BP, I was told that there wouldn't be any share movement until the first results were released/known and with todays movement the upcoming results must be known by insiders hence the todays movements = LEAKY BOAT, not good imo !!
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I am not surprised (still not even that close to Craig's price target)... when this listed, at an unusually low price (very close to the bottom end), with seemingly high demand, there was alot of skepticism from many on here (ironically some of them, now, hold) ... the whole PE thing (even though it wasn't a PE listing really), housing market slowing down, apparently unrealistic targets, the terrible top heavy management, the apparent wages debacle, even the 'industry insiders' on this thread didn't like it (like when ARV listed, and probably to busy buying sum other shares at $5.40), among many other things...
Here we are today barely 2 months on from OCA's listing day... how things have changed:t_up:
[sum other companies are trading 10% lower, while OCA is trading 10% higher]
Disclosure: happy holding since IPO day at 82 cents
I was all lined up to buy either these at $0.86 a pop or PPH at $1.65 ago last week and then unexpected circumstances got in the way.
Either way I would have done OK in the short-term.
So the $10,000 question is does $0.91 represent a safe entry point into this?
I will be at my abacus for the rest of the day trying to answer that one!
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Yeah I jumped on board at listing for 0.82, also wanted to top up last week for 0.86, cleared some funds but then left it a little too late.
Was trying to decide on topping up on OCA or SUM, ended up missing the opportunity for both.
Never too late if you know what to believe in
At present time OCA is trading at 91 cents.
The share price on the chart is in a very strong upward trend.
Craigs have at target price of 97 cents.
Most probably still the best value in the retirement sector.
Depending on the next announcement, I feel Craigs target price will be exceded in the not to distant future.
OK .. Rub it in percy.. I know I arrived a little late .86
Just being careful.. :-)))
Must admit I didn't feel the need to rush into this one... especially after ASB Securities shut me out at the IPO...
So have watched on the sidelines and finally jumped in last week at .86c...
Looking forward to being in for a long long time.....
Now just need to find that truck.... never mind some fuel :confused:
Hi All,
New to the Website, I have watched with great interest as this share has performed and enjoyed reading this thread. Looking forward to the results on the 27th if my memory serves me right.
I purchased with the IPO full allotment at 0.79c through Craigs (small parcel but decent enough for someone starting out). Target of 97c from Craigs and 95c from FNZC.
I also hold ETF's and contribute to Mygrowth through Craigs as well.
General question - does OCA have reinvestment program or will it be deposited in bank account?
Thanks and looking forward to reading and following the thread.
Welcome to the forum ... and looks like you timed your purchase well ;);
I don't think that OCA announced yet a DRP ... however - there will be plenty of time to subscribe if & when they do. No worries - just make sure Computershare have your up to date bank details (and that's as well the people who will offer you to choose a DRP if one is on offer).
Stupid question - do you intend to change your pen name when you are done with university :sleep:?
Hi BP,
Thanks for the update, will make sure to read all the docs as they are sent out!
Arh I am finished and recently qualified to boot. The name has always stuck on a few forums I have been in! Perhaps I could change to law master?
Cheers
So the key things we need to see from the results commentary is whether they are on track to complete the big increase in new units in FY18 over FY17 .....with higher development margins as well.
Not expecting to make any more profit from the care bit - FY18 depends on property development.
Looking forward - hope the share price is over a $1 by then
Thursday could be an exciting day .....esp as a bright outlook for F18 will signalled
Might need to 'top up' before then ....chance if missing out on the cheap ones if wait until Friday.
Ladies and Gentlemen - That was a most disingenuous post by Joshuatree. It should also be noted that I prefaced that comment with the disclaimer that "I'd prefer to see the full financials in detail" That post was made on 19 October 2014, approx. 2 1/2 years before the company was listed and its balance sheet could have been dramatically restructured in that time. Most people realise JT and myself don't have a great record of getting on well on this forum and this sort of deliberately calculated disingenuous post, (a blatant attempt to discredit / undermine and be argumentative) is a fine example of why.
In any boxing ring of decent reputation that would be ruled a low blow.
The threads are all there Roger. good to take responsibility for ones self and maybe review and correct as one goes if one knows how to review ones own actions.I hope you're not selling Roger ; following a tip off from your insider ahead of results? Pumping and dumping happens everywhere. I'm sensitive to any possible influencing by anybody on here and elsewhere one can't trust anybody but make ones own careful judgements. Still holding my full applications since IPO. Ive been consistent in my sentiment.
Strong buying right on close here in N Z , will it carry on in Aust for the next hour, ( TWT ) time will tell.
Big close on OCA today , I wonder if the momentium will continue into Aust for the next hour.
Very interesting bearing in mind that the full years ann is not due until Thurs 27 th July, theres more support to come if there is a "good news " leak from inside !
Post #162 by Roger / beagle day after IPO day (5/5/2017 11am) "You actually believe their forecast ? Don't you think its a little odd they'd bring this to market so close to their end of year for 31 May 2017 ? Guess why ? So they can say, look, we got that forecast right. It's the 40% growth in underlying earnings for FY18 that I for one am taking with a grain of salt. Call me a hardened cynic if you like, I don't honestly care but they've been trying for years to float this thing and if they hadn't of forecast 40% growth nobody would have been interested.
Huge vested interest to make that FY18 growth forecast ! Tegal or Feltex Mk2 in my opinion."
beagle, do you still believe they will miss their FY18 forecast?
For me, their commentary on FY18 will be more important than this years result (which should really be, as you have mentioned, in the bag)
(Disclosure: I have from day 1, which is also when I brought, as mentioned)
Hi All,
With results on Thursday, could I ask the main things that will continue growth?
Is it?
- 2018 Outlook? IE how many units / beds they will be looking to fill for the upcoming year? If yes, how do we gauge this, is it based on projections or demand? (As a side note, I hear them advertising on NEWSTALKZB from time to time for retirees).
-Progress of future developments?
Issues that reduce growth
- Impact of the pay rise rise from public to private sector. Has this flowed across to Oceania?
- Property market slowing down?
- Bit of an outsider, but could the change of govt effect OCA's future? IE TOP's equity party?
Also, with FY Results, is this when they announce upcoming DIV yield?
Thanks to any who answer. Still trying to become a 'novice trader'.
Dividend yield is not able to be announced. They can announce the amount of dividend they are going to pay and give some guidance to future payments but yield is a calculation of dividend versus share price and thus changes everytime the price of the share changes.
IPO forecasts deserve to be treated with extra special caution because companies have 1. No demonstrated listed track record upon which investors can assess the veracity of their previous forecasting and 2. IPO forecasts are made with the primary intention of attracting investors and therefore promotors have a huge vested interest in putting the brightest lipstick on.
IF they can prove up the veracity of their business model over the next 2-3 years there is the potential for a PE re-rating. I deemed it prudent to wait until after the IPO to see where the market really felt the stock and to see if an upward trajectory could be sustained. It back tested the IPO price and has moved up. IPO investors took an extra risk and in this case have earned an extra return to date however this isn't always the case. Risk and reward go hand and hand. I deem this unproven stock to be much riskier than a proven performer like SUM which is why I have significantly more capital invested in a well proven rapidly growing company like SUM.
I trust that answers your question TJ. I agree that the commentary will be more important than the result itself. We could in my opinion see it move up to a PE of about 12 over the next 12 months IF they prove up their forecast.
Hopefully $1 plus tomorrow - better to have a stock with $ signs in front of it's share pirice to give it greater credibility (punters wary of those priced just in cents?)
So with the expected good announcement on Thursday it should take off .....wonder how high!
Yeap...its still under $1 now so it's still really, really cheap
F18 earnings growth is to mainly driven by 1) new unit sales going from forecast 33 this year to 84 and 2) resales going from 87 to 113 .....along with improved development margins
Big growth numbers = big increase in share price
So Thursday we should see numbers close to the 33 and 87 stated above and close to forecast underlying ebitda of $44m and underlying npat of $33m
Then its all go for F18
Yeap Trader Jackson says its only on a PE of 9 so if they can progress their business plan as intended we could see it rerated up towards sector average PE quicker than maybe you or I even expect. A lot of potential that's for sure, lets hope they can crystalise that potential going forward.
Was listed at 9 yes, as mentioned on 14-07-2017, 06:26 PM (post 294) it finally made it past 10, still crazy low really.
Fast forward to today, another day of large volume, nobody selling till 97 cents
Some say tomorrow might be the last day OCA is under the dollar mark ;)
(Who are these crazy people still selling under $1?)
Below graphic is the 'promise' that Oceania have made for F18
After hardly growing ebitda in F17 it's going to skyrocket in F18 - as can be seen by selling heaps more new and used retirement units. Stuff all extra ebitda from looking after (care) oldies
Off course they will keep this 'promise' .....
going...going...
Seeing the listing was so close to the end of the financial year one would have to assume the f17 forecast in the IPO documents were well and truly locked away ....and with a few extra sales than anticipated in May and a bit of fine tuning around the edges of the accounts they will exceeded
So expect a good result tomorrow = gives management credibility and the market confidence PLUS indications if not an outright revised guidance that F18 will be as good as or much better than forecast = share price to rocket ahead
Yes t_j .......just imagine eh
Some sellers are raining on OCA's parade... must be a bit uneasy about tomorrows result.
On the flip side, they could be very disapointed they sold at 96 cents ish come this time tomorrow... some might say the sellers today at 96 cents might be a bit less 'well positioned' tomorrow.
The big day today. I've bought at 83 and 86 so it is now my biggest holding. Whatever the result I'll be drinking...
Exceeded IPO forecasts as expected
Company worth a lot more now -
In the year ended 31 May 2017, reported net profit after tax of $44.9m was ahead of the $25.3m forecast in the Company’s Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) due to a significant increase in the valuation of Oceania’s care and retirement village assets. Total assets increased by $135m to $918m following a material increase in development capital expenditure and acquisition of sites, and net debt fell to $84m (from $274m) resulting in low gearing of 15%.
Bloody high development margins - over 27% - wow
Hi All,
Winner69 - have results already been announced?
Yes - great presentation pack as well
Nothing can go wrong for F18
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262295.pdf
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262295.pdf
Have to say I am very very impressed. Key metric for me (cash flow is the lifeblood of business), operating cash flow $38.9m v IPO forecast $31.8m a substantial beat there.
Development margin is also deeply impressive.
NTA is 92 cps so SP only at a very small premium to NTA unlike some, (notice how I avoided using SUM) other companies in this sector.
As expected they have used the vast majority of IPO proceeds to dramatically reduce their gearing which is vastly changed from when this company originally was looking at floating in 2014. With their dramatically restructured balance sheet and very modest gearing they're extremely well positioned to execute and beat FY18 forecast in my opinion. I can see a significant expansion in the PE if they continue to execute well.
Winning the care award a very nice touch. Very happy to be on board buying at 82, 86, 89, 91 and 96 yesterday. Disc: Will buy lots more if this stays under $1.00 today.
Incredible result.
Development margin 24.4% as per page 16, or in plain language average devt margin per sale $100.4 k page 14.
Very depressing; w ere TJ and i two of very few taking up the IPO ; surely there must be more.? Be good to hear from you I know a few who sold and Im not trying to keep up with the toaster crowd (in and out and in agin?) and many more scared off?.I hope not.
Very very strong pipeline of consented developments augers extremely well for profit growth going forward.
I really need to learn how to read financial reports better. My basic 1c, profit seems to be up, EBIT above IPO forecast and revenue above forecast which should equate to higher price?? Occupancy seems good. However the thing that stuck most in my head was page 18 (story about the cat), good to see some positive stories coming out of the place.
Also like that they have a employee share scheme as well.
agree its good
exceeding forecast NPAT is mostly revals though..... (just sayin)
Well... this years results were even better than expected, which is a nice surprise given how close to end of financial year when they were listed.
I could go on about how great the operating cash flows are, how great the development pipleine is looking, the nice EBITDA etc etc (slide 4 of the results presentation is real nice by the way - although I did note expenses were a bit higher than expected...)
But I'll cut to the case... the words I liked most are "we are well placed to achieve our forecast in 2018 and continue to create long term value for our shareholders" you can almost smell the upgrade/beat of FY18 coming (not just profit wise, but dividend wise as well)
Maybe I was right that yesterday was the last chance you could buy these under $1? Todays results would certainly suggest it should be
Like it - looks like the market is opening above $1 (the morning auction sits currently at 101) and hardly any sellers up to 110. Could turn into an interesting day ...
Looks like holders just found another company helping them to be "well positioned" (Sorry, I know Percy should have said that ... but maybe he has?).
Can't understand people complaining that there are no bargains anymore on the NZX ...
Pretty impressive, wanted to see the results before jumping in. Now in before it jumps past $1.00.
Given SUM is being shorted and being pretty quiet, I've sold sum from SUM and diverted funds to OCA.
Well done on identifying the potential Trader_Jackson
Not a great response from MR Market - early days yet while the instos digest it and after lunch there should be better response , didn't hit $1.00 ( yet ) .99 high !
Is the current price already built into it ATM ?
Yep, took a fair bit of risk out of the equation eh ......the derisking cost minimal in the big picture.
Had to wait see what the sentiment really was around this stock, because as we know it's sentiment that really drives share price (often more so than company performance)
Nothing to stop punters getting even more positive over Oceania
I am surprised at the strength of the sellers, they've come out dumping (sort of)... clearly, missed the results announcement and just like the 'high' price.
No doubt they will dry up eventually, after all, you can only sell so much.
Asking a bit much guys...OCA has had a stella run since listing against the downtrending backdrop of the other healthcare providers..Some negative pressures out there atm ..flattening out of residential property prices...wage increases for healthcare workers...and not sure about building supply shortages causing delays which seems to be hitting some other building firms..We may see some Political bantering in this housing area as the election gets closer..these are all uncertainities......The sector RYM SUM MET all slightly down this morning...
Take the profit number subtract the property revaluations and you have a nice loss.
Can see why they needed to get the debt/interest payment down to make this look reasonable going forward.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Strip out revaluations and SUM made losses in the early days too when their SP was $1.40 ~ 5 years ago. Par for the course for a young company starting to get into their stride with developments activities.
Atleast the share price is ahead of what it was yesterday - that's good
Over 4m shares changed hands. Profit takers will run out of scrip soon enough, no worries.
Posted this back in the dark old days (early april) when all anyone and everyone (including the supposed insiders) were doing was talking about was how bad/inefficient management, how the wage rises are going to kill them, how they surely couldn't achieve what they had laid out in the PDS and a bunch of other things which seemed to be (pretty) fake news (later confirmed to be by the share price I suppose, now 23% ahead of IPO price in less than 3 months).
I saw an interesting slide (slide 6) that looked very similar to my analysis/assumptions, the numbers were not surprising I suppose, reconfirmed they are bang on track, what was surprising was this 'transformation' was signaled (and largely ignored) nearly 3 months ago... I just couldn't quite match OCA's pretty graph and stuff.
Great to be on board with 3198 other shareholders.
You're a legend tj; the real deal. Thanks for helping me and a few others making money, hats off.:t_up:
You have misunderstood page 14. Take the property revaluations out and you are back to a loss.
Then add in the expensed transaction costs and it is possibly break even.
tj - I got on the register today and I am in profit - but not enough to pay for drinks yet.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Head honcho Bill on radio this morning
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/playe...o_id=201852693
Talking off 300 plus new units in F18 which seems heck of a lot more than in IPO forecasts
And countless mentions of acquisitions because plenty of funds at their disposal (more debt t_j). People knocking their door say buy us etc.
Comfortable with F18 forecast - yes, we know what comfortable really means eh
Wow - have a listen to give you the warm fuzzies on a cold morning
Not enough fuel to back the truck up... Had to be satisfied with the boot of the Mini.. Now holding at ave .91
Disc Happy holder. Onwards and Upwards..
Thanks mate but not really an astute play, just simply risk mitigation. As mentioned before, no harm in letting an IPO find a floor and back test its IPO price and then build an uptrend and buy into that uptrend. Fact is this is FAR less risky than being an IPO investor and doubling down into that uptrend is still less risky in my opinion but generates superior profits as compared to a single shot IPO investment.
By way of illustration while watching CNBC the other day they noted that of recent IPO's in the States 4 out of 5 are now underwater.
All that said kudos to IPO investors who were fortunate enough to have a good relationship with their broker and get a decent allotment. I am happy for you and there's plenty of profit all round for everyone so lets all have a big group hug and be happy :D
Moving on...the IPO forecast is for 8.42 cps underlying profit for FY18. Initially I thought this might gain traction to a PE of 12 if they could hit that target and growth rate of 40% but after reviewing the result yesterday and reviewing their development margin and consented development pipeline I think this has the potential to grow to a PE of as much as 15 in its first year which sees my 1 year target price at 15 x 8.42 = $1.26.
Also worth noting with this one is the dividend yield. Based on 55% payout ratio stated in IPO doc's and 8.42 cps that's 4.63 cps and on 98 cps that gives a dividend yield of ~ 4.7% By way of illustration that's more than double RYM or SUM and the shares currently trade on a forward PE of 11.6, about half of RYM and 78% of SUM.
SUM have the proven track record though so are still my value pick for the sector but this horse looks like it might run pretty well too, (if they can prove they can execute well).
Mr Beagle said - not really an astute play, just simply risk mitigation.
Risk migration IS an astute play