Good run with ASX: AVZ today up 10% to 0.97 ahead of Mining Licence being granted
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Good run with ASX: AVZ today up 10% to 0.97 ahead of Mining Licence being granted
ESS Essential Metals well up from about 30 cents to 60 cents this month.
LRS catching a bid of late a break past 4.5c will be very Bullish T/A wise ... many updates to come ... Lithium projects could see LRS muti bag over 22
I'm not sure who the best candidates are. The biggest value gain is likely to come from a small gold miner that has an economic lithium find. These gains could be simply massive. Slightly down the risk profile is where I'm looking currently - a JORC compliant resource has been reported in a tier 1 mining country like Australia, Canada etc. The company is then looking to expand the size of this resource, get off-take's, regulatory approvals and arrange financing to enable production (or be bought out by someone with deeper pockets).
I've made investments into CXO (Core lithium), ESS (Essential metals) and GT1 (Green Technology). GL1 also fits this definition but I'm not sure of anyone else in Australia that does. If by "junior" you mean pre-production, LTR (Liontown) could also be included. CXO has the market cap to be included in the ASX300 in the next update. LTR is already in the ASX200. I'm not sure if a "junior" can be in a major index!!
Of the three I've invested into, Core has finance & approvals and is under construction in the Northern Territory with production expected in late 2022 and is my biggest investment.
Taking ESS as an example, a 10-bagger return is a distinct possibility. They have an 11.2mt resource @ 1.21%. They are looking at a 1.6Mt ore processing capacity. If you assumed a mid-range recovery rate of 70%, this would be 226kt/yr of spod [1600*(1.21/6.00)*70%]. Other operators are under US$500/t of spod in operating costs so I'd expect ESS to be around this area. This would mean with Spod prices of over US$2500/t there is a US$2000/t margin. So yes, if lithium prices remain where they are currently and ESS jump all the hurdles to get into production you are looking at US$500m/yr of EBITDA. Given a fairly short current mine life low EBITDA multiple would be conservative but 3x is still A$2b. Not a bad prize for a $120m market cap company.
This tends to indicate the market is pricing both a very strong pull-back in spod prices and a low probability of getting into production. Events like Rio's bust-up in Serbia indicate a stronger for longer Spod price. Ironically as ESS's share price goes up it becomes more real that the debt/equity raise needed to get into production will happen.
I've normally looked to keep good diverfication, but with the potential gains in the lithium space, I'm starting to question myself on that.
Hey thanks for your thoughts scrunch, I'll take a look at these ones! I think that the graphite space could heat up this year, I see RNU today has been given Aussie govt financing for $185m which is almost all their capex requirements.
But I do need some lithium exposure, too so again, thanks.
Yes RNU's share price has done very well. I had a cursory look a while ago and wasn't convinced it would get off the ground. The market price movement of RNU is saying it will. I'd gone with EGR for graphite exposure. There appears to be huge potential for EGR but to date, this potential hasn't been realised in share price movements.
The link below is a chart based analysis of six lithium stocks that have had really strong movements recently. Three of them were noted earlier ESS, GT1 & GL1. The other 3 covered are CHR, CRR & 1MC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlGsS9a3304
These other three are:
CHR - Three asset areas - An interesting interplay with Core. South of Core's development there is an area where Core the entire area around what CHR has, and also recently took up an option over a piece in the middle of what CHR owns. CHR also has two other southern WA exploration areas.
CRR - A bunch of different prospects, but it seems to be Mavis Lake that is driving the value. They bought ESS's interest in this Canadian lithium play and ESS is now a shareholder
1MC - I've noted a bunch of different exploration projects but I'm not sure what bit is driving the value estimates.
So these stocks are not in the bargin basement undiscovered space. The issue is how do you value a tenement where there is a lot of hurdles to get into production, but if it was in production is probably worth >$1b. Its not easy and even small changes in the likely probability of getting into production create large value swings. Then there is the issue of not knowing how long lithium prices will stay as strong as they are and if the contract - where will they settle?
JRL on the march upwards on the back of their recent announcement @ McDermitt USA
Could be a possible Sky Rocket on the low issued share number & large USA Deposit held by
small Aussie Miner .. A lot to like about the Board, their Experience & looking after holders
The Giga Factory just down the road from the deposit & US Listed Lithium Co LAC close by
Disc: Holder
AVZ - will push close to $1.00 before ML announcement soon? open .83c today.
Looking at smaller juniors that have at least done some drilling, JBmurc have any views on Metals Australia (MLS)?
From HC comments they have jumped around on what mineral they are targeting and some are certainly viewing it as a management lifestyle company. They are now focusing on Lithium (WA) plus Graphite (Canada) with smaller intercepts at Mulgara (8m @ 1.0%, 7m @ 1.29%). They are planning 3500m RC drilling at their foundation prospect. There's a 20:1 consolidation in a few days that move the price back up to the 4-6c range (based on current 0.02/0.03 quotes). The description of the foundation target is a bit odd in that the maps show a typical skinny long Pegmatite. The text quoted is "Additional, systematic, rockchip sampling programme now planned to test the entire 500m x 200m extent of the foundation pegmatite cluster..." Is it narrow (say 10-20m wide) or does it have a massive width (200m) which if combined with depth would put it into the multi million ton's (if assay results are also good - a big if).
Being new to this space, two bits I'm not sure about are whether holding a mining licence already (from Zinc?) would make it quicker or easier to start mining Lithium from an approvals perspective (or mean a takeover from someone with capital could be a possibility). Also is it a huge red flag or just a normal progression that floatation testing is only concentrating to a grade of 3.05% which is fractionally under half the sort of Spod grade I'd have expected.
Disc Not held.
This thread which started mid-Jan 2022 is also worth a read as the poster is tracking a good range of lithium stocks from the major's down to some smaller one's. With so many players entering the lithium exploration space its hard keeping track of every new company that potentially has lithium. I'm not sure how long it will continue for.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ess...eport.6532611/
Every man & his dog seems to be unearthing Lithium 'potentials' these days:
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/e...mount-everest/
How's our global Lithium shortage going ? ;)
It's getting difficult picking which of these hopefuls will start the race or how far
down they track they'll go..
Spot lithium prices in China have exploded over the past 6 months. The problem is there's a disconnect between current market price vs long term 'contract' pricing. I hold a significant holding in ALB (NYSE) which had surprised earnings yesterday and it's share price has lost 20% today. The problem with lithium mining is it's all easy to say that 1 area has lots of lithium, but it's another story trying to extract this metal. Just look at RioTino lithium venture in Europe which failed. The largest lithium reserve in the EU and RioTino can not get their shovels in the ground. The same applies to almost all these jr. lithium miner stocks around the world. Most of them will go bankrupt through regulations and political issues.
Many unforeseen events at stake - possible war between Russia and Ukraine. High inflation that will trigger fast increase in central bank interest rates. Another Covid variant? Bottom line, if you have cash, buying lithium is a smart long term bet.
[QUOTE=SBQ;942597]Spot lithium prices in China have exploded over the past 6 months. The problem is there's a disconnect between current market price vs long term 'contract' pricing. I hold a significant holding in ALB (NYSE) which had surprised earnings yesterday and it's share price has lost 20% today. The problem with lithium mining is it's all easy to say that 1 area has lots of lithium, but it's another story trying to extract this metal. Just look at RioTino lithium venture in Europe which failed. The largest lithium reserve in the EU and RioTino can not get their shovels in the ground. The same applies to almost all these jr. lithium miner stocks around the world. Most of them will go bankrupt through regulations and political issues.
Many unforeseen events at stake - possible war between Russia and Ukraine. High inflation that will trigger fast increase in central bank interest rates. Another Covid variant? Bottom line, if you have cash, buying lithium is a smart long term bet.[/QUOTE
If it’s any help I bought into orocobre (now merged into AKE) a few years ago after Toyota bought in)
They are producing large amounts and look secure .
Update - this concentration grade is increasingly looking like a huge red flag. Unless there is strong information to the contrary, it appears MLS's existing lithium grades are within Lepidolite rather than Spodumeme. From a quick google processing of Lepidolite to Hydroxide (or Carbonate) is more difficult. Its unclear at what price point it becomes commercially unviable or whether there are even commercial operators doing this concentration pathway (The US's evaluation of souces of lithium only named a small number of countries, all consistent with Hard-rock Spod or Brine as the source material). Obviously DYOR but unless unambiguous Spod references exist, I'd avoid.
Plenty of new players in the lithium space, with good profits to be made.
Held Galaxy (average price 21.2c) into the merger to Alkem. They climbed to $12 and pulled back to mid 9's. They have a hydroxide plant, several profitable mines operating now and a growth path for Sal de Vita (brine) and James Bay (spod). Alkem will continue to grow. I would pick a lithium stock to invest in with some caution as many of the junior explorers with lithium tenements will get eaten up. Pick the right company and they will do well for sure.
Nomis, sovereign risk is merely one of many assessment matters in buying into a company. As I said I rate Alkem which has a large project in the South Americas coming on, so that presents a geopolitical risk too.
I did hold Peak (PEK) and sold out simply because they were in Africa and a little uncertain in terms of the political space. That may have been a mistake but my equity is somewhere else I am comfortable with.
For most investors, they buy into a company with no knowledge of the management or their history, and that is just as high as a risk consideration.
So, no AVZ wouldnt pass the sovereign risk test, but that does not mean it shouldnt be a profitable or good company to invest in.
While GT1 (Canada) is yet to announce a JORC upgrade this is scheduled for Q2 2022. The Seymour lithium project is located in NW Ontario Canada, about 60km from the settlement of Armstrong and geographically slightly north of Lake Nipigon.
IMO they are a strong Junior Lithium miner. 20 reasons to consider GT1 are:
#1 Seymour ore has been successfully lab upgraded to battery grade of 99.52% (Its to Carbonate, rather than the Hydroxide occuring in Australia)
#2 Lab bulk test concentrate recovery rates are world-class. Using DMS 86.5% to 6.05% Spod, 81.7% to 6.92% Spod and Floatation 91.6% to 7.04% Spod (FFX has some report slides showing how strong this is relative to other miners) [Edit 19 Aug 2022 I now think these these are the recovery rates from the crushed and screened product. This makes them strong as they would be in the mid 70's when losses through fines are factored in. High enough to be commercial].
#3 The ore grade appears stronger than the 4.83Mt @ 1.25% JORC. The blended North Aubry rate within this is 1.38% and the weighted average of 3 recent drill holes is 1.51%
#4 Close to hydropower creating potential for "green lithium"
#5 Close to the major American market meaning Mine to Battery production could be measured in hundred's of KM's (for many others Spod miners its 10-20x that)
#6 GT1 have shown agility in their drilling execution and rapidly rolling out drilling (5,895m of DD completed since Dec21, another 7,100m commenced. Two rig's on-site)
#7 GT1 is one of a small set of lithium explorers with a hard-rock JORC resource that are not in advanced development plans
#8 A lot of untested pegmatites around Seymour
#9 Other strong sites to explore including McCrombe Prospect that has been drilled to an estimate of 2.297mt @ 1.3% but its not a JORC compliant estimate so isn't a JORC resource
#10 Directors include John Young (founding director at PLS) and Cameron Henry (Founding MD of Primero)
#11 Still early-stage in terms of market cap appreciation - Market cap is still only $152m (There are some restricted shares on issue so Direct broking $81.6m is incorrect)
#12 There is a tight share register. The top 20 make up 70% of shareholders. Due to repeated volumes like multiple @ 1.0m, the "top 20" from Nov21 was 43 shareholdings and 84.36% of shares on issue.
#13 Because DMS is a viable concentration method, startup capex is likely to be lower (less dilution). Core's 1.1Mt capacity plant from Primero was A$40m.
#14 Spod bearing Ore commences at or near the surface so start-up capital over-burden removal costs should be low and subsequent sustaining capex funded by operations
#15 Appears to have support of first nations peoples (Exploration approvals extended for 3 years)
#16 Recent references to North Aubry upper pegmatite imply a lower pegmatite has also been hit (size and grade are yet to be reported).
#17 The Ferland rail siding on the Canadian transcontential railway is only about 10km to the south
#18 The North Wisa prospect includes a 1.5km long stike with 0.4km for South Wisa. South Wisa has rockchips including 2.98%, 3.12% and 6.38%
#19 The strategic lithium footprint was expanded from 9,467ha to 35,576ha including new and adjacent zones
#20 As at 31 Dec 2021, GT1 had A$19.3m so substantial exploration can occur before any further Capital Raising is necessary
The main risks I'm aware of are:
#1 No certainty on how much larger the resource is
#2 GT1 are yet to get approval to mine (although the Ontario government recently put out a statement saying they were encouraging mining)
#3 GT1 are yet to get an off-take partner
#4 GT1 are yet to get finance for a mine
#5 GT1 are yet to release a DFS to improve clarity around potential returns
#6 GT1 are yet to release a FID confirming mining will actually happen and revenue generated
This is not investment advice an DYOR. Disc shareholder in GT1.
@Scrunch:
As a Canadian that has lived through the decades of various 'mining fiascos' in Canada, I would not touch ANY junior / OTC:BB mining stocks in Canada for the simple reason, most of them fail. I recall the days when the Vancouver Stock Exchange (once touted as the scam capital of the world), full of mining companies issue nothing but bogus stations of their reserves, addresses on their filing forms of offices that do not exist.
Like in recent news in Serbia, again touted the largest lithium reserve in all of Europe, Rio Tino had lost out as the environmental impact was too severe. This will be no different in Canada as any mining development comes with strong headwind against environmentalists. China will not sit back, nearly all the global lithium conversion is done in China. Just because you can dig up a bunch of lithium compound out of the ground does not mean it's valuable. The tonnage has to be processed. You end up shipping it across the world to extract the lithium into battery grade standard in China because they have the slack environmental standards and can get the product to market at the lowest cost way.
Lithium stocks at an OTC level is VERY VERY speculative. Just my 2 cents.
Thank you for the insight its useful to know these other bits of background context. While operating in Canada, GT1 is an Australian company listed on the ASX and needing to comply with ASX listing rules. They are not an over the counter (OTC) listed stock subject to few if any listing rules. Yes OTC stocks are very risky and I have not invested in them. Typically I don't look to make new invests in OTC companies or companies below $50m market cap for that very small company reason.
The issue of environmentalists not wanting mining but wanting less ICE's is going to be an ongoing tension. I don't know how that is going to be resolved but one possibility is that mining plans involving toxic chemicals or have other undesirable characteristics become the target. A DMS concentration plant is at the less environmental impact end of the spectrum because it doesn't involve leaching with toxic chemicals.
The other interesting element that differs from many past mining boom-bust cycles is the sheer increase in volume lithium required if the world is to transition away from ICE's. My understanding is that by the late 2020's, projected world demand exceeds the total of both all in-production projects and all major proposed projects. This is likely to create an environment when an unusually large percentage of start-up projects are successful and also decreases the risks around a boom-bust environment (at least until the point in time supply does catch up with demand). The bust element typically occurring as high prices drive a lot of new production and this increase in production causes prices to tank with high cost and potentially mid-cost producers to have a problematic cost structure. Most of the time a 50% or 100% increase would create over-supply.
Also, while it hasn't been confirmed, the high recovery rates achievable from GT1 ore should mean they would be a low cost producer. Somewhere like Wodgina mining 1.2% ore with a 65% recovery is going to need to concentrate 7.7t of ore for 1t of 6% Spod [7.7*(1.2/6)*65% = 1]. If GT1 is processing 1.5% ore, it would need to process 4.7t of ore for 1t of 6% Spod [4.7*(1.5/6.0)*85%]. That's got to help the cost structure.
There is already discussion around Spod to battery grade lithium conversion facilities at Thunder Bay. This would mean China would not be part of the conversion pathway. Canadian Ore, Canadian (or American) conversion. American battery production and car production, hence earlier comments about a short distanced travelled from mine to battery.
And here we are booming to the next planet. Should shift the stock picks around a little in the comp. Go AVZ!
lithium-pegmatites-galore LRS!!!
https://www.3aw.com.au/latin-resourc...he-assays-say/
The problem is where exactly will the battery production be located? No point building lithium conversion plants like in Australia or N. America when over 90% of the battery production is done in China. Shipping the tonnage of lithium from one continent to another is wasteful. I do not believe there will instantly be enough EVs to displace ICE vehicles. To do this is like a 50 year plan. Maybe it is viable to invest in lithium ventures like in Canada or in the US, but not without HUGE short term risk. I'm heavily invested in lithium stock but only with ALB because I firmly believe it's only the companies that have 'shovels in the ground' will benefit from the lithium boom over the next few years.
I'm sure ALB will do well, particularly when its longer-term contracts roll over and something nearer current spot prices starts to come through as revenue. The FIF threshold is low at $50k and I don't want to be caught up in all the extra tax work that involves so I want to keep US listings to a low level. Ticking the boxes in the updated IRD website tool, Australian based companies listed on the ASX that have offshore operations appear to be ok (but this isn't tax advice).
Everyone says this boom is different, however it may be different this time. The increase in demand that a modest to high conversion rate of ICE's to EV's will require is measured in the high hundred's of percent. Current world production needs to increase but its not a 10 or 20% total increase, but that sort of increase every year for the next 10-15 years. This ongoing expected shortage is going to prevent prices falling back down to cost plus margins for a long time.
Re Australia - Yes there is a lot of point in building a lithium conversion plant in Australia. The process of convering Spod to Hydroxide substantially reduces the weight of the material that contains the lithium. This means a substantially reduced volume of material will need to be shipped from Australia to where-ever the production occurs. I suspect Hydroxide would be also suitable for containerised shipping rather than just bulk shipping. Shipping costs are a big issue when products are measured in cents/kg or only a few dollars per kg. Even if Hydroxide was only packed at one ton per square metre, a 40 foot container could hold 76.3 cubic metres (US$3.8m of product at US$50k/t). Shipping costs for hydroxide are not a big issue. There are also concept plans for a battery facility at Kwinana.
It will take time to build the production volume for ICE's but a heap of major auto makers have signalled partial or complete transition by dates from 2025 to 2035. This is no longer a 50 year transition plan.
The "huge short term risk" is mitigated by the current risk-reward balance. Also from what I've read, even if all the big planned projects (FFX, AVZ, LTR etc) go ahead, there is still a supply shortfall later this decade. That is going to create the environment where battery and auto makers look to secure supply by assisting promising start-up's much more than has ever occurred before in mining. IMO this will mean the normal situation of start-up's rarely getting into production will not be the case for those that successfully define an economic JORC sized resource. Economic sized JORC resources will typically either be taken over or assisted into production both create big gains for shareholders.
The battery production country mix is also on the way towards changing. A massive number of gigafactories are both planned and under development in Europe and America. A couple of days ago Stellantis and LG Energy announced plans for a $4.1b facility in Ontario, Canada. Stellantis is the combination of Fiat Crysler and PSA Group (Peugeot, Crysler, Opel, Citroen, Dodge, Maserati). That would put battery production a few hundred kilometers from the GT1 mine site. Plans also exist for Spod conversion facilities in Ontario.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/202203...1xphcwhwnk.pdf
LRS looks to have discovered something very special >> upto 3.22% Li
@JBmurc: without a doubt, lithium investments will have a bright future. Coming from a background in mining in my younger years, i've come to know so many 'fly by nighters' of mining companies that come and go. Anything in the sub $5 or $10 share price range scares me.
They say for the next many years, the market index returns are going to be flat. But I doubt this will be the case for lithium. The demand is so high and will continue so for several years until the auto makers start finding a way to really produce EVs in a large enough level.
I think i've mentioned this before. The process of getting shovels in the ground is like 90% of the work. This is where I see most of these Jr mining stocks - lots of reports, more reports on environmental impacts, 1 assessment after another, then 1 year or 3 years later the mining company runs out of money. This is a game I want to steer clear away from and ALB fits that bill. Likewise with others like SQM and FMC.
You wouldn’t like my areas of investment then my highest priced stock is CNB $1.25 .. but that’s not the most important value.. as we know marketcap gives a much better idea on value .. most of my investment start in the sub 100mill AUD range and exits 500mill to Billion .. not that the blue chips aren’t worth a trade RIO BHP WPL all screaming BUYs earlier in the year and all pay great dividends..
I do agree many micro caps exploration plays and jnr miners will never grow or survive.. it’s a tough sector ...one must alway be really to exit if results operations aren’t meeting your high expectations .. doesn’t matter what value they use to trade at ... or mgmt hopes
As you can see from my signature.. I hunt for the next growth stock from the micro-cap sector ... higher risk but high returns if you can control your trading emotions
Would be curious about your take on MQR Jb. Quite a variety of prospects for ~$20m, if either of their US lithium plays show anything, it could move quickly. Their lonestar gold/copper acquisition looks appetising, too, although a few questions about them maybe redrilling historic holes for a bit of news flow. Pulling up some nice grades though..
Yes MQR a company I briefly looked into and liked what i seen .. but just never followed it up .. I try to keep my portfolio to 10 or less holding purely as the time I like to keep up to date on each at times daily soaks up so much time..... I always seem to have 2-3 companies I really like the look of but think I could enter cheaper etc... then forget about them and add another etc
See what WCN comes up with in the near term could be about to be kicked to the kerb ... MQR might fit the bill ..
Some good info here, lots of companies to research in the hunt for multi-baggers!
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/e...ithium-miners/
Quite frankly, almost every one of those junior lithium mining stocks will go bust over the next 10 years. The large established mining stocks like Rio Tino, don't even have a major presence in lithium production at the current levels. It takes several years to get lithium mining sites online... costing BILLIONS. The likely outcomes or best case scenario is by joint venture with the larger lithium companies. If the concentrates in the ground aren't high enough, and the negotiation around the contracts are not clear, then nothing will happen.
Meanwhile, punters can make a killing .....
Yes it does pay to be selective, and a lot will depend on someone's risk appetite. At the moment all the in-production lithium miners have market cap's well into the billions as do some of the under construction mine's. If you were to successfully identify a small junior (sub $50k market cap), 1000% and higher returns are possible. If you have a portfolio of 5 and for go bust and one does 10x you will come out ahead. As is usual, a lot of the new entrants that are yet to even get a drill bit into the ground are high risk. No doubt about it, but that's always been the case with pre-drilling juniors.
IMO an area that has potential for extremely strong gains while minimising some of the risk is Juniors that have the following:
>A JORC resource that is in the multi-million ton's and at a grade comfortably above 1%
>Have cash balances well into the millions, ideally around or over $10m
>Have a Spod not Lepidolite (purple) lithium resource
>Have done the test work to confirm the ore can be concentrated to around 6% with a recovery rate above 60%, ideally 70-80%+
>Are no more than a few hundred kilometers from ports and have major roads for most of this distance
>Have active drilling programme to expand this resource
Having all of these factors increases the companies market cap, typically into the hundred's of millions but should also decrease the failure rate of the companies that are invested in. Quite a few will no longer be listed in five years, but that's because there is likely to be a wave of M&A activity.
10yrs is a long time trading in Resources market or really all speccy not making money from operations ... but your'd be surprised how many continue to survive as explorers ... IRC is been trading for 24yrs before they changed ticker to HRZ last few years .. only minor toll treatment ... still talking up future Production plans >>> I've been smart enough to hunt out explorers that turn into successive producers(But not smart enough to continue to HOLD most of the time>> ....BPT , SBM , RMS , STX , etc
Jinderlee (JRL) adding momentum today on McDermott Li deposit in the USA
and having sold down part of their EME holding recently
a small company small issued Cap with a big resource that escapes the radar of many :)
Ok, so we sold a rental and have change left over...
what lithium stocks should I buy?
thinking of $10k x 10 in big cap producers and $10k in x5 mid cap.
i have read back quit a bit of the thread, but i am not a miner :).
just interested in your views as experienced people, such great knowledge and any advice welcome .
so far have Black rock and Syrah, but only recently, so small profits so far.
also EQE but they are not lithium / nickel.
Well BKT is a graphite miner in Tanzania while Syrah has a huge graphite resource but is struggling to mine it profitably. Neither are lithium stocks.
Big producers lithium:
You can't get to 10 hard-rock Spod miners listed on the ASX because there aren't enough different companies. There's PLS, AKE & IGO that are in production. MIN is in production but you also get a lot of Iron ore exposure. WES is in production but with a heap of other exposures including retail (Bunnings).
Advanced development:
This set includes CXO (Oz), LTR (Oz), AVZ (Africa), FFX (Mali), LKE (South America - Brine), PLL (USA, Canada, Africa) and SYA (Canada). Within this set some are under construction, while others are still looking to finalise something before construction starts. Having invested in BKT/SYR you would appear to be comfortable with mining outside tier 1 locations.
Progressed to JORC compliant resource:
ESS put out an investor update that listed the 12 JORC compliant resources in Australia. This includes those listed above, Bald Hill (still in the hands of liquidators), ESS and GL1. GT1 has a small JORC resource that will be upgraded this quarter. RDT has noted an intention to announce a JORC resource later this year.
Then there's dozen's and dozens of mid-size and smaller explorers at various stages, and the Brine operators. One of JBmurc's smaller pick's is LRS (Brazil pre JORC with some good drill results).
Yes LRS very early stages with its Brazilian Lithium Discovery ... just how big is it ? will trade again today after a HUGE capital raise of some $30mill .....Canadian fund manager Waratah Capital Advisors would take up $15 million of the placement..
Thats some serious investment one would only come about if LRS mgmt. have proved to Waratah its going be a large Lithium Project... they are in @ 16c ... end of last month LRS was sub 10c !! start of March 4c !!
An interesting development with ASX: JRL during the week moving to become solely Lithium focused
with it's huge US McDermitt Lithium deposit - with Jinderlee's other Aussie interests being floated into
a NewCo.
(LAC's Thacker Pass deposit is on the other end of the same Caldera from McDermitt)
Both are just down the round from TSLA's Gigafactory
With a small issued Capital (roughly 60m shares) and such a large potential
deposit, it may be that the SP could rocket like the lid coming off a pressure
cooker, as McDermitt really gets cracking :)
JRL has risen from low $2's up to high $4's in recent months
LAC & other Listed US Lithium players are mostly circa US $30+ a shot :)
US lithium production is pretty much non-existent and despite Joe Biden's "Defence Production Act" to put America back on producing lithium, such projects would take several years to develop.
https://mining.com/wp-content/upload...volkswagen.jpg
However if you're really talking large caps stock, look none other than in the US equity listings. Price per share, ALB is around $210, SQM $82, & FMC $136, having market caps of $25B, $23B, $17B, respectively. There are other smaller players in the US lithium like PLL, LAC, & LTHM but they're under $5B. The problem with these smaller players is they talk big, but are nothing but a money pit for soaking money in development stage. Investors need to understand that to get lithium, mining operations normally take 4 - 7 years before any lithium is delivered to market. So why are so many of these big lithium players list on the US NYSE/Nasdaq but have very little operations in the US? Well for the well established ones like ALB, they prefer to extract lithium abroad (Chile, Australia, with conversion plants in China). Environmental issues are too much of an issue in western nations like the US (with NIMBY) that nothing gets done.
As for the junior lithium stocks - I would RUN!!! because when you have a market that demands lithium (or any other rare mineral) in such high need, the winners will be those that "already have shovels in the ground". Take the lithium in Argentina's Triangle flats, the evaporation of brine takes over a year before lithium is harvested. Take the mining operations in Australia from spodumene hard rock - from planning to passing environmental, to digging deep enough to get the hard rock can take 4 years to reach viable lithium concentrates.
There's been talk of extracting lithium from brine that is pumped out of the ground in geo-thermal operations. To my mind the Salton Sea in California which is touted to being able to meet 40% of the world supply of lithium (again, silly scientists making bold claims). Tesla back in 2015 made a bold offer to buy out Simbol Materials for lithium extraction via geo-thermal... only to go bankrupt in the following year. In fact, this method of lithium extraction is unproven in a large commercial scale - despite what the scientists say.
Thanks for your great posts.
great insights and I hope you all do well.
you stand a much better chance than me ;-)
I will study up before investing . There seems to be some gains to be made in the right ones , and will need to understand the market a bit more.
Have a great Easter W/E
An interesting update today for ESS. They are in a trading halt following the "receipt of a non-binding indicative offer in relation to a potential control transaction."
No further details yet. This could be the start of takeover games.
Alchemy Resources (ALY) is the latest lithium hopeful, up 46% today to $25mln market cap.
Interesting.
Proactive interview on YouTube today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BDwc9pQY-0
Announcement:
https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=6002977
ALY is now in a trading pause .. something coming up by looks .. maybe another upgrade on the back
of the recent on the Koronie Lithium anomalies ? :)
Thought ASX had paused trading given todays activity. Been a fun day. Wonder why.
Strangely enough not an ASX/ASIC eyelid blinked on MAY being down the same % & some more either ;)
Lots more fun days coming up for ALY if what they appear to have found becomes better and better :)
Lindsay & the team are pretty astute on their mining tenements & what to look for and I don't think I'm wrong :)
Speeding ticket.
Hope management don't deflate this balloon.
Am starting to believe this could double from here,just don't know when.
They have some terrific gold tenements, near term cash flow and other critical minerals.
Shouldn't save sold some at 1.2 but I'm still in the top 20.
Yes was a bit precious on ASX/ASICs part.
Having said that it doesn't take 2 days to respond to a speeding ticket.
Were it a CR Ann coming given then I would have thought the SP would have been going in the other direction today. Could be wrong.
8 April Ann said 2 -3 weeks drilling and assays in May ... 3 weeks since 8 April and Monday is 2 May.
I don't think you're wrong either :)
What is interesting is the other miner that Lindsay Dudfield is a director & shareholder in has quite a history
of looking after shareholders - Jinderlee (JRL) is onto the McDermitt USA Large lithium deposit
becoming solely focussed on that - and Aussie tenements being spun into a separate Aussie listed Co.
My impression is that JRL with relatively low issued ShareCapital operates quite happily on the smell
of an oily rag to uncover some very impressive mineral finds. (JRL share price has galloped
away in the past six months into the $4.00's - from low $2's)
JRL have quite a holding in ALY as well I see looking at the last ALY FY Annual Report
ASX: AVZ - Ministerial Decree to Award Mining Licence - Manono Lithium & Tin
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap...df02a206a39ff4
This is a huge project
I would be interested to know who the AVZ holders here are.
I've been holding it since 2017 myself—lots of ups and downs. Today the ML announcement is an essential de-risk event for more fund money. But it will be interesting to see how much of the ML was factored in and how much fund $ is ready and available.
I hold a small amount, bought in @ $0.17 so doing ok. Wasn’t expecting it to go down today :confused: oh well took it as a wee top up opportunity, probably keep going down now that I did! :rolleyes:
ASX: ALY: tickle tickle .. smoke rising .. is it from over the Karonie ? what's a cooking ? :)
I doubt Karonie.
Stoked with todays Li plays rebounding strongly like I thought they would ... Picked up couple more Li micro caps yesterday ..ELE 3.6c MLS 9.2c (tried to BUY more MLS 9.2 but order didn't get filled)...and of Course after selling down LRS I decided to buy more 11c ... Glad I did as today we had some great SP rises
Well done again!
Bought some more OXX at 1.9c.
If you don't mind no cash but prospective tenements, market cap $5m, go for it.
Possible lithium, rare earth's and gold.
ASX: ALY: more smoke rising
I notice they have a lot of lithium targets near GL1's Manna lithium deposit.
GL1 has Manna plus another lithium project further north.
Note GL1 has a current market cap of $268 million with cash of $37m.
Then it dawned on me ALY could hit 10c within 2 years.
ALY has a lot else going on, eg gold and base metal exploration, critical mineral project divestment, gold production, other jvs.
Cash about $3m
Sold ELE ...for no other reason as it was easy trade @ 3.9c ....$2500 profit for 24hr hold...
tempted to take some profits in MLS and LRS both up and easy trade out today ..but held think Li stocks have fuel to run just need these overseas markets to settle ..
Well done JB - I may be wrong but a bit better feel coming back - particularly in the mining / resources potentials :)
Yes the selling seems more so Retail and tech getting the worse of the sell-off in overseas markets ... I see LIT -Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF up 3% so should be another great day ... Forward EV Demand is just insane esp now with record high Gas prices ... I feel another major FOMO surge coming to the sector soon enough and will likely add to my Li Holdings
Nztx, ALY was a spinout of JRL in 2009.
Yes Lindsay Dudfield is a great guy.
ASX:ALY:
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap...df02a206a39ff4
Looks like the cat's about to fly out of the bag at Karonie
surprising that it's still 'parked up' @ 2.7c
EFE a micro cap I've been buying over the last few months of selldown >>just dropped some nice results
OUTSTANDING LITHIUM ASSAYS AT TRIGG HILL PROJECT
Highlights
• Rock-chip assays confirm extensive lithium-caesium-tantalum (LCT) pegmatites.
• Results up to 2.28% Li2O, 1.23% Rb2O, 1,552ppm Cs2O, 514ppm Ta2O5 and
2,921ppm SnO2 from the Curlew East pegmatite swarm.
• One pegmatite chip rock sample returned 10.3% copper.
I invested in PLS lithium 2 years ago when it was about 50c now is $5 as it is virtually printing money check it out on Hot Copper
Relative Newbie here. Would any of the regular contributors here care to suggest one lithium stock to hold for the long term? Would be much appreciated!
Thanks JB and Clearasmud for your suggestions. I will look into all the companies mentioned. I assume that you both feel lithium has a long and growing runway?
WIN (Widgie Nickel) has commenced Lithium drilling at their Mt Edwards project at their new Faraday Prospect, as below:
- Post September Quarter, on 3 October 2022, Widgie announced rock chip sampling at the newly named “Faraday prospect” had identified high-grade lithium bearing pegmatites outcropping over a 600m strike with surface expressions up to 25 metres wide. Multiple pegmatite occurrences are observed across broader Widgie tenure.
Visible spodumene identified at several locations with multiple high-grade Li2O values returned from 14 rock chip samples at the Faraday prospect. Higher values of note include;
- S10013 : 2.61%Li2O
- S10014 : 3.70%Li2O
- S10015 : 2.86%Li2O
- S10017 : 3.60%Li2O
- S10019 : 2.91%Li2O
- S10021 : 3.04%Li2O
- S10025 : 2.73%Li2O
- Field work has commenced immediately to drill test high-priority targets at the Faraday prospect, as well as detailed mapping, soil and rock chip sampling across the Widgie tenure. This has the major potential to extend the footprint of the pegmatite to the north under transported cover.
The Mt Edwards Project has a significant Nickel endowment, and is close to Bald Hill lithium project and both of the ESS lithium project areas.
WIN has approx 250 million SOI and approx 12.5 million in cash (as at the end of September).
Thanks again to you both!
At current mining production, it will take ~9,920 YEARS to mine enough lithium to transition to net zero.
Either the population needs to massively shrink or we’re heading back to the Stone Age to achieve net zero by 2050
There's a bunch of lithium companies that have a JORC resource of circa 10Mt+ but are still working through some combination scoping, pfs, dfs, permitting, off-takes and finance. Its then DYOR into the set below if you want invest in one of these mid-process stage companies. There's dozens of companies that are at the pre-drill stage but unless you know what you are looking for that end of town is easy to get easily get you burned on or make huge gains. Its probably wise for those smaller plays to spread your risk - I believe JBmurc has had quite a bit of success in this early stage area. BTW, only ASX listed companies are noted and all are hard rock.
If looking for bigger projects that are post FID and either in production or under development then its a fairly short list PLS, AKE, IGO, MIN, CXO, LTR, SYA (Canada) and I think LLL (Africa). There's also a bunch of Brine options but I'm less familiar with those. Of the tickers listed in this post I've got holdings in 6.
Australian soil:
ESS - Essential Metals
GL1 - Global Lithium
RDT - Red Dirt
America's:
PLL - Piedmont
GT1 - Green Technology Metals
LRS - Latin Resources (pre-JORC but Maiden JORC targeted for end of 2022)
Africa:
A11 - Atlantic Lithium (Also listed on the LSE under ticker ALL)
AVZ - AVZ (although its currently in an extended suspension of trading)
Excellent advice Scrunch. A sheetload of punters will get burnt by the rush to lithium given every second explorer is diversifying into it. Most will fail in my view.
I hold AKE and have done so since early GXY days as my solid producer, and LRS as my punt.
Yes trading halt is factual due to ML not being issued for all tenements , but in reply: Government shift, corruption in mining sector is being dealt with quickly and with western support. X2 visits from heads of US state department, Special economic zone set up for Manono, there is positives on there which make the potential huge upside hard to ignore. I long term hold PLS (2019) and AVZ (2017) it’s the sector that is of interest.
Is anyone going to the AVZ roadshow this evening?
WIN up 16.4% today.
Got some punting money....GMN could be worth a ride.
Disc. hold
LRS finally getting some more attention ...not long now till maiden Brazilian Lithium JORC .. could well tick back to the mid teens prior to results ..upside 15Mt JORC resource
WIN continues to grind higher. Lithium project adjoins a Mincor tenement. Possibility for JV or M&A activity further down the track. Lithium assays expected prior to Xmas.