thl forecast net loss between 0.5m and 1m 6 month to Dec 2012.
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thl forecast net loss between 0.5m and 1m 6 month to Dec 2012.
that is half year ,share prices always priced in future pe isn't it?
It is half year, and the poor half at that, most of the earnings come December through March.
the main thing i am worry is not about the half year loss,because it is forecast already.., it is the foreward statement after the release of the half year report..,.that is the one i have to watch for..
Good luck with this one, gc, but I still reckon the business model is flawed. A capital intensive business with too much money tied up in campervans which only earn good money for a portion of the year but depreciate all year round! We know how quickly that happens with new cars and I don't see vans as very much different.
The cut-price outfits such as Juicy have a better model with second-hand, heavily depreciated vehicles and light overheads. Just IMO but I'd treat THL the same way as an airline. Not an investment, but possibly a short term trade at the right time.
thanks..i am not a long term investor anyway., i am more a short of medium term., just flip it off when time comes
i remember a few years back..when i pick RBD.when it was around 50cents., i came out alright.., i just felt THL..is a bit similar., high dividend with low points., it is on the brink of turning around.., even in a no growth enviroment.., it is more than a cutting cost., improve profitability story..
i might not get it right all the time or try to convince everyone.., that is why i like open discussion.., try to get more ideas to improve my self
anyone knows who are the top 10 shareholder in THL
...gc...I love your optimism...take heed what CJ posted...in fact take heed of all posts...(ignore mine)....as i have stated before I 1st bought into "the helicopter line' a few years back ..at 40 cents...sold a few around $5 me thinks....I bought today 874 at 65 cents...why ?....just a hunch/gut feeling more likley ....just remember the SM aint black and white ...if it was ..every man and his dog would be in there...cheers.
yes i do looked the annual report.., can't find it.., or maybe i missed it..
See p36 of the 2012 AR.
At that date, substantial security holders, ie those with 5% or more, were:
Sterling Grace Capital Mgt 19.1%
Utilico Investments 8.9%
ACC 7.8%
Tower Asset Mgt 7.4%
Note that the top 20 shareholders are registered holders, not necessarily beneficial holders.
Cheers
thanks macduffy
oh share price shot up by no reason..what a volatile stock
i already accumulating more than two hundread thousands of it's shares.., start accumulating from 53cents.., hope it will come up like a rbd story,know it is volatile.., but stick my guts with it
...Im impressed...youve obviously got balls....hope you have the same journey I did....go well...troy
nothing exciting for the market at the moment....a bit boring..
oh..lots of buying order comming in.., a bit unusual volumes
NZX is very quiet at the moment..
someone is accumulating THL..trade volume is up
I wouldn't read too much into early January trading. Activity is always low with a lot of brokers and fund managers away in Hawaii - or wherever it is they go for summer holidays. Equally though, it can be a time to buy in modest volumes when attention is diverted from the market and stale sell orders sit on brokers' books.
As for THL, I wouldn't know.
yes..it is very pathy trading.., but if you watch carefully.might have some lucks too., when THL last week at 66c.., will be nice to pick up some..over all not much volumes.
is getting a bit more trades recently
perversely yes belg
maybe the 'reduced' spend is no longer staying at the Langham but getting a bit rough and travelling in campervans and going to Waitomo and all those exciting places
you never know ... wait for the result ..... just that there does to be a -ver correlation between visitor numbers and THL profits but never been interested enough to find out
bring back pickup i say ... dennis wasn't that bad afterall
fingers cross hope thl goes well..after the merger.
by my reckoning thl make a penny or two from every tourist to nz ..... not enough pennies to cover the kea integration costs i gather ,,,,,,,, so losses are incurred in nz
just as well they made a few million in the usa ........ otherwise this announceent would have another typical thl announcement .... full of bad news and all the excuses from across the world
not feeling good.,only good thing is still paying a dividend
which should hold up share prices
i was suprise,that it did not go down to 60c.., it hold up tall at 66
any further comment on the half year result?
still going down..,what is the stop point.?
You got your lifestyle block yet golden
not yet..you got any good ones
Lifestyle block...mmmmm.....is the average stay/suffering period still about 2 years......just thinking....
I think that the pain-point for a lifestyle block is around two years, but that's for the general population. Any investor in THL is demonstrably made of sterner stuff than that!
I'm involved with this business. On 2012 figures I rate a share price of 40-45 cents a reasonable valuation on fundamentals. High debt, Price to book is showing a discount but share price is still overvalued by up to 30%. To me acquisitions have still not added to their margins or added value to the business. They've had a long hot summer and have been busy on the ground so I wouldn't be surprised if the annual paints a better picture. They have a small chance of making some gains when they sell out of their current chch premises. they should use that opportunity to downsize their fleet and numbers of personnel.
A very hard sell with their backs to the wall.
Just an opinion but slightly more educated than my other posts.
what is going on..., unusual trading volume happening on THL..
I certainly hope that isn't the case!
This would be one of the few shares trading at a discount to book that I've found but the main problem with this is in my view is book=assets where in this case the assets ARE the main cause of such low profit margins. Its hard to sell off campervans and its a competitive market (hence the merger in the first place) The sharemarket is a funny animal and there's a lot of people out there that will be willing to pick this stock up at its current price. Just my opinion but on current fundamentals i'd be waiting another report of two.
as said wayyyyee back on this thread they shouldnt have changed strategy to campers only , chinese dont drive campers they liked to be drived on tours , bus tours to attractions etc poor old thl stuffed up they had it right and blew it.
But guess in face off gfc only the bravest had the balls to stand tall
i smell some takeover taste on THL in my nose at present..
asset rich.could bring another bids ..can't find anything cheaper at present for big guys
Asset rich?
Do you mean all those rapidly depreciating vehicles which produced a Net Loss after tax of $0.5m in the last half year? I reckon the market is more interested in the company's profit prospects than its NTA!
I need some encouragement to stay in at this point... lets hear ...
What are your thoughts on;
Weakening NZ dollar (good for tourism numbers)
Baby boomer retirees (wanting to 'rough it', but not too rough - ie. camper-van not tent)
The increasing Asian tourist dollar (and the way they travel not being at all aligned to what THL provide)
So what are peoples thoughts on any of this?
The lower NZD is good, and the even lower AUD even better, but I'm not sure whether or not that will translate into improved visitor numbers from the key European markets. One thing that is sure to help over the next couple of years is the Hobbit trilogy. I think these films do more to promote tourism to NZ than any number of marketing campaigns can.
A proper campervan holiday (self-contained, not just an old van with a mattress in the back) is not a cheap option for a driving holiday. It usually costs more than the rental car and motel/B&B alternative. I would question whether the campervan holiday is going to suit baby boomer retirees over the next few years, especially as it will be quite a task to keep all the components of an aging fleet up to scratch.
I agree that THL won't see much business from the increasing emerging markets sector (especially China). A recovery in European numbers is required, alternatively a bit more from trans-tasman and North America.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/bus...n-receivership
One less competitor - but clearly times are tough in the industry!
profit aouncement next month.., if it is so bad., should be a downgraded annoucement came already
I hate to say this but recent events aint good for companies like THL....I recall here in CHCH one damn bloody M Pajero stuck in a road hole collapse in ferrymead made world wide headlines.....but in reality it was more than likely it was the only bloody one vehicle that did so... in town..........cheers...I hate this
I hasten to add that had it not been for earthquakes....NZ....would not be here....
looks like the share price start to picking up
THL share prices starting to bounds back .., will be keep going up ..
here she goes..up up up
Agreed Belgarion. Nothing in the report for me to get excited about. Market sentiment might change with extra tourism spotlight come 2015 but that doesn't change the financials. Selling off of vans to decrease slightly I see too. A interesting company to study but not for me in the foreseeable future and I'm of the thinking this result was already echoed in the SP 3 months ago. Still have it 20-30% overpriced.
the worst had passed .., my target price will be at least 90c..after interim results
Big volume today - about 10 percent of the company shares have been traded
Yes, and the CEO is buying as well.
more to come.., i love it...
wow..what is the intention for milford..add to 14%stake.., with sterling., 17%..could almost prevoke a takeover bid
glad they don't have my kiwisaver .... but heck we all now own a bit through the NZ Super Fund
may have technically bottomed this week on a longer time frame
what a good run..., looks like a solid plateform for a takeover bid
move to the next target price of one dollar soon
I love your enthusiasm....enjoy the moment and I truly hope you do well...as I believe you have a few in THL...I just wish that El Zorro...has your good fortune
to be honest.., i have accumulating more than 500k of shares in THL.., average 65c.., looks like it pay off...what a fortune
I also wish you well. Cyclical company though so $1 might be a little steep at this point as volume tends to be pretty low. A lower NZ dollar might help you out a bit! Personally I can't invest in this company at the current price but here's hoping you have a good time with the sp increase
[QUOTE=benjitara;427561]I also wish you well. Cyclical company though so $1 might be a little steep at this point as volume tends to be pretty low. A lower NZ dollar might help you out a bit! Personally I can't invest in this company at the current price but here's hoping you have a good time with the sp increase[/QUOT
chairman is buying thl shares.., looks good at moment.., see if it can cross 80c next week.., once break that barrier will go straight to the dollar sign
volume not bad today.., at 80cents...
i am not a fan of any company i am here to see how i make better profit from each companies..that is my vision and i stick with it.., soon or later i will sell too., but at the right time right prices
at todays volume must someone is still accumulating.., still on the upward trends
Boom time ahead for tourism in NZ
http://www.westpac.co.nz/assets/Busi...ember-2013.pdf
Usually a bad sign for thl shareholders these sort of headlines
non sense ...it is all about the fundermental of the business.., a good headline will only become a good headline if the company it self is good
THL is on the upper trend at the moment.., targeting one dollar mark after AGM
Chinese visitors set to soar
By Grant Bradley
5:30 AM Thursday Sep 12, 2013 ✩Save
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China is NZ's second-biggest source of tourists and numbers are forecast to surge 46 per cent
Air New Zealand's billboards in China reflect a change in Chinese tastes towards activity-based holidays.
The number of Chinese tourists coming to New Zealand is forecast to surge by 46 per cent with an extra 100,000 visitors during the next year, according to a tourism research agency.
China is already New Zealand's second-biggest source of tourists with 225,000 arrivals during the past year, behind Australia with almost 1.2 million.
The China Outbound Tourism Research Institute has found that close to 38 million mainland Chinese travelled to other countries around the world in the first five months of the year, a 17 per cent increase on the same period last year.
The report found a change in Chinese consumption habits with more tourists wanting to travel independently rather than on tours, and a shift from sightseeing to activity-based holidays in which they would spend more money.
The institute's New Zealand representative, Zane Smith, said that was good news for this country but some tourism operators were not ready.
Infrastructure, including hotels, was lacking in some areas and New Zealand operators needed to tailor their attractions and service standards to meet the expectations of the Chinese market.
Just hope none of them drive on our roads.!
Good to see Air NZ marketing well in China. However, it is of concern that NZ has to date not capitalised on this trend in China and as a percentage of Chinese travelers, fewer of them are thinking of NZ as a destination. We may be increasing the numbers but not proportional to the increase in Chinese traveling overseas. So we are losing the battle. NZ needs to do better and I think our very restrictive Visa requirements for Chinese play a significant role in this.
Should we be surprised when the Chinese have the choice of many cheaper, closer destinations for their overseas experience?Quote:
We may be increasing the numbers but not proportional to the increase in Chinese traveling overseas.
No not at all. That's my point, a huge increase in tourist numbers from China does not automatically mean huge increases in Chinese tourist arrivals in NZ. NZ needs to continually work hard on marketing and providing the right and continually changing service to meet the demand.
Agree with belg that Chinese tourists will have a limited effect on THL. They still travel largely in organised tour groups.
[QUOTE=belgarion;430063]The Camper Van Holding Company isn't going to have too many Chinese driving their own campers. It's just not the way they holiday. If THL were to provide drivers and run "convoys" of 5-10 at a time then maybe - but it'll be a drop in the ocean. THL needs the Europeans and Ockers back (who are the major hirers) and that'll be a few years away yet.[/QUOTE
Belgarion the interesting fact I get from this report is that not only there are more Chinese tourist, but they are changing the way they have their holidays. Chinese are becoming more independent travellers like westerners and this should benefit THL in my opinion. The following sentence is a direct quote from the report.
"The report found
a change in Chinese consumption habits with more tourists wanting to travel independently rather than on tours, and a shift from sightseeing to activity-based holidays in which they would spend more money."
share price stablise at moment.., wait for the dividends..not bad yields
I can confirm (through my close involvement with the business in question, not employed by them personally) that numbers of Asian people hiring vans is on the way up. There has been a noticeable change in the number of Asian customers.
Disc: Not holding and will not be holding this stock at the current price.
consolidation week.., with dividends comming soon
up and up again..., what a good sign
nov AGM will be good..comments..around
here she goes again..up to 90c soon
someone is accumulating lots of THL shares at 80c..
breaks 81c now..will break out to a new high soon with good forecast on the way in agm
Yep going well at the mo eh
Would only be a recent high
Long. Way off the 270 odd that shareholders got offered by some Aussie outfit in 2007 o there abouts ...and was close to 400 .last century
And here's something to think about
The interislander ferry company is now no longer taking bookings for vehicles (still some capacity on Bluebridge ferries). It is unlikely that interislander will carry any more campers this summer season - the bluebridge will fill quite quickly once the general public understand the situation.
Given that a large number of European visitors "do" both islands, this shortage of capacity will have quite an effect on THL's summer season?
More importantly, THL doesn't seem to think that this situation merits a release to NZX, although they must be seriously concerned
2.70 will be a bit too far away to think of.., dollar mark is the potentail at present