Fair call.
Printable View
Haha that was a pretty short trade. Stopped out obviously.
GDP in the US rockets as does oil up over 10%! Chinese market up double digit as well.
I would suggest we are seeing a shift of wealth from Wall St to Main St.
i.e. big multi nationals that earn their money offshore will struggle and so to energy producers.
Meanwhile consumers & retailers benefit with more money in their pockets to spend.
A healthier economy overall, but it takes time to adjust. Small Caps besides the giant retailers should benefit more than the DOW,
Still think this ain't over & the spike in oil was purely short covering.
Some parts of the economy as suggested above will benefit, others will crash.
So it probably depends how much the imminent debt crisis relating to oil impacts the confidence of the consumer on how things pan out.
Until...
a) dividend is cut
b) interest rates / bond yields increase to the point that high yielding stocks are no longer worth the risk.
I just recently bought into BHP, awesome dividend yield and I'm hoping that they can continue to pay progressive dividend for a very long time. It is a bit of a gamble though.
Hi KW - I would be interested to know what triggers you are looking for? Dow Jones 200DMA is currently 17790.70, 50DMA which dropped below 200DMA around mid august is 17500.55. Currently dow is 16,654.72. (Dropped from 17300ish last friday to reach 15600ish at its low point). If DJIA crosses 200dma would you consider that a "volatility" and not a "correction", or would you consider that its volatility earlier if we pass back above 17300 point from where it dropped. Thanks in advance. Im quite happy sitting sideline too at this point, some shares still continuing to drop..
Interested in others thoughts around this too..
As someone mentioned earlier. Oil prices while cheap for the consumer is actually going to cause more problems than it solves. Oil rig count in the US alone is dramatically down yet supply is out stripping demand. OPEC is not controlling the demand and supply like it used to. Companies scrambling to make their businesses as efficient as possible. . Some are bound to start folding. Canada has been high fiving for years with their oil sands. Now they are struggling as the cost to produce oil from those sands is so high. It will b interesting to see when the cracks in Canada start appearing in main stream media. I'm sure there's other countries in this situation too. When big well paying companies start folding we know we are in real trouble.
when you play Russian roulette,you cant see if theres a bullet in the next chamber--When I think of possible scenarios that can affect a company,airline shares are near the top of the list.
Its all about the odds,Coutts--If your going to gamble(once you admit ,thats what your doing),you had better learn the difference between the odds of the market going pear shaped (which,as you saw affected AIR)and you taking your next breath
The problem with div's at the moment is that the market is falling faster than the amount the div will return. And then the price will drop after div date, and the market will still be falling.... loss compounded on top of loss..
There certainly are a lot of nervous twitches on the market today. People are trying to get in on the "recovery" but it actually looks like some players have other ideas and are still selling down.... people only think its a recovery because the heavy selling has turned into a slower more controlled and considered selling... It could turn into a rush to the top, but it could also turn into a hasty emotional rush to the top and over a steep edge.
MEL falling since end of April
CEN falling since February
GNE falling since March
Dont get caught on the downhill ice slope.
Depends on your investment timeframe.
I bought CEN a few weeks back and I'm 13% up with a 2.8% divvy on Monday
I bough MEL 3 days ago and I'm 5% up with a 5.5% divvy next month
I bought GNE a few weeks back and I'm up 6% with a 4.4% divvy in Oct
I figure the market is captive, stable/growing, based on making/selling a necessity of life and with government owning 51% of MEL and GNE the comcom will steer well clear
So I see the glass as half full (hope it doesn't turn out to be half empty and falling)
Excellent timing on the buy-in's, I wish you well.... I dont need to tell you to keep a close eye on the market, and remember that the prices will fall after div day by the amount of the div... hopefully the market will "actually" be in recovery by then and this correction just a scene in the rearview mirror.
Personally Im sidelined till I can tell what is trending and what is just faking it. {Technically still holding Div-payers.. but presently out of Growth's as they... are not)
Looking at the history file the downturn started about 5th-7th of August.. well before the "correction" ... lots of sudden moves to sell-off..hmmmmm. Think Ill run the neural net over the market and see just how many started making alternative positions beginning of August... perhaps do the US as well, might be interesting to see what patterns emerge.
.
Not much of the underlying factors has actually changed in the last week from the china crash. Sentiment maybe? But that can change in a heart beat. The interest rate cut has only delayed and made the problem worse. Was in MEL from IPO, initial plan was to hold on to this year's divies, but figured the herd would do the same. Changed plan and cashed up. Was a good run till now. Will keep an eye out for when it really does become cheap again.
What do you think of coincidences. Especially ones that display "significant clustering within a certain time period... my maths tutor used to say if the same things happen twice its a coincidence, if it happens three times there's something more to it, if it happens four times... that's no coincidence, start looking for the root cause...
AIA August 5-7
AIR August 12
ANZ August 7
ARG August 7
ATM August7
CEN - doesnt follow trend
COA August 14
CNU August 3
DIL August 5 correction till aug10 then back down
EBO July 29 then again August 7
FPH August 7
FBU August 6
FRE August 6
FSF August 7 massive rise then the weekend then trough till 20
GMT August 3
GNE August 3-4-5-6 Multiple days of concentrated sell off
HNZ August 6-7
IFT August 6-7
KMD August 6-7
KPG August 5-6-7
MEL August 4-5-6-7
MET July 22
MFT August 11
MPG August 7
MRP August 3-4-5-6-7
NPX August 7
NZX doesnt follow the trend
OHE August 4-5-6-7
PCT doesnt follow the trend
PEB August 13-14
PFI August 7
POT August 3-4-5-6 decline/recovery
RBD August 7
RYM August 7
SKC August 5-6-7
SKL August 5-6-7
SKT August 6-7-10
SPK August 3
STU August 6-7
SUM August 6-7
TME August 7
TPW August 13 outside the timelines but before the correction
TWR August 19 outside the timelines
VCT August 7
VHP does not follow the trend, recovers starting aug7
WBC August 6-7
WHS August 7 correction to its own peak, does not follow the trend
XRO July 30 then an increase in downward pressure
ZEL August 7 goes flat aug11-12 correction
apparently some people knew the news before others were allowed to...
Dont use Opera browser as it does not have the capability to display Flash application live graph. Use Firefox or the Windows browser
Go to google.com/finance
Top of page right beside the Blue/red/yellow colored Google logo Type into that search box NZE:??? where ??? is the stock code eg NZE:AIA
the : is required
This opens a Flash based graph of the price movements, At the top of the graph is a line displaying 1d 5d 1m YTD 1y 5y time displays
Use the 1m icon to select 1month of data display
Or use the mouse and click on the graph and scroll the mouse wheel manually to adjust the time-frame displayed
Look at/around the August 7 date...
Im presently looking at the US and then the UK markets to see if there are similar patterns
http://infinitas.co/img.lib/00-mkt.jpg
Totally agree. This "correction" has been an absolute disappointment. Complete rubbish. NZX should be embarrassed -- completely inadequate SP drops compared to their international competitors.
I was looking forward to some hefty discounts in the "Spring Sale" but the discounts haven't hit my buy prices AT ALL!
:t_down:
USA mkts finished flat today who knows what lies ahead.Its still risk on for me and happy to be patient for opps. If the mkt takes off sa la vie; i covered my risk and will find entries.
Gold is up, technically because it looks like the bounce off a downward trendline from 1170USD looks to have run out of steam, and fundamentally 'cause Fed has now got less certain about raising interest rates. If market drops away Monday arvo and evening (NZ time) then they are unlikely to this year IMO.
The Euro and Yen have been heading down again these past three days (after climbing quickly all the way through the sharp global equity market downturn that started about a week ago). Both are now due for a lift IMO.
Re equities, I expect there's going to be a drop again to follow this 3 day bounce up - what's uncertain of course is not if, but when and just how dramatic.
Discl: now long again on Eur and Yen against the USD and Aussie. Short again on bluechip stocks, long on precious metals (mainly gold & silver diggers).
Interesting night for oil as well BC.
It was down quite heavily at one stage to regain all its losses and end up a couple of percent.
I would suggest this was more to do with the tropical storm that is off the coast of Florida & the possibility of the hurricane season disrupting supply from the Gulf of Mexico. Overall a good opportunity to short I would suggest, but volatility reigns still.
[QUOTE=Bobcat.;588865]Gold is up, technically /QUOTE]
Technically ???
Good luck with those thoughts..
The ??? is the stocks code. EG AIR
Continuing from the previous page...
NASDAQ:AAPL (Apple) August 11
NASDAQ:BAC (Bank America) August 7 instability August 11-12 fall ***
NASDAQ:GOOGL (Google) rise on August 11
NASDAQ:MSFT (Microsoft) August 11
NASDAQ:BRK.A (Berkshire Hathaway) August 11 ** How about that even Buffetts company was hit
NASDAQ:BRK.B August 11
NASDAQ:XOM (Exxon) July 30
NASDAQ:WFC August 10
NASDAQ:JNJ August 5
NASDAQ:NVSEF August 5
NASDAQ:NVS August 10
NASDAQ:FB (Facebook) not in pattern
NASDAQ:GE 9General Electric) August 7
NASDAQ:CHL August 11
NASDAQ:CHLKF August 11
NASDAQ:AMZN August 6
NASDAQ:PTR (Petro China) not in pattern
NASDAQ:JPM (JP Morgan) August 11
NASDAQ:RHHBY (Roche) August 7
NASDAQ:NSRGY (Nestle) August 5-6-7
NASDAQ:WMT 9Wallmart) August 7
NASDAQ:T (AT%T) August 5-6-7
NASDAQ:PFE (Pfizer) August 5-6
NASDAQ:TOYOF (Toyota) August 4-5
NASDAQ:TF 9Toyota) August 3
NASDAQ:PG (Proctor&Gamble) July 29-30
NASDAQ:VZ (Verizon Communications) August 5-6-7, price rises on August 10-18
NASDAQ:CICHF August 11
NASDAQ:BHP 9BHP Bilton) August 10
NASDAQ:BABA August 11
NASDAQ:AHBIF August 11
NASDAQ:BUD August 11
NASDAQ:V (Visa) August 5-11
NASDAQ:CICHY August 10
NASDAQ DIS (Disney) August 4 big drop from $121 to $110, then to $106 just before black monday ***
...and the list goes on...
Similar "pattern" to the NZ data but slightly different timing
http://infinitas.co/img.lib/1-1.jpg
Continuing...
England/ London Stock Exchange
LON:RDSA August 7
LON:CHTR August 5-6
LON:RDSB August 7
LON:SEPL August 12
LON:HSBA August 7
LON:ULVR August 11
LON:BP August 5
LON:BATS August 6,11
LON:GSK August 7
LON:BLT August 5,6,7,11
LON:VOD August 6
LON:LLOY August 7
LON:AZN August 6
and the list goes on... and on
So it looks so far like NZ, AUS, US, UK have all been hit with the same "managed event"
Havent even looked at the European or Japan/Asian theatres yet.
Lots of questions...
No answers...
Those who "managed this event" are real evil aren't they arc
Sucked the world in and made zillions .....greedy people (not allowed to swear)
Arc, Whats your theory
Thanks for your research arc. Assuming this year is crash year, how does your research compare for other years. Eg non crash year. Traditionally Aug to Oct is crash season anyway isn't it, so would expect a few patterns over this time.
ARC, what am I missing? All I am seeing is a bunch of stock codes with various dates. Dates I assumed when these shares were hammered.
What pattern other than down are you alluding to? You use the word deliberate. Isn't any trade or combined movement in stocks deliberate? Up or down?
Cheers Daytr
I noticed that the professor didn't seem to give any weight to the "gambling instinct" of many Chinese who have only recently been allowed - encouraged? - in to the stock market. A bit unfair to blame the "money men" entirely for this debacle without acknowledging that factor, IMO.
hahaha it does sound off the edge , no I dont think for a second that its a conspiracy or "evil people"
Tax time is different for different parts of the world so it cant be related to that. The closest other event was the Chinese devalue but that was announced on the 12th?.
I have no theory. I found a pattern that I personally do not understand... end of story
I dont understand crashes, why do they happen, what are the triggers, what are the significant things that contribute to it. Its like the whole world woke up on the 7th and said its Hammer-Time.
You financial wizards out there, tell me what would make almost every top100, top500 across multiple stock exchanges undergo a selldown on the same day, or at least within a 3 day period.
Also in your estimation would the ongoing effects of this initial selldown be the cause of black monday, or is it just a coincidence
I have no doubts that there is a fair amount of manipulation out there--but as an article--Is that it? (i was looking for page 2)
There are lots of things that can trigger a sell off when things are in a bubble.
Quite often its property ,but the bubble creation in the first place is probably more relevant--Its certainly no secret that many think the stock market has become overvalued in the US (and China is a no brainer)--I think the scarey part for many was the Chinese governments inability to control the events (at least until now but for how long?) The US has more polished controls to kick the can down the road ,but their options are becoming more and more limited as time goes on.
Something has to give at some stage(this may or may not be it)--but this is not a normal time to be into the sharemarket bigtime IMO----Saw a quote the other day--went something like--''at this phase of the market,the ''buy and hold''strategy is out the window''..
Whether its orchestrated or not is up for debate--but either way red is red.
There's no compulsion on anyone, particularly on the big holders and investors, to panic and sell even when would be "gurus" on Sharetrader say they should be.
Instead they quietly pick off the bargains to be had, nor do they need to explain that to anyone.
Life continues.
I would suggest a multitude of factors. Sentiment obviously plays a part, but so does TA and when certain levels are triggered the TA traders all jump in or out. The DOW for instance has looked like a sell for six months. Goldman Sachs called it as well.
Then you have the algos who again will be triggered purely from TA.
Obviously these stocks are also held in indices as well & a lot of people trade the index, so if its bought or sold the individual shares that make up the index also have to be bought or sold.
Yes indeed life continues, thank goodness. Another week another divy
Skid: Sorry to disappoint you but I think I will just go into quiet investigation mode for a while... raving on at 2 in the morning while tired and cranky is not a good image.. :). If I find anything significant I will let people know.
Major von Tempsky: I think you are correct in that panic was and still is the prime motivator. If you spook the herd enough then stampede is a certainty.
Winner69: You asked if I had a theory and I dont have one... so I just thought of one now .. This has all happened before: it WILL happen again.
In relation to that, now that Im aware of the "pattern". I will spend some time searching for any others. I think there is a need for an active retrospective-indicator (it has to happen before it can be detected) that raises a BIG red flag within a few hours of this sort of thing happening again. If one knows one is prepared. This last event had a 2 week head start, before black monday, on us... I will start coding something to feed to the neural net that looks for things similar to this last event-pattern.
Thought I'd just leave this here - seems pertinent. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, foresight is even better!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ade-34-million
He played the market both ways and won--I remember Bob Dyans lyrics--"'I cant help it if Im lucky''
Arc--Im in a different time zone(Thailand atm) if my posts seem at a crazy hour----Im here because I decided to preserve profits on 2 different stocks----Best of luck on your research
Alot would say its no fun being cautious,but I can testify that aint true---meanwhile we all hope it doesnt completely come unstuck as that would be good for not many,especially if banks start to go.
When you have been involved with shares for a while ,it can be very hard to let go..
Longhaul: Thats interesting, I am still relatively new to this game. I started last year with just divy stocks and then had a flutter on growth's. I will have to look up the mechanism of "shorting" as I have not attempted that before. It does sound risky... but knowing what we know now we might be forewarned about "next time".
Skid: Thanks for the reply. Did you have to actually fly there to "preserve the profit"?. Makes my walking from the lounge to the computer room seem very dull by comparison, I am mostly cashed up, just 2 divy payers left which i will ride out while waiting for the bottom of this alice in wonderland market. The hard part is determining the bottom from the hysterical bounce(s). Seems to be a version of cat and mouse, or cat and bear trap...
Today will be interesting, Dow is down S&P is up
Futures are looking ugly for tonight in the US (currently down 200 points on the Dow, 26 points on the S&P).
Accordingly, the EUR and JPY once again are strengthening against the USD, AUD, and especially the CAD (Brent Oil is now back under $50/b).
Hope you chaps took the opportunity Friday to sell out what you hadn't earlier.
Precious metals may lift tonight but not much else IMO.
BC
This week could be buying opportunity time.
Question for those of you who buy US equities, are any of you buying or considering US equities with kiwi down in the 64 range? It is a double risk in many ways now but some of the stock valuations are starting to look attractive.
But the question is
Is buying in this market just supplying slid gold teeth for the Bear, or is it paying the dentist to pull them?.
"Blacker Monday Looms" ...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ech-china-fold
it always does ... and some day all the doomsday prophets will be right ... until they are wrong again. My portfolio didn't tank a lot last Monday (3% down at the worst point) ... and most of the dip came back by now anyway. Instead of worrying from crisis to crisis it might be a better strategy to maintain a well diversified portfolio based on companies providing essential (or desirable) services and products with a track record of solid earnings.
And looking into the "China crisis": The Shanghai Index is still 42% up compared to just 12 months ago, and people are worrying whether the Chinese economy is really growing by 7%, or maybe just by 6% or shock horror maybe just by 5%. If we take just a wee step back, than all these worries look a bit silly, don't they?
Sure - markets are currently volatile ... but there is an easy remedy against that: As long as you own solid stocks which you purchased at a reasonable price - don't worry about the SP jumping around - and definitely don't sell if the SP is cheap.
Maybe we should talk instead about an actually quite good earning season ... actually my retirement stock(s) did quite nicely, and I am as well reasonably confident about a number of manufacturers and service providers who all should benefit from the lower NZD.
Life is good ... and while this Monday is quite grey (weather wise) I am sure the sun will shine again ... and this prediction is likely to be much more reliable than the prediction of the next dooms day scenario.
Brent Oil has just now broken through $49/barrel, after breaching $50/b just 5 hours ago. It will probably bounce around a bit from here until the US Equity markets open tonight but this together with Futures sitting at -183 (Dow) and -23 (S&P500) is not a good sign (well, it's a good sign for Bears who are now short but not good for the bulls amongst us).
Copper and other commodities are also falling, and the Euro (EUR) and Yen (JPY) are rising...which you might've noticed happened right through to the night of the 25th (last Tuesday). Again all signs that US Equity markets will open much softer tonight.
The question is not will Equity markets fall again (probably this arvo and tonight) but to what extent and for how long.
Chartists like their hammers, crosses, EMA's, etc. Others prefer to be swayed more by company fundamentals; and they are both useful...but right now I'm finding the best indicators for Equity market direction are Index futures and the currency markets, with the EUR and JPY seemingly the safe haven of choice for the big players.
As an economist I have to markedly differ from the somewhat ignorant rhubarb above, obviously written by people who are neither economists nor historians! I'll keep it short and simple.
(a) you can only really analyse economic history since 1945 since it is only since then that Keynesianism has held sway and governments (developed countries, most of them) and central bankers have understood what is going on. Friedmanism is the more recent approach used to conquer inflation and use interest rates and restrict aggregate demand.
(b) what's happening in stockmarkets is only ONE of the factors that Central Banks analyse before moving. Other factors such as inflation, economic growth, the balance of payments on current account, the state of employment, the various factor inputs known as "land" and the effect of current technological change.
"Bull" needs to go back to school.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/china...31-gjbled.html
Interesting read...
Nikkei is currently down about 2%, with the Heng Seng down about 1%.
I know it depends more on today's and tonight's full sessions of trading, but...it does look like we will have another correction to the downside tonight on Wall Street. It would not have been foolish of those holding nzx or asx stocks prone to a sell off to have sold out today -- it's prudent risk mgmt.
Discl: apart from some precious metal stocks and a few small caps, I'm about 70% cashed up...and waiting.
sorry Major--You may be an economist but you have provided precious little facts to back up your statemnts
Its interesting that those labeled ''worriers'' actually have very little reason to worry as they sit on the sidelines and watch this drama unfold with others investments.
Tomorrow will come--but many may be somewhat poorer due to complacency.
For the record--I didnt COME to Thailand to preserve my profits--I came to Southeast Asia compliments of the profit I preserved---That ''play money''--ie.paper profits/losses translates into real life experiences----for those that have the sense to listen to real facts ,rather than feel good cliches ,and end up with some actual money to do things-im available for travel tips...
Dont mistake caution for negativity---Think Ill go out for a coffee and to rent a motorbike for my last 2 week tour up north. before heading back to NZ for the spring..(maybe a camper van next?)
OK, well I happen to have a University degree in Economics and have learned enough about the 'discipline' to know that if you line up a dozen economists in a row they will all (whether deliberate or not) point in many, many different directions.
In itself, economics is usually found wanting..needing another discipline or two (finance, political science, a social science such anthropology, psychology or philosophy, even mathematics) to find its feet on Planet Earth well enough to offer a balanced worldview.
That's just my opinion.
Just for you Bobcat :)
Economists are people who are too smart for their own good and not smart enough for anyone else's. - See more at: http://www.equities.com/editors-desk....8gijYHhZ.dpuf
I doubt whether your average retail investor running a profit or a paper loss(Big or Small) would worry about the current trend, what will the trend be in 5 years time? Most would be happy to just keep collecting dividends unless they need their money right now, I wouldn't be foolish enough to realise my big paper losses at this time( I've learnt my lesson big time doing that in the past)
We have almost the opposite viewpoint. Firstly, I wouldn't let my paper losses get big at all as I want to preserve capital. I sell my losers because I don't think I'm smarter than the market. History tells us that the retail investors exit the markets at the worst possible time. I am very concerned that we are moving into a bear market. I don't want to endure the financial and emotional capital loss of a 2 year bear market.
I'm not calling a bear yet, but I'm watching very carefully.
Cloggs: Thanks, good find, the writer certainly takes the shotgun approach to coverage, no depth but plenty of splatter.
From that article .. "On Wednesday August 19th, the minutes from the Fed’s latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting held at the end of July were due out."
It fits within the timeframe
Meeting end of July
Selldown appears to have started August 4-5-6-7?
Big selldowns August 11
Chinese devalue their currency August 12 (how strange)
Results of the July meeting announcement due for release August 19
Market-correction Escalates Friday 21, (it already existed but mom and pop were not aware)
Throw into the mix the slow down on gold mining 2 years ago, the drop in metals/iron/minerals, the volatile price of oil.. and the rest of the bucket list.
Skid: A motorbike tour, sounds good. I read an article a month or so ago on bike trails and organized tours through Asia, there was some guy here in NZ that organises the tour. I must do that one day soon... Would also love to do the Across America tour.
Denis: 2 year Bear, 2 year recovery 2 more years to get back to the present stock prices... IF they get back to these prices. The last actual bear was 2007-2008, 2011 was only a correction. 2008 --- 2015 7 long years. And companies do stop paying dividends when the price reaches some "psychologically disturbing level" for the directors. I expect most will stop if we see 30%+ drop in the next couple of months
http://infinitas.co/img.lib/aia-history.jpg
I am concerned that both AIR and AIA have both FAILED TO LAUNCH, and yet people think this is some sort of recovery??.
Someone who claims to be an economist & yet didn't know who Ayn Rand was or her influence on Greenspan, let alone that it wasn't Greenspan that introduced quantitative easing... I'm not an economist, but I used to edit bank economist's publications for a bit of a reality check, before they sent it out to clients. Some are much better than others naturally & I found the ones that had some real world experience in markets were typically far more relevant than the ones who wrote from their book lined office. It can depend of course on how macro the subject is.
Which eventually lead to the Asian crises(a long story,with many similarities to now in terms of the powerful money men making speculative and risky investments (in Asia)and causing bubbles because they were given the power to do so(by the US gov as Clinton was up to his neck in the Monica Lewenski scandal.)--Greenspan was at the helm--A long storey that had a big influence on how China drastically changed its economic policies.
just like the merchant bank bailouts in the last crises(gotta do something with that dosh)
Another big night for oil, up 7-8% overnight!
Oil has now rallied 27% in 3 days, the biggest rally since the 1st gulf war!
Perhaps another Bush is going to take the Whitehouse....
Saudis say they are willing to talk to producers. I'm not sure what that means exactly, but the market read it as positive.
Personally I think this is an opportunity to short oil again, however looking at the chart $60 Brent can't be ruled out, but if we get there I will; be loading up short. Put in a small short posi this morning.
Interestingly even though oil markets have surged, equity markets were still down.
So much angst, so much analysis on this thread. Unlike the many happy investors in the Minimoke RNG Stock Picker which is proving to be not only very profitable but also bullet proof. Just checked out my position on the NZ Stock Picking competition and I'm up more than 2% from the middle of August position. Cant complain about that.
Nice one Mini, but there has been no angst if you have been shorting the DOW & energy stocks since early this year and made a crapola load! ;-)
NZX is in the main a different kettle of fish and is somewhat insulated from some of the macro stuff happening overseas, unless you are talking about commodity based investments. The downturn there will filter through to other NZ companies as the spending and growth in the economy contracts. As the government seems hell bent on building roads & houses, construction and civil companies I would have thought re pretty good place to be, although Fletchers have proven you can even stuff up when given a gift horse.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-s...ata-1441094358
Here comes another drop by the looks - glad I'm all cashed up since last Monday.
Yep, DOW futures well down … again. Also glad to be out of large/mid caps.
glad to have some cash on the sidelines last sell-off made a nice 35% profit on the bounce of ELM.asx ....rest of the portfolio focused round Gold mostly producers selling in AUD....fat margins currently .... not stressed at all
Saw NCM took another SP hit today, doesn't seem to be getting the same traction as some of the other goldies JB. Any reason for that you know of? Need to update my research.
With respect, you're not an 'average' investor Couta, as you bravely put, and I suggest 'most' in your situation would not agree to having low stress, but perhaps have made friends with Triazolam or some such alternative to assist a good night sleep. Jmo, good luck with your optimism.
Its like the ''faulty Towers'' of the economic world---They write tv scrips on how characters let a small thing amplify into a big ,in these cases hilarious plots--only this is real life ,and of course not hilarious--but as you say ,Coutts case could prevent this sort of thing from happening to others a hundred fold--but it is all to common(Ive done it myself on a much smaller scale(but learned my lesson)--I remember clearly Moosies ''long walk'' where he finally accepted his loss with DIL and got on with life.
IMO paper losses doers not make them fictional--We are all at a point in time with everything--where we go from that point is up to us.
It would be nice if ''time healed all wounds '' but it is not always the case
It has been somewhat of an illusion these past years-with all that easy money floating around from the US--and China leading the way with its insatiable appetite for any fodder required for its growth.
But both are changing now and its looking like a different game altogether out there--hopefully in the end it will at least be real.
Don't forget I took a 100k loss in CNU while others held, I sold at $2.10 and then it went down to $1.30 ish, now what lesson did I learn there, simply if I had just held my shares for another 18months my 100k loss would have been a 30k profit as I could have sold when it got back to $3.16 ish. So while many may not agree with my approach there are many others that do, lets see how many of my stocks are still running paper losses in a few years time? that will be the proof of the pudding IMO.
DOW, Nasdaq and S&P down re 3% ,vol not huge.
Yep Couta1, if you are in good sound stocks with small or no debt and good cashflow etc, its not necessarily a bad thing to hold for the long term. But that does depend on how well valued they were at the time, i.e. PE etc. Not everyone is a trader in fact most people aren't and over time you generally make money by holding in the long term. There is nothing wrong with being a trader either and you can't argue that one is right and one is wrong as they are generally over much different time frames.
Oil smashed back down again around 7% eroding all yesterday's gains.
Equities smashed, everyone talking about China. I still think this is a massive mis-read or diversion.
Easy, blame China rather than something closer to home.
Speaking of close to home. The dairy auction overnight had another double digit bounce.
However Fonterra held back more product and only released 50% what they were a year ago.
This is a dangerous game. What happens to all the stock they are building up? They can't do that forever.
Memories of the butter mountain of the 1970s comes to mind.
Fasten your seatbelts everyone...
(at least it was good to see milk price rebounding, but overseas markets not so good)
I think the lesson from the CNU experience was that you lost control of the trade. As soon as the much anticipated pricing changes were announced, you should have sold. The events that unfolded with CNU meant that there was much uncertainly over the stock. Most expected that a capital raise would be required. If that had happened, the outcome would have been quite different.
Bottom line is that circumstances change with stocks and you need to act accordingly. If you can't interpret the events yourself, you should seek out a full service broker.
Exactly! Couta, my memory may be hazy so correct me if I am wrong, but I recall you were in CNU as a trade simply to get the dividend. The fact that you held all the way down to $1.3 and lost 100k on a trade where presumably you were hoping to make a few thousand means you completely lost control of that one. The fact that it rebounded after you sold is irrelevant and my concern is that as a result you have appear to have convinced yourself of an entirely different lesson learnt.....one that is quite dangerous.
Not that I know anything but NCM keeps coming up as a sell in the "Bulls" 18 Share Tips. Haven't noticed if it is different firms though.
http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/...gust-2015.html
It has come up as a sell more than once.
Twotic i sold at $2.10 not $1.30 anyway the principle still stands that those holding long would have lost nothing.(I'm not going to rehash the whole sorry saga step by step again) PS-Remember also that the National Govt had strongly indicated that they would overide the ComCom if they cut the Copper price giving many of us reason to hold onto the stock that bit longer.
Well that might get rid of 5% of it.
NZ is by far the biggest exporter of dairy in the world.
That's one of our issues, our domestic market is tiny in comparison.
And its not the farmers that are keeping the price of dairy products in NZ its the supermarkets.
QUOTE=nextbigthing;589432]Release it onto the NZ domestic market so we can actually enjoy some 'fruits' of the labour, ie cheap dairy for NZ.[/QUOTE]
OK, but the point still stands, you clearly lost control of your trade and as Denis said, surely that should be the lesson you take out of that one.
You may not be stressed about it all but reading your posts seriously stresses me out, and its not even my money that's being lost :(
I hope you are not getting caught up in the hype of BS internet forums and can see that there are some pretty seasoned investors that are trying to give you some quality advice.
Firstly if you are a seasoned investor...you should know better than give advice.
Secondly, making pronouncements on other investors strategies, results and losses is presumptuous since "you" are not privy to all the details that go into that investors decision making.
Thirdly, yes you are right, there is an awful lot of BS on internet forums. This thread has recently acquired a portion of it.
Lastly, hindsight is a great clarifier...its just unfortunate we cannot arrange some advance notice.
1) I'm not advising him to buy or sell anything. But this forum is about sharing thoughts, opinions etc etc. You've just shared yours and so have I - no harm in either!
2) I never said I was a seasoned investor, I suggested that there are others out there who are and if you read some of the posts there is some pretty sound advice.
3) Couta came on this very forum to ask for advice on his CNU predicament. He was very clear about the details of the situation he was in. I am not being presumptuous at all. So perhaps go back and read his posts and get your facts right!
4) You are right, hindsight is a wonderful thing. Can't get it in advance unfortunately, but it doesn't stop us learning from the past :)
Great stuff, too right re investors - many say when to buy but they don't necc say when to sell on forums!
Lastly, hindsight is a great clarifier...its just unfortunate we cannot arrange some advance notice - well put
Hey at the end of the day I'm the first to admit to being my own worst enemy a lot of the time and in my early time on here listened to too much hype and BS also which cost me a lot, I've sorted the latter mainly but are still working on the former. Looks like a black Wednesday weather wise and market wise.