[QUOTE=percy;622660]I take that as a positive.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.lol.QUOTE]
For whom ?? :-))
Ukraine.?? Da !!.. За 5 месяцев ..
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[QUOTE=percy;622660]I take that as a positive.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.lol.QUOTE]
For whom ?? :-))
Ukraine.?? Da !!.. За 5 месяцев ..
FWIW My broker has instigated a research note with a buy on Tegel ,tp $1.90.When i think of buying chicken i can't think of any other brand.....Ok, Ingham but Tegel is the brand that arguably most people would think of first; i put value in that.
Read now Recco also in the Bull
China is a huge market but Tegel is currently not in a position to supply that market with NZ's avian flu free and growth hormone free chickens and products.
Ssupect we will see some major announcements on that front after Tegel has been listed for at least a year.
I broke my own personal rule (not to touch anything private equity floats ) last week & purchased some.
Mainly as I realised that we don't have to worry about cheap imports flooding the market (thanks to bio security type rules ) Apparently there are some nasty chicken bugs in China.
While I don't expect any spectacular growth, I see it as a stable business (more of a hold & forget type share )
The Butch just advertising a 1 day special of $4.45 for a size 9 frozen chook.
That is pretty plucking cheap - can't be much chicken feed in that?
Tegel or Ingham or no brand?
Poultry farmers who are independent do get themselves into strife from time to time as the two poultry farmers will always take from their franchisee farmers first.
After 6-7 weeks, they have to process the chooks as there is little money in letting them eat the feed and maintain weight rather than grow further.
I have added to our TGH holdings this morning at $1.68.
Most FMCG companies have demand managers whose job is to predict the demand for products and prepare a sales and operating plan to ensure product is available in the right places and in the right quantities. If they end up with what looks to be too much product potentially on hand and a product is fairly price elastic, they will 'promo' the line to clear the product or turn it into something else that they store - in the form of frozen or 'value added' products.
On the other hand, if it looks like there are going to be shortages of fresh product, they will pull promo activity or adjust the product being assigned to frozen or value add processing and run those inventories down. It's a normal FMCG response to changes in consumer demand (much like the rag trade currently offloading all of their autumn ranges of clothing due to the late arrival of winter and being worried they will end up with stock they will have to fire sale to shift in a month or two).
Chicken is a natural product and there are some customers that will be very specific about the product they will take - with seasonal variations this may result in product out of the specific requirements having to be sold through the FMCG channel as well. It isn't necessarily easy to predict what consumers will do - even for the same month last year as for instance Easter fell in April during the school holidays last year but fell in March and outside of the school holidays this year - or if you are making ice cream with milk from the peak of the dairy season, what the demand will be like during the end of summer.
NBR article today - 'Tegel likely to replace STU in NZX 50'.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/proten-...nings-b-189985
...well they're certainly doing alright with earnings growth.
No Comment.
China will open its market to Russian supplies of meat and poultry within the nearest months, Russia’s Agriculture Minister Aleksandr Tkachyov said on Thursday. “China is making a concession, so I think we’ve come up trumps with the Chinese veterinarians,” TASS quoted him as saying on Rossiya 24 TV channel. “Almost all restrictions have been lifted,” Tkachyov said.
Tegel into NZX50 Coates out
We like or not chicken stocks are going to be part of different types of investors’ portfolio in the coming decade.
Poultry stocks are one of the stocks to watch in the coming decade. We may see some volatility in profit in some period due to volatility in commodity prices. Still best managed poultry companies should outperform others. Growing population in Asia and Africa will create more demand for protein products. Good profit can be maintained in many balance markets.
USA chicken has edge over others in some markets after faster than recovery in their poultry industry. Currently industry experts expect supply shortages in Asia and Mexico. Even Brazil is struggling to balance the market.
In balanced markets, companies are receiving good margins especially in Asian frontier and emerging markets.
In supply side, there are some supply threats in countries such as France, Mexico, India and Thailand to name few. Supply shortages in Asia are now starting to affect global markets. China is having a 20% supply reduction of white broilers due to breeding stock trade restrictions and has made positive margins. Other markets in Asia are expected to feel the impact in 2H 2016 due to bans on shipments of genetic stock from the U.S., UK and Canada in 2015/16. Later, many countries either banned or restricted French poultry imports as well.
We can reasonably expect more exports to China and South Korea, with more pressured supply from Thailand. In addition, prices of substitute products are increasing faster than chicken and egg in Asia and as a result consumers are creating more demand for poultry products.
In short, we can expect some poultry shortage and supply shortage in some countries in 2016/17. Following link which was published in 2015 gives us some idea about some poultry shortage and has become true in some extent.
http://www.wattagnet.com/articles/22...ultry-shortage
Interesting article - gel with what I have been told by one farmer who wanted to expand into poultry farming. Issue currently is sufficient production capacity to make exporting to countries like China worthwhile - something which will require a quantum leap in expanding facilities.
Looking forward to the results announcement on Monday!
The chicken profit out....
https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.c...spx?id=4173678
Good net profit increase and $0.1342 eps. What do you guys think?
Thanks. NPAT up 13%. Export growth look v positive. Cock-a-noodle-do:)
sound a bit scary though...revenue $582 plus with only NPAT$11.3.......risky business to be in?? just me...
Low margins keep competitors out and supermarkets happy.
No dividend announced? Am I right in assuming that they won't pay one until 2017?
Tegel is priced on around 50x earnings so is scary imho. Even if they paid out all earnings as a dividend (and didn't reinvest in any growth) you'd be looking at about a 3% gross yield in a business that is commodity like in many respects. Doesn't do it for me but I wish all holders well and hope Tegel's export growth plans come to fruition.
My mistake - forgot all the IPO costs. PE is more like 16x. Still think its fully priced for the industry it is in but GLTA.
"New Zealand's biggest chicken producer says it is "well positioned" to meet its 2017 targets, having forecast profit to more than triple to $44 million on a jump in sales to $637 million. This will allow the company to pay a dividend of between 7-11c per share." - NBR
They were never going to pay a dividend on this announcement - wasn't mentioned in IPO documents.
EPS of 13.42 cents (5.4 of https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/237879.pdf)
Hmmm.. interesting selloff today. Possible confusion around the PE ratio being 50 from non recurring expenses this year?
Not really a sell off mate - just the upsand downs of the market
often stocks go down post announcement when expectations
TGH will be close to 2 bucks by full year - they will see that it will be
so buy more
(PS - don't think many ever worried about reported high PE - its all about whats in pre IPO docs that count)
Harder times equals more of the cheapest protein on the dinner table I would have thought. Can't see many people buying fresh venison for dinner if you catch my drift.
What we need to do is push back against this Brexit B.S. and go and live it up a bit. You can buy some of the very best wild venison here. http://www.wildvenison.co.nz/where-t....php#resellers...hope my wife is reading this :) Agree that selling at IPO price was silly. Well done to those of you who had the gonads to buy on Friday...shame I wasn't one of them.
TGL is a consumer staple. The Brexit impact on TGH so far has been lower input costs. Wheat, Corn, and Soya are all off quite substantially. I hope that management are locking in lower prices for FY18. I
Tegel continues to under perform the market, almost the same closing price as what it was on 3 May, while the nzx 50 has risen 3.4%... in other news Influential media figure Peter Bush will chair the initial public offering for poultry producer Inghams while Mick McMahon is chief executive officer. The listing timetable has been pushed back to late October, subject to market conditions, because of the looming reporting season.
(not sure if it was known that Inghams will be doing an IPO in October, across the ditch, which should provide a good company to compare with I would have thought)
Yes, I had hoped for some more progress with the share price as well. Guess they need to get some more runs on the board. Brian Gaynor's piece in the Herald on Saturday was also food for thought. Haven't figured out yet if it really applies to Tegal or not.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11675313
Well I added to my IPO holding, and a trust I am involved with added six and a half times the amount it was allocated at the IPO.[Did not get many at the IPO.]
Rings all the bells for me.Well run consumer staple,growing markets for chicken,loooking to pay excellent dividends.
The brokers' research I have seen have target prices between $1.90 and $2.10.
ps.AWK,RYM,MEL,SCL and IFT were slow to get runs on the board,and they have all turned out to be big hitters.
I sold mine a few week back, I've talked to a few people re the listing who have worked at TGH - it made me a little weary. PE sounds like they really pushed things hard to cut costs and inc production before IPO. This resulted in quite a few experience people leaving and heading to competitors. I'm looking to reassess once results are released.
An observation after all those years of investing in sharemarkets - too many investors think that a share price must keep on tracking higher to indicate that a company is doing well. Whenever the sp stops going higher, doubts start setting in as traders take their cue and exit, and in the absence of positive affirmations (note - nothing negative has actually happened), panic actually sets in sometimes and they start bailing out.
Can see how stocks like SCL and TIL get sold off when their share prices were threading water even as their businesses were building up momentum.
Okay for traders to keep a close eye, hour by minutes and weeks to days, but certainly not for investors. Too hard.
Annual Report 2016
8:30am, 21 Jul 2016 | ANNREP
Tegel Group Holdings Limited has today released its Annual Report for the year ending 24 April 2016. The Annual Report is attached and can also be accessed at www.tegel.co.nz/investors
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/239814.pdf
I caught a snippet on CNBC today with respect to "Soft Commodities" and Corn prices which are very low. That has to be good for Tegal.
Talked about chicken being highly processed corn.
He was speculating that it may be worth having a bet on Corn Prices rising.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/corn_price
All the best,
RTM
And the NZD devaluating?
Yes that is the case with Inghams NZ operation which is based in the BoP near the Port of Tauranga so whilst they need to move finished product around the country, most of their growers are near to the production plant and the port where the feed arrives. Most of the Canterbury Wheat harvest ends up being used directly for human consumption.
Keep in mind also that feed grain is an international commodity and that China is one of the largest purchasers for their domestic poultry consumption which continues to grow as incomes rise and the middle class starts demanding more protein in their diet (case in point, the massive growth in the footprint of Yum Brands KFC operation in China) - which will place demand for wheat, barley, corn, sorghum and other feed stocks in the longer term.
Wheat, Corn, Soybeans all at 10 year lows (have been there for the last 12 months). Risk a rebalancing may affect the P&L? Think there is mention of a 10% NZD:USD currency swing shifting the equity ~$5m
Feed will need to be VERY cheap. My wife brought home a whole lot of fresh Tegal chicken thigh's yesterday she'd got at the Mad butcher on a one day special @ $3.99 kg, filled the freezer the canny Scottish blooded person she is.
I almost felt sorry for the Mad Butcher, Veritas and Tegal...they're sure not going to get rich selling those at $3.47 kg plus GST. She makes a mean chicken casserole with apricots, spices and all sorts...should be good for some very nice hot winter dinners over the next few weeks. Disc - Don't own Tegal, Veritas or any financial interest in any Mad Butcher stores either.
Keep that freezer full with the sensational special prices. These most likely the secondary cuts (in someones opinion) as the rest is exported. Even Prestons, a small local butcher chain are flogging them off $3.49 kg. The bone-in thighs are the best taste by far, any BBQ expert or slow cook aficionado will tell you that! Breasts suck :eek2: especially the skinned ones.
:) Yum.
Haha - those of us who are not into breasts (but prefer legs and thighs) are wonderfully served by the fact that there is huge demand for chicken breasts which sells for a premium price (typically over $10.00kg) and are used for added higher value products like nuggets, ham and sausages.
Chickens unfortunately have only one breast as far as the likes of Tegel and Ingham are concerned.
Hence the regular specials these days for legs and thighs - less so wings, as KFC loves those wings which make them super profits vs normal chicken pieces.
I agree. There's no flavour in breasts, and the skin is the best part. As with most animals, the further down the leg you go, the stronger the flavour. Weirdly, Pakn'Save in Dunedin routinely has chicken tenderloins at well below the price of any other cut, even though they are arguably the best part of the whole thing, especially for stir fries...
http://tegelcareers.co.nz/Vacancies/
Always good to see plenty of jobs advertised in any company - either means the company is a lousy employer (eg. NZX under that misfit Weldon) or expanding.
Chicken in a halt mode....good luck holders...not me..don't have any:sleep:
Profit warning, ahoy!, Private equity says, thanks for coming?
Just a guess...
I'm guessing new chicken contracts to all KFCs in South America.
Cannot see a profit warning myself as the company delivered its results and outlook less than 2 months ago and if it is, would be released by now with a trading halt.
Suspect it has more to do with a corporate deal - there was word of trade buyers interested when Tegel was put up for sale last year but they weren't convinced at that time of the export story.
Could be a health scare - needs the company to respond appropriately and not panic consumers.
Time will tell.
might be to do with lost chickens
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/austral...-film-by-vegan
Ive noticed they have been advertising for chicken catchers recently and suspect they have developed the three legged chicken and now just have to catch it, lol
Approval for raw poultry exports to Austrayya
Ah well, I got that wrong..... or I'm a few months early :)
Tegel get Raw Deal from Australia
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: Bored reading Full Year Announcements. :mellow:
Significant..
The word significant used in any announce is a give away buy signal.
Used once;buy
Used twice.Strong buy.
Used three times.Must buy.
What is interesting is today's Tegel announcement uses the word significant FIVE times.!!
You may laugh at the logic,but it really works.!
I think the announcement is great. Tegel already supply the fast growing Aldi andCostco supermarkets. Those relationships should help them grow fresh chicken sales. I do wonder about logistics however.
Additionally, RBD has just bought a heap of NSW KFC stores. Perhaps they can leverage their existing relationship there.
Oz opening up completely to Tegel (given that Ingham is already supplying in Oz and is a competitor) is the equivalent of the apple market opening up to NZ a number of years ago - very significant indeed!
We saw the benefits to the apple industry in NZ.
Heard through the grapevine that Tegel is putting in a 'significant' number of new farms in New Plymouth area - at least a dozen.
I guess the logistics are: grow grain in Australia; truck it to port; ship it to New Zealand; truck it to farms; turn it into chicken; truck chickens to factory; truck product to port; ship to Australia; truck to shop ... and still be competitive. The wonders of globalization and modern transport systems.
Price of wheat down 56%, barley down 36% and price of corn down 46% in the last 5 years. Huge reductions in input costs.
Also, NZ enjoys one of the highest FCR in the world - mainly die to the fact that NZ is the ONLY country free of the three major bird viruses in the world.
http://pianz.org.nz/industry-issues/...-and-fallacies
“Birds do grow faster in New Zealand, so all the world is looking and would like to match the industry here, but they can’t,” Prof. Ravindran says.
NZ has not had a major outbreak of those diseases but that doesn't mean they are not here. Avian influenza is in the wild bird population in NZ. Expand the poultry industry and it is just a matter of time... make hay while the sun shines.I did a small research project with Tegel many years ago and was very impressed with the farms I saw then.
discl: not holding
Nothing to do with Tegal but I find this horrifying -
Baker said it needed to be kept in perspective. There were an estimated 70,000 cases of campylobacter a year in New Zealand - one of the highest rates in the world.
"We have very high rates due to contaminated chicken," he said.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/heal...immune-disease
Have to be so careful about handling food, especially seafood and chickens and taking extra care to make sure they are not off.
I remember an ex-colleague of mine eating week old chicken pizza and ending up in hospital for 2 weeks from food poisoning.
Then there are those who ate contaminated oysters from Korea at Eden park function and ended up in hospitals.
Supermarket raw chicken is leakproof now; wrapping standards were upgraded and enforced a while back. To think it often used to drip onto ones other food items in the trolley; errrkk:scared:
Campylobacter spp. enumerated from drips trapped in leak-proof ...
Unlike hi tech industries, one assumes that things do not change too dramatically one year to the next.
http://www.takaninifeeds.co.nz/poultry/
Pretty much the same 5 years ago - what goes into chicken feed these days - wheat, maize, barley and soya meal without the anti-biotics and growth hormones so common overseas.
A snippet from John Ryders excellent Global newsletter. Bodes well for feed prices here.
"At the beginning of June, US stocks ofcorn were 4.72 billion bushels, the highestreading since 1988. Farmers also seededthe highest ever acreage of soybeans(83.7 million acres), as well as the fourthhighest acreage for corn (94.1 millionacres).
The outlook in other large producing nations and regions, like Russia, Ukraine and the EU, is alsopositive... and is expected to take total world grain production to 2.026 billion tonnes this year, withinventories reaching the highest level ever. "