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This a breakout?
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This a breakout?
depends whether you believe in: flags, pennants, banners, symmetric triangles, assymmetric triangles, wedges, wedgies, resistance levels, support levels, arbitrary levels, making the data fit the facts, making the facts fit the data, one size fits all, no size fits anyone, uptrends, downtrends, no trends, trading ranges, efficient markets, inefficient markets, insider trading, outsider trading, inside-out trading, outside-in trading, tops, double tops, triple tops, head and shoulder patterns, wearing you top inside-out, wearing your top outside-in, bottoms, double bottoms, wearing your pants inside-out, wearing your pants outside-in, cup and saucer patterns, cup and handle patterns, mugs, bottles, drinking from a cup and saucer, drinking from a mug, drinking straight from the bottle, any of the stuff that kittydashword posts, any of the stuff that phaedrus posts and lastly but by no means leastly any of the stuff posted by Paper Tiger.
Edit: knew I would not get it all right first time ;)
Who knows, the market's been strong this week.
I'm sure the Alliant/Trustpower situation is the key driver of activity. The TPW price has been a bit weaker, one way or the other I'm sure their exit will create an opportunity for IFT with that investment. The other issue that I beleive was weighing on the SP was bird flu fears which you don't hear much about these days.
I think the market has also been a bit concerned at the likely effect on Wellington Airport's profits if Quantas/Air NZ get approval for their code share scheme which they seem to be doggedly pursuing.
Very nice PT. Starts my morning with a smile.
Regards
Down 3.2% on what looks like HUGE volumes. Maybe not a breakout lol.
What do you make of this http://www.nzx.com/market/market_ann...pany?id=138510?
Is this announcement the cause of the gigantic fall today?
Or was it Wellington Airport's increased fees? - I thought that particular announcement would have a $positive$ effect on the SP.
Austral Pacific Energy Ltd. ("Austral Pacific") announced today that it hasQuote:
quote:Originally posted by hiawatha
Who are Arrowhead Energy? Are they a new company?
They seem to have a website which is still under construction.
hiawatha
signed a heads of agreement to acquire all the shares of Arrowhead Energy
Limited ("Arrowhead"), a small, privately held, New Zealand oil and gas
exploration and production company, for net NZ$17 million (US$11.0 million).
Arrowhead's principal assets include a 33% interest in the Cheal oil field
(PMP 38156), a 33% interest in the surrounding exploration permit (PEP
38738-01) and a 25% interest in the Kahili mining permit (PMP 38153).
Why has the landing charges debate caused the SP to drop?
AFAIK increased charges = increased revenue = increased SP???
Mike lee has been mouthing off about the ports issue, and also about Aucland buses. Could be making people nervous.
Check out the volume today! What does this mean?
That last post sounds like I'm expecting something good...
No, I'm just curious as to who's buying/selling $5,368,785 worth of IFT shares.
Yes, but why didn't that volume push the price up?
Why would it?Quote:
quote:Yes, but why didn't that volume push the price up?
5.7% jump today after increased holding in Trustpower. Interesting.
Trustpower will now form part of the IFT accounts, cashflows, depreciation, the works. Time to rework those valuation spreadsheets.
The IFT interim accounts are due out any day soon and should help consolidate the current SP. Im picking further upward movement to come.
Note that the warrants have never been cheaper.
Not much comment on the as I guess it's only a half a billion $deal!
I guess everyones trying to work out what this is worth to IFT. They're saying the implied price is about $6.20 or 11.5% below the market price of $7 so that's around $50m below market - not bad!
The market certainly likes it, up another 15c today so far.
The timing of the Stern report is also a big vote of confidence for TPW/IFT too.
Yet another smart investment by IFT[^]
Infratil Airports Europe: October 2006 Traffic Statistics
Glasgow Prestwick Airport
Glasgow Prestwick handled a total of 226,304 passengers in October, a 2%
increase on the prior year.
Freight volume of 2,896 tonnes is GPA's best result since December 2004,
driven by strong volumes across all scheduled carriers, with Atlas/Polar
having a particularly good month. British Airways World Cargo services began
towards the end of the month.
Kent International Airport
Kent International Airport handled 2,509 tonnes of freight in October, a
record month and a 48.5% ahead of the corresponding month last year.
This strong growth is due in part to the European winter approaching, with
increased volumes of fresh produce being imported from Africa. However,
export volumes (368 tonnes) are also growing, partly due to the increasing
confidence that airlines have in Kent's team and its ability to deliver
quality service in both import and export functions.
Luebeck Airport
Scheduled passenger numbers in October, at 63,824, were marginally down on
the prior year 64,385. Load factors were stronger on all routes than in
September, with a slight softness on the prior year.
I'm encouraged by the above especially the bit about Kent. I'm convinced that is going to be an outstanding investment in the long run.
Looking good for Wellington International Airport too.
Watchdog deals blow to codeshare
Nov 3, 2006
A competition watchdog has dealt a major blow to plans by Air New Zealand and Qantas to code share on the transtasman route.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission issued a draft decision denying the plan.
It says the proposed agreement would allow Qantas and Air New Zealand to co-ordinate all transtasman activities, including holding meetings to determine schedules and prices.
The commission's chairman Graeme Samuel says the deal would fundamentally change the competitive process.
He says the commission considers the agreement would only result in limited public benefits in the form of cost savings to the airlines as well as marginal improvements in schedule spread, connectivity and frequent flyer options.
The commission is now seeking submissions on Friday's draft decision before making a final determination.
IFT is set for a great few years ahead........ 'The next 12 months should start to see some of the fruit from the efforts that have gone into the businesses that have cost us significantly to date,'Mr Morrison said.
Infratil profit drop 'in line with expectations'
14 November 2006
Wellington infrastructure investor Infratil has reported a 21 per cent drop in tax-paid profit for the six months to September.
But chief executive Lloyd Morrison said the $11.8 million profit was in line with expectations. The market agreed and shares closed 15 cents up at $4.90.
The consolidation of bus and ferry operator Stagecoach lifted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to $66.6 million, from $39.1 million the same time last year.
Consolidated assets were $1.76 billion, more than $700 million higher, "so quite a big change in the structure of the business", Mr Morrison said.
A dividend of 5c a share would be paid on January 19, unchanged from a year ago.
Mr Morrison said cash flow included depreciation and amortisation of $22.2 million, up $7.1 million, as a result of recent investments.
Interest costs were $11.3 million higher, reflecting the increased debt funding for new investments.
"The next 12 months should start to see some of the fruit from the efforts that have gone into the businesses that have cost us significantly to date," Mr Morrison said.
The company expects to open an offer of new Perpetual Infratil Infrastructure Bonds to raise at least $100 million.
The bonds would have no maturity date and an initial yield of 9 per cent.
Two weeks ago, Infratil agreed to pay $445 million to increase its ownership of TrustPower from 35 per cent to nearly 59 per cent. It will sell some of the shares and retain a 50.1 per cent controlling interest.
TrustPower contributed $20.2 million for the half-year.
Recommendations in the recent British Stern report on global warming, if implemented, would bring an increased emphasis on renewable energy generation, Mr Morrison said.
Bus passenger numbers continued to grow in Wellington, and the rate of decline in Auckland was flattening.
Growth in the business had been less than hoped for. Though there appeared to be strong political will and policy intention to get people out of their cars, this was not yet flowing through into action, Mr Morrison said.
A decision has been made to renew Wellington's electric trolley buses for another 20 years.
"Actually finalising agreement seems interminable, so orders for the new electric buses have not yet been made."
Wellington International Airport, which is 66 per cent owned by Infratil, increased its before- tax earnings by 5 per cent through its off-airport retail development and passenger services.
Domestic passenger numbers were flat and trans-Tasman traffic was down slightly.
Wellington airport chief executive Simon Draper said long-term growth would come from passenger growth – which explained its strong stance against the proposed code-share between Air New Zealand and Qantas, and the promotion of long-haul services out of the capital.
The first stage of the $31 million runway safety extension project had been completed at the south end, and work was about to begin to add 90 metres to the northern end.
Wellington airport plans to increase landing fees by 3 per cent a year for the next five years.
Mr Morrison said the $6 million loss by its European airports business – consisting of Glasgow Prestwick, Kent and Lubeck – was also in line with expectations because of the acquisition of Kent and Lubeck airports.
Aren't IFTWB an absolute bargain at 159c with an intrinsic value of 140c??
... or am I missing something?
Cheers
Harry
Discl: Hold some
Harry
With just under three years to run on the 2009 warrants you are totally correct. The warrants have never been cheaper and are a good way to leverage into a growth company.
The warrants are an absolute steal, on these figures. The market is effectively saying that the heads will grow by no more than 19 cents over the next 3 years! A dose of reality is required, here, surely.
IFT has increased by 60c over the last 3 or so weeks and the warrant a little less. Should the IFT drift down in price due profit taking or simply market sentiment then the warrant will follow them down. We have seen the likes of GPG slip from 270 odd to 240 in the last few months. Nothing wrong with either share but the market decides the value.
I'm always amazed at how little IFT is talked about on these forums.
TPW special shareholders meeting tomorrow to finalise the IFT/Trust shareholding without launching a full takeover for TPW.
The 'go ahead' should give the IFT SP a little nudge up before the week is out.
IFT airports update. All sounding more positive than ever.
The market is going to love this given that the airport business has been 'out' of focus for some time.
TPW can take a back seat for a few days.
GENERAL: IFT: Infratil Email Update
18 December 2006
Infratil Email Updates are sent to interested shareholders, analysts, brokers
and other parties who have registered their interest on
http://www.infratil.com
Wellington Airport November 2006 Traffic Statistics
November traffic results were more positive than they have been in recent
months. Domestic passengers grew by 2.6% on last November (flat year to
date), and the domestic load factor in November was 76%. International
passengers were up 11.8% on last November (year to date down 1.3%) with a
load factor of 75% for the month. Both these results are positive signs. Air
New Zealand has announced capacity reductions for a number of cities in
Northern Summer season 2007 (our winter), but the longer term outlook for
international traffic growth remains positive. The prospects for profitable
competition and growth, based on lower cost models, now seem better than they
were earlier this year. Now that the code-share has been dropped, it seems
more likely that Jetstar will expand on the Tasman, there are signs of Virgin
Blue (Pacific Blue) performing better and seeking expansion opportunities,
and Air New Zealand has said that it may revisit its model for the Tasman.
In other developments, Regency Duty Free commenced trading on-schedule on 1
December, despite delays earlier this year resulting from an arbitration with
the incumbent. The first stage of the international terminal development will
be largely complete by end January. Trading at the Airport Retail Park is
well underway with Stage 1 of the centre now almost completely leased. A
number of improvements and expansion of capacity have commenced in the car
park. Finally, Wellington Airport has now received airline responses to its
3% per annum initial pricing proposal and will now consider airline views.
http://www.infratil.com/wial_financial_summary.htm
Infratil Airports Europe: November 2006 Traffic Statistics
Glasgow Prestwick Airport
Glasgow Prestwick handled a total of 161,101 passengers in November against a
prior year total of 166,745.
New services launched throughout 2006 have benefited passenger throughput,
set against a reduction in Ryanair capacity of more than 8,000 seats.
A new four-times-weekly service to Riga, operated by Ryanair, began operating
at the start of the month.
The airport handled 2,872 tonnes of freight which represents a 14% increase
on the prior year total and the second highest monthly total of the calendar
year to date.
There were strong performances from Polar and Panalpina, while tonnage on ad
hoc/charter movements is more than three times the prior year total, helped
in part by four charters carrying whisky to South America.
Kent International Airport
Kent International handled 2,988 tonnes of freight in November making it
another record month, up 16% on October and nearly double the prior year
figure.
Scheduled services by MK Airlines account for 82% of the total tonnage and,
while freight volume is traditionally high at this time of year, exports were
21% up on October and continue to show encouraging signs.
Luebeck Airport
Passenger throughput in November, at 41,708, was marginally down on the prior
year total of 42,623.
Load factors show an 8% increase on 2005 - roughly the same margin by which
overall seat capacity has been reduced over the same period.
Ryanair announced their sixth destination from Luebeck during the month. They
will operate a four-times-weekly service to M****ille in the South of France
from January 2007.
Interview with Lloyd Morrison. 2007 should be another good year.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/features/...e.php/fb001bc4
IFT options are real winners
Agree living2. Its a scary thought to think what the head SP could be on warrant exercise date in 2009.
Don't expect 2007 to be a consolidation year for IFT, I think that management has bigger plans.
According to the price of the warrants at the moment, people expect IFT heads will grow by 14 cents in the next few years...
one of the lowest premiums on conversion prices around and still have almost 3 years to run
Make that 10 cents now. Wow, the heads are actually catching up to the warrants!?
Two and a half years ago when these warrants were issued they traded at a premium of 90 cents. The premium should be between 30 and 40 cents based on the current cost of capital.
10 cents.......
What is your guesstimate for head shares and warrants when they are due to be taken up?
My guestimate:Shares $7.50,warrants$4.00
Disclosure:Bought lots of IFTWB 2 months ago
Bu*ger. Why didn't you buy some for me as well?
sorry romer,they were hard to pick up in any volume as it was as only small volumes traded BUT my point regarding the last post(i could easily be accused of ramping these)is what are they going to be worth in 2009 when the warrents are due to be paid up ie my guestimate ,head shares worth $7.50,warrants worth $4.00
i bought my warrants at 75c back in late 2005
sorry just felt the need to boast!
:D:D
A boast or not complements to you Footsie
Footsie
What kind of volumes did you buy (obviously worth boasting about)
Well IFT gave me some for free!!! Unfortunately not enough so I topped up at 91c sometime in the past 12m I think.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Footsie
i bought my warrants at 75c back in late 2005
sorry just felt the need to boast!
:D:D
There is something up with IFT. The SP movements today were unusual.
Buyers at $5.61.
If there is something in the behaviour then we could be in for a few interesting days ahead.
Spotted this one too. Average email update and then this price movement.
8 minutes in and buyers at 5.65
This never ceases to amaze me; heads @ $5.7, warrants at @ $2.3.
A massive 10c rise in heads predicted.
Caesius are you referring to the relationship between the warrant price and heads price?
One could equally predict a drop in the warrants to bring things back into alignment?
Gisborne Gold
You are forgetting sbout the cost of capital on the leverage. Money is no free. The warrants are significantly underpriced at $2.30.
On confirmation that the head SP will hold at these levels then the warrant will jump approx 15 cents before close today (or there abouts).
Thanks Toddy. There wasn't a lot of science in my previous post, I hadn't quite understood what Caesius was getting at and was hoping for a clarification as to what it was that was amazing.
Intuitively I would have said the same as you, that the warrants are undervalued relative to the heads but I hadn't got as far as doing a valuation calculation to substantiate it.
OK I took a proper look at what Black-Scholes might give me as a value for IFTWB.
If I adjust for the IFT dividend yield and the dilutionary effect of the warrants I calculate a valuation for IFTWB in the $2.12 to $2.20, which is below current buy bids which sit at $2.34. Is IFTWB in fact over-priced, contrary to what we've been saying?
This is still my prediction as a rock bottom minimum prices for head shares and warrants>Anyone else like to predict?
What is your guesstimate for head shares and warrants when they are due to be taken up? ie 2009
My guestimate:Shares $7.50,warrants$4.00
Disclosure:Bought lots of IFTWB 2 months ago
How many are lots? Do you have some to share?
OK I'll make a guess. IFT $8.50 at the time the warrants expire.
Well done living2.
I sold down 25,000 a couple of weeks ago to help balance out my portfolio. However I still have a significant holding.
There seems to be a raid going on (block building) by some insto.
I watch IFT very closely and have not seen this kind of activity for a number of years. I'm quietly confident that IFT is now on the radar of some major players.
As for future price, I think that the the head shares will head north at the usual 20% pa until warrant exercise date. That makes the potential warrant price too scary to mention.
Even the wet summer and full hydro lakes in NZ will not hold back the consolidation of IFT. The company has too many other ace cards yet to play.
I agree Toddy.A lot of aces in their hand>I consider IFT to have over taken BIL,then GPGin the past now Fischer fund may be ahead of IFT
Interesting, GG. I am not really au fait with the way the Black-Scholes methodology works but I am a little surprised that it doesn't place the value of the warrants at a greater margin above the heads, given (a) that the warrants have two and a half years to run, (b) the rate of increase in the market price of the heads, and (c) the fact that the dilutionary effect of the warrants should already be built into the market price of the heads. (Even allowing for the divs on the heads).Quote:
quote:Originally posted by gisborne_gold
OK I took a proper look at what Black-Scholes might give me as a value for IFTWB.
If I adjust for the IFT dividend yield and the dilutionary effect of the warrants I calculate a valuation for IFTWB in the $2.12 to $2.20, which is below current buy bids which sit at $2.34. Is IFTWB in fact over-priced, contrary to what we've been saying?
DISC: Have held heads and warrants for some length of time, and am seriously debating whether I should switch entirely from the heads to the "tails".
NZ's Infratil buys 51 pc of Perth Energy
NZPA | Monday, 29 January 2007
Wellington-based Infratil said today it had bought a stake in one of three electricity retailers in Western Australia for $A7 million ($NZ7.86 million).
Its Infratil Energy Australia (IEA) unit is buying 51 per cent of Perth Energy Pty through the issue of new shares.
Largely owned by a handful of management and executives, Perth Energy was established in 1999 and has been trading profitably since 2005.
IEA chief executive Darryl Flukes, who will take up the position of chairman of Perth Energy, said the investment fitted perfectly with Infratil's growth aspirations in Australia.
Mr Flukes said the Western Australian energy market had just been deregulated, but currently lacked contestable residential customers.
"It's very very early days compared to eastern states and New Zealand in terms of contestable customers."
One of the attractions of Perth Energy, which has 50 large customers, was a well-advanced project for a 90 megawatt gas plant.
"Certainly we're going to be well-placed with Perth Energy to be able to take on a larger customer base," he said.
"I can't say we've set a target for customer numbers, just as many as we can get while they remain profitable."
Perth Energy managing director Ky Cao said his company was pleased to have found a strong financial backer with experience in both retail and generation.
Perth Energy had no plans to market or install renewable generation, but most of its supply comes from the renewable source of landfill gas.
Infratil Australia was on the lookout for affordable generation assets to complement its growing eastern retail base, Mr Flukes said.
"We've found that the prices at which existing plant has been changing hands we haven't been able to make that work. We're just finding it more effective to build rather than purchase at the moment."
Infratil had not identified any investment opportunities outside the energy industry.
Shares in Infratil, which recently upped its stake in energy retailer and generator TrustPower to 50.5 per cent, were down 2c at $5.61.
A small investment, but good news nonetheless as their track record in creating huge value out of electricity assets is impressive.
Anyone else want to share price 2009???
$10.00 maybe????
i've held the warrants since 2005
mangaged to buy at 75c
i sold on friday.....
nice gains and i feel the nz market will run out of puff sometime soon....
esp the large caps which have had 30%+ gains in 6 months
i'd buy back in if IFT went sub $5
1.4 mil shares traded at $5.95 early this afternoon. Whoever is buying is obviously very serious about building a useful position.
Again i believe the buyer is fisher...... i note its just been added to their list of stocks they hold......
give these guys another 10 years and they will control all the growth stocks in NZ !!!
An investment company holding and investment company? mmmQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Footsie
Again i believe the buyer is fisher...... i note its just been added to their list of stocks they hold......
The purchase of the new energy company looks like a good move.
Energy assets are doing extremely well, TPW now over $8 - pretty tidy gain for IFT in only 6 months.
However their airport investments which have underperformed a bit in recent times are set for a good run with the falls in oil. Purchase of Kent set to be a stellar long term investment.
In short all current investments looking good with no duds
The technical boys out there will be keeping a close eye on the IFT SP today. Will the current buyers be prepared to test the $6 mark.
Wow, the buyers have really cleared out on the warrants, the highest bidder is at 2.36 with a market price of 2.65.
Their closing price of 2.50 means a premium of only 20c above the heads, which means the market is saying that IFT share price will increase by only 3.4% over the next two and a half years! That rate of growth would be well out of line with the progress of IFT over the years. Either the share price is too high or the warrant price is too low.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Caesius
Wow, the buyers have really cleared out on the warrants, the highest bidder is at 2.36 with a market price of 2.65.
Maybe the market has become unsettled about the Stagecoach investment, after IFT's recently expressed concerns about the Government's attitude to public passenger transport policy?
The warrants often move in the opposite direction of the heads and the variance jumps around.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by COLIN
Their closing price of 2.50 means a premium of only 20c above the heads, which means the market is saying that IFT share price will increase by only 3.4% over the next two and a half years! That rate of growth would be well out of line with the progress of IFT over the years. Either the share price is too high or the warrant price is too low.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Caesius
Wow, the buyers have really cleared out on the warrants, the highest bidder is at 2.36 with a market price of 2.65.
Maybe the market has become unsettled about the Stagecoach investment, after IFT's recently expressed concerns about the Government's attitude to public passenger transport policy?
I wouldn't read too much into the stagecoach talk, IFT are outstanding at lobbying government
Colin you make a good point regarding whether or not the price of the head shares takes into account the dilutionary effect of the outstanding warrants.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by COLIN
Interesting, GG. I am not really au fait with the way the Black-Scholes methodology works but I am a little surprised that it doesn't place the value of the warrants at a greater margin above the heads, given (a) that the warrants have two and a half years to run, (b) the rate of increase in the market price of the heads, and (c) the fact that the dilutionary effect of the warrants should already be built into the market price of the heads. (Even allowing for the divs on the heads).
I've re-run my Black-Scholes calculations with yesterday's closing prices (IFT $5.80 IFTWB $2.50).
Adjusting for dilution I calculate a warrant value of $2.19.
Not adjusting for dilution I calculate a warrant value of $2.56.
I see several possible conclusions.
1. The prices for IFT and IFTWB are in balance, more or less, and the head share price already incorporates a discount for the warrants' dilutionary effect already.
2. The warrants are overpriced because buyers have forgotten to allow for the dilutionary effect.
3. Black-Scholes isn't a very useful valuation method.
We can't use Infratil's balance sheet to confirm (1) because the shares are trading at well above the $3.22 NTA per share. But it would be nice to think that the market is working and that my earlier IFTWB valuation was incorrect because I needn't have discounted for the dilutionary effect.
What does anyone make of the latest email update?
Never mind the update, we're now looking at this: Infratil profits up nearly 4x, meets council about bus problems.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/news/scne...e.php/c68f0e66
^^^ Which was a bad announcement, apparently. IFT and IFTWB down quite a bit.
I guess people could be worried about the Europe airports, but all the other investments seem to be on track.
The europe airports went backwards because the previous year only included a part period of losses from the Kent/Lubeck acquisitions which they said was in line with their expectations.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Caesius
^^^
I guess people could be worried about the Europe airports, but all the other investments seem to be on track.
That have issues with the buses in that if planned regulation goes ahead, their upside might be limited.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Caesius
but all the other investments seem to be on track.
The buses only make up a minor part of the IFT investment portfolio and will more than pay their way. The airports results were all in line with market expectations (Kent was ahead of expectation).
IFT is mainly an energy company and the result was very pleasing. The pull back in the current share price is primarily due to the SP going up 25% since late last year. Hence, the minor breather.
Reasonable growth coming out of the airport business during the last month.
Passenger numbers buoyant at Wellington Airport
Email this storyPrint this story 5:00AM Friday March 16, 2007
By Owen Hembry
Passenger numbers are up at Wellington Airport but a lack of capacity growth will constrain demand in the next 12 months, says infrastructure investor Infratil.
Infratil holds a 66 per cent stake in the airport, whose domestic and international passenger numbers rose last month by 4.2 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively.
Load factors - the percentage of seats filled - were well ahead of last year and the airport expected a lack of capacity growth to constrain buoyant demand for travel in the next year.
Infratil said the experience at Wellington was just part of a bigger picture including an imbalance between demand and supply.
"There is an airline boom under way supported by high demand, constrained supply and, not surprisingly under those circumstances, significant increases in average fares."
February passenger numbers were up 6 per cent on last year at Glasgow Prestwick Airport and up nearly 30 per cent at Luebeck Airport.
Freight handled at Kent International Airport was up nearly 50 per cent on last year at 2408 tonnes.
Infratil's shares closed down 3c yesterday at $5.47.
Still can't work out if this is a good or bad announcement. And I've read it three times.
Caesius
When reading the NZ airport statistics remember to ignore the customery IFT dig at Air NZ. IFT has an international airport portfolio and like to highlight how small minded Air NZ is in its approach to growing the market within NZ.
The report was all positive except for the plans of a dodgy budget airline that pulled out of the proposed States flights from KIA.
They are making very good progress in the freight department. However, I do not know how freight tonnage flows through to the bottom line.
As Borat would say, "Wa-wa-wee-wa". Check out the volumes thru IFTWB today. Does this have anything to do with the Vic Energy announcement?
The extremely healthy volumes continue in IFT.
Interesting Herald article below.
Debate over second Auckland airport turns nasty
The public debate over a planned second airport for Auckland has turned nasty with one mayor accusing the country's largest airport company of "foul" and dishonest tactics.
Waitakere mayor Bob Harvey said he was staggered the Auckland International Airport Limited (AIAL) had given $19,000 to the Whenuapai Airport Action Group (WAAG) which he called a small ginger group opposed to a second commercial airport at the Whenuapai air base when the air force moved out.
Mr Harvey, whose council formed a commercial venture with Infratil and other local councils to promote Whenuapai as a second commercial airport, said they had long suspected the action group was being funded by "foul means rather than fair.
"AIAL is the business equivalent of the Exclusive Brethren," he said.
It was "a major listed New Zealand company hiding behind a supposed community group, acting out of total self interest, and trying to keep it all secret".
He said they were taking legal advice and considering a complaint to the Commerce Commission.
Advertisement
Advertisement"AIAL has clearly been working in an anti-competitive way to undermine our project and protect their monopoly."
However, AIAL chief executive Don Huse, said his company wanted to promote debate on the issue and give a voice to public concern.
He said there was nothing secret about the financial or advisory support AIAL had given to WAAG or any community group.
He said the debate on the future of Whenuapai was of national and regional importance and his company had absolutely and utterly complied with the "very clear legislative and regulatory obligations" and had done nothing wrong.
"It is a debate that is important for all people in Auckland and in fact more broadly across New Zealand."
He said WAAG wanted to represent a local view, and did not have the resources of Waitakere City Council and Infratil. The council and Infratil had spent "enormous sums of money" on the due process, he said.
"We are happy to help out to help the debate be as informed and as open as possible."
He said the council was promoting an outcome and the challenge was for the community voices which opposed the plan, to be heard.
"I would be very concerned as a matter of principle if the voice of community interest was in any way to be stifled.
"They (Waitakere City Council) have a commercial interest in what is being promoted here and it strikes me they also have to listen to the community.
"It seems to me to be pretty telling that they are critical of any assistance being given, small as it may be, to community interests to register their concerns.
"Is that really democracy?" he said.
He said AIAL "absolutely refutes" any suggestion it had not acted openly and honestly.
- NZPA
Interesting read, I'd like to see some major announcements from Infratil's way.
The IFT warrants are looking very cheap based on todays head share price.
I agree they're undervalued.
My valuation model, based on an IFT price of $6.14, assesses the warrants at $2.92 whereas the last trade was at $2.81.
Make that 6.17 now... What's caused this?
Whats caused this.
There could be a number of reasons. The volumes and current price trend started early January and has hardly paused since. It would not surprise me to see a disclosure notice from a new investor sometime in the near future.
The movement over the last few days could be associated with Macquries venture into NZ airport assets.
Interesting. Excuse my lack of knowledge but any guesses on who it could be?Quote:
quote:It would not surprise me to see a disclosure notice from a new investor sometime in the near future.
Caesius
From todays market summary.
'Trustpower majority shareholder Infratil was also up strongly to 10c to $6.25, as rumours of an interested buyer for Wellington Airport emerged'
Fantastic news.
Wellington to get 61 new trolley buses
Email this storyPrint this story 7:00PM Thursday May 10, 2007
Wellington commuters are to get a more comfortable ride with 61 new trolley buses to hit the capital's roads.
The Greater Wellington Regional Council and NZ Bus signed a contract today for the new-seat trolley buses.
Costing $460,000 each, the buses would not only provide environmental benefits but would be a significant step up in terms of passenger comfort and reliability, council chairman Ian Buchanan said.
Two prototypes would be on the road in August this year, and delivery of the remainder of the fleet would take place over two years starting in February next year.
NZ Bus CEO Bill Rae said they were working on other improvements that would make Wellingtonians' trips more reliable and pleasant.
Green Party MP Sue Kedgley said she was delighted a Wellington icon had been saved.
Trolley buses were a quiet, sustainable form of transport using renewable energy sources and did not emit pollution, she said.
Apparently an airport in England has been sold to private equity at more than twice what IFT has valued its airports at. Maybe they are going to sell the lot.
Looks OK AR and the share split and another warrent giveaway should put even more of a rocket under things.
Initially IFTWB have gone up and IFT holding own.
IFT
14/05/2007
FLLYR
REL: 1205 HRS Infratil Limited
FLLYR: IFT: Infratil Results for Year Ended 31 March 2007
Infratil had a successful year as measured by returns to shareholders,
transactions undertaken and progress at each of its businesses.
Developments at TrustPower and Infratil Energy Australia were especially
notable. Wellington Airport and Energy Developments were solid performers.
There was progress at Infratil Airports Europe, NZ Bus and the co-investment
agreement with NZ Superannuation and it is hoped that each will translate
into future value uplift and hence returns.
Infratil's goal is a 20% per annum after tax return to shareholders and this
was achieved in the year to 31 March 2007. Imputed dividends of 12.5 cents
per share were paid and the share price rose 31%.
RESULTS
For the year to 31 March 2007, Infratil's earnings before interest,
depreciation, amortisations, realisations and tax were $145.2 million (2006
$77.6 million).
Earnings before interest, tax and realisations were $91.3 million (2006 $53.5
million).
Net profit was $34.7 million (2006 $8.0 million).
FINANCIAL POSITION
As at 31 March 2007, total consolidated assets were $3,730 million (2006
$1,705 million). Consolidated equity was $1,686 million (2006 $793 million).
Net group bank debt was $548 million (2006 $253 million) and subordinated
bond debt was $941 million (2006 $482 million).
Net bank borrowing of Infratil and its wholly owned subsidiaries was $192
million (2006 $140 million) and $730 million (2006 $482 million) of
Infrastructure Bonds were on issue.
Infratil's shareholders' funds, after minorities, were $875 million (2006
$666 million). When listed investments are included at market values
shareholders' funds were $1,616 million (2006 $1,159 million).
Consolidation of TrustPower for the first time and a number of "one-off"
transactions make it difficult to compare consolidated figures at 31 March
2007 with the prior year. The attached results breakdown and commentary
should be read in conjunction with the financial statements.
WIN-WIN-WIN : EMPLOYEES & COMMUNITIES
As a long term investor Infratil believes that its employees and communities
(including customers) must also "win" if it is going to continue to be
successful for its capital providers.
Achieving wins for these three groups will not necessarily occur
coincidentally. However, over the longer term, each of capital providers,
employees and communities must benefit from their interaction with Infratil
if it is to be successful.
Infratil's involvement in the Community Awards with Waitakere City, the
Wellington Community Trust and TrustPower; its support of the Wellington
Marine Education Centre; the support of NZ Bus for Starship Hospital, North
Shore Netball, the Karori Sanctuary, Wellington Zoo and Cuba Street Carnival
are all tangible indications of Infratil's reinvestment into its communities.
At each of its businesses Infratil is supporting initiatives to invest in
employees and to enhance their working environments. Infratil's businesses
are also investing to provide better services and facilities for their
customers and communities.
POLICY & SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT
Infratil's businesses have high levels of community involvement or
partnership. They are also in sectors of political sensitivity and interest.
Interactions over the last year have been constructive and complementary.
Local partnerships include with Wellington City (Wellington Airport),
Waitakere, North Shore and Rodney Councils (Whenuapai Airport), Tauranga
Energy Community Trust (TrustPower), Greater Wellington Regional Council
(Wellington buses), A
I nominate Lloyd Morrison as "Man of the Decade". Here is someone who delivers year after year, who senses the pulse of business as well as human aspirations, and who no-one seems to love to hate. He is one of the most astute businessmen around, and I only wish that I had more than the 15% of my portfolio tied to the fortunes of IFT.
Author Topic Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 of 20
living2
Member
New Zealand
57 Posts
Posted - 21/12/2006 : 4:53:34 PM
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What is your guesstimate for head shares and warrants when they are due to be taken up?
My guestimate:Shares $7.50,warrants$4.00
Disclosure:Bought lots of IFTWB 2 months ago
Nice one,looking good
I'll be opening the bubbly tonight.
Congratulations to IFT and the management.
I've read the below passage about 10 times today.
IFTWC..... 'sweet'
Infratil intends to undertake a 1 for 1 share split so that the total number of shares on issue in Infratil doubles and immediately after the share split, a free one for ten pro-rata issue of 5 year equity warrants will be made to all shareholders and existing warrant holders.
Key terms of the new warrants are likely to be:
Exercise price : $4.25 (NB. The warrant issue is post the share split.)
Final maturity : June 2012
Infratil eyes up Aussie energy sector
By ANDREW JANES - The Dominion Post | Tuesday, 15 May 2007
Infratil said it was eyeing opportunities in the Australian energy sector as it delivered an annual after-tax profit more than four times as big as the year before.
The Wellington-based infrastructure investor posted an after-tax profit of $34.7 million for the year to March 31, compared with $8 million in the March 2006 year.
But the two results were not directly comparable, mainly because Infratil lifted its stake in TrustPower from 35 per cent to 51 per cent during the year.
Infratil's share price closed 30 cents up at $6.45.
Infratil singled out TrustPower and its Australian energy subsidiary Infratil Energy Australia as having lifted performance. TrustPower made a $36.5 million contribution to Infratil's result, compared with $28.6 million the year before.
Commenting on TrustPower's specialisation in renewable energy generation, such as wind and hydro, Infratil managing director Lloyd Morrison said: "I think it (renewables) is a very good place to have a lot of assets."
The British Government's Stern Report, published last year, had created a tipping point that should translate into government policy to favour renewable electricity generation, Mr Morrison said.
"If we are lucky we should have some positive surprises."
Infratil Energy Australia generated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $9.6 million, compared with a $2.2 million loss the previous year.
IEA increased its gas and electricity retail customers from 77,000 to 186,000 during the year and its generation capacity from 40 to 70 megawatts.
Mr Morrison said Infratil was looking at more generation acquisitions in Australia.
"We hope to have an extra 150MW of generation over there by this time next year."
At some stage in the next five years there would be a larger generation acquisition there, he said.
Infratil also expects to increase its involvement in the Australian energy sector through TrustPower, which is developing a wind farm in South Australia.
"Over time TrustPower will ease its way into Australia," Mr Morrison said. "Certainly we will support that. We see the Snowtown (wind farm) development in Australia as the beginning of more exposure to that market." He expected TrustPower would do well in electricity retailing in Australia.
Wellington Airport, in which Infratil has a 66 per cent stake, posted an ebitda of $49.6 million, up from $47 million the year before. The result reflected increased passenger services and property rental incomes but muted traffic growth.
But Infratil's European airports division reported an ebitda loss of $1.9 million, compared with earnings of $1.4 million the year before, and a net loss of $20 million. "We believe we can turn all three airports (Glasgow Prestwick, Kent and Lubeck) into substantive airports," Mr Morrison said. "I think we are making some progress but it's a long, hard, slow job."
Meanwhile NZ Bus, which Infratil bought in November 2005, made a $21 million earnings contribution to Infratil. NZ Bus owns the Stagecoach bus services in Auckland and Wellington and Fullers Ferries in Auckland.
Infratil director Tim Brown said it was not a particularly successful year in terms of increased patronage. But bus passenger numbers in Auckland had grown in the fourth quarter.
Forsyth Barr research head Rob Mercer said it was a solid result. "We like the assets they own."
Infratil had taken a strategic approach to Australia and now had the confidence to push forward.
"They have got the skill base to (expand in Australia) successfully," Mr Mercer said.
Very good result for IFT with lots of growth ahead.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Toddy
I've read the below passage about 10 times today.
IFTWC..... 'sweet'
Infratil intends to undertake a 1 for 1 share split so that the total number of shares on issue in Infratil doubles and immediately after the share split, a free one for ten pro-rata issue of 5 year equity warrants will be made to all shareholders and existing warrant holders.
Key terms of the new warrants are likely to be:
Exercise price : $4.25 (NB. The warrant issue is post the share split.)
Final maturity : June 2012
Seems to me that the new warrants should be a very good investment given the success of past warrant issues.Still kick myself for selling out of IFTWB too soon.
Hold head shares but will look to buy the new warrants.
Interesting to go back to some of the earlier posts on this thread, like this one posted exactly two years ago.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by trendy
I have never liked IFT. The management contract with Morrison is not transparent. The IFT Board is effectively filled with Morrison management so is not very independent. What happens if IFT ever needed to renegotiate the management contract...they would end up negotiating with themselves (which is probably what they do now). So what is the management contract with Morrison worth? Maybe IFT could take a lesson from the property trust company structure and put the management contract up for tender. It could be worth a lot to shareholders.
Now the other issue I have with IFT is that they issued warrants with a strike price of $3.50 supposedly for the company to get additional capital for future investments. Yet here they are using capital for the share buy back program. Talk about a money go round. That would be the equivalent of NOG having a share buy back program on the heads and taking the money from the options to fund it. NUTS!
Is Trendy still around? Wonder if he would say the same today? (Mind you, I probably wouldn't necessarily like to be reminded of everything I have said on this forum over the years!)
My average purchase price for the IFTWB's, bought soon after they were issued, was about 77c. I see that, on today's figures, the value of my holding has increased by about 380%. There are very few other investments I have made which have beaten that, over the same time frame, so I'll definitely be interested in picking up more than my allocation of IFTWC's.
I have also held IFT heads since about the time the coy was first floated, and they have also done very well, but not as exceptional as the warrants - I particularly like the long-dated nature of these, which is long enough to encompass normal business cycles.
Interesting to go back to some of the earlier posts on this thread, like this one posted exactly two years ago.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by COLIN
[/quote]
I recall getting criticised for suggesting IFTWB were worth over a dollar at one time, but hey, hindsight is a great thing, is it not ?
The only grizzle I have is that I sold down 150,000 warrants in February (when the market was being sold off) at an average price of $2.38 to help fund the purchase of our kiwi fruit farm.
Lets talk about the future. IFT management once again sound more positive than ever about the future prospects of the company. They have invested in growth sectors. The new warrants on issue have a better chance of out performing any previous issues as the company has a substantial asset base to grow even faster than ever before.
Maybe its time to sell the house and buy IFT derivatives......
'Infratil rose 14c to 680 on a higher than normal, $2.8 million turnover. Mr Porter said Infratil might be benefiting from the international sale of airport assets, but its share price was only back to the point it was after its strong result.'
I would have thought that a better reason would have been that 7 June is the record date for the share split and 8 June for the free warrants.
Everyone holding the heads and B warrants at the close of the market today are entitled to the new C warrant bonus issue on a 1 for 10 basis.
Anyone like to guess what they will trade at on Monday. The B warrants started off in the 40-50 cent range.
My pick, 40 cents per warrant. Purely based on a discounted cost of capital basis.