How badly burned are investors?
Let's just say they are Wel-don.
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How badly burned are investors?
Let's just say they are Wel-don.
Ok well, main figure to look at is:
DEC 2013 they had 5300 customers, each theoretically paying $20p/m thus $106,000 p/m revenue.
MAR 2014 they had 8003 customers - thats 51% growth (as Moose mentioned)... thus $160,060 p/m revenue.
Of course very very rough numbers above, but 51% in a quarter, that's pretty good growth.
Perhaps there could be justification in buying into the company before the 11 June financial result. On the other-hand they could show a result similar to that of xero, where they're burning cash!
Thoughts/comments?
$1.45 and down 8% + today , whatsup? is there a C R in the wind only .25 above listing price. hmmmmmmm !
The ideal amount to hold on this stock is basically 5-10k worth, anything more (as Harvey mentions) affects the share price too greatly.
Saw this mornings report..Am no accountant but think revenue only enuf to pay the Directors fees..and morning tea...
What pain?
They have Mark Waldon, the wunderkid who turned NZX into one huge profit generating machine, as Chairman.
He has only started with GeoOP.
But again, maybe not - NZX is a monoploy and he sure plucked the feathers off that golden goose to feather his own nest.
:D
6.34 compared to the list price of $19.95:
http://geoop.com/pricing/
No wonder they want to change their pricing scheme and get rid of the grandfathered customers.
I also makes you wonder if they have been offering discounts to all their new customers as the growth in customers should all be reflected at $20pm, which clearly it isn't!
The true price per customer is the average number of customers of the last 12 months, which is 4631 if you chart and average the rate of increase over the 4 reported customer numbers. This comes out at $10.97mrpu, including grandfathered customers. This is a significant increase on the previous years $7mrpu.
Reported dates in bold.
Mar-13 2300 Apr-13 2666.66 May-13 3033.32 Jun-13 3399.98 Jul-13 3766.64 Aug-13 4133.3 Sep-13 4500 Oct-13 4766.66 Nov-13 5033.32 Dec-13 5300 Jan-14 6202 Feb-14 7104 Mar-14 8006 Average 4631.683
I think the way MOosie did it above is right.
He took the current annualised income (which I am sure they calculated by multiplying current customers by the rate each customer is being charged) and divided that by the current number of customers (then month-ified it). This would be more accurate that taking the annual income and then trying to divide it by some average number of customers.
Ahh right, sweet. That's what ARR means then. My mistake!
SaaS companies have a whole different set of acronyms and metrics which need to be understood. There are some good posts if you goolge how to value a saas company. This is a good one from one of the top/biggests tech VC's: http://a16z.com/2014/05/13/understan...uation-primer/
I love the "Performance Highlights" table in the results at http://geoop.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/195152.pdf where they have a column for the % Change over the year. They show the % Change for revenue, paying customers and ARR, but leave it blank for the net loss. Do they think if they leave it out we wont calculate it for ourselves? Just in case you can't be bothered to do the calc, there was a 1,370% increase in the net loss :(
Up from $0.3m FY13? A laymans view but they could easy run through that much faster.
There are all sorts of metrics and measurements you could apply but in my uneducated view last year they spent $3.51 to make a dollar in revenue, this year they spent $10.40 to make a dollar revenue. These services really do appear to be fantastic value for their clients. Like others here I’m surprised they are discounting so heavily against the headline retail product price. You have to ask how price sensitive the market is and where the sales growth would be without this incentive.
My most abiding impression is they went to market very early for one reason or another.
Forgive me if my etiquette if my tone isn’t quite in keeping with the forum, I’m usually more the lurking type.
Shares trading at a 40% premium to IPO price - what makes you think they went to market too early? If the shares were $1.10 they'd represent a good return. Retail investors are the only ones who went to market too early. The cornerstones are surely happy holders playing a risky, long-term, high growth investment on a company that they valued at around $27m ($1.00) at this stage. How long would you have waited to take it to market? They only played on the positive tech sentiment at the time.
Across the board, tech stocks are getting crushed. Someone on the forums suggested the high NZD today and foreign traders exiting the positions possibly?
My view is that it is never be too early but there are differing levels of risk to be priced at different stages of a business.
I’m very hopefully they can get enough consumers to buy their product/service thing that they reach that sort of self-sustaining critical mass. However hope is too lower level of confidence for me to invest. This is no criticism of the business itself at all, you can be sure they are trying very hard to close in on that critical point where they get that exponential growth before they burn through the cash. As much as everything can be in place it appears to be so, if the product/service thing they are selling is intrinsically appealing enough to potential clients I’m sure everything else (staffing, costs etc.) will be managed at a level consistent with other similar businesses.
I’ll refrain from imply anything from the current share price given the frequency and volume of trades are so low.
Good post IMHO...I think at 106. the problem will be to keep the price of the share at a level which does not let the IPO mob panic.This market is very fragile as we saw with Xero.Recently it has looked to me that when it was weak a buyer mysteriously appeared and pushed them up a little.That may or may not be the case but next week or so will be very telling...cheers
I must say, if it gets below $1 ($25m market cap), it will be on my radar and I will start looking at it for a good time to enter (after a bit more DD).
They appear to be a good product but the issue is the amount of competition they have, even among other Xero add-ins.
Yes - their cost structure is a concern as is the fact hardly any customers appear to be paying the full price. But they should grow into their costs, especially if they start charging full rates to all customers.
Crowded space yes but I think blue collar are increasing taking to this type of technology. Much better to use your smart phone as you go (or better get your staff to) than waste your weekend doing the paperwork when you could be fishing. The potential here is huge despite the crowded market.
Vend sounds interesting but already valued at over $100m so will probably be valued at $500m by the time it makes it to market.
Timely is another interesting one, having just secured funding form Wiggs Punakaiki fund.
If you overlay the shareprice chart from February to now, SLI, PEB, GEO, and XRO (but more volatile) all have tracked steadily down, loosing almost 50% of their values. There could well be others, but those are the only ones I really look at in the sector.
Does the fact that they all show similarities prove that its sector sentiment that's driving the SP down, and that in actual fact the companies themselves aren't really doing anything wrong?
And if Wynyards hasn't fallen as far as these other companies, does that indicate that they are doing a better job than these others?
Lastly..................... is there a bottom in sight anyone care to make predictions when would be a good in / top up time for some of these stocks?
(p.s. I have posted the same in the SLI thread, holding PEB and SLI from those mentioned)
Behind the paywall: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/geoops-...ns-md-p-158733
Summary :
From GEO (very XRO'esque): We dont care about the shareprice. We have all the money we need and are executing to plan. Points to global decline in SaaS companies.
From Lance: Points out their average revenue is $6 compared to the $20 listed on the website.
Refers to print edition for comments from Ben Kepes and more from Lance Wiggs.
Anyone old school and get the print edition and can summarize the print only article.
Well I've just now picked up my first parcel at 80c. This stock does tend to have upward spurts after a while of declining a bit. My target is to trade this up to $1 for a 25% gain. Any positive announcement should lift it to that price without much trouble.
Anyway, that's my theory and I'm sticking to it.
Like I say, it's my first small parcel of GEO shares, of which 4500 of my bid of 5000 got hit. I stick out just a few fingers when catching knives - not my whole hand.
ANZ Securities must've had a seller for 4000 that they crossed off market.
If it drops further before bouncing, I plan to get a 2nd parcel in the 70's somewhere to increase my holding.
If it bounces from here then all good - I'll make a small profit and then move on.
I've been tracking this since it broke $1, sliding down an on-market bid to keep it at 10% under market price, anticipating a final dump before a bounce..which may have happened this morning. Buying interest is now building at 81/82c - let's see if she holds.
This strategy doesn't always work of course - I did the same last week with TIL, with a bid at 10% under market price, which got hit at 51c. It's now trading at 48c and I'm still waiting for it to bounce. I win on some and lose/wait on some.
To be fair;
Last sale 0.84
Therefore in Bobcats case just for today,
0.04 x 4500 = $180
$180 - $60 brokerage to buy and sell = $120. One third off for tax, cancelled out by claiming against power and computer depreciation.
So by the end of the day already technically $120 up.
Better than a kick in the pants while trying to shoe a Moose...
Good volume today - 55k which is the highest we've had for 10 days. Always a good sign since it often accompanies a momentum pivot & reversal.
Anybody else want to risk a few fingers from GEO's falling knives? There's now more on offer at 80c.
GEO's sp when it turns tends to lift fast, a lot more than I would say Serko ever will...such is the nature of its business. It's a better trading stock IMO...but then take that advice with a pinch of salt - I'm now a bit biased because I'm holding.
BC
GEO: $600K sales MCap $15M
PEB: $800K sales MCap $250M
lol
According to those rough calcs PEB is 17 times better than GEO.
http://techcrunch.com/2014/07/10/tec...-more-than-6b/
I think your second to last line has hit the nail on the head. What they are offering is simply a test which they now need to convince doctors / health boards / insurance companies to pay for. This will take years.
My view on charting is that the share price is trying to beat the ten day moving average down to 50 cents.My page doesn't go lower than that.As I mentioned before,with these stocks that only a few participated in the IPO,there are no interested buyers other than the original subscribers.They seem to be net sellers now...
There was no IPO, just a pre-listing capital raise and a compliance listing so they didn't do the rounds of the brokers like you would with an IPO. It also means the shares were only sold to sophisticated shareholders though at the time, they probably would have jumped onto any SaaS bandwagon.
I think this company is under-researched but having said that, a quick look at revenue per customer is all you need to do to know all isn't well.
Closed at 72c but it is still at such small volume it isn't possible to imply anything meaningful.
Nor do I think you can fairly value this on metrics, this company is still a pilot project. If the product/service thing they are selling is intrinsically appealing enough to potential clients I’m sure the growth will come. It's that last bit that has given me most pause for thought. Does this thing have enough obvious intrinsic value that they could part a 50ish year old working class guy from a monthly fee for a smartphone app? Is this something a lot of people are likely to want to go out and purchase at the advertised price point?
The executives have plenty of prestige and the obligatory accompanying corporate cheerleading. However strategy options will be very constrained if they run out of money.
I think it is appealing but it does have lots of compitition. It is meant to be a time/money saver so I wonder if they will ever get the price they want/need.
When do the majority of IPO shares come off Escrow? (assuming there are some)?
2015 Oct?...
Up 21% in two days, from 70c to 85c..in a falling equity market.
When this stock pivots it sure does rocket. Check its graph.
Yes but every dog has its day. GEO normally rises like this for at least a week.
http://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/direc...x?sc=asl&eg=au
In hindsight, I should've done what I posted I'd do, and averaged down in the low 70's. Missed it. All I have now is what I bought at 80c. That will have to do.
Riding a wave in a downturn is always a bit cagey but now that this pup has turned, I'm confident it will bounce up for a few more days yet. Watching to see how tired it gets in its approach to $1 (which is still my target). Surf's up on this one as well as TTK. XRO and WYN could be next.
Watching, learning, and still trying to get my timing right. It's a bit like marriage I suppose -- requiring a heart for continuous improvement (ITILv3), trying to remain sufficiently humble not to think I have it all worked out (which would be presumptuous)...first Pride then the crash.
Meanwhile, I'm enjoying the small pleasures of picking pivots and trading momentum...with the odd stop loss thrown in for good measure.
Onward and upward. $1 here we come (next week?)
BC
$8k and 5 trades, up 13%+.
Well, it probably comes down to Waffles! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGstHASo1t4
I wonder what 8% number is in the US....Sounds a bit like a fishing boat going to the Falklands cos someone said they caught a few cod the other day.....IMHO....
I wouldn't like to be a large holder wanting to get out with this market scenario..IMHO...
That was the most useless shareholder presentation I have seen in my life, and I've been around awhile! How could they even call that a forecast? No mention of average user revenue rates, churn etc. Unbelievable!
Have you got a link to the slides? i'm curious to see how bad it was.
Woeful would be doing it justice. Abismal would be closer to true reflection and a complete an utter failure would best describe performance.
This is a sinking ship with annualised recurring revenue having moved from 610k in March to 867k in Sept. Ave sale price approx $6.50 so a failure from management to increase prices.
Total cash remaining of NZD$5m at 29 Sep 14 with net cash spend in last 6 months of 2.6m. Capital raising will be inevitable for this business in the coming 12 months.
Annualized revenue of $867k and 13370 users = $65 per user per year which is only $5.40 per user.
Atleast their list pricing is now realistic with actual pricing. Will make it easier to value given you can now completely ignore the $20 fiction.
On the up side, revenue growth is 610k to 867k which if they can keep up, is over 100% revenue (MRR) growth for the year. Even then, that only puts MRR at less than 25% of cash burn. They need to hit the US hard and they cant rely on Xero (pathetic growth in the US to date) to achieve that so need to get Intuit and Salesforce integration.
I wonder how their tech stacks up against the opposition (Eg. Xero is generally seen as even or better than all others) and if it is better, can they get this message across to customers?
Depending on the ARR they might have to tap the markets less. I think the latest growth rate was slightly disappointing and this may put pressure on another raise earlier than expected. Again this depends on how fast they can gain and retain customers. If they follow the Vend/XRO model then I expect them to run a loss for years to come as long as growth is good. This means they are regularly going to be raising cash and have planned for it.
I think the chaps at Vend a lot smarter than these companies.
Although they are loosing money, their revenue is heading towards $10 mill a year.
I think if they wait before listing and get the loses under control without the glare of the market, by the time they do decide to list, it will be a more spectacular IPO with proven fundamentals behind them.
GEO looks like a company that popped the cork on a bottle of champagne the day they IPO'ed and have been hungover ever since.
But Mark Weldon! And SaaS! And Churn! Losing money is good!
Said so from the beginning and it is all coming to pass - Mark Weldon is as useless as ten tits on a bull.
He was able to milk the NZX dry as it was a monopoly but his track record at managing the NZX is a joke - just have to look at the revolving door parade of executives. Anyone met an ex NZX executive with a good thing to say about him, the NZX board and his super sized ego?
No wonder GeoP is in the mess it is in now.
Consider investing when this company sees the light and sack Mark Weldon - he is the problem imo. Sp then will be about 3 cents imo. Please hang on in there, loser Weldon, until the sp reaches 3 cents.
Anyone follow @benkepes ?
A certain exCEO was overheard talking loudly in the koru lounge about capital raising plans, before flying business class. That's not going to help cash burn!
Wow, $1M in AR. Considering VML did this in one contract and PAY has over $1.6M in HY this makes the revenue vs cashburn rate HORRENDOUS.
Wonder how much Weldon will be stumping up in the next CR?