghosta!!
Post 3:
I love exposing liars and to think some of you guys thought he was the real deal. Just have a good read of what he posted. Are they the words of a real professional investor? Are they the words of a real big time shareholder? Getting really excited about saving the $2999 on the TV to put it into AGM at 30c and then get all excited that he might get the TV for nothing with the profits of AGM. Well at 94c, I reckon ghosta has more than paid for his TV. I reckon he is in front to the tune of a whopping $6400 profit on his purchase of 10,000 shares.
You be the judge.
Heavymetal what a dope you are- you copy information posted on another forum and guess what its nearly all incorrect! It was posted on hotcopper by internet troll call "manure' perhaps you are that person!
(A troll is the term used to describe someone who posts madly with the sole objective of upsetting everyone on the forum)
You must learn to do research yourself- you might then make more than lunch money on the stock market.
Yes I admit my research will never be as good as yours - it certainly was news to me that AGM was going to enter the ASX200 this month.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by ghosta
You must learn to do research yourself- you might then make more than lunch money on the stock market.
By the way, keep up those great posts, like your rumour that AGM is offering long term holders steep (and probably illegal) discounts for the SPP.
Anyone else hear anything about shareholder share purchase plan? Story floating around West Coast that shareholders less than 1 year get 5% disc, more than 1 year 10% disc Plus additional 10% for each previous shareholder purchase plan that you have supported.
Heard from one source only so cant be certain about it. But looks like a fair way of rewarding shareholders.
For me that’s 40% off! If SP drops to 90c then shares at 54c. If SP drops to 80c that’s 48c!
Yeehar Squealers- keep dumping those shares!
Hell, You fellas are at it over here too. Does anyone really take anything they read on these sites as completely true? When someone makes a post I assume most do as I do and use that info as a starting point to investigate further. I have found even amounts of conflicting info regarding the future price of nickel everywhere I have looked. This after all is the most significant single factor determining the price of all our nickel stocks. I thought the point to this forum was to pool resources of information rather than to beat ones chest. You fellas really need to get out more. PS You have all in my opinion posted a lot of useful information and I thank you for that.
It is quite easy read up about different companies to get most of the information required. I start off by looking up companies being rampted by the over enthusiastic on this and other sites, then look them all up on the direct broking web site. I get all the news from the past few years, plus the charts, then look up commodity prices and forecasts for whatever it is. I like the rampers, I dont care if they ramp a whole heap of crap or tear each others eyes out, as long as they bring their twisted view points out for me to check out. All the bull dust and contradictory arguements makes me think that Nickel miners will all continue to trend up for the next 12 months at least. I only hold nickel stocks at the moment. MCR, AGM, SMY IGO, all doing very nicely thank you. They are doing so well that my trailing stop loss level, and time line has been dropped to 25% below the highest price. If it all hits the fan and either my stop loss gets triggered, or my time line, then I would still be 70pc up this year. Nickel is in very short supply and high demand, you really only need half a brain to work out what company is best suited. Macdunk
Duncan, Care to speculate on why AGM hasnt bounced back as well as the others in the last few days?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor
It is quite easy read up about different companies to get most of the information required. I start off by looking up companies being rampted by the over enthusiastic on this and other sites, then look them all up on the direct broking web site. I get all the news from the past few years, plus the charts, then look up commodity prices and forecasts for whatever it is. I like the rampers, I dont care if they ramp a whole heap of crap or tear each others eyes out, as long as they bring their twisted view points out for me to check out. All the bull dust and contradictory arguements makes me think that Nickel miners will all continue to trend up for the next 12 months at least. I only hold nickel stocks at the moment. MCR, AGM, SMY IGO, all doing very nicely thank you. They are doing so well that my trailing stop loss level, and time line has been dropped to 25% below the highest price. If it all hits the fan and either my stop loss gets triggered, or my time line, then I would still be 70pc up this year. Nickel is in very short supply and high demand, you really only need half a brain to work out what company is best suited. Macdunk
Heavy Metal: each time you post you look even more foolish.
Anyone here heard anything more about the SPP plan and discounts? Hope it is true....great way of rewarding long term holders. dont know about legal problems, dont see any problems....
Only in your posts Ghosta. Where did you source the info?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by ghosta
Heavy Metal: each time you post you look even more foolish.
Anyone here heard anything more about the SPP plan and discounts? Hope it is true....great way of rewarding long term holders. dont know about legal problems, dont see any problems....
STRAT, It seems logical that a none producing company on a steep uptrend will have more wild swings in sp than the others who are getting the benefit of the high nickel price at the moment. AGM will trend up faster than the others when it goes into full production. The price of nickel is what to look out for, keep that under close watch. AGM is a certainty for a fast rising trend when production gets under way, with a few wild swings before then. macdunk
Don't know if this is of interest.
Clearasmud
http://www.interfax.cn/displayarticl...-METALS-NICKEL
Interview: Nickel Institute comments on the future of the industry in China
Shanghai. April 30. INTERFAX-CHINA - Executives from the Nickel Institute shared with Interfax their insights on nickel use, the growth of nickel demand in China and the development of the nickel recycling industry.
Stephen Barnett, president of the Nickel Institute, and Peter Cutler, European director of market support and development, visited China last week for an internal meeting and to meet with China's nickel heavyweight, Gansu Jinchuan Group. They hope the Chinese firm will join the organization, and also expressed their opinion that there is plenty of future growth potential for nickel use in China, especially in the drive to create cleaner power stations, as opposed to the more traditional uses such as in engineering works, food and construction industries.
Demand in China will be increased by the growing demand for nickel-hydrogen batteries and aside from its use in the chemical, pharmaceutical and other industries, nickel will also play a significant role in pollution controlling emissions-cleaning equipment and waste water treatment facilities.
As nickel is the seventh most common element on the planet, the Nickel Institute is very optimistic that the metal will continue to be in use globally for the foreseeable future.
With main offices in London and Toronto, the Nickel Institute is a non-profit organization established in 2004 through the merger of two organizations, the Nickel Development Institute (NiDI) and the Nickel Producers Environmental Research Association (NiPERA). It represents the interests of most of the world's major nickel producers, and its members are responsible for 88 percent of all nickel production worldwide.
Interfax: In China, more than 65 percent of nickel production serves the downstream stainless steel industry. However, stainless steel makers face great pressure from soaring nickel prices, and many stainless steel makers, even major ones such as Baosteel Group and Taiyuan Iron and Steel Group (TISCO), plan to decrease nickel consumption through the development of new ferritic stainless steel products (non-nickel contained) or low nickel-contained stainless steel. Chinese experts are optimistic about consumption of ferritic stainless steel in the nation, which hopefully will increase to 40 percent of total stainless steel consumption. What are your opinions on this issue?
Barnett: I think the market responds on a supply and demand balance basis. People select different grades of stainless steel containing a nickel alloy that is most appropriate for use in a particular application, which is driven by the cost of the material and also by its properties, whether it is recyclable or not and the total value that material brings, such as in maintenance issues.
The nickel industry reached an all time production high last year of 1.4 million tons of primary nickel and a total of over 2 million tons including scrap. The nickel industry is investing billions of dollars in new capacity, most notably in Australia, Brazil, Canada and New Caledonia, which will come online over the next few years. The nickel industry is totally confident in reaching a balance, responding to the market by building new capacities.
Interfax: Do you think the high price is restraining China's nickel demand?
Barnett: It's a supply-demand balance. It's like any other market, the supply and demand are balanced by whatever the price of the material. That's how economics works. The costs will rise until the supply and demand are in balance. It's that simple.
Interfax: What is driving up China's nickel demand?
Barnett: China's industrialization is the main force driving up nickel demand. In China, nickel plays a large role in building and infrastructure construction, and a significant role in aircraft engines, power stations and pollution control devices used to improve
Excellent news out with coal contract prices going up significantly which implies that the boom is intact.
So upside for most nickel producers to maybe double again in the next 12 monthes and give some of the penny dreadfuls time to become multi baggers, E.G AUZ, CUL, TTR.
Cheers [B)][}:)]
Tight nickel market could see pressure from India – CVRD
The tight nickel market could see pressures increase further in the years ahead if India's burgeoning economy increases its use of the key stainless steelmaking ingredient, the chief financial officer of Brazilian miner Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO), or CVRD, said Thursday.
"Pressure from India is not yet included in the price," Fabio Barbosa said. "Demand could be even more intense if India effectively grows its use of the metal."
Barbosa made the comments during a presentation to Sao Paulo's Association of Analysts and Capital Markets Investment Professionals, or Apimec-SP.
He said that demand has continued to rise as China, India and other developing markets increase their production of stainless steel, with few new nickel projects coming on line to ease the shortage.
"The gap between supply and demand is growing rapidly," Barbosa said.
The tight market has pushed nickel prices to historically high levels, with the three-month contract price on the London Metals Exchange peaking at a record $51,800 a metric ton on May 9.
CVRD forecasts that nickel prices will remain elevated in a range between $40,000 and $45,000 a metric ton in 2008-09, unless the latent price pressures from India emerge, Barbosa said.
The imbalance between supply and demand should be maintained for several years, given that the current nickel projects under development won't be in operation until between 2009 and 2011, Barbosa said.
"Our expectations are very positive for the next few years – and decades," he said.
CVRD expects to produce 287,000 metric tons of nickel in 2007, up from pro-forma output of 251,000 tons in 2006. In October, the company completed its $17.6 billion purchase of Canadian nickel miner Inco.
Barbosa said the company so far is on target for a December 2008 completion of its much-troubled Goro project in the French territory of New Caledonia.
The Goro project is one of the world's largest nickel mines currently under development, with expected production capacity of 60,000 metric tons a year. Goro is seen as a key swing factor in the critically tight nickel market, as well as a key foothold for CVRD in its expansion in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, the mine has been beset with problems that have delayed its development amid rising costs. CVRD's final budget of $3.2 billion is up from initial expectations for development costs of $1.5 billion.
Commercial-scale production is expected to start in early 2009 and ramp up over an 18-month period to full capacity, Barbosa said.
"Our vision for this project is very positive because future expansion could come at much lower cost," he said, noting that development of Goro to its full potential could yield immense gains for the company. Goro has 120 million metric tons of nickel reserves.
CVRD's Onca Puma nickel project in Brazil's Para state is also scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter of 2008, Barbosa said. The $1.4 billion project is expected to start production in 2009, with output of 58,000 metric tons of nickel annually when it reaches full production.
According to Barbosa, CVRD plans to be the world's largest producer of nickel at a production of 500,000 metric tons a year by 2012.
Barbosa said that the company was unfazed by a recent surge in stainless steel alternatives, such as nickel-chromium pig iron or Posco's (PKX) nickel-less stainless steel. There is also increased use of stainless steel products relying on higher contents of manganese or molybdenum, the executive added.
"Demand is not waiting on supply," Barbosa sai
Quote:
quote:Originally posted by steve fleming
hopefully this was not just another attempt at a ramp.....after all, you have already been suspended from hot copper after what you have said about AGM
Good job - Ghosta has been kicked off this site too. Good riddance.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Heavy Metal
Looks like he was suspended for being exposed as a liar, spreading unfounded rumours, making threats as well as blatant ramping. Just a matter of time before he gets kicked off here.
Now back to talking nickel on this thread. Bit of a price correction that had to happen, so the so-called analysts are now calling the nickel price to halve by the end of 2007 on the basis of a 3 week stockpile increase? Give me a break.
Having said that, nickel stockpiles usually start rising around this time of year....
Down to $54,600 a ton OZ, still excellent coin, I certainly hope everyone locked in some profits, hence my interest in oilers of late;)
Nickel Falls to 10-Week Low After London Exchange Changes Rules
By Brett Foley
June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel fell to a 10-week low, erasing its leading position this year on the London Metal Exchange, as stockpiles rose and the bourse imposed new rules to curb what one analyst described as ``collusive'' trading.
Two or more companies each holding 25 percent or more of LME-monitored nickel stockpiles now need to make more metal available to other buyers. Inventories tracked by the LME increased 2.4 percent to 8,604 tons, the highest since July 10.
``It's a clear signal that the LME plans to act against this type of collusive market behavior,'' said John Kemp, a London- based analyst at Sempra Metals Ltd., one of 11 companies trading on the floor of the LME. ``Stockpiles have been rising and there doesn't appear to be a shortage of physical metal.''
Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME declined $2,150, or 4.7 percent, to $43,350 a metric ton as of 5:20 p.m. in London. Earlier, it fell 5.7 percent to $42,900, the lowest compared with intraday prices since March 28. Nickel has gained 30 percent this year, compared with 37 percent for lead. Nickel traded at a record $51,800 on May 9.
LME-monitored stockpiles have risen 29 percent this year. Prices probably will halve in the next several months as supply increases, Citigroup Inc. analysts Alan Heap and Alex Tonks said in a June 5 report.
Hedge funds are driving prices higher by speculating against metal producers that have sold forward their production in anticipation of lower prices, Citigroup said.
Nickel for immediate delivery is $1,350 a ton more expensive than the benchmark three-month contract, 52 percent below yesterday's rate. Such a decline in the so-called cash price indicates more availability of metal stored at LME-monitored warehouses.
Lending Fees
Lending fees for next-day delivery of the metal dropped 90 percent to $20 a ton, from yesterday's rate of $200.
The price of nickel may decline further if stainless-steel producers use more alternative materials to cut costs, Sempra's Kemp said. Companies such as South Korea's Posco, Finland's Outokumpu Oyj and Germany's ThyssenKrupp AG are promoting nickel- free or lower-nickel forms of stainless steel, Kemp said.
RE: stolwyk's link~
Wow, can they do that~ its like if the monetary policy gets tightened and money reserve is low~ bank can "instruct" us to "must lend our money" kind of thing, doesn't?
How would this translate for Ni market in the near future?
Tricha "Down to $54,600 a ton OZ, still excellent coin, I certainly hope everyone locked in some profits, hence my interest in oilers of late"
Sit up ppl! Even Tricha the great metals bull is taking profits...we all better run for cover! :D
My biggest holding is now NWE and also taking a small punt in UKL and EMR with HRR a long term hold...but 50% cash, and trying to increase that...
Sold out of MCR, AGS, SMM a few weeks ago...
If the LME are forcing Nickel owners to lend out their stock ( Which is theft and got to be a jail able offence in my book ) then this hardly equates to a surplus but rather desperate action in a shortage [:0]
STRAT
Here here
I have done a lot of research on nickel and I am totally convinced that demand is outstripping supply and will continue to do so for some considerable time
The nickel price may settle a bit but is in no danger of collapsing in my opinion, as some have suggested
Interesting times ahead !!!
WHITE HERON, I am in total agreement with you on that one, demand is greater than supply. They can fiddle the numbers,cheat,steal, do whatever, demand is still greater than supply. In the end thats all that counts. I see nickel producing mining stocks continue to trend up, until supply catches up with demand, which wont happen in the short to medium term. Macdunk
Just look at the way Oil stocks trended up then down on the price of oil in recent years.
Zinc did exactly the same thing late last year, but in a much shorter time frame, zinc stocks went up and the zinc price went down with the Zinc stocks corresponding to the zinc price.
You do not have to be a rocket scientist to work out Nickel stocks are rising and the price is plummenting.
Regardless if this is a only a short term blip ( six monthes ), once nickel cracks $20 and heads rapidly back to $16, do you really think the fund managers are going to sit on their nickel shares [?][?][?]
The big problem is these Fund Managers follow herd mentality and tend to over react.
(So I hope I have learnt my lession from the Zinc) Nothing like taking profits, locking in gains and come out fighting another day.
Smell the Coffee!
Cheers [B)][}:)]
Tricha, have you off-loaded many of your nickel stocks? What about your old favourites such as MCR and WSA?
Huang Chung - "Tricha, have you off-loaded many of your nickel stocks? What about your old favourites such as MCR and WSA?"
It's like this Huang Chung, no one, absolutely no one ( I'm talking about Nickel company CEO's and guru's ) has ever as far as I know, got close to predicting the nickel price. It's unpredictable! The devils metal [}:)]
I could be right or I could be wrong, but on Friday I dropped off all my Nickel Stocks after closely studying the LME Nickel historical charts on stock levels and price.
I blew it 6 monthes ago with PEM and CBH, because I reacted to slowly to the Zinc charts.
Cheers [B)][}:)]
P.S and it was before I read the below this weekend ;)
There's trickery in base metals gameBRIAN MILNER
Globe and Mail Update
E-mail Brian Milner | Read Bio | Latest Columns
June 8, 2007 at 7:03 PM EDT
Anyone who spends a few minutes chatting with David Threlkeld will come away convinced that the overheated commodities market — or at least the base metals chunk of it — is about to blow up and that any investors who stick around are about to lose their shirts.
What happened to nickel this week only confirms his gloomy assessment, based on personal experience as a long-time metals trader and adviser, that the market is essentially rigged — and not in favour of ordinary investors.
Nickel futures plunged nearly 6 per cent Thursday on the London Metal Exchange and another 1.4 per cent Friday to close at $42,300 (U.S.) a tonne, well off the record $51,650 reached in May.
Some analysts offered the usual explanations for the sharp reversal of fortune — weaker demand, higher inventories, a long overdue market correction. And, oh yes, there was the small matter of the LME's decision to intervene in the market over suspicions of collusion among the small number of players who control the world's trading and supply.
“Everybody loves to play games. And at the end of the day, you run out of room. We've seen it time after time,” says Mr. Threlkeld. Today, he runs his own trading and consulting firm in Scottsdale, Ariz., but he is best-known for exposing a multi-billion-dollar scam to corner the copper market when he was a top-drawer trader in London back in 1991.
Are we witnessing more manipulation at work? Definitely, he says resignedly, and not only in nickel but the other base metals as well.
“You have all these metals at absolutely stupid numbers, which is unsustainable. And the question is: When reality returns, does it return in a week or a year?”
Here's how Mr. Threlkeld views what has been unfolding in nickel. Producers, hedge funds and other key participants have driven prices up and kept them artificially high, in part by withholding nickel from the market and squeezing short-sellers.
The LME has rules against such manipulation, requiring holders of the metal to lend it back into the marketplace when stockpiles reach a certain level. This week, it changed those rules to cut the amount that can be kept out of the market.
But no one, including the LME, really knows how big the nickel and other metal positions actually are, because a lot of the trading is done “over-the-counter,” says Mr. Threlkeld. “You can only try to guess what exposures are, and you've got no idea what bank exposures are in derivatives or guaranteed prices,” he adds. “My sense is that the LME has one foot on a land mine and one foot in a trap.”
The commodities market has never been for the faint of heart. And even such perpetual bulls as Jim Rogers acknowledge that a correction in nickel and other base metals has been long overdue.
“Something that has gone up that much that fast often has a significant correction. So it would not surprise me at all if nickel went down 50 per cent.” That's not a prediction, Mr. Rogers hastens to add. “I'm just saying that nickel is overdue for a tidy correction, given the scope of what's happened.”
Even after the recent selloff
So Tricha, I guess we'll all have to get used to you being an oiler for a while (plus some updates on Goldstream and Territory Iron of course). :D
Shocking ramping in my opinion , no doubt you are now short metals and are bombarding not only this board but the australain chatboards too . I npoticed your posts on hotcopper site
tend to agree...
the poster concerned posts the below on the 3rd
""So upside for most nickel producers to maybe double again in the next 12 monthes and give some of the penny dreadfuls time to become multi baggers, E.G AUZ, CUL, TTR.""
by the 8th we have a wee u - turn....
""Down to $54,600 a ton OZ, still excellent coin, I certainly hope everyone locked in some profits""
and by the 10th we are advised.....
""You do not have to be a rocket scientist to work out Nickel stocks are rising and the price is plummenting.""
what a difference a week can make hey.!!
I think you fellas are being hard on Tricha. At 1099 posts he has a lot to say. We all know what a difference a week can make in this game and all regular posters who post daily are posting their thoughts for that day. Having a change of mind and posting it is hardly ramping but keeping a change of opinion to ones self could be.
I think as long as tricha has declear his position (in this case sold all his metals) will be a fair call. We the reader had to formulate our own view on it, considering he is coming from a different footing than those who still holds them.
Disc: Hold BHP/MCR/ZFX/RIO in resources
Crikey - Nickel down 5.8% in early trade.
Its really finding it hard to find a bottom over the last week.
Yep, Smell that coffee!
Strat - "We all know what a difference a week can make in this game" Exactly.
Viking - "We the reader had to formulate our own view on it"Exactly, some people are still in kindergarten.My spelling is pretty bad, but really australain :(
Some people know whats going on and some people do not have a clue.
Hint - Rule # 3 learn the business! ( we are in the speculative metals market, not the banks or ..............)
Rule #1 "Never lose money"
Rule #2 " Never lose money"
Kate Haycck
Tuesday, 12 June 2007
MINERS and some analysts are tipping a continued bullish outlook for nickel despite its dramatic price fall on the London Metal Exchange last week.
Between Monday and Friday, the spot price of nickel tumbled from $US50,125 per tonne to $43,325/t on Friday, the metal's lowest price since February.
The price began sliding before the LME announced its new trading rules but it was the change in the way nickel longs can be traded on the exchange that prompted the dramatic sell-off in the metal and saw prices fall over 10% in two sessions.
The metal rebounded slightly in last night's trading on the LME and the spot price closed at $43,475/t, a gain of 0.35%.
Analysts said the trading session was quiet and cautious, with investors still watching the metal's price carefully.
One analyst from a major Australian bank said the market was still trying to find an appropriate level after the changes brought in by the LME, with current trading more associated with manoeuvring to reduce the impact of the new regulations, rather than any market fundamentals or massive changes to those fundamentals.
"This process will probably take a few trading sessions to work through," the bank added.
Nickel stockpiles are still at record lows on the LME at around 8880 tonnes, up from 8856t last week, a rise of 0.3%.
This level is still half that of the 52-week high of 16,980t, and many analysts are pointing out that this tightness as yet shows no sign of drastically easing.
"People are still talking in negative terms about the future, but in the near future there is still tightness," one trader told Dow Jones Newswires.
"There's been no panic in nickel. It had to move down, but I've not noticed a situation where everybody is selling."
Certainly, established and emerging nickel producers in Australia are keeping their eyes on the upside.
Mincor Resources director of exploration Jim Reeve told MiningNews.Net that the company saw the fundamentals for nickel as remaining very strong.
"We expect the demand for stainless steel to be quite strong. The demand for stainless steel, the demand for iron ore, is still going through the roof. That indicates [the current price falls] are probably only a temporary sort of lull," he said.
Reeve said the market's sell-off was due more to sentiment than any real technical impact.
"Stocks have risen a little bit, up to 8000-9000 tonnes, [but] that's a slight rise and it's still a very small total stock," he added.
"I think, realistically, not many people would expect the price of nickel to stay where it was two weeks ago, forever.
"The question is whether there's a soft landing to a new sustainable plateau at a higher price, which is what everyone is predicting, or worst case scenario, a huge collapse. And I don't think anyone is expecting a huge collapse while everything seems to still be booming in terms of the steel industry.
"The price is still very high, even at the current price, and we're looking at a break-even price way, way below the current price.
"I think nickel producers have never had it so good. I think the realistic longer term players don't expect it to stay where it is, but I think we might see it strengthen again," he said.
Reeve also added that from his perspective, predictions of the nickel price settling to around $30,000/t were realistic and "perfectly reasonable", with the caveat that predictions are inherently difficult to make.
"A lot depends on the buoyancy of global economies," he said.
"We're still positive about the price but maybe not at these absolutely stellar levels."
Julian Hanna, managing director of Western Areas, one of the newest nickel miners in Australia, was also keen to downplay the pessimism surrounding nickel this week.
"I think all the negative talk has been grossly overdone. There's certainly not enough nickel to keep the nickel smelters going and supply the stainless steel industry," he said.
Recent news of South Korean giant POSCO developing